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Espacios De Convergencia Y De Cooperación Regional

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Espacios De Convergencia Y De Cooperación Regional Espacios de convergencia y de cooperación regional Cumbre de Alto Nivel de América Latina y el Caribe Cancún, México 21 a 23 de febrero de 2010 Alicia Bárcena Secretaria Ejecutiva Antonio Prado Secretario Ejecutivo Adjunto Osvaldo Rosales Director de la División de Comercio Internacional e Integración Susana Malchik Oficial a cargo División de Documentos y Publicaciones El coordinador de este documento es Osvaldo Rosales, Director de la División de Comercio Internacional e Integración de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). En su preparación participaron además Mariano Alvarez, José Elías Durán, Sebastián Herreros, Germán King, Mikio Kuwayama, Marcelo LaFleur, Nanno Mulder, Andrea Pellandra y Gonzalo Véliz, funcionarios de la misma División. Colaboraron también Georgina Cipoletta, Carlos de Miguel, Luis Miguel Galindo, Martín Hopenhayn, Felipe Jiménez, Karina Martínez, Gabriel Pérez, Carlos Razo, Sebastián Rovira, Joseluis Samaniego, Ricardo Sánchez, Daniel Titelman y Varinia Tromben de otras divisiones de la CEPAL, así como las sedes subregionales de la CEPAL en México y para el Caribe. Publicación de las Naciones Unidas LC/L.3201 Copyright © Naciones Unidas, febrero de 2010. Todos los derechos reservados Impreso en Naciones Unidas, Santiago de Chile Este documento no ha sido objeto de revisión editorial formal, pero fue corregido en cuanto a terminología y referencias. 2010-88 3 ÍNDICE Página Prólogo............................................................................................................................................... 7 Introducción ....................................................................................................................................... 9 Síntesis de las propuestas................................................................................................................... 11 I. ESCENARIOS DESPUÉS DE LA CRISIS................................................................................ 17 A. Los principales efectos de la crisis en América Latina y el Caribe ...................................... 17 B. La evolución en la matriz de comercio exterior de la región................................................ 21 C. Rasgos principales del escenario después de la crisis........................................................... 25 1. Escenarios macroeconómicos......................................................................................... 25 2. Innovación y cambio tecnológico: dos desafíos clave.................................................... 27 3. El creciente peso de China y otras economías emergentes ............................................ 28 4. El cambio climático........................................................................................................ 29 II. MAYOR Y MEJOR COOPERACIÓN REGIONAL EN EL MARCO DE UNA AGENDA INTERNACIONAL CADA VEZ MÁS COMPLEJA..................................... 31 A. Fragilidad en las condiciones macroeconómicas.................................................................. 31 B. Debilidades en la institucionalidad global ............................................................................ 32 C. Necesidad de avanzar en la cooperación regional ................................................................ 32 D. Creciente demanda de coordinación de políticas.................................................................. 33 E. Necesidad urgente de intensificar la cooperación para aumentar la competitividad ............ 33 F. La integración regional como alternativa superior ............................................................... 34 III. RENOVACIÓN DE LA INTEGRACIÓN MEDIANTE COMPROMISOS REALISTAS ....... 36 IV. OPCIONES DE CONVERGENCIA EN LA AGENDA COMERCIAL REGIONAL .............. 42 V. PROPUESTAS PARA ESTIMULAR LA COOPERACIÓN REGIONAL ............................... 47 A. Cooperación intrarregional ................................................................................................... 49 1. Preservar y estimular la inversión en infraestructura ..................................................... 49 2. Fomento del comercio intrarregional ............................................................................. 54 3. Fortalecer el ámbito social de la integración.................................................................. 64 4. Reforzar el tratamiento de las asimetrías........................................................................ 68 B. Fortaleza regional para enfrentar los desafíos globales ........................................................ 71 1. Aumentar la cooperación regional en innovación y competitividad .............................. 