Cost of Capital Study Liquid Petroleum 2007 Assessment Year
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Washington State Department of Revenue Cost of Capital Study Appendix C 2007 Assessment Year Industry: Liquid Petroleum Reference Equity: Yield Capitalization Page CAPM (Ex Post) 8.72% 5 CAPM (Ex Ante) 8.30% 6 Dividend Growth Models Value Line, based on Dividends Growth Multi Stage 11.50% 7 Value Line, based on Earnings Growth Multi Stage 9.50% 8 Standard & Poor's based on Earnings Growth Multi Stage 10.50% 9 Yield Equity Component 10.00% Debt: Debt Rate 6.50% 11a Industry Market Capital Structure Equity 70% x 10.00% = 7.00% 3 Debt 30% x 6.50% x (1-.35) = 1.27% 3 Marginal Tax Rate 35% Weighted Average Cost of Capital: 8.27% Page 1 Washington State Department of Revenue Support for Guideline Companies Liquid Petroleum 2007 Assessment Year Industry Overall P/E Div'd Long Term Pref Com Company Name Ticker Beta Ratio Yield Debt Stock Stock BP plc bp 0.95 11.0 3.5% 10.0% 90.0% Chevron Corp cvx 0.90 8.9 2.8% 13.0% 87.0% ConocoPhillips cop 0.95 6.7 2.1% 26.0% 74.0% Exxon Mobil xom 0.90 12.3 1.7% 5.0% 95.0% Frontier Oil Corp fto 1.00 10.9 0.4% 18.0% 82.0% Hess Corp hes 0.95 9.5 0.8% 33.0% 67.0% Holly Corp hoc 0.90 13.9 0.6% 0.0% 100.0% Marathon Oil Corp mro 1.00 8.2 1.7% 18.0% 82.0% Murphy Oil mur 1.00 15.2 1.1% 16.0% 84.0% Occidental Petroleum oxy 1.00 9.7 1.7% 13.0% 87.0% Royal Dutch Shell rds-a 1.00 10.6 3.6% 7.0% 93.0% Sunoco Inc sun 1.05 8.3 1.5% 38.0% 62.0% Tesoro Corp tso 1.55 8.5 0.6% 30.0% 70.0% Total S A tot 1.00 10.8 3.3% 24.0% 76.0% Valero Energy vlo 1.25 7.9 0.6% 21.0% 79.0% Mean 1.03 10.2 1.7% 18% 82% Selected Comparables P/E Div'd Long Term Pref Com Company Name Ticker Beta Ratio Yield Debt Stock Stock Buckeye Partners bpl 0.75 16.4 7.1% 55.0% 0.0% 45.0% Enbridge Energy Ptnrs eep 0.65 7.3% 49.0% 0.0% 51.0% Kinder Morgan Energy Ptnrs kmp 0.70 23.2 7.0% 53.0% 0.0% 47.0% Plains All American paa 0.75 6.4% 39.0% 2.0% 59.0% Teppco Partners tpp 0.70 21.4 7.0% 52.0% 0.0% 48.0% Valero, LP vli 0.50 6.3% 38.0% 0.0% 62.0% Mean 0.68 20.33 6.9% 48% 0% 52% source: Value Line December 15, 2006 Page 2 Washington State Department of Revenue Support for Capital Structure (based on Market Value) Liquid Petroleum 2007 Assessment Year Industry Overall $Stock$ Common Common Preferred Long Term $ Total $ Company Name Ticker Average Shares $ Stock $ % $ Stock $ % $ Debt $ % Debt & Equity BP plc bp 67.158 19,815,830,000 1,330,791,511,140 99.2% 20,500,000 0.0% 10,400,000,000 0.8% 1,341,212,011,140 Chevron Corp cvx 69.703 2,197,782,109 153,192,006,344 93.7% - 0.0% 10,341,000,000 6.3% 163,533,006,344 ConocoPhillips cop 64.303 1,645,769,817 105,827,936,543 81.7% - 0.0% 23,700,000,000 18.3% 129,527,936,543 Exxon Mobil xom 73.105 5,832,488,445 426,384,067,772 98.5% - 0.0% 6,464,000,000 1.5% 432,848,067,772 Frontier Oil Corp fto 29.393 110,331,402 3,242,970,899 95.6% - 0.0% 150,000,000 4.4% 3,392,970,899 Hess Corp hes 45.895 281,157,915 12,903,742,509 74.5% 675,000,000 3.9% 3,746,000,000 21.6% 17,324,742,509 Holly Corp hoc 49.775 56,144,479 2,794,591,442 100.0% - 0.0% nil nmf 2,794,591,442 Marathon Oil Corp mro 88.053 351,520,042 30,952,394,258 90.6% - 0.0% 3,230,000,000 9.4% 34,182,394,258 Murphy Oil mur 50.390 187,057,469 9,425,825,863 92.3% - 0.0% 789,500,000 7.7% 10,215,325,863 Occidental Petroleum oxy 48.415 841,083,197 40,721,042,983 93.5% - 0.0% 2,847,000,000 6.5% 43,568,042,983 Royal Dutch Shell rds-a 69.150 3,168,150,000 219,077,572,500 96.6% - 0.0% 7,665,000,000 3.4% 226,742,572,500 Sunoco Inc sun 64.892 123,117,290 7,989,327,183 86.1% - 0.0% 1,285,000,000 13.9% 9,274,327,183 Tesoro Corp tso 65.380 68,567,483 4,482,942,039 81.2% - 0.0% 1,041,000,000 18.8% 5,523,942,039 Total S A tot 69.112 2,294,600,000 158,584,395,200 90.7% - 0.0% 16,243,000,000 9.3% 174,827,395,200 