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COMMERCIAL SPACE SURVEILLANCE & TRACKING Euroconsult for the UK Space Agency Final Report 17 March 2020 Future Markets Research Commercial Space Surveillance and Tracking Final Report 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PART 1 – SST SECTOR OVERVIEW SST CONTEXT SST IN THE US SST IN EUROPE PART 2 – MARKET ASSESSMENT STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION CAMPAIGN MARKET ASSESSMENT MODEL AND ASSUMPTIONS COMMERCIAL SST MARKET SIZING Future Markets Research Commercial Space Surveillance and Tracking Final Report 2 LIST OF ACRONYMS ADR ACTIVE DEBRIS REMOVAL MEO MEDIUM EARTH ORBIT AI ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MFF MULTIANNUAL FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK AIS AUTOMATIC IDENTIFICATION SYSTEM MOD MINISTRY OF DEFENSE ASAT ANTI-SATELLITE MISSILE MS MEMBER STATES ASI AGENZIA SPAZIALE ITALIANA NASA NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION BNSC BRITISH NATIONAL SPACE CENTRE NEO NEAR-EARTH OBJECT BOOTES SPANISH BURST OPTICAL OBSERVER AND TRANSIENT EXPLORING SYSTEM NOAA NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION CDTI CENTRO PARA EL DESARROLLO TECNOLÓGICO INDUSTRIAL POLSA POLISH SPACE AGENCY CIS COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES ROSA ROMANIAN SPACE AGENCY CNES CENTRE NATIONAL D’ETUDES SPATIALES R&D RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT COPUOS COMMITTEE ON THE PEACEFUL USES OF OUTER SPACE R&I RESEARCH AND INNOVATION COSMOS OPERATIONAL CENTRE FOR MILITARY SURVEILLANCE OF SPACE OBJECTS SATCEN EUROPEAN UNION SATELLITE CENTRE CSPOC COMBINED SPACE OPERATIONS CENTER SDA SPACE DATA ASSOCIATION DARPA DEFENSE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY SFS SPACE FENCE SYSTEM DLR DEUTSCHES ZENTRUM FÜR LUFT- UND RAUMFAHRT SPD-3 SPACE POLICY DIRECTIVE 3 DOC DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE SSA SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS DOD DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE SSN SPACE SURVEILLANCE NETWORK EC EUROPEAN COMMISSION SSO SUN SYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ESA EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY SST SPACE SURVEILLANCE AND TRACKING ESOC EUROPEAN SPACE OPERATIONS CENTRE STM SPACE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT EU EUROPEAN UNION SWE SPACE WEATHER EUSST EUROPEAN UNION SPACE SURVEILLANCE AND TRACKING S3T SPANISH SPACE SURVEILLANCE AND TRACKING FCC FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION S3TSN SPANISH SPACE SURVEILLANCE AND TRACKING SENSOR NETWORK FHR FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR HIGH FREQUENCY PHYSICS AND RADAR TAROT FRENCH RAPID ACTION TELESCOPE FOR TRANSIENT OBJECTS TECHNIQUES TIRA GERMAN TRACKING AND IMAGING RADAR FY FISCAL YEAR UK UNITED KINGDOM GEO GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT UKSA UNITED KINGDOM SPACE AGENCY GEODSS US GROUND-BASED ELECTRO-OPTICAL DEEP SPACE SURVEILLANCE UN UNITED NATIONS GESTRA GERMAN EXPERIMENTAL SURVEILLANCE AND TRACKING RADAR UNSW UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES GPS GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM USAF UNITED STATES AIR FORCE GPSST SPACE SURVEILLANCE AND TRACKING PROJECT GROUP USSPACECOM UNITED STATES SPACE COMMAND GRAVES FRENCH LARGE NETWORK ADAPTED TO THE SURVEILLANCE OF SPACE USSR UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS GSSAC GERMANY’S SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS CENTER VHF VERY HIGH FREQUENCY HEO HIGHLY ELLIPTICAL ORBIT IADC INTER-AGENCY SPACE DEBRIS COORDINATION COMMITTEE IOS IN ORBIT SERVICING ISO INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION FOR STANDARDIZATION ISOC ITALIAN SPACE SURVEILLANCE AND TRACKING OPERATIONS CENTER ITAR INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC IN ARMS REGULATIONS ITU INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION UNION JAPCC JOINT AIR POWER ​​COMPETENCE CENTRE LEO LOW EARTH ORBIT LPM MILITARY PROGRAMMING LAW Future Markets Research Commercial Space Surveillance and Tracking Final Report 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Study Scope Executive Summary and Key Inputs The United Kingdom Space Agency (UKSA) has commissioned Euroconsult to assess the current and future market sizing for the supply and demand of commercial Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) solutions. SST, usually known as Space Situational Awareness (SSA) outside Europe, is the detection, tracking and cataloguing of space objects to determine their orbits and predict future collisions, fragmentations and re-entry events of satellites and/or debris. Space debris is one of the principal threats to satellites and there are an estimated 750,000 debris objects larger than 1 cm in Earth orbit. After launch and deployment into orbit, space debris is often the next highest risk to a mission. The market sizing applies to the commercialization of space object tracking and cataloguing and services directly linked to core SST activities such as conjunction event alerts, collision on launch assessments, tracking of satellites during de-orbiting or orbit-raising, and so on. In addition to dedicated desk research, this study relied