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VRIC Monitor | Potential Iranian Missile Transfer to Maduro As UN Arms Embargo Set to Lift

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VRIC Monitor | Potential Iranian Missile Transfer to Maduro As UN Arms Embargo Set to Lift VRIC Monitor | Potential Iranian missile transfer to Maduro as UN arms embargo set to lift Disclaimer: The VRIC Monitor does source a limited amount of media reports from state- owned or -controlled media outlets from VRIC nations. These media reports are carefully selected and solely intended to report on cultural, diplomatic, economic, or military activities that are not reported on by other media and relevant for understanding VRIC influence in the region. Given the inevitability that state propaganda will be mixed into these articles, we ensure that reporting from state-media outlets is no more than 20 percent of the overall VRIC Monitor and exclude any opinion pieces or anti-US (anti-West) declarations of any kind. OVERVIEW During a virtual forum at the Atlantic Council in mid-August, the head of U.S. Southern Command, Admiral Craig Faller, said Latin America was “under assault by a vicious circle of threats,” with external state actors as the center of gravity in the Venezuela crisis. Russia, Iran, and China’s role in propping up the Maduro regime has taken Venezuela’s humanitarian situation from a regional crisis to a looming international conflict. Last year, VRIC nations assembled in the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean to conduct joint naval exercises for the first time. This year, VRIC nations are signing landmark strategic cooperation agreements to solidify diplomatic and commercial partnerships as an extension of their military cooperation. While not perfect, this alignment is shifting the balance of power in Venezuela taking turns shoring up support for the Maduro regime. Since April, Iran has been the most forward-facing ally to Maduro, sending flights, fuel, food, and technicians to the country under the auspices of humanitarian aid and commercial cooperation. The dual-use nature of the Iranian state-owned or -controlled commercial entities involved, however, raises concerns that Iran’s feared clerical army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is entrenching itself in Venezuela. A concern highlighted by Colombian President Ivan Duque when claiming that the Maduro regime is looking to acquire missiles from Iran. As Venezuela’s Maduro regime consolidates its external support, the United States consolidates its strategy for the Americas. On 16-August, U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien announced the Western Hemisphere Strategic Framework, the Trump administration’s outlined policy priorities for the region. A key focus of the framework is “countering economic aggression and malign political influence” and “reaffirming the region’s commitment to democracy and rule of law.” The new framework was released as O’Brien, Adm. Faller, and other senior U.S. officials traveled to Panama and Colombia to shore up support and announce U.S. plans to move American manufacturers out of China | 1 VRIC Monitor | Potential Iranian missile transfer to Maduro as UN arms embargo set to lift and into Latin America and the Caribbean, bringing an estimated $30 to $50 billion in investment to the region. This is much-needed support, as the region faces a grim economic forecast of 9.4% contraction according to the International Monetary Fund and a shift towards more authoritarian policies. Bolivia’s exiled former President Evo Morales is threatening a comeback to the country; Venezuela is heading toward another sham election; Ecuador’s Rafael Correa has placed his name on the ballot as a vice-presidential candidate for the February 2021 election; and Nicaragua’s Ortega-Murillo regime is suppressing opposition forces, once again. Argentina and Mexico provide shadow support to the Bolivarian Network, while Russia, Iran, and China extend diplomatic reinforcement. China’s new national security law may begin to play an important role in consolidating authoritarian leaders in Latin America, with extradition under the new law threatening to punish dissidents against the Chinese Communist Party. MUST READS: Iran and Venezuela’s strategic challenge to sanctions by Joseph Humire, The Hill How likely is an Iranian missile transfer to the Maduro regime? interview of Joseph Humire, El Tiempo in Colombia (in Spanish) Venezuela is a threat to Latin America interview of Joseph Humire, CNN Español (in Spanish) Venezuela’s Crime-Terrorist Convergence by Jose Gustavo Arocha and Joseph Humire, Center for a Secure Free Society The Maduro Regime’s Illicit Activities: A Threat to Democracy in Venezuela and Security in Latin America by Douglas Farah, Atlantic Council How the US is shutting down Venezuela’s socialist-thug drug biz by Robert O’Brien, NY Post Debunking the Legal Argument Against a U.S. Snapback by Richard Goldberg, Foundation for Defense of Democracies The UN Insecurity Council by the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board Restoring democracy in Nicaragua: Escalating efforts against the Ortega-Murillo regime by Ryan C. Berg, American Enterprise Institute