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A WAY FORWARD with IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy
A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 Cover photo: Associated Press Photo/Photographer: Mohammad Berno 2 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures 5 Key Findings 6 How Did We Reach This Point? 7 Roots of the U.S.-Iran Relationship 9 The Results of the Maximum Pressure Policy 13 Any Change in Iranian Behavior? 21 Biden Administration Policy and Implementation Options 31 Conclusion 48 Contributors 49 About The Soufan Center 51 3 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BPD Barrels Per Day FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization GCC Gulf Cooperation Council IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IMF International Monetary Fund IMSC International Maritime Security Construct INARA Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act INSTEX Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC-QF Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Qods Force JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action MBD Million Barrels Per Day PMF Popular Mobilization Forces SRE Significant Reduction Exception 4 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Iran Annual GDP Growth and Change in Crude Oil Exports 18 Figure 2: Economic Effects of Maximum Pressure 19 Figure 3: Armed Factions Supported by Iran 25 Figure 4: Comparison of Iran Nuclear Program with JCPOA Limitations 28 5 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. -
The National Security Council and the Iran-Contra Affair
THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL AND THE IRAN- CONTRA AFFAIR Congressman Ed Jenkins* and Robert H. Brink** I. INTRODUCTION Early in November of 1986, newspapers in the United States carried the first reports that the United States government, in an effort to gain release of United States citizens held hostage by terrorists in Lebanon, had engaged in a covert policy of supplying arms to elements within Iran.' Later in that month, following a preliminary inquiry into the matter, it was revealed that some of the funds generated from those arms sales had been diverted to support the "Contra" 2 forces fighting the Sandinista government in Nicaragua. The events giving rise to these disclosures became known collectively as the "Iran-Contra Affair." Both elements of the affair raised serious questions regarding the formulation and conduct of our nation's foreign policy. In regard to the Iranian phase of the affair, the Regan administration's rhetoric had placed the administration firmly in op- position to any dealings with nations supporting terrorism, and with Iran in particular.' In addition, the United States had made significant * Member, United States House of Representatives, Ninth District of Georgia. LL.B., University of Georgia Law School, 1959. In 1987, Congressman Jenkins served as a member of the House Select Committee to Investigate Covert Arms Transactions with Iran. ** Professional Staff Member, Committee on Government Operations, United States House of Representatives. J.D., Marshall-Wythe School of Law, College of William and Mary, 1978. In 1987, Mr. Brink served as a member of the associate staff of the House Select Committee to Investigate Covert Arms Transactions with Iran. -
Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 12/07/2020 9:54:33 AM
Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 12/07/2020 9:54:33 AM Friday 12/04/20 This material is distributed by Ghebi LLC on behalf of Federal State Unitary Enterprise Rossiya Segodnya International Information Agency, and additional information is on file with the Department of Justice, Washington, District of Columbia. ‘Stand Our Ground’: US Lawmakers Call to Resist Chinese Communist Party’s ‘Quest to Exert Dominance’ by Morgan Artvukhina Top US intelligence officials have sounded the alarm in recent days about the supreme danger posed by China and the Communist Party of China to the United States. While their rhetoric casts the US as a victim of China’s unfair rise, in reality the US’ climb to world leadership was helped by its own sabotage of Chinese development. In a joint statement on Friday. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence acting Chairman Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Vice Chairman Mark Warner (D-VA) said they agree with US Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe “that China poses the greatest national security threat to the United States. Our intelligence is clear: the Chinese Communist Party will stop at nothing to exert its global dominance.” The day prior, Ratcliffe penned an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal in which he argued that “the People’s Republic of China poses the greatest threat to America today, and the greatest threat to democracy and freedom world-wide since World War II.” Ratcliffe claimed “Beijing intends to dominate the US and the rest of the planet economically, militarily and technologically” through a vast espionage plan to steal intellectual property from the US, replicate the technology, then edge those same firms out of the market - a strategy he called “rob, replicate and replace.” Ratcliffe’s article isn’t limited to attacking the Communist Party of China, however: he also warns of the dangers “Chinese nationals” pose to intellectual property and to “research and development secrets,” noting the FBI is “frequently arresting” them. -
Sponsored by Event Partner
Sponsored by Event Partner: 1 Contents Agenda .................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Sponsored by: Welcome from Sir Trevor Chinn, CVO ........................................................................................................... 6 Welcome from Hugo Bieber ..............................................................................................................................7 Speaker biographies Keynote Speaker - Ambassador Dan Gillerman ................................................................................. 8 Keynote Speaker - Sir Ronald Cohen .................................................................................................... 9 Event Partner: Panel: Israeli Investment Opportunity Landscape ............................................................................ 10 Panel: UK Investor Perspectives ............................................................................................................ 12 Private Equity Opportunities In Israel ........................................................................................................... 14 The Concentration Law .................................................................................................................................... 16 Israeli Private Equity Funds ranked by Capital Raised 1996-2013 ..........................................................24 Organised by: 3 Agenda 08:30 – -
The Forgotten Story of the Mizrachi Jews: Will the Jews of the Middle East Ever Be Compensated for Their Expulsion from the Arab World?
