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Lees Dit Boek 'Zoals Monbiot Terecht Zegt: Als Zijn Ideeën Ons Niet Beval- Len, Moeten We Met Betere Komen. Hij Gelooft Dat A Lees dit boek ‘Zoals Monbiot terecht zegt: als zijn ideeën ons niet beval- len, moeten we met betere komen. Hij gelooft dat alles bij het oude laten geen serieuze optie is.’ – Financial Times Geef dit boek door Lees het niet alleen. Koop nog een exemplaar van dit boek. Geef het aan wie zich zorgen maakt, wie informatie zoekt, wie zich roekeloos gedraagt, wie iets wil doen. Geeft het door en maak er een kettingboek van. Hoe langer de ketting wordt, hoe meer hij uitwaaiert, hoe groter het ef- fect is. Dit boek gelezen? Koop dan De laatste generatie door Fred Pearce om te weten wat er precies met het klimaat aan de hand is. Eveneens slechts 5 euro. Zie ook www.hitte.nu voor ideeën wat u zelf kunt doen. voor Hanna Dat deze wereld voor jou bewoonbaar moge zijn George Monbiot Hitte Hoe voorkomen we dat de planeet verbrandt? met research-assistentie van Dr Matthew Prescott vertaling Nigel Harle en Michiel Groen i.s.m. Maurits Groen Milieu & Communicatie Uitgeverij Jan van Arkel Maurits Groen Milieu & Communicatie Serie Klimaat voor 5 Euro Fred Pearce - De laatste generatie (november 2007) George Monbiot - Hitte (december 2007) Maurits Groen & Jos van der Schot - Hitte nl (werktitel, voorjaar 2008) © George Monbiot, 2006/2007 zie ook www.monbiot.com oorspronkelijke titel: Heat verschenen bij Allen Lane, Penguin Group, London isbn 978 90 6224 469 0 vertaling: Nigel Harle en Michiel Groen i.s.m. Maurits Groen Milieu & Communicatie omslagontwerp: Karel Oosting omslagfoto: Tor Ivar Karlsen opmaak: Hanneke Kossen druk: Haasbeek Dit is een klimaatneutraal product. De co2 die is uitgestoten bij het maken en verspreiden van dit boek is voor 100 procent gecompen- seerd in een klimaatproject van KlimaatNeutraalGroep, Arnhem. Uitgeverij Jan van Arkel Grifthoek 151, 3514 jk Utrecht Tel. 030 2731840, [email protected] www. antenna.nl/i-books; www.hitte.nu i.s.m. Maurits Groen Milieu & Communicatie bv Fonteinlaan 7, 2012 jg Haarlem Tel. 023 5424656, [email protected] www.mgmc.nl; www.co2-Neutraal.nu Inhoud Bij de Nederlandse uitgave 7 Dankwoord 8 Voorwoord 9 Inleiding – Gestrand in goede bedoelingen 21 1 Een Faustiaans verbond 35 2 De ontkenningsindustrie 60 3 De verdeling van de vrijheid 90 4 Onze tochtige woningen 111 5 Het licht laten branden 137 6 Wat heeft duurzame energie ons te bieden? 164 7 Het energie-internet 195 8 Een nieuw vervoerssysteem 219 9 Love miles 254 10 Virtueel winkelen 278 11 Apocalyps uitgesteld 298 Adressen 313 Noten 315 Index: zie www.hitte.nl Bij de Nederlandse uitgave In Hitte onderzoekt George Monbiot hoe we de uitstoot van broeikasgassen voor het jaar 2030 met 90 procent kunnen ver- minderen. Die uitstootreductie is, zo blijkt o.a. uit ipcc-studies, noodzakelijk om te voorkomen dat we de kritische grens van een temperatuurstijging van 2 graden Celsius overschrijden. Monbiot laat de mogelijkheden daartoe zien voor zijn eigen land Groot-Brittannië. Dit staat als (middelgroot) industrieel land volgens hem ook model voor andere rijke landen, zoals Nederland en België. “Als de ecologisch noodzakelijke beper- king van co2-uitstoot in Groot-Brittannië een haalbare kaart is, is dat op vergelijkbare wijze overal zo.” Dit is in principe juist, maar er zijn ook