Vers Une Transition Forestière En Thaïlande? Analyse Causale De L’Avancée Des Forêts À Partir Du Cas De Phetchabun

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Vers Une Transition Forestière En Thaïlande? Analyse Causale De L’Avancée Des Forêts À Partir Du Cas De Phetchabun Université de Montréal Vers une transition forestière en Thaïlande? Analyse causale de l’avancée des forêts à partir du cas de Phetchabun par Jean-Philippe Leblond Département de géographie Faculté des arts et des sciences Thèse présentée à la Faculté des arts et des sciences en vue de l’obtention du grade de Docteur en géographie Mai, 2011 © Jean-Philippe Leblond, 2011 Université de Montréal Faculté des études supérieures et postdoctorales Cette thèse intitulée : Vers une transition forestière en Thaïlande? Analyse causale de l’avancée des forêts à partir du cas de la Thaïlande Présentée par : Jean-Philippe Leblond a été évaluée par un jury composé des personnes suivantes : Claude Comtois, président-rapporteur Rodolphe De Koninck, directeur de recherche Steve Déry, membre du jury Guy Trébuil, examinateur externe Luc Brouillet, représentant du doyen de la FES i Résumé Selon des thèses développées au cours des années 1990 et 2000, le développement économique constitue à la fois la source et la solution aux problèmes environnementaux. Au sujet des forêts, les transitions forestières (c’est-à-dire le passage de la déforestation à la reforestation) documentées dans certains pays développés seraient causées par des dynamiques universelles intrinsèques au développement et à la modernisation des sociétés. Nos travaux ont porté sur l’application de cette vision optimiste et controversée à l’évolution des superficies forestières en Thaïlande. S’appuyant sur une recension de la littérature, sur des données secondaires ainsi que nos travaux de terrain dans la région de Phetchabun, la thèse offre les apports suivants. Elle démontre que contrairement à l’idée répandue en Thaïlande, le ralentissement de la déforestation a été suivi par une expansion forestière substantielle entre environ 1995 et 2005. Ce regain forestier est lié à la disparition presque complète de l’expansion agricole, à l’établissement de plantations sylvicoles et, surtout, à l’abandon de terres agricoles. Cet abandon agricole découle d’abord et avant tout de la faible et incertaine rentabilité de l’agriculture dans certaines zones non irriguées. Ce phénomène s’explique, entre autres, par la dégradation des sols et par l’incapacité des agriculteurs à contrer l’impact des transformations économiques internes et externes à la Thaïlande. L’accroissement de la pression de conservation n’a pu contribuer à l’expansion forestière que dans certains contextes (projets de reforestation majeurs appuyés par l’armée, communautés divisées, terres déjà abandonnées). Sans en être une cause directe, l’intensification agricole et la croissance des secteurs non agricoles ont rendu moins pénibles la confiscation et l’abandon des terres et ont permis que de tels phénomènes surviennent sans entraîner d’importants troubles sociaux. Dans un contexte d’accroissement des prix agricoles, notamment celui du caoutchouc naturel, une partie du regain forestier aurait été perdu depuis 2005 en raison d’une ré-expansion des surfaces agricoles. Cela illustre le caractère non permanent de la transition forestière et la faiblesse des mesures de conservation lorsque les perspectives de profit sont grandes. ii La thèse montre que, pour être robuste, une théorie de la transition forestière doit être contingente et reconnaître que les variables macro-sociales fréquemment invoquées pour expliquer les transitions forestières (ex. : démocratisation, intensification agricole, croissance économique) peuvent aussi leur nuire. Une telle théorie doit également prendre en compte des éléments d’explication non strictement économiques et souvent négligés (menaces à la sécurité nationale, épuisement des terres perçues comme arables et libres, degré d’attachement aux terres et capacité d’adaptation et résilience des systèmes agricoles). Finalement, les écrits sur la transition forestière doivent reconnaître qu’elle a généralement impliqué des impacts sociaux et même environnementaux négatifs. Une lecture de la transition forestière plus nuancée et moins marquée par l’obsession de la seule reforestation est seule garante d’une saine gestion de l’environnement en respect avec les droits humains, la justice sociale et le développement durable. Mots-clés : environnement, développement, transition forestière, déprise agricole, déagrarianisation, conservation des forêts, aires protégées, causalité, Thaïlande iii Abstract Recent popular ideas and theories portray economic development as both a cause and a solution to environmental degradation. Concerning forest cover, many authors view forest transitions (the passage from deforestation to reforestation) as resulting from near- universal causal dynamics