Buffalo Public Interest Law Journal Volume 23 Article 4 9-1-2004 The Forgotten Story of the Mizrachi Jews: Will the Jews of the Middle East Ever Be Compensated for Their Expulsion from the Arab World? Joseph D. Zargari Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.law.buffalo.edu/bpilj Part of the Human Rights Law Commons, and the International Law Commons Recommended Citation Joseph D. Zargari, The Forgotten Story of the Mizrachi Jews: Will the Jews of the Middle East Ever Be Compensated for Their Expulsion from the Arab World?, 23 Buff. Envtl. L.J. 157 (2004). Available at: https://digitalcommons.law.buffalo.edu/bpilj/vol23/iss1/4 This Comment is brought to you for free and open access by the Law Journals at Digital Commons @ University at Buffalo School of Law. It has been accepted for inclusion in Buffalo Public Interest Law Journal by an authorized editor of Digital Commons @ University at Buffalo School of Law. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE FORGOTTEN STORY OF THE MIZRA CHI JEWS: WILL THE JEWS OF THE MIDDLE EAST EVER BE COMPENSATED FOR THEIR EXPULSION FROM THE ARAB WORLD? Joseph D. Zargarit Introduction When people think of the refugee situation in the Middle East, they often think of the Palestinian refugees of the West Bank and Gaza. Their situation has been studied, written about, and debated throughout much of the world. What is often forgotten, however, is the story of another group of refugees in the Middle East that were displaced around the same time as the Palestinian refugees. -
Israel: Background and U.S. Relations in Brief
Israel: Background and U.S. Relations in Brief Updated January 27, 2021 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R44245 SUMMARY R44245 Israel: Background and U.S. Relations in Brief January 27, 2021 The following matters are of particular significance to U.S.-Israel relations. Jim Zanotti Domestic issues: March 2021 election. After the collapse of its power-sharing Specialist in Middle government in December 2020, Israel is scheduled to hold another election for its Eastern Affairs Knesset (parliament) on March 23, 2021. The election will be Israel’s fourth in the past two years—a frequency without parallel in the country’s history. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has managed to maintain power despite an ongoing criminal trial on corruption charges that is set to resume in February 2021. Netanyahu apparently hopes to create a coalition government that will grant him legal immunity or to remain indefinitely as caretaker prime minister (as he did from December 2018 to May 2020) by preventing anyone from forming a coalition without him and his Likud party. Palestinians and Arab state normalization. On the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Trump Administration policies largely sided with Israeli positions, thus alienating Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Chairman and Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas. In the second half of 2020, the Administration pivoted from its January 2020 Israeli-Palestinian peace proposal to helping Israel reach agreements—known as the Abraham Accords—on normalizing its relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. In connection with its deal with the UAE, Israel agreed in August 2020 to suspend plans to annex part of the West Bank, though announcements related to settlement activity have accelerated since then. -
The Israel Defense Force's Innovations Against Hybrid
MEETING THE HYBRID THREAT: THE ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCE’S INNOVATIONS AGAINST HYBRID ENEMIES, 2000-2009 A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Security Studies By Eleazar S. Berman, B.A. Washington, DC April 16, 2010 Copyright 2010 by Eleazar S. Berman All Rights Reserved ii MEETING THE HYBRID THREAT: THE ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCE’S INNOVATIONS AGAINST HYBRID ENEMIES, 2000- 2009 Eleazar S. Berman, B.A. Thesis Advisor: Jennifer E. Sims, Ph.D. ABSTRACT The 2006 war between Hizbullah and Israel attracted great interest within the American defense community, awakening it to the challenges of “hybrid warfare”. The Israel Defense Force, considered an innovative military, has been working to adapt to Hizbullah and Hamas, both dangerous hybrid organizations. This study explores IDF innovations in two periods, from May 2000- August 2006, the end of the Second Lebanon War, and from August 2006- January 2009, the