extensively on an SST stakeholder interview campaign covering both the SST market supply side (commercial SST service providers) and the demand side (government and commercial satellite operators). The other key input was Euroconsult’s proprietary satellite database, which tracks all satellites built and launched. Future Markets Research Commercial Space Surveillance and Tracking Final Report 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Space Debris Context Space debris is an increasing concern amongst both public and Debris are largely concentrated in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), the private space actors as the space environment is becoming orbit most frequently used and with the highest satellite increasingly crowded. Human-made debris is largely composed of population as it is the easiest orbit to access. LEO offers many satellites which have reached end-of-life, space objects intentionally business opportunities in Earth Observation and new internet released as part of missions, rocket parts, frozen propellant from connectivity applications and is the future target of the mega- propulsion systems, as well as fragments which have broken off from constellation projects proposed or already in the process of being space objects due to collisions and explosions. As a result, there is a launched, such as SpaceX’s Starlink system. MEO is the least used growing risk of collision for operational satellites and other orbit in terms of satellite populations, as it is home nearly exclusively space objects which may either impair the functionality of the to government navigation satellites such as Galileo, GPS and satellite or result in catastrophic failure of the mission. Glonass. GEO, the furthest of all orbits and the most technically- challenging to reach, is accessible only by the most advanced In 2019, ESA's Space Debris Office estimated the number of space players, namely mature satellite communication providers and objects larger than 10 cm at 34 000, with 128 million objects under 1 governments. cm. However, the debris which is tracked is far lower: the US Space Surveillance Network catalogues less than 20,000 space objects. Future Markets Research Commercial Space Surveillance and Tracking Final Report 5 SST OVERVIEW – SELECTED CONSTELLATIONS AND DEBRIS CLUSTERS NOAA 3 NOAA 5 1511 km (179) 1506 km (174) Globalstar 1414 km (24) Hongyan 1100 km (455) Nimbus 6 1058 km (199) Nimbus 4 Xingyun OneWeb 1075 km (235) 1000 km (93) 1010 km(709) Hongyun 1061 km (8) COSMOS 1275 847 km (289) Sfera Satcom 870 km (5) Iridium NEXT ORBCOMM FM 16 Skywalker 775 km (82) 819 km (12) 808 km (55) Fungyun-1C 749 km (2880) Hiber 600 km (50) Iridium 33 CBERS 1 / SACI 1 574 km (394) 598 km (210) Northstar Constellation name 500 km (40) Spire Zhuhai Hyperspectral Apogee (#satellite) 400-500 km (297) 498 km (16) Hawkeye 577 km (63) Debris Cloud Zhuhai Video Astrocast Apogee (#debris >10cm) 500 km (23) 5000-600 km (62) Launched Constellation Planet 300-700km (860) Constellation in Progress Iceye Future Constellation 580 km (47) H-2A Transit Area Starlink Aleph 466 km (4) Higher collision risk area 550 km (1622) 480 km (186) Kepler 500 km (47) Cicero 500-580 km (12) Sky & space global 496 km (3) Jilin Microsat 530-640 km (137) Cosmos 2251 254 km (20) 461 km (1141) Future Markets Research 6 Commercial Space Surveillance and Tracking Final Report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SST Space Market Dynamics The market for commercial SST is a challenge to assess. It is a developing commercial application with high interest across the stakeholder community. Three main dynamics impact the commercial SST market: • The world is currently on the cusp of the mega-constellation revolution, with multiple projects in planning and at least two with first launches in 2019-2020. If all projects are realized, by the end of the decade the number of satellites in orbit will rise exponentially, with a sustained launch rate of thousands of satellites per year. • The SST market is likely to exhibit “S-curve” characteristics, prevalent in nascent, high-technology areas as they enter the mainstream commercial market. SST technology and business adoption is currently in a preliminary phase, but as technology improves, a period of rapid growth with more significant service penetration is forecasted until market maturity is reached and penetration peaks, slowing further growth. • A number of factors currently suppress the commercial SST market, most notably the fact that commercial services must compete against free government solutions, and that no legal framework exists to impose obligations on satellite operators to procure commercial SST services. Future Markets Research Commercial Space Surveillance and Tracking Final Report 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Quantifying the Commercial SST Market Overview In 2019, the addressable SST commercial market is estimated to Commercial SST Market total US$23.9 million and forecasted to grow to approximately (in millions USD) US$125.7 million by the end of the period in 2035, of which 40% $125.7 M from commercial satellite operators. 120 The SST market is expected to undergo three distinct
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