71 2. Aprovechar el vínculo con la región de Asia y el Pacífico para profundizar la integración regional ................................................................................ 76 3. Una voz unificada en la reforma del sistema financiero internacional........................... 83 4. Abordar conjuntamente los desafíos del medio ambiente y el cambio climático........... 84 VI. CONCLUSIONES....................................................................................................................... 87 Bibliografía ........................................................................................................................................ 89 4 Gráficos Gráfico I.1 América Latina y el Caribe: tasas de variación interanuales de las exportaciones de bienes y servicios, la inversión extranjera directa y las remesas, 2008 y 2009 ............................................................................................................. 17 Gráfico I.2 Países y regiones seleccionados: evolución en el volumen y el precio de las exportaciones, julio de 2008-octubre de 2009............................................... 18 Gráfico I.3 América Latina y el Caribe: índices del valor de las exportaciones e importaciones de bienes, 2006-2009........................................................................ 20 Gráfico I.4 América Latina y el Caribe: evolución del comercio intrarregional, 1986-2009 ................................................................................................................ 21 Gráfico I.5 América Latina y el Caribe: comparación del comercio intragrupal de recursos naturales y manufacturas, 2008............................................................. 23 Gráfico I.6 América Latina y el Caribe: características de las exportaciones............................ 25 Gráfico III.1 América Latina y el Caribe: estructura de las exportaciones regionales a diversos mercados de destino, 2008...................................................................... 40 Gráfico V.1 Infraestructura de países y regiones seleccionados: densidad de carreteras y porcentaje pavimentado ........................................................................................ 50 Gráfico V.2 América Latina (6 países): inversión en infraestructura, 1980-2006....................... 50 Gráfico V.3 América Latina y el Caribe, República de Corea, OCDE y Singapur: indicadores seleccionados de costo y tiempo en el comercio exterior..................... 56 Gráfico V.4 Distribución regional de la ayuda para el comercio, 2002-2007 ............................. 61 Gráfico V.5 América Latina y el Caribe: ayuda para el comercio por categoría, 2007............... 62 Gráfico V.6 Istmo centroamericano: producto interno bruto per cápita, 1980-2008................... 70 Gráfico V.7 Países seleccionados: posición en índices de preparación tecnológica y competitividad, 2008-2009 ................................................................................... 72 Cuadros Cuadro I.1 América Latina y el Caribe y algunas regiones de referencia: evolución de las exportaciones intrarregionales y participación en el comercio mundial de bienes, 1986-1989, 1994-1997 y 2005-2007......................................... 22 Cuadro I.2 América Latina y el Caribe: destinos de las exportaciones, 2000-2001 y 2008-2009........................................................................................... 23 Cuadro III.1 El Brasil y México: peso económico en la región, 2008 ......................................... 40 Cuadro IV.1 Propuestas de convergencia de las secretarías de integración y aspectos complementarios propuestos por la CEPAL............................................................ 43 Cuadro IV.2 Países del Arco del Pacífico Latinoamericano: red de acuerdos comerciales preferenciales, enero de 2010 .................................................................................. 45 Cuadro V.1 Oportunidades en el ámbito de la facilitación del comercio y del transporte .......... 58 Cuadro V.2 El Caribe: prioridades de los países en el ámbito de la ayuda para el comercio...... 64 Cuadro V.3 América Latina y el Caribe: asimetrías en las subregiones, 2008............................ 69 Cuadro V.4 Países seleccionados: posición de China como socio comercial, 2000 y 2008 ....... 77 Cuadro V.5 Principales empresas chinas que operan en América Latina a mediados de 2008... 81 Recuadros Recuadro II.1 Cooperación en políticas de competencia en Centroamérica................................... 35 Recuadro III.1 Avances en la integración física regional: el rol de la infraestructura ..................... 39 5 Recuadro V.1 Cooperación internacional y regional para Haití ..................................................... 48 Recuadro V.2 Políticas integradas de infraestructura,
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