U.S. riots take a page from Latin American Socialist playbook by SFS Senior Fellow David Grantham, Breitbart News TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ON VENEZUELA WHITE HOUSE: Overview of Western Hemisphere Strategic Framework | 2 VRIC Monitor | Potential Iranian missile transfer to Maduro as UN arms embargo set to lift JUSTICE: Largest U.S. Seizure of Iranian Fuel from Four Tankers JUSTICE: U.S. Seizure of Three Websites Used by Iranian Front Company that Was Shipping Fuel on Four Tankers to Venezuela TREASURY: Treasury Designates Key Actors in Mahan Air Illicit Procurement Operations TREASURY: U.S. imposes sanctions on Venezuelan brothers over support for Maduro STATE: U.S. Relations With Venezuela STATE: Joint Declaration of Support for Democratic Change in Venezuela STATE: Public Designation of Former Officials of the Illegitimate Maduro Regime Due to Involvement in Significant Corruption STATE: The State Department Takes Action and Calls for Information To Bring Venezuelan National Maikel Jose Moreno Perez to Justice STATE: Briefing With Special Representative for Venezuela Elliott Abrams On Recent Developments in U.S.-Venezuela Policy SOUTHCOM: Venezuela’s Maduro at Center of ‘Vicious Circle of Threats’ SOUTHCOM: Telephonic Press Briefing with U.S. Southern Command’s Civilian Deputy to the Commander and Foreign Policy Advisor, Ambassador Jean Manes, and Director of Operations, Rear Adm. Andrew Tiongson ATLANTIC COUNCIL: Transcript: Countering the Maduro regime’s global web of illicit activities Previous VRIC Monitors detailed the arrival of fuel and food shipments from Iran to Venezuela. Of the ten vessels that sailed west with this cargo in May/June, only six arrived while four were stranded at sea. In mid-August, the U.S. seized the 1.1 million barrels of gasoline on the four Liberian-flagged tankers from Iran that never made it to Venezuela, in what the Justice Department called the largest seizure of Iranian fuel to date. The concern with these shipments to Venezuela is the dual-use nature of the Iran state-owned or - controlled commercial entities involved, all sanctioned by the U.S. for its ties to the Islamic | 3 VRIC Monitor | Potential Iranian missile transfer to Maduro as UN arms embargo set to lift Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Meanwhile, the Maduro regime’s special envoy to Iran, Alex Saab, continues battling a potential extradition to Florida where he is wanted for eight counts of money laundering. Saab’s legal team has almost exhausted all its arguments to free Saab from detention and avoid extradition, while the Cape Verde authorities have resisted any efforts to co-opt the judicial process by the Maduro regime or its allies. For instance, a letter written earlier in August by Saab himself to the Cape Verde Prime Minister asked for his release stating he has lost 20 pounds and offered a sort of soft bribe stating that Venezuela would offer Cape Verde “more opportunities” if authorities released him. “I can help Cape Verde more than the United States will do in 100 years,” Saab concluded in his letter. As external forces continue to exacerbate transregional threats in Latin America, the region remains vulnerable to destabilization efforts. In Venezuela, Interim President Juan Guaidó is attempting to unify opposition elements to hold a referendum instead of the Maduro-regime controlled parliamentary elections slated for December. Bolivia is in a state of chaos as Evo Morales and his proxies orchestrated protests and roadblocks impeding the delivery of oxygen to hospitals, in what was deemed as crimes against humanity. In Colombia, the house arrest of former President Alvaro Uribe has further polarized the country setting the stage for protests later in the year. Lastly, Nicaragua, too, is experiencing another round of crackdowns on opposition protests as the Ortega-Murillo regime exerts its authoritarian control. The Maduro regime announced it would free 110 political opponents, some of whom have been in detention for months. Communications Minister Jorge Rodríguez said Nicolás Maduro had issued a decree to that effect which would come into force immediately. – Yahoo News on 01-SEPT A former Venezuelan oil official fled the country and is talking to U.S. authorities about aiding their investigation of a high-level corruption scheme that helped plunge the oil- rich nation into an economic meltdown. – Bloomberg on 31-AUG Venezuela’s Cardon refinery has stopped producing gasoline because its reformate unit has shut down, according to a union leader and two other people with knowledge of the situation. – Reuters on 30-AUG A Colombian businessman detained in Cape Verde in June was on a mission to Iran as a special envoy of Maduro to negotiate fuel and humanitarian supplies at the time of his arrest. – Reuters on 28-AUG Venezuelan officials are denouncing people who may have come into contact with the coronavirus as “bioterrorists” and urging their neighbors to report them. The government is detaining and intimidating doctors and experts who question the | 4 VRIC Monitor | Potential Iranian missile transfer to Maduro as UN arms embargo set to lift president’s policies on the virus.
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