linked to economic development. The thesis evaluates the validity of these controversial ideas and their relevance to the Thai case. Based on an analysis of secondary literature and official data as well as extensive fieldwork in Phetchabun region, the thesis makes the following points. Contrary to the dominant view, forest cover did expand significantly between ~1995 and 2005. Forest regrowth is linked to the near-interruption of agricultural expansion, the establishment of forest plantations, and, most importantly, agricultural abandonment. The latter derives first and foremost from the declining and currently uncertain profitability of agriculture in non- irrigated zones. These agricultural problems are linked to declining soil fertility and the incapacity of some farmers to counter the impact of rapid economic changes occurring within and outside Thailand. Conservation efforts contributed to forest expansion only in some contexts (ex.: military-backed projects, divided communities, land already abandoned). Agricultural intensification and the growth of non-agricultural sectors made land confiscation and agricultural abandonment less distressing and allowed these land transformations to occur without leading to major social troubles. Since 2005, part of the forest regrowth has been lost to the rubber boom. This illustrates both the potentially non- permanent nature of the forest transition and the limited power of forest conservation in the face of major politico-economic interests. A robust forest transition theory must be contextually-bounded and recognize that forest transitions can be encouraged, blocked or countered by the same frequently invoked macro-social variables: economic growth, agricultural intensification, and democratisation. It must also take into account neglected causal factors, such as geopolitical threats, the resilience of agrarian systems, the perception of land scarcity and the degree of attachment to the land and an agrarian life. Typically, social distress, violence and, in some cases, negative environmental impacts have accompanied forest transitions. Human rights, social iv justice and sustainable development principles require that a more nuanced view of forest transitions be adopted. Keywords : Environment, development, forest transition, agricultural abandonment, deagrarianisation, forest conservation, protected areas, causality, Thailand v Table des matières Mise en perspective de la thèse .............................................................................................. 1 Causes et solutions simplistes aux problèmes environnementaux : la thèse de la transition environnementale ............................................................................................................... 1 Le cas de la Thaïlande ........................................................................................................ 5 Objectifs général et spécifiques ......................................................................................... 6 Aperçu du cadre conceptuel et de l’approche méthodologique ......................................... 7 Quelques éléments du cadre conceptuel ........................................................................ 7 Sommaire de l’approche méthodologique ................................................................... 10 Aperçu du contenu de la thèse ......................................................................................... 14 PREMIÈRE PARTIE: LES FORÊTS ET LA THÈSE DE LA TRANSITION ENVIRONNEMENTALE : APPORTS ET CRITIQUES ................................................... 15 Chapitre 1 : Les courbes environnementales de Kuznets et les changements de couverture forestière ............................................................................................................................... 15 1.1 Trois corpus littéraires aux fortes similarités ............................................................. 15 1.2 Les courbes forestières de Kuznets : apports et critiques .......................................... 23 1.2.1 Méthodologie ...................................................................................................... 23 1.2.2 Résultats des modèles transnationaux et infranationaux ..................................... 32 1.2.3 Critiques méthodologiques ................................................................................. 35 1.2.4 Interprétations des CFK ...................................................................................... 42 Chapitre 2 : La littérature sur la transition forestière ........................................................... 49 2.1 Première composante : description de l’évolution du couvert forestier ..................... 50 2.1.1 Aspects méthodologiques.................................................................................... 50 2.1.2 Analyse des résultats
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