wezenlijke ver- schillen tussen Groot-Brittannië en Nederland en België: het Britse woningbestand bijvoorbeeld is in veel slechtere staat dan de huizen in Nederland en België; er zijn verschillen bij de infrastructuur van het verkeer en het openbaar vervoer; in Nederland is de land- en tuinbouwsector een geval apart; bovendien is Nederland noch België een eiland en moeten wij meer rekening houden met grenseffecten. Aanvankelijk hadden we het plan het boek op deze punten aan te vullen. Door overal de verschillen aan te geven zou het boek echter onleesbaar worden. Vandaar dat we in 2008 met een apart boek komen dat met de aanpak van Heat de situatie in Nederland onderzoekt en kijkt of ook hier een emissiere- ductie van 90 procent te bereiken is. Het voor u liggende boek is daarom een geactualiseerde versie van het oorspronkelijke Heat, met op enkele plaatsen een Nederlandse toevoeging. Hitte is een inspirerend document, dat oproept tot actie. Lees daarover meer op www.hitte.nu. Maurits Groen & Jan van Arkel Dankwoord Zonder de hulp van de volgende mensen had ik dit boek niet kunnen schrijven. Mijn vrouw Angharad Penrhyn Jones, mijn researchassistent Dr Matthew Prescott, mijn algemeen assi- stent Sandy Kennedy, mijn agenten Antony Harwood en James Macdonald Lockhart, en mijn redacteur Helen Conford. Ik heb ook heel veel steun gehad van de volgende deskundigen, die mij royaal met hun tijd terzijde stonden: Dave Andrews, Gra- ham Sinden, Robert Gross, Simon Bowens, George Marshall, Mark Lynas, Andrew Warren, Oliver Tickell, Richard Starkey, Stephen Joseph, Paul Allen, Roger Kemp, Brenda Boardman, Becca Lush, Byron Wine, Neil Crumpton, Norbert Hirsch- horn, Kevin Anderson, Norman Myers, Stuart Croft, Sammy Daniel, Sarah Keay-Bright, Alice Bows, Jonathan Gibbins, Rajat Gupta, David Hirst, Walt Patterson, Meyer Hillman, Andrew Simms, Thomas Aldrian, Mark Barrett, Robert Webb, Dieter Helm, Lex Waspe, Jim Skea, John Loughhead, Les Harding, Mark Partington and Ian Gazley. Heel veel dank aan allen. Voorwoord Sinds het uitkomen van de eerste editie van dit boek zijn we het er bijna allemaal over eens geworden dat klimaatveran- dering, in de woorden van Tony Blair, ‘de allerbelangrijkste kwestie is waarvoor we momenteel staan’.1 Maar net zo eens- gezind zijn we in ons voornemen er niets aan te doen. Dit is niet helemaal waar: het gaat erom wie je met ‘we’ be- doelt. Over de hele wereld – onder andere in het Britse parle- ment, de Europese Unie, het Amerikaans Congres, het Natio- nale Volkscongres van China – worden goede voornemens, doelstellingen en zelfs bindende afspraken besproken en op schrift gesteld. Maar vanuit onze luie stoel blijven we de wet- gevers passief aanstaren terwijl ze namens ons handelen. Een recente enquête van de Energy Saving Trust heeft aangetoond dat maar 4 procent van de Britse bevolking haar manier van leven wezenlijk heeft veranderd.2 Iedereen wacht op elkaar en intussen gebeurt er niets. Niemand zal ontkennen dat we inmiddels veel beter geïnfor- meerd zijn over de ontwrichting van de biosfeer. In alle media is er aandacht geweest voor de meest recente wetenschappe- lijke rapportage van het vn-orgaan voor klimaatverandering, het ipcc, waarin wordt gewaarschuwd dat grote delen van de aarde nu al door ‘intensere en langere droogteperioden’ wor- den getroffen;3 dat de zeespiegel twintig keer sneller stijgt dan het gemiddelde tempo van de laatste 3.000 jaar4,5 en dat elf van de laatste twaalf jaren tot de twaalf warmste behoren die ooit zijn geregistreerd. Maar we lezen over deze veranderingen met dezelfde gebiologeerde onmacht waarmee we een goede rampenfilm bekijken. Als we er niet naar handelen, is al deze kennis nutteloos, of erger nog: verlammend. Het gevaar is niet zozeer dat klimaatverandering geen onderwerp van discussie meer is, maar dat we er eindeloos over blijven praten. 