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The Foreign Policy Behaviour of Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan

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The Foreign Policy Behaviour of Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan The foreign policy behaviour of Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan Chiara Loda, BA, MA School of Law and Government Dublin City University Supervisor: Professor John Doyle December 2017 Dissertation submitted for the award of Ph.D. to Dublin City University I hereby certify that this material, which I submit for assessment on the programme of study leading to the award of PhD, is entirely my own work and has not been taken from the work of others save and to the extent that such work has been cited and acknowledged within the text of my work. Signature: Student number: 13211765 Date: i Table of Contents Acknowldgements .......................................................................................................................... v Abbreviation List ......................................................................................................................... vii Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... ix Introduction: Lilliputians dealing with Gulliver – Understanding foreign policy behaviour towards greater powers. A South Caucasian Perspective .............................................................. 1 CHAPTER 1: Foreign Policy and Small States in Context – Back to the Literature .................... 5 What is foreign policy? .............................................................................................................. 5 Foreign policy: domestic-focused approaches ........................................................................... 7 Foreign Policy and Regime Type............................................................................................. 10 Towards a corporate state agency ............................................................................................ 12 Reconciling domestic and international ................................................................................... 16 Small states and conceptualisation issues ................................................................................ 19 Small states: Why they are an elusive concept? ...................................................................... 21 Smallness: making it less elusive? ........................................................................................... 22 Small States, Foreign Policy and Regional Dimension: defining the relationship .................. 26 South Caucasus, structural asymmetry and strategic behaviour .............................................. 29 CHAPTER 2: Methodology ......................................................................................................... 33 Small states as strategic actors ................................................................................................. 34 Political discourse: a strategic tool vis-à-vis a certain audience? ............................................ 37 Strategic narratives, silences and context: the role of ‘political implicatures’ ......................... 40 Case selection........................................................................................................................... 42 Source selection ....................................................................................................................... 46 Interviews and fieldwork ......................................................................................................... 47 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 49 CHAPTER 3: Armenia – the East, the West and the Diaspora ................................................... 51 The great refusal: the Association Agreement and the Armenian U-Turn .............................. 53 Russia and Armenia ............................................................................................................. 54 Armenia and the EU ............................................................................................................. 59 The U-Turn reflected in the narrative .................................................................................. 64 The Bridge ........................................................................................................................... 68 The U-Turn: What conclusions? .......................................................................................... 70 ii The Armenian government discourse on the diaspora ............................................................. 71 Diaspora and motherland: a complicated relationship ......................................................... 72 The Armenian diaspora: the non-Western communities ...................................................... 75 The diaspora in presidential narratives ................................................................................ 76 Diaspora and economy ......................................................................................................... 79 The Armenian diaspora and the genocide recognition: an almost Turkish-blind narrative . 83 Karabakh: a vague mention.................................................................................................. 87 Discourse on the Diaspora and foreign policy: concluding remarks ................................... 89 Conclusion: Armenian foreign policy, complementarity and diaspora.................................... 90 CHAPTER 4: Georgia – Russia’s European Neighbour.............................................................. 93 The Russo-Georgian War ........................................................................................................ 95 Russia and Georgia before August 2008 .............................................................................. 96 The Georgian Narrative at War: Key Events ..................................................................... 101 The Russo-Georgian war: the political discourse .............................................................. 102 War-time friends? .............................................................................................................. 107 Forewords: the years after the war ..................................................................................... 110 The Russo-Georgian War: Conclusive remarks ................................................................. 112 I am Georgian, and therefore I’d like to travel (visa-free) to Europe. Georgia, Visa Policy and Foreign Policy ........................................................................................................................ 113 Visa Policies and Foreign Policy: Why does it matter? ..................................................... 114 Georgia, a European country by destiny and by choice ..................................................... 116 Georgia and visa regimes: signalling openness ................................................................. 118 Visa liberalisation with the EU: a long-term Georgian foreign policy goal ...................... 121 EU, Visa Liberalisation and Russia. Time to Deliver Something? .................................... 124 Visa and mobility regimes: concluding remarks ................................................................ 129 Conclusion: foreign policy, conflict and international mobility ............................................ 130 CHAPTER 5: Azerbaijan – a sui generis small state in the South Caucasus?........................... 132 TAP, TANAP and Shah Deniz II: Changing the Map of Europe, Keeping in Good Standing with Russia ............................................................................................................................. 135 Azerbaijan: Land of Fire, Oil and Gas ............................................................................... 136 Energy ties with the EU: between cooperation and asymmetry......................................... 139 The European countries: bilateral ties and alternative cooperation formats ...................... 142 Azerbaijan, Russia and Energy: Let Sleeping Dogs Lie .................................................... 146 Energy diplomacy: concluding remarks............................................................................. 151 iii Searching for a niche role? Public diplomacy, multiculturalism and consistency ................. 151 Public diplomacy: a softer attempt to readdress an imbalance?......................................... 153 Azerbaijan as organiser of international events and promoter of cultural activities .......... 154 The Public Diplomacy Message ........................................................................................ 159 Audience: Targeting the West ............................................................................................ 162 Targeting, not worshipping ................................................................................................ 165 Public Diplomacy: an inconsistent strategy? ..................................................................... 168 Conclusion: foreign policy, energy diplomacy and public diplomacy................................... 168 CHAPTER 6: Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 170 The state level ........................................................................................................................ 170 The region .............................................................................................................................
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