Some Meteorological Characteristics of Significant Tornado Events
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FEBRUARY 2002 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE 155 Some Meteorological Characteristics of Signi®cant Tornado Events Occurring in Proximity to Flash Flooding JOSEPH A. ROGASH NOAA/NWS/Weather Forecast Of®ce, El Paso, Texas JONATHAN RACY NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma 9 February 2001 and 5 September 2001 ABSTRACT A study was performed to determine meteorological aspects of environments in which thunderstorms produced both strong or violent tornadoes and ¯ash ¯oods within a limited temporal and spatial domain. It was found that the overwhelming majority of these episodes occurred in the spring and summer months and during the afternoon and evening hours. In most instances, at least some of the tornadoes were present when ¯ash ¯ooding was in progress. The ambient environment usually included an air mass that exhibited both relatively high convective instability and abundant lower-tropospheric moisture, including an average most-unstable CAPE of 3200 J kg21 and mean surface dewpoint and precipitable water values of 708F (218C) and 41 mm (1.6 in.), respectively. Storm-relative helicity magnitudes indicated that the vertical wind shear ranged from marginally to moderately favorable for supercell formation in all cases. Surface patterns for each episode were generally similar to patterns earlier studies determined to be frequently attendant with ¯ash ¯ooding, in which preexisting surface boundaries acted to focus deep convection. Most events also occurred east of an approaching and well- de®ned upper-tropospheric trough and in the left-front or right-rear quadrant of an upper-level jet streak in which upward vertical motion is usually present. 1. Introduction strong and violent tornadoes and excessive rain pose an exceptional hazard to both life and property, the ability Deep convection and associated weather phenomena to anticipate and identify such multiphenomena events remain a forecasting challenge for operational meteo- is critical to the mission of operational meteorologists. rologists because of both the complexity of the atmo- Thus, this paper will investigate aspects of signi®cant spheric processes involved and the hazards posed to the tornado events (de®ned here as two or more F2 torna- community. In addition to lightning, ¯ash ¯ooding and does or at least one tornado of F3 strength or stronger) tornadoes account for nearly all fatalities and a major that occur in relatively close spatial and temporal prox- proportion of property damage associated with thun- imity to ¯ash ¯ooding or excessive rainfall. The me- derstorms across the United States. Statistics show that teorological characteristics of environments favorable for the period 1955±95, an annual average of 136 fa- for such incidents, including convective instability, at- talities were attributable to ¯ood events and 73 fatalities mospheric moisture content, and surface and upper-air were attributable to tornadoes (National Climatic Data patterns, will be examined and discussed. Center 1995). Therefore, thunderstorm complexes that produce signi®cant tornadoes with ¯ash ¯oods (here- inafter referred to as STF) within a limited time and 2. Methodology and data analyses area represent an extremely dangerous situation (Cor®di Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad- et al. 1990; Rogash and Smith 2000). ministration publication Storm Data, supplemented by Because convective systems conducive for both available hydrological and cooperative observer infor- mation, convective events from 1992 through 1998 were Corresponding author address: Joseph A. Rogash, National Weath- examined for all of the continental United States east er Service, 7950 Airport Rd., Santa Teresa, NM 88008. of 1008 latitude. [For studies concerning the unique E-mail: [email protected] problems in forecasting deep convection over the west- 156 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 17 TABLE 1. Temporal aspects of STF events including times of oc- currence and relative time of tornado development with respect to initial ¯ash ¯ood reports. Time of occurrence (LST) No. of events 0000±0600 3 0600±1200 4 1200±1800 14 1800±2400 13 Tornadoes developing and ending be- fore ¯ash ¯oods 9 (29%) Tornadoes developing before and con- tinuing during ¯ash ¯oods 11 (35%) Tornadoes developing after ¯ash ¯oods 11 (35%) FIG. 1. Monthly frequency distribution for all 31 signi®cant tor- sequently analyzed through the upper troposphere for the nadoes occurring with ¯ash ¯ood (STF) events between 1992 and area and times of interest. By combining the model in- 1998. formation with data obtained from the soundings and hour- ly surface observations, a vertical pro®le of wind velocity, temperature, and moisture was interpolated