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August 2017 Trade Bulletin

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August 7, 2017 Highlights of This Month’s Edition Bilateral trade: In the first six months of 2017, U.S. goods trade deficit grew to $171 billion, up 6 percent year-on-year; U.S. deficit in advanced technology products increases 124 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2017 as Chinese telecommunications exports soar and U.S. aerospace exports decline; U.S. services exports to China reach a new record, driven by increases in tourism, financial services, and intellectual property payments. Bilateral policy issues: The inaugural Comprehensive Economic Dialogue concludes with no concrete agreements; China clamps down on the use of VPNs, threatening free flow of data and business operations. Policy trends in China’s economy: China’s National Financial Work Conference produces modest outcomes; faced with mounting corporate debt and capital flight, the Chinese government introduces new regulations limiting large overseas investments, leading to the withdrawal of several high-profile deals in the United States. Quarterly review of China’s economy: China’s economy grew 6.9 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2017, fueled primarily by surging industrial activity, property investment, and credit growth. Sector focus – Rice: U.S. rice producers gain access to China’s market, but challenges remain. Contents Bilateral Trade ............................................................................................................................................................2 Top U.S. Imports from China Grow .......................................................................................................................3 Advanced Technology Products .............................................................................................................................4 U.S. Services Trade with China ..............................................................................................................................4 Bilateral Policy Issues ................................................................................................................................................5 The U.S.-China Comprehensive Dialogue .............................................................................................................5 China Cracks Down on the Use of Virtual Private Networks ................................................................................6 Policy Trends in China’s Economy ............................................................................................................................7 National Financial Work Conference Produces Modest Outcomes .......................................................................7 Beijing Seeks to Curb Large Overseas Investments amid Mounting Debt Fears ...................................................7 Quarterly Review of China’s Economy ......................................................................................................................8 China’s GDP Growth Exceeds Expectations ..........................................................................................................8 Property Market Remains Strong .........................................................................................................................10 Manufacturing and Exports Rebound ...................................................................................................................11 Domestic Consumption and Services Continue to Grow .....................................................................................12 Sector Focus: United States Gains Access to Chinese Rice Market ........................................................................12 This issue of the Economics and Trade Bulletin was prepared by Nargiza Salidjanova, Michelle Ker, Katherine Koleski, Sean O’Connor, Matt Snyder, and Itamar Waksman. For inquiries, please contact us at [email protected]. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 1 Bilateral Trade The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China totaled $32.6 billion in June 2017, its highest monthly level since August 2016 and a 9.5 percent increase year-on-year (see Figure 1). U.S. exports to China continued to increase, growing 10.1 percent year-on-year to $9.7 billion. U.S. imports from China grew 9.6 percent year-on-year to $42.3 billion. Month-on-month, U.S. exports fell 4.7 percent mostly due to a decrease in passenger cars and pharmaceutical products while U.S. imports from China increased 1.2 percent due to higher computer and apparel imports.1 Figure 1: U.S. Exports, Imports, and the Trade Deficit with China, January 2016–June 2017 30% 20% 10% 0% year - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun on - -10% 2016 2017 year -20% -30% Exports Imports Trade Deficit -40% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Trade in Goods with China, August 4, 2017. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html. In the first six months of 2017, U.S. imports to and exports from China both reached a record high for this period of the year. As seen in Figure 2, U.S. goods trade with China is seasonal, decreasing in the first half of the year and increasing in the second half. For the first half of 2017, U.S. exports grew 15.7 percent year-on-year to $59 billion and imports from China grew 8.3 percent year-on-year to $230 billion, with the overall goods trade deficit increasing 6 percent year-on-year to $171 billion. In terms of total trade, China was the United States’ second largest trading partner in the first half of 2017, roughly $1 billion behind Canada ($290 billion in total trade with Canada versus $289 billion for China).2 U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 2 Figure 2: Goods Trade with China, 2011–2017 $100 $50 $0 -$50 -$100 -$150 US$ US$ billions -$200 -$250 -$300 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Exports Imports (Negated) Balance Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Trade in Goods with China, August 4, 2017. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html. Top U.S. Imports from China Grow U.S. imports of four out of the top five product categories from China increased in the second quarter of 2017 (see Table 1). Imports of Chinese consumer and electronic products and miscellaneous manufactured commodities showed considerable growth, increasing 31.8 percent and 61.7 percent year-on-year respectively. Together these two categories accounted for 50.9 percent of all U.S. good imports from China in the second quarter of 2017. Imports of Chinese electrical equipment and apparel and accessories increased 21.6 percent and 29.9 percent respectively year-on-year. Non-electrical machinery declined 8.4 percent year-on-year. Table 1: U.S. Trade with China Top Five Exports and Imports Source: U.S. Census Bureau, USA Trade Online, August 4, 2017. https://usatrade.census.gov/. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 3 Top five U.S. exports to China registered moderate-to-high growth. Exports of chemicals and non-electrical machinery grew 12.1 and 15.8 percent year-on-year. The United States’ largest export to China, transportation equipment, grew 2.9 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. Exports of waste and scrap edged out agricultural products for the last slot among the top 5 exports for the first time since August 2016.3 Advanced Technology Products The U.S. trade deficit with China in advanced technology products reached nearly $58 billion in the first half of 2017, a 51 percent increase compared to the same period in 2016 (see Table 2). This increase was driven by a spike in China’s largest ATP export to the United States, information and communications equipment, which increased 20 percent year-on-year to $36 billion in Q2 2017. At the same time, sales of aerospace goods, the largest U.S. ATP export to China, fell to $3.7 billion, a 21 percent decrease year-on-year.4 Table 2: ATP Trade Q2 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, Foreign Trade Division, August 2017). http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/product/atp/2016/06/ctryatp/atp5700.html. U.S. Services Trade with China In the first quarter of 2017, U.S. services hit a record high of $16.3 billion, up from $15 billion over the same period in 2016, an 8.2 percent increase (Figure 3). This growth in exports drove the U.S. trade surplus in services to its highest level yet, at $12.1 billion—up 8 percent from $11.2 billion year-on-year. Chinese services exports to the United States grew to $4.1 billion from $3.8 in 2016 for 8.7 percent growth year-on-year.5 Tourism continues to be the United States’ top services export to China, accounting for 63 percent of all U.S. services exports to China in the first quarter of 2017.* Chinese tourism to the United States continues to rise, growing $411 million in the first quarter of 2017 year-on-year. U.S. exports of transportation, financial services, and intellectual property charges increased significantly in the first quarter, growing 11 percent, 27 percent, and 38 percent, respectively, year-on-year. U.S. telecommunications, information, and computer services exports dropped 20 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, from $179 million to $143 million.6 * The U.S. government classifies tuition payments as tourism and travel exports. For more on Chinese tourism in the United States, see Matt Snyder, “Chinese Tourism and Hospitality Investment in the United States,” U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, July 25, 2016. http://www.uscc.gov/Research/chinese-tourism-and-hospitalityinvestment-united-states.
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