end of Operation Cast Lead. It gives a history of the campaigns against Hizbullah and Hamas, then details the most important innovations over the two periods. Developing a new analytical framework, this work examines the pressures on and incentives for military innovation in the international, civil/military, organizational, and cultural planes. Finally, the implications of the innovations on military effectiveness are explored. This paper concludes that the perception of failure in 2006 caused the military and civilian leadership to appreciate the same hybrid threat, and this was the main factor enabling the IDF to innovate successfully after the Second Lebanon War. -
DCCA Opinion No. 91-BG-1518: in Re Elliott Abrams
Notice: This opinion is subject to formal revision before publication in the Atlantic and Maryland Reporters. Users are requested to notify the Clerk of the Court of any formal errors so that corrections may be made before the bound volumes go to press. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COURT OF APPEALS No. 91-BG-1518 IN RE ELLIOTT ABRAMS, RESPONDENT, A Member of the Bar of the District of Columbia Court of Appeals On Report and Recommendation of the Board on Professional Responsibility ON REHEARING EN BANC (Reargued En Banc May 7, 1996 Decided February 5, 1997) Charles J. Cooper, with whom William L. McGrath was on the brief, for respondent. Michael S. Frisch, Assistant Bar Counsel, with whom Leonard H. Becker, Bar Counsel, and Julia L. Porter, Assistant Bar Counsel, were on the brief, for the Office of Bar Counsel. Before WAGNER, Chief Judge, and FERREN, TERRY, STEADMAN, SCHWELB, FARRELL, KING, RUIZ, and REID, Associate Judges. Opinion for the court by Associate Judge SCHWELB. Concurring opinion by Associate Judge SCHWELB, with whom Associate Judges FERREN and FARRELL join, at p. __. Concurring opinion by Associate Judge KING at p. __. Concurring opinion by Associate Judge RUIZ at p. __. Dissenting opinion by Associate Judge TERRY, with whom Chief Judge WAGNER and Associate Judges STEADMAN and REID join, at p. __. SCHWELB, Associate Judge: This matter is before us on the recommendation of the Board on Professional Responsibility that Elliott Abrams, Esq., a member of our Bar, and formerly Assistant Secretary of State for Inter-American Affairs, be suspended from the practice of law in the District of Columbia for a period 2 of one year. -
Israeli Election Bulletin | January 15
Israeli Election Bulletin | January 15 On 23 December 2020 the Knesset was automatically dissolved after the national unity government failed to pass a 2020 state budget. The election will be held on 23 March 2021. For more background on the collapse of the coalition, watch BICOM Director Richard Pater and read this BICOM Morning Brief. BICOM's Poll of Polls Aggregate Polling January 5-15 Many parties such as Momentum, Labour, Veterans, New Economy and Telem are polling under the electoral threshold Two others, Blue and White and Religious Zionism, are polling very close to the threshold (4 seats). If either of them were to fall under it, it would signicantly aect the ability of Netanyahu or his opponents to form a coalition 1/11 Splits, Mergers and Acquisitions We are now in the rst stage of the election process. Over the coming three weeks, politicians will start jockeying for their places ahead of the formation of the party lists that need to be submitted by 4 February. Party size and where they stand on major political issues Political Cartoons Maariv 23.12.20 Santa delvers ballot boxes and 21.12.20 Yediot Ahronot The new mutation. A two headed Gideon Saar and Naftali Bennett chase Gantz and Netanyahu Israel Hayom 24.12.20 “The clothes have no emperor,” the briefcase says Blue and White, looking on former number 2 and 3 in the party. Justice Minister Avi Nissenkorn who quit shortly after the government fell to join the Ron Huldai’s the Israelis Party and Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi who will see out his role but not stand in the coming election. -
Congressional Record—House H2616