10 Hitte Op het eerste gezicht lijken sommige regeringsinitiatieven al- leszins geruststellend. Wellicht de belangrijkste gebeurtenis van de laatste tijd was de publicatie, eind 2006, van het zoge- naamde Stern-rapport. Sir Nicholas Stern, vroeger hoofdeco- noom bij de Wereldbank, kreeg van de Britste regering de op- dracht de economische implicaties van klimaatverandering op een rij te zetten. Hij berekende dat de totale, mondiale kosten van een forse stijging van de atmosferische temperatuur tot een mondiale koopkrachtvermindering van tussen de 5 en 20 procent zouden leiden, terwijl het voorkómen daarvan maar 1 procent van het bruto mondiaal product zou kosten.6 Eco- nomisch bezien heeft het dus zin om in te grijpen. Wellicht verwacht men van mij dat ik het Stern-rapport met open armen ontvang, omdat het in belangrijke opzichten met de boodschap van dit boek lijkt te stroken. Dat heb ik in eerste instantie ook gedaan. Maar hoe meer ik erover ben gaan nadenken, hoe minder het mij bevalt. Net als de meeste klimaatwetenschappers lijkt Sir Nicholas te geloven dat als we gevaarlijke klimaatverandering willen mijden, we ervoor moeten zorgen dat de mondiale temperatuur niet meer dan 2ºC stijgt ten opzichte van pre-industriële niveaus. Als dat ons niet lukt, zo schrijft hij, is er een kans dat ‘tussen de 0,7 en 4,4 miljard mensen’ te maken zullen krijgen met ‘toenemende watertekorten’.8 Er is een grote kans op ‘verminderde land- bouwopbrengsten in veel ontwikkelingsregio’s’.9 Het Ama- zone-regenwoud ‘zou significante en mogelijk onherstelbare schade kunnen lijden’;10 5 tot 40 procent van de levensvormen op aarde wordt met uitsterven bedreigd; ‘over de hele wereld verdwijnen kleine berggletsjers’, waardoor drinkwaterbron- Hij schrijft: ‘Een maximale temperatuurstijging van minder dan 2ºC zou het risico van nadelige gevolgen van klimaatverandering sterk verminderen en zou misschien voldoende zijn om de drempels te mijden van bepaalde grote onomkeerbare veranderingen, zoals het smelten van de ijskappen, het verlies van de grootste regenwouden en het punt waarbij de natuurlijke vegetatie niet meer als ‘put’ voor emis- sies functioneert, maar als bron.’7 Voorwoord 11 nen dreigen op te drogen; en ‘er bestaat een mogelijkheid dat de Groenlandse ijskap definitief zal smelten, waardoor het ni- veau van de zeeën nog sneller zal stijgen en de wereld niet meer ontkomt aan een zeespiegelstijging van meer van 7 meter’.11 Na deze gevolgen te hebben opgesomd, schuift Sir Nicholas zijn eigen doelstelling aan de kant. Deze kwestie is ietwat gecompliceerd, maar raakt de kern van de zaak. Daarom vraag ik van u, lezer, even geduld. De stijgen- de temperaturen op aarde staan in directe verhouding tot de gestegen concentraties broeikasgassen in de atmosfeer. De be- langrijkste van deze gassen is kooldioxide, oftewel co2, maar er zijn ook enkele andere.
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