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The Future of Transatlantic Relations

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The Future of Transatlantic Relations From Alliance to CoalitionsÐ The Future of Transatlantic Relations Werner Weidenfeld, Caio Koch-Weser, C. Fred Bergsten, Walther Stützle, John Hamre eds.) From Alliance to CoalitionsÐ The Future of Transatlantic Relations Bertelsmann Foundation Publishers Bibliographic information published by Die Deutsche Bibliothek Die Deutsche Bibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available on the Internet at http://dnb.ddb.de. 2004 Bertelsmann Foundation Publishers, Gütersloh Responsible: Nicole Renvert Translation: Toby Axelroth, Michael Prince, Dr. Barbara Serfozo Editing: Nicole Renvert, Maren Qualmann Production editor: Sabine Reimann Cover design: HTG Werbeagentur, Bielefeld Cover illustration: Zefa/MEV Typesetting and printing: Hans Kock Buch- und Offsetdruck GmbH, Bielefeld ISBN 3-89204-762-6 www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/verlag Table of Contents Acknowledgements ....................................... 9 Werner Weidenfeld Introduction: The Intertwining of Security and Economics ............... 11 Werner Weidenfeld Executive Summary: The Transatlantic Strategy Group on Security ............. 37 Walther Stützle Executive Summary: The Transatlantic Strategy Group on Economics, Finance and Trade ........................................ 51 C. Fred Bergsten, Caio Koch-Weser Security ................................................... 59 The New Patterns in Transatlantic Relations ..................... 59 Transatlantic TristesseÐ More Than Just History Repeating Itself? ................. 61 Nicole Renvert, Marcus von Essen 6 Contents Transatlantic Relations in a New World Order ............. 77 Nicole Schley An Elective Partnership: Salvaging Transatlantic Relations .......................... 89 James B. Steinberg After Atlanticism, What? .................................. 107 Ivo H. Daalder Transatlantic Security Challenges .............................. 125 America on the Edge of an Uncertain Future ............... 127 John J. Hamre Six Proposals for a More Effective EU Foreign Policy ...... 141 Charles Grant Security in Times of Terror ................................ 161 Josef Janning Primacy or Order? American Power and the Global System after Iraq ............................... 177 Steven E. Miller The New Strategic Relationship with Russia ..................... 193 Russia as Ally: The Chances and Pitfalls of Expanding Transatlantic Relations .............. 195 Curt Gasteyger The Future of the Transatlantic Alliance ................... 207 Jean Betermier, Jean-Louis Gergorin Contents 7 Putin's Russia Rapprochement with the West: Tactical Ploy or Strategic Choice? ......................... 221 Andrei Piontkovsky Economics, Finance and Trade .............................. 235 The G-2: A New Conceptual Basis and Operating Modality for Transatlantic Economic Relations ..................... 237 C. Fred Bergsten, Caio Koch-Weser Transatlantic Trade Relations ............................. 251 JeffreyJ. Schott, GaryHufbauer U.S.-EU Regulatory Convergence: Capital Markets Issues .................................... 265 Mario Draghi, Robert C. Pozen Energy Policy Issues for EU-U.S. consideration ............ 293 Philip K. Verleger Bridging the Transatlantic Environmental Divide .......... 309 Dan Esty Immigration and Integration: The Transatlantic Challenge ............................... 321 Philip Martin Authors ................................................... 339 Participants ............................................... 343 Acknowledgements Werner Weidenfeld The year 2001 witnessed a profound change in transatlantic rela- tions, for the attacks of September 11 signaled a new epoch of security politics. Decision makers on both sides of the Atlantic had to respond to new threats and find new ways to work together. Ultimately, there were vastly different approaches to the challenges at hand; thus 2001 marked the end of a period of transatlantic thinking and the dawning of a new political era. Dif- ferences in procedure and method led to this crisis in the transat- lantic partnership, a crisis that was foreshadowed with the end of the Cold War but only became manifest during the intervention in Iraq in 2003. The resulting fissure between Europe and the USA extended through Europe as a whole. Responding to these new challenges, the Bertelsmann Founda- tion undertook to identify the pressures on the transatlantic partner- ship as a kind of early-warning system and to confront these stresses through concrete strategy recommendations. Within the framework of the project, ªThe Future of Transatlantic Relationsº A2001Ð 2004), the Bertelsmann Foundation created two high-level bodies, the Transatlantic Strategy Groups on Economics, Finance and Trade and the Transatlantic Strategy Group on Security. Members of the Strategy Groups worked for two years to develop a package of rec- ommendations as to how, and in which areas, the USA and Europe might cooperate in the future and to identify interdependencies between economic challenges and those of the new security policies. 