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Tanzania Comoros COUNTRY REPORT Tanzania Comoros 2nd quarter 1998 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.171) 830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.171) 499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.eiu.com Electronic delivery EIU Electronic Publishing New York: Lou Celi or Lisa Hennessey Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 London: Jeremy Eagle Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 This publication is available on the following electronic and other media: Online databases Microfilm FT Profile (UK) NewsEdge Corporation (US) World Microfilms Publications (UK) Tel: (44.171) 825 8000 Tel: (1.781) 229 3000 Tel: (44.171) 266 2202 DIALOG (US) Tel: (1.415) 254 7000 CD-ROM LEXIS-NEXIS (US) The Dialog Corporation (US) Tel: (1.800) 227 4908 SilverPlatter (US) M.A.I.D/Profound (UK) Tel: (44.171) 930 6900 Copyright © 1998 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 0969-6776 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK 1 Contents 3 Summary Tanzania 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 6 Outlook for 1998-99 10 Review 10 The political scene 12 The economy 15 Agriculture 17 Energy and mining 19 Foreign trade and payments Comoros 22 Political structure 23 Economic structure 24 Outlook for 1998-99 25 Review 25 The political scene 29 The economy 31 Quarterly indicators and trade data List of tables 8 Tanzania: forecast summary (domestic) 9 Tanzania: forecast summary (external) 13 Tanzania: IMF selected economic indicators 13 Tanzania: actual and seasonally adjusted inflation 14 Tanzania: government finances 16 Tanzania: lint output forecasts by region, 1998/99 19 Tanzania: trends in foreign trade 20 Tanzania: external debt 25 Comoros: the new cabinet, May 1998 30 Comoros: total foreign debt 31 Tanzania: quarterly indicators of economic activity 31 Comoros: quarterly indicators of economic activity 32 Tanzania: foreign trade 33 Tanzania: UK trade 34 Comoros: foreign trade 34 Comoros: French trade EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 1998 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1998 2 List of figures 9 Tanzania: gross domestic product 9 Tanzania: Tanzanian shilling real exchange rates 25 Comoros: gross domestic product 25 Comoros: Comorean franc real exchange rates EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 1998 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1998 3 June 8th 1998 Summary 2nd quarter 1998 Tanzania Outlook for 1998-99: President Mkapa will come under increasing pressure from international donors and multilaterals to reduce corruption in public life. Crucial aid inflows and food relief, required in the wake of a poor 1997/98 harvest due to the El Niño weather phenomenon, are unlikely to materialise unless progress is made on this front. Although the Zanzibari president, Mr Amour, has made some encouraging concessions, his failure to release detainees held on spurious treason charges will stoke political tensions on the semi-autonomous islands. Review: The Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) has requested that the Civic United Front (CUF) respect the Zanzibari constitution and accept the legiti- macy of Mr Amour’s presidency. Tensions in Zanzibar have increased in the run-up to the treason trials. The government has denounced religious riots staged by the Muslim community in protest against ill-treatment of women. Relations between Tanzania and Rwanda and Burundi have failed to improve. Burundi has maintained claims that refugee camps in northern Tanzania are being used to train interhamwe rebels. The IMF has withheld the second tranche of Tanzania’s enhanced structural adjustment facility. There was fiscal im- provement in the first quarter of 1998, with revenue rising to $90m. The Dar es Salaam stock exchange has been launched. Mr Mkapa has promised assistance to help coffee growers to double output within five years. The World Bank has remained adamant on the Independent Power Tanzania Ltd (IPTL) issue, while the government has assured it that the contract will be renegotiated with the Malaysian company concerned. There has been further foreign investment in the mining sector, although there is increasing concern about poor safety standards. The trade deficit narrowed slightly in 1997, while the total external debt stock fell slightly. Comoros Outlook for 1998-99: President Taki will continue to face substantial polit- ical problems, and in particular the impasse over secessionist demands by the archipelago’s second-largest island, Anjouan. A threatened new phase of civil disobedience—involving the non-payment of taxes—will exacerbate economic difficulties, but splits in the opposition suggest that the president’s position is secure, for the time being at least. Review: A cabinet reshuffle has cleared out government veterans and brought a prominent Anjouannais politician into government. However, this has failed to defuse the antagonism of secessionists or Moroni-based opposition leaders, and external efforts to break the deadlock have proved futile. Protests over salary arrears have spread from civil servants to the military, increasing the likelihood of further political instability, while the IMF and World Bank have slated the government’s mishandling of its finances, suggesting that donors are unlikely to extend assistance in the short term. Editor: Pratibha Thaker All queries: Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 1998 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1998 4 Tanzania Tanzania Political structure Official name United Republic of Tanzania Form of state Republic, formed by the 1964 union of Tanganyika and Zanzibar Legal system Based on English common law, the 1977 Union and 1985 Zanzibari constitutions, as amended National legislature National Assembly, comprising 269 members (232 directly elected and 37 women appointed); elected members are chosen by Union-wide adult suffrage every five years; Zanzibar has its own House of Representatives of 59 members (nine women appointees), which legislates on internal matters National elections October-November 1995 (legislative and presidential); next elections due by 2000 (legislative and presidential) Head of state President, elected by universal adult suffrage every five years National government The president, vice-president and Council of Ministers; last cabinet reshuffle February 1997 Main political parties The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM); Civic United Front (CUF); National Convention for Construction and Reform (NCCR-Mageuzi); United Democratic Party (UDP); Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) President Benjamin Mkapa Vice-president Omar Ali Juma Prime minister Frederick Sumaye Key ministers Agriculture & co-operatives Paul Kimiti Communications & transport William Kusila Community development, women’s affairs & children Mary Nagu Defence Edgar Majogo Education Juma Kapuya Energy & minerals Abdallah Kigoda Finance & planning Daniel Yona Foreign affairs Jakaya Kikwete Health Aaron Chiduo Home affairs Ali Ameir Mohammed Industry & trade William Shija Justice & constitutional affairs Bakari Mwapachu Labour & youth development Sebastian Kinyondo Lands, housing & urban development Gideon Cheyo Natural resources & tourism Zakia Meghji Science, technology & higher education Jackson Makweta Water & livestock development Pius Ng’wandu Works Anna Abdallah Central bank governor Idris Rashid EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 1998 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1998 Tanzania 5 Economic structure Latest available figures Economic indicators 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997a GDP at market pricesb (TSh bn) 1,404 1,823 2,395 2,999a 3,649 Real GDP growthb (%) 3.9 3.0 4.5 4.7 3.1 Consumer price inflationb (av; %) 25.3 33.0 29.8 19.6 16.1c Population (m) 28.0 28.8 29.7a 30.6a 31.5 Exports fob ($ m) 439 519 683 764 717 Imports cif ($ m) 1,540 1,540 1,576 1,388 1,338c Current-account balance ($ m) –770 –681 –629 –511 –570
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