Valero Energy vlo 52.670 604,618,162 31,845,238,593 86.9% - 0.0% 4,815,000,000 13.1% 36,660,238,593 Mean: 90.7% 0.3% 9.7% Weighted Mean: 2,538,215,565,266 96.5% 695,500,000 0.0% 92,716,500,000 3.5% 2,631,627,565,266 Median: 92.3% 0.0% 8.5% Estimated: 90% 0% 10% 100% source: Value Line December 15, 2006 & 10-K Selected Comparables $Stock$ Common Common Preferred Long Term $ Total $ Company Name Ticker Average Shares $ Stock $ % $ Stock $ % $ Debt $ % Debt & Equity Buckeye Partners bpl 45.297 39,675,660 1,797,175,146 64.7% - 0.0% 981,100,000 35.3% 2,778,275,146 Enbridge Energy Ptnrs eep 52.670 77,161,604 4,064,101,683 67.4% - 0.0% 1,961,400,000 32.6% 6,025,501,683 Kinder Morgan Energy kmp 46.405 229,234,232 10,637,614,536 70.6% - 0.0% 4,431,500,000 29.4% 15,069,114,536 Plains All American paa 48.948 80,994,178 3,964,530,023 76.1% 46,800,000 0.9% 1,200,400,000 23.0% 5,211,730,023 Teppco Partners tpp 39.338 75,713,554 2,978,445,025 66.9% - 0.0% 1,472,100,000 33.1% 4,450,545,025 Valero, LP vli 54.140 46,809,749 2,534,279,811 68.3% - 0.0% 1,178,500,000 31.7% 3,712,779,811 Mean: 69.0% 0.1% 30.9% Weighted Mean: 25,976,146,223 69.7% 46,800,000 0.1% 11,225,000,000 30.1% 37,247,946,223 Median: 67.9% 0.0% 32.1% Estimated: 70% 0% 30% 100% Page 3 Washington State Department of Revenue Support for Market Multiples Liquid Petroleum 2007 Assessment Year Industry Overall $Stock$ Cash Div'ds Cap'l Book Company Name Ticker Average Rev's Multiple Flow Multiple Earnings Multiple Decl'd Multiple Spend Multiple Value Multiple BP plc bp 67.158 83.10 0.81 9.55 7.03 6.50 10.33 2.30 29.20 4.60 14.60 25.90 2.59 Chevron Corp cvx 69.703 98.50 0.71 10.85 6.42 8.10 8.61 2.01 34.68 6.80 10.25 31.15 2.24 ConocoPhillips cop 64.303 116.40 0.55 13.25 4.85 10.40 6.18 1.44 44.65 5.15 12.49 42.70 1.51 Exxon Mobil xom 73.105 59.30 1.23 8.50 8.60 6.40 11.42 1.28 57.11 3.05 23.97 20.25 3.61 Frontier Oil Corp fto 29.393 45.00 0.65 3.85 7.63 3.45 8.52 0.10 293.93 1.65 17.81 6.75 4.35 Hess Corp hes 45.895 87.55 0.52 9.25 4.96 5.80 7.91 0.40 114.74 8.25 5.56 25.00 1.84 Holly Corp hoc 49.775 70.10 0.71 5.05 9.86 4.15 11.99 0.29 171.64 2.15 23.15 8.95 5.56 Marathon Oil Corp mro 88.053 178.15 0.49 17.25 5.10 13.10 6.72 1.53 57.55 10.50 8.39 43.30 2.03 Murphy Oil mur 50.390 74.45 0.68 5.65 8.92 3.30 15.27 0.53 95.08 5.60 9.00 21.35 2.36 Occidental Petroleum oxy 48.415 21.50 2.25 7.70 6.29 5.35 9.05 0.76 63.70 3.60 13.45 23.30 2.08 Royal Dutch Shell rds-a 69.150 100.00 0.69 11.80 5.86 7.75 8.92 2.44 28.34 5.65 12.24 32.65 2.12 Sunoco Inc sun 64.892 308.60 0.21 12.20 5.32 8.30 7.82 0.95 68.31 7.90 8.21 24.30 2.67 Tesoro Corp tso 65.380 280.50 0.23 14.20 4.60 10.55 6.20 0.40 nmf 9.80 6.67 34.60 1.89 Total S A tot 69.112 75.15 0.92 10.70 6.46 6.90 10.02 2.19 31.56 6.00 11.52 41.25 1.68 Valero Energy vlo 52.670 155.00 0.34 10.10 5.21 8.10 6.50 0.30 175.57 5.85 9.00 29.65 1.78 Mean: 0.73 6.48 9.03 90.43 12.42 2.55 Median: 0.68 6.29 8.61 60.63 11.52 2.12 Estimated: 0.70 6.50 8.70 60.00 11.50 2.00 source: Value Line Investment Survey and Finance.Yahoo.com Note: Average Stock Price = 4th 1/4 High/Low common stock price averages Note: Units per share comparisons Page 4 Washington State Department of Reveue Support for Yield Capitalization Equity Component Capital Asset Pricing Model Liquid Petroleum 2007 Assessment Year EX Post Ke = Rf + B (Rm - Rf) Where: Ibbotson Rm Ke = Cost of Equity 8.7% Rm = rate of return 10.4% Rf = risk free rate 4.8% Rp = risk premium 5.6% B = Beta 0.70 Rm=Investor's Market Rate of Return 10.4% Ibbotson SBBI, December Market Report 2006, Table 7, page 16 Ibbotson, SBBI, Large Company Rf = Risk Free Rate: 4.8% Ibbotson's SBBI, Risk Premia Over Time Report 2006 Table C1 Pg 5 Long Term (20 yr) US Treasury Bond Yield 4.9% The Value Line Investment Survey, Selected Yields, pg 4941, January 5, 2007 U.S.