10 Werner Weidenfeld The results of this initiative are reflected in this publication. It is the product of intensive conferences on strategy in the USA and Europe, bilateral discussions and the procurement of additional testimony to illuminate specific points. The first part of the book introduces the processes, composi- tion and terms of reference of the Strategy Groups. The second section deals with questions related to security politics. The third part covers economic cooperation, energy security and environ- mental issues. In addition to the authors of this publication, there were numerous outside experts and international decision makers who assisted in this initiative, above all the chairpersons of the Strat- egy Groups: Dr. John Hamre of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, and Dr. Walther Stützle, former Deputy Minister of Defense ATransatlantic Strategy Group on Security); Dr. C. Fred Bergsten, Director, Institute for International Economics, and Caio Koch-Weser, State Secretary, Ministry of Finance ATransat- lantic Strategy Group on Economics, Finance and Trade). I wish to extend my thanks to all participantsÐand particu- larly to the chairpersonsÐfor their commitment and active sup- port of this initiative. For the transformation of the project into this publication, my thanks go to Nicole Renvert and Nicole Schley. Introduction: The Intertwiningof Security and Economics There is little doubt that transatlantic relations are under pres- sure, even if we now are experiencing a period of ªdØtente,º of relaxation; and we wonder: ªWill it last?º As this century begins, world politics stands at the dawn of a new epoch. Almost daily, new examples surface to show that this new era is marked by dangerous chaos, including terror attacks and the efforts of certain states to acquire weapons of mass destruction, as well as the corresponding negative reaction of the established powers. More than a decade after the end of the East- West confrontation, world politics has reoriented itself to face transnational crises and security threats. One would be naive to assume that the European-American partnership remains untouched by these upheavals in world poli- tics. The result for the partnership is clear: the traditional emo- tional warmth has disappeared. Today's situation is marked by harsh rhetoric, mutual recriminations of undermining coopera- tion, and American hegemonial designs with a tendency toward an unprecedented unilateralism. It will take a while for this latest transatlantic crisisÐwhich started with the third Gulf War, climaxed with the U.S.-led inva- sion in Iraq and, from a German viewpoint, came to an official end when Schröder visited the American president at the end of September 2003Ðto die down. The crisis was not only unusually serious, but its stridency was unfamiliar to observers. 12 Werner Weidenfeld In its deepest dimension, the transatlantic relationship has suf- fered tremendous erosion. The displacement of foreign policy strategies, growing apathy, generation change and dissolving per- sonal networks, a focus on domestic affairs, less stable definitions of position, unexpected changes in political standpoint; in short: Europe and America are experiencing the end of a nearly 50-year transatlantic relationship that was taken for granted. Relations across the Atlantic have entered the vortex of changing global political constellations, under the threat of terrorism, and must provide new answers for new challenges. In assessing these future challenges for the transatlantic com- munity, the radically changed international political conditions must be taken into consideration. Many formerly decisive figures and models of international politics have lost relevance in recent years and no longer stand ready to guide future strategies or to train new transatlantic leadership. Two changes in international politics seem particularly relevant in light of this situation: First of all, international terrorism has replaced the East-West conflict and the dominant classical security concerns as the strate- gic, main determinant of international politics. At the same time, the number of actors in the international political scene is grow- ing, together with the potential for cooperation and conflict. A consequence of this development is the relativization of for- mer power structures. In addition, the advancement of interna- tional law and the globalization of media, with worldwide on-
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