for each point ern United States, see Maddox et al. (1980) and Doswell at which F2 or stronger tornadoes ensued. In applying this (1980).] Selected cases include those with at least two methodology, it is believed a more representative tornado F2 tornadoes or at least one F3 or stronger tornado and proximity sounding is derived in comparison with that signi®cant ¯ash ¯ood reports with ¯ooding usually oc- obtained from using unmodi®ed soundings alone. In most curring over a minimum of three counties. In addition, instances, however, regularly or specially launched sound- for each event chosen, the tornadoes must exist within ings required only slight modi®cation. Each proximity 3 h (either before or after) and within a distance of 250 sounding was further analyzed in detail using an advanced km (160 mi) of the heavy rain events. For cases selected version of the SHARP workstation (Hart and Korotky with only F2 tornadoes, there must be at least two F2 1991), with parameters related to instability and wind shear tornadoes that 1) must occur within 250 km and3hof closely examined. In the calculation of instability param- the same ¯ash ¯ood reports and 2) must occur within eters, a virtual temperature correction was applied. 250 km of one another. Events associated with tropical With respect to the surface and upper troposphere, disturbances were not investigated. special attention was directed toward locating such fea- There was some subjectivity in selecting the ¯ash ¯ood tures as surface thermal±moisture boundaries, extra- cases because of the dif®culty in evaluating the quality tropical cyclone centers, low-level jets, and middle- and of information (Maddox et al. 1979, henceforth referred upper-tropospheric troughs and jet streaks. As discussed to as M79; Giordano and Frisch 1991). For this particular below, lower-tropospheric patterns associated with each study, signi®cant ¯ash ¯ood reports included water dam- episode were generally similar to patterns M79 found age to homes and businesses, widespread ¯ooding and attendant with ¯ash ¯ooding. Thus, patterns associated closures of roads and highways, river and stream over- with STF events in this study are categorized in a man- ¯ows that caused major disruptions, and rainfall amounts ner consistent with M79, although important variations of at least 75 mm (3 in.) in less than 6 h. In addition, to from their paradigm are also described and discussed. be selected for this study ¯ash ¯ood events had to include signi®cant reports in at least three counties. Because county size varies within different regions, another spatial 3. Environmental conditions and features requirement was at least two of the ¯ood reports must a. Temporal aspects have a distance separation of at least 75 km. For each case selected, surface, upper-air, and rawin- For the period 1992±98, there were 31 STF episodes sonde data were examined and analyzed to determine an- that meet met the time and space criteria de®ned above. tecedent conditions within3hoftheevolution of the STF The monthly distribution plot (Fig. 1) shows 25, or 81%, events occurring within the temporal and spatial proximity of these episodes evolved from April through July when of ¯ash ¯ooding that meets the requirements noted earlier. signi®cant tornado activity is normally at its peak. An For cases involving multiple tornadoes, data closest to the examination of actual time of occurrences (Table 1) in- most intense tornado(es) were considered. The construc- dicates the overwhelming number of cases occurred be- tion of proximity soundings ®rst involved an examination tween 1200 and 0000 LST, with several cases beginning of regularly scheduled or special radiosondes released during the afternoon and continuing into the evening. nearest to the tornadoes and within the air mass considered The order of occurrence of tornadoes relative to ¯ash to be most representative of the convective environment. ¯ood reports is also explored. As presented in Table 1, Six-hourly Eta and Rapid Update Cycle (RUC II) model for 11 cases (35%) strong or violent tornadoes ensued forecasts of wind, temperature, and moisture were sub- before but continued after the ®rst ¯ash ¯ood reports. FEBRUARY 2002 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE 157 TABLE 2. Mean environmental conditions and selected forecast conjunction with the high water vapor content in the parameters for all STF events. lower troposphere, suggests substantial lower-tropo- Parameter spheric moisture ¯ux. Also signi®cant is the mean west- 21 Wind (8/m s21) erly wind of 25 m s at 500 mb, which contributes to Surface 170/08 a composite antecedent vertical wind pro®le consisting 850 mb 210/18 of surface to midtropospheric wind speeds increasing 700 mb 240/20 and wind directions veering with height. 500 mb 240/25 From a storm-scale perspective, such a wind shear 250 mb 250/30 pro®le