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FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN DRY AREAS Proceedings of an International Conference 1-4 February 2010, Amman, Jordan Editors Mahmoud Solh and Mohan C. Saxena International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas Copyright © 2011 International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) All rights reserved. ICARDA encourages fair use of this material for non-commercial purposes, with proper citation. The opinions expressed are those of the authors, not necessarily those of ICARDA. Maps are used to illus- trate research data, not to show national or administrative boundaries. Where trade names are used, it does not imply endorsement of, or discrimination against, any product by ICARDA. Citation: Solh, M. and Saxena, M.C. (eds) 2011. Food security and climate change in dry areas: proceedings of an International Conference, 1-4 February 2010, Amman, Jordan. PO Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria: International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA). viii + 369 pp. ISBN 92-9127-248-5 International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) PO Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria Tel: +963 21 2213433, 2213477 Website www.icarda.org iii Contents I. Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 II. Plenary Presentations .............................................................................................................. 3 Ensuring food security in a changing climate: How can science and technology help? Mahmoud Solh .................................................................................................................................... 5 Changes in extreme climate events and their management in India Jagir S. Samra ..................................................................................................................................... 13 Impacts of climate change on food security and livelihoods Mark W. Rosegrant ................................................................................................................................ 24 Adapting to climate change: the importance of ex situ conservation of crop genetic diversity Luigi Guarino, Colin Khoury and Cary Fowler ................................................................................... 27 Faba bean and its importance for food security in the developing world José Ignacio Cubero Salmerón, Carmen Ávila and Ana Torres ......................................................... 35 Policy approaches for coping with climate change in the dry areas Peter Hazell .......................................................................................................................................... 42 Rethinking agricultural development of drