Revisiting Power System Master Plan (PSMP) 2016 2018
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NOV Revisiting Power System Master Plan (PSMP) 2016 2018 Contents Chapter I: Introduction 9 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 9 1.1.1 Procedure Followed ................................................................................................................. 9 1.1.2 PSMP 2016 .............................................................................................................................. 9 1.1.3 Policy Vision of PSMP 2016 ................................................................................................ 10 1.1.4 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) .................................................................................. 10 Chapter II: Power Demand Forecast 11 2.1 Present Power Supply Situation ........................................................................................ 11 2.2 Zone-wise Demand up to 2041 according to Distribution Utilities ...................................... 11 2.3 Peak Power Demand Forecast as per GDP Elasticity Method ............................................. 13 2.4 Electricity for Economic Growth ...................................................................................... 19 2.5 Economic Development ................................................................................................... 19 2.6 Per Capita Income ........................................................................................................... 19 2.7 Industrialization .............................................................................................................. 20 2.8 Population Growth .......................................................................................................... 20 2.9 Some Other Factors Affecting Power Demand .................................................................. 20 2.10 According to Opinions of Distribution Entities .................................................................. 21 2.11 GDP Growth Forecasted Through Collected Peak Demand & PSMP2016 Demand ............. 21 2.12 Estimating Daily Load Curve ........................................................................................... 22 2.13 Forecasted Energy Generation Demand &Load factor of High, Base and Low Case ............ 25 2.14 Forecasted Energy Consumption Demand of High, Base and Low Case .............................. 27 2.15 Forecasted Population & Per Capita Generation ................................................................ 28 Chapter III: Power Generation Planning for High Case Studies 30 3.1 New Generation Addition Plan to meet high case demand without EE&C measures ............ 30 3.1.1 Utility-wise New Generation Capacity Addition (Committed Power Plants) ....................... 30 3.1.2 Fuel-wise New Capacity Addition (Committed Power Plants) ............................................. 30 3.1.3 New Generation Capacity Addition (Candidate Power Plants) ............................................ 31 Chapter IV: Power Generation Planning for Low Case Studies 33 4.1 New Generation Addition Plan to low case demand without EE&C measures ..................... 33 4.1.1 Utility-wise New Generation Capacity Addition (Committed Power Plants) ....................... 33 4.2 Fuel-wise New Capacity Addition (Committed Power Plants) ............................................ 33 4.2.1 New Generation Capacity Addition (Candidate Power Plants) ............................................ 34 Chapter V: Existing Generation Capacity for High & Low Case Demand 36 5.1 Net Generation Capacity of Existing Power Plants (2016 to 2041) ...................................... 36 5.2 Existing Generation Capacity and Forecasted High case Demand ....................................... 36 Power Division 1 / 90 Ministry of Power, Energy & Mineral Resources NOV Revisiting Power System Master Plan (PSMP) 2016 2018 5.3 What should be the Reserve Margin? ................................................................................ 38 Chapter VI: Integrated Power Development Plan 39 6.1 Strategy for Preparation of Integrated Development Plan ................................................... 39 6.2 Power Development Plan to meet high case demand (without EE&C measures) .................. 39 6.3 Power Development Plan to meet low case demand (without EE&C measures) ................... 42 6.4 Year-wise Fuel Mix in Total Net Power Generation Capacity ............................................. 44 6.4.1 Year-wise Fuel Mix in Total Net Generation Capacity for High Case Studies .................... 45 6.4.2 Year-wise Fuel Mix in Total Net Generation Capacity-Low Case Studies .......................... 46 6.5 Captive Power Generation Capacity ................................................................................. 47 Chapter VII: Private Sector Investment in Generation Sector 50 7.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 50 7.1.1 Sector-wise Generation Capacity in Bangladesh .................................................................. 50 7.1.2 Sector-wise Generation Capacity in Sri-Lanka ..................................................................... 51 7.1.3 Sector-wise Generation Capacity in Thailand ....................................................................... 51 7.1.4 Sector-wise Generation Capacity in India ............................................................................. 51 7.1.5 Shared Capacity of Public and Private Sector in Bangladesh ............................................... 52 7.1.6 Shared Capacity of Public and Private Sector Investment in Bangladesh ............................ 52 7.1.7 Fair Competition between Public and Private Sector Initiatives ........................................... 53 Chapter VIII: Regional Balance 54 8.1 Zone-wise Total Net Generation Capacity & Demand for High Case Studies ...................... 54 8.1.1 Zone-wise Power Demand Supply Balance .......................................................................... 54 Chapter IX: Schedule Plan for Maintenance 56 Chapter X: Renewable Energy 57 10.1 Renewable Energy Around in World ................................................................................ 57 10.2 Government Policy .......................................................................................................... 57 10.2.1 Renewable Targeted Generation Capacity ............................................................................ 58 10.3 Integration of Renewable Energy into Power Development Plan ........................................ 59 10.3.1 Substantial Renewable Energy into Grid Connections ......................................................... 59 10.4 Large Hydro via Cross-Border Power Trade...................................................................... 60 Chapter XI: Demand Side Management 61 11.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 61 11.2 Why Encourage DSM? .................................................................................................... 61 11.3 Methodology to Reduce the Demand ................................................................................ 62 11.4 Tariff Incentives and Penalties ......................................................................................... 64 11.5 Information Dissemination ............................................................................................... 64 11.6 Way Forward for Implementing DSM Programs ............................................................... 65 Chapter XII: Present & Future Plan of Power Transmission System 66 Power Division 2 / 90 Ministry of Power, Energy & Mineral Resources NOV Revisiting Power System Master Plan (PSMP) 2016 2018 12.1 Status of Present Transmission System ............................................................................. 66 12.2 Plan for future power transmission up to 2041 ................................................................... 66 12.3 Construction of 765 kV transmission line .......................................................................... 66 12.4 Construction of 765/400 kV transmission grid sub-station .................................................. 67 12.5 Construction of Cross-Border Transmission Links ............................................................. 67 12.6 Construction of HVDC Back to Back Station .................................................................... 67 12.7 Construction of 400 kV high capacity Transmission ring around Dhaka city ....................... 67 12.8 Power Evacuation of Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant .......................................................... 67 12.9 Providing uninterrupted power for the Economic zone: ...................................................... 67 12.10 Construction of 400 kV transmission lines for all regions ................................................... 68 12.11 Comparison of Power Transmission Infrastructure ............................................................ 68 12.12 Year-wise Transmission Infrastructure up to 2041 ............................................................. 69 Chapter XIII: Regional Balance through Grid Network 73 13.1 Zone-wise Generation and Demand Balancing via Transmission Network .......................... 73 Chapter XIV: Future Planning in Distribution