H2616 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD — HOUSE March 15, 2007 b 1715 peace or stability in Iraq or Iran with- and the British), began running a similar op- out addressing the Palestinian-Israeli eration, aimed at avoiding congressional USING CONSTRUCTIVE ENGAGE- scrutiny or public accountability of any sort, MENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST issue openly, honestly and urgently. The issues of the Middle East are in- out of Vice President Dick Cheney’s office. The SPEAKER pro tempore (Mrs. They dipped into ‘‘black pools of money’’, extricably interconnected, and no one possibly stolen from the billions of Iraqi oil BOYDA of Kansas). Under a previous understands that better than Speaker order of the House, the gentleman from dollars that have never been accounted for PELOSI. At a time when the White since the US occupation began. Washington (Mr. MCDERMOTT) is recog- House prefers to choose sides, our dis- Some of these funds, as well as Saudi ones, nized for 5 minutes. tinguished leader prefers to pursue were evidently funneled through the embat- Mr. MCDERMOTT. Madam Speaker, peace in the Middle East, demanding tled, Sunni-dominated Lebanese government you don’t negotiate with the barrel of diplomacy aimed at achieving peace of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora to the sort a gun, but that seems to be the Presi- of Sunni jihadist groups (‘‘some sympathetic through social and economic justice for to al-Qaeda’’) whose members might nor- dent’s strategy with respect to Iran. all. That is why the House must legislate mally fear ending up in Guantanamo and to It is the kind of vision the whole a group, or groups, associated with the fun- to ensure that the President cannot world has passionately embraced before damentalist Muslim Brotherhood. -
Geopolitics of the Iranian Nuclear Energy Program
Geopolitics of the Iranian Nuclear Energy Program But Oil and Gas Still Matter CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES A Report of the CSIS Energy and National Security Program 1800 K Street, NW | Washington, DC 20006 author Tel: (202) 887-0200 | Fax: (202) 775-3199 Robert E. Ebel E-mail: [email protected] | Web: www.csis.org March 2010 ISBN 978-0-89206-600-1 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & Ë|xHSKITCy066001zv*:+:!:+:! CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Geopolitics of the Iranian Nuclear Energy Program But Oil and Gas Still Matter A Report of the CSIS Energy and National Security Program author Robert E. Ebel March 2010 About CSIS In an era of ever-changing global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decision- makers. CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, CSIS was dedicated to the simple but urgent goal of finding ways for America to survive as a nation and prosper as a people. Since 1962, CSIS has grown to become one of the world’s preeminent public policy institutions. Today, CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. More than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated scholars focus their expertise on defense and security; on the world’s regions and the unique challenges inherent to them; and on the issues that know no boundary in an increasingly connected world. -
The Bennett-Lapid ‘Change Government’
BICOM Briefing The Bennett-Lapid ‘Change Government’ June 2021 The Bennett-Lapid ‘Change Government’ On Wednesday evening, 2 June, Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid informed President Rivlin that he had succeeded in forming a coalition government, adding that it would “work for all the citizens of Israel, those that voted for it and those that didn’t. It will do everything to unite Israeli society”. Swearing the new government into office, which only requires only a relative majority, will take place within the next 11 days. Yamina’s Naftali Bennett will serve as Prime Minister for the first two years, followed by Lapid. Maariv 1 June, Bennett and Lapid stare lovingly at eachother as the sun – with the face of Netan- yahu sets The Change Government How did we get here? The elections for the 24th Knesset which took place on 23 March 2021 gave neither the pro-Netanyahu bloc nor the anti-Netanyahu bloc a clear majority of 61 seats. Following the results, two parties who defined themselves as unaligned were considered to be key to both sides - Naftali Bennett of Yamina (7 seats) and Mansour Abbas of Raam (4 seats). Bennett emphasised his preference for a right-wing and ultra- Orthodox coalition. When Likud sources sent out feelers to Raam to support the government from outside 2 the coalition, that move was opposed by Bezalel Smotrich and his Religious Zionist party. With Saar unwilling to sit with Netanyahu, and Smotrich unwilling to countenance outside support from Raam, the pro-Netanyahu right-wing/ultra-Orthodox coalition could only muster 59 seats.