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Nueva Época II No. 19 / Marzo 2011 LA HABANA, CUBA Centro de Investigaciones de la Economía Mundial Nueva Época II No. 19 / Marzo 2011 1 LA HABANA, CUBA Revista Temas de economía Mundial No. 19 / 2011 Temas de Economía Mundial Consejo de Redacción Osvaldo Martínez, Director Ramón Pichs, Subdirector-Coordinador Edición Gladys Hernández Pedraza Miembros Internos Gladys Hernández Pedraza Faustino Cobarrubia Gómez Leonardo Hernández Pérez José Luis Rodríguez García Miembros externos Elena Álvarez, Ministerio de economía y Planificación (MEP), Cuba Juan Luis Martín, Ministerios de Ciencia Tecnología y Medio Ambiente (CITMA), Cuba Rolando Ruiz, Facultad de Economía, Universidad de La Habana, Cuba Orlando Caputo, Centro de Estudios sobre Transnacionalización, Economía y Sociedad (CETES), Chile Jayme Estay, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla (BUAP), México Diseño y distribución Ivett Miranda Domínguez Samira Suárez Hernández Surama Izquierdo Casanova Centro de investigaciones de la Economía Mundial (CIEM) Calle 22 No. 309 entre 3ra y 5ta Avenida, Miramar, Habana 13, C.P. 11 300, Cuba Teléfonos: (537) 209-2969 y 209-4443 Fax: (537) 204-2507 Dirección Electrónica: [email protected] Esta revista ha sido inscrita en el Registro Nacional de Publicaciones Seriadas con el No. 2173, Folio 125, Tomo III, y en el Sistema de Certificación de Publicaciones Seriadas Científico-Tecnológicas del CITMA, con el código 0725308. Para consulta de números anteriores de esta revista, buscar en el sitio web del CIEM: http://www.ciem.cu y en el sitio web de la REDEM: http://www.redem.buap.mx 2 Centro de Investigaciones de la Economía Mundial Crisis económica global, guerras comerciales y financieras. Estimado lector: El presente número 19 de la revista Temas pone a disposición de los lectores una actualización acerca de la evolución y actualidad de la crisis económica global, y su impacto en los flujos comerciales y financieros internacionales. Este número se inicia con un análisis acerca de la crisis económica global, la guerra económica y el gasto militar. Seguidamente, se muestran los resultados investigativos obtenidos en el 2010 en los dos proyectos del Programa Nacional Científico-Técnico sobre Economía mundial y relaciones económicas internacionales que se desarrollan en el CIEM; uno referido a la deuda externa del Tercer Mundo, y el otro relacionado con los retos actuales de la integración de América Latina y el Caribe Actualización acerca de la deuda externa del Tercer Mundo En este contexto, se abordan los temas relacionados con los impactos de la crisis global y la deuda externa. Estas investigaciones reflejan los resultados presentados por el Grupo de Finanzas Internacionales en la reunión del Grupo Nacional de Colaboradores desarrollada en marzo del 2010. Entre los temas abordados se destacan: 1. Evolución de la deuda externa en el contexto de la crisis global. 2. El papel del FMI ante la crisis global 3. Las cifras de la deuda externa del mundo subdesarrollado para el período: 2007-2010 4. La deuda externa y los impactos de la crisis en América latina y el Caribe. 5. Evolución de la deuda externa en Asia y el creciente papel de la India en la región. 6. Evolución de la deuda externa de África. La deuda externa de Europa Oriental y la Comunidad de Estados Independientes en el período 1989-2009. 7. La crisis global y la deuda social Actualización acerca de los retos actuales de la integración de América Latina y el Caribe En una segunda parte, se ofrecen los impactos de la crisis global en el comercio mundial y los procesos de integración regional, tomando como base los resultados presentados por el Grupo de Comercio e Integración en la Sesión Científica del CIEM celebrada en octubre 2010. En esta reunión se abordaron los siguientes temas: 1. Una nueva presidencia para los EE.UU y los cambios en la política estadounidense hacia América Latina 2. La crisis económica mundial y el peligro de las guerras militares y comerciales. 3. La Integración en América Latina y el Caribe con sus lecciones y desafíos para los pueblos. 4. La situación actual de los distintos esquemas de integración en América Latina y el Caribe en general y de la CARICOM en particular. 5. La evolución institucional del Mercosur. 3 Revista Temas de economía Mundial No. 19 / 2011 Índice Página 1. Crisis económica global, guerra económica y gasto militar. 5 Osvaldo Martínez. Director del CIEM. ACTUALIZACIÓN ACERCA DE LA DEUDA EXTERNA DEL TERCER MUNDO 2. Evolución de la deuda externa en el contexto de la crisis global. Elementos para América latina y el Caribe. 12 Gladys Cecilia Hernández Pedraza. Jefa del Grupo de Finanzas Internacionales, CIEM. 3. El papel del FMI ante la crisis global. 34 Jourdy Victoria James Heredia. Investigadora del CIEM. 4. Las cifras de la deuda externa del mundo subdesarrollado: 2007-2010. 47 Ramón Pichs Madruga. Subdirector General CIEM. 5. Evolución de la deuda externa en Asia. 52 Reynaldo Senra Hodelín y Jennie Salas Alfonso. Investigadores del CIEM. 6. Evolución económica y social de la India en el período 2009-2010. 63 Jennie Salas Alfonso. Investigadora del CIEM. 7. Evolución de la deuda externa de África. 70 Roberto S. Smith Hernández. Investigador del CIEM. 8. La deuda externa de Europa Oriental y la Comunidad de Estados Independientes en el período 1989-2009. 79 José Luis Rodríguez. Asesor del CIEM 9. La crisis global y la deuda social. 90 Blanca Munster Infante. Investigadora del CIEM. ACTUALIZACIÓN ACERCA DE LOS RETOS ACTUALES DE LA INTEGRACIÓN DE AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE 10. Otro Presidente en la Casa Blanca: ¿cambios en la política estadounidense hacia América Latina? 99 Faustino Cobarrubia Gómez. Jefe del Grupo de Comercio e Integración del CIEM. 11. La crisis económica mundial continúa: el peligro de las dos guerras. 114 Guillermo L. Andrés Alpízar. Investigador del CIEM. 12. Integración en América Latina y el Caribe: un escenario en disputa. Lecciones y desafíos para los pueblos. 130 José Ángel Pérez García. Investigador del CIEM. 13. Situación actual de los distintos esquemas de integración en América Latina y el Caribe en general y de la CARICOM en particular. 140 Gueibys Kindelán Velasco. Investigador del CIEM. 14. La crisis mundial y el desempeño económico: Evolución institucional del Mercosur. 149 Jonathán Quirós Santos. Investigador del CIEM. 4 Centro de Investigaciones de la Economía Mundial 1 Crisis económica global, guerra económica y gasto militar. Osvaldo Martínez Martínez Director del CIEM La estructura del presupuesto de Estados Unidos y la lógica de su política económica, con Bush y Obama, es el de una economía de guerra en la cual el gasto militar exacerba el déficit presupuestal, pero permite el funcionamiento de un “equilibrio del terror financiero”, reporta inmensas ganancias al complejo militar industrial y mantiene un chantaje global basado en la fuerza militar. Una simple mirada al presupuesto 2010 de Estados Unidos permite apreciar la magnitud del gasto militar y el papel que éste juega de conjunto con el gasto por los paquetes de rescate de los bancos y entidades financieras quebradas. El monto total del presupuesto es de 3.94 billones de dólares (millones de millones), y el déficit previsto es de 1,75 billones, equivalente a casi 12% del PIB.1 El gasto militar oficial se establece en 739,5 mil millones de dólares, aunque si se incluyen otros gastos indirectos o encubiertos, el gasto superaría el billón de dólares. El gasto en el rescate de las entidades financieras hundidas en la crisis, efectuado por las administraciones de Bush y Obama alcanza 1,45 billones, mientras que el interés devengado por la deuda pública es de 164 mil millones de dólares. Esto significa que casi todo el ingreso del presupuesto (2,38 billones) se consume solamente por el gasto militar, los rescates de la oligarquía financiera y una pequeña proporción por intereses de la deuda pública. No queda prácticamente nada para otros tipos de gastos. Si consideramos que el gasto militar ronda el billón de millones de dólares y que la parte del ingreso presupuestal correspondiente a los impuestos familiares es de 1,06 billones, tenemos que casi todos los impuestos que las familias pagan en Estados Unidos alcanza no más para cubrir el enorme gasto militar. Estados Unidos es el país más endeudado del mundo, aunque el significado práctico de esto es diferente para este país que para cualquier otro, porque se encuentra endeudado en la moneda nacional que él mismo crea y hace circular. El financiamiento de la enorme deuda pública federal ascendente a 14 billones de dólares, sin incluir deudas de los estados y municipios es de características surrealistas. 1 Michel Chossudovsky and Andrew Gavin Marchall. The Global Economic Crisis. Global Research. 2010. Pág. 47-48. 5 Revista Temas de economía Mundial No. 19 / 2011 Al crecimiento de esa deuda pública contribuyeron los paquetes de rescate a los bancos, pero esa deuda se financia por una retorcida operación mediante la cual el gobierno financia su propio endeudamiento, pues el dinero entregado como rescate a los bancos es financiado en parte tomando préstamos de los mismos bancos. A su vez, los bancos imponen condicionalidades al gobierno en el manejo de la deuda e imponen como el dinero debe ser empleado. Después de haber sido “rescatados” los bancos imponen cortes masivos en el gasto público en servicios para la población, la privatización de infraestructuras y servicios como agua, carreteras, recreación, pero no se toca el gasto militar. Y no se toca porque “War is Good for Business” y la misma oligarquía que maneja el mercado financiero obtiene elevadas ganancias procedentes del gasto militar. Y ese gasto militar -como parte del déficit público- es financiado por operaciones de guerra económica que se calientan cada vez más y amenazan con mezclar la guerra económica con la guerra probablemente nuclear que Estados Unidos incuba en la compleja madeja de sus intereses y contradicciones económicas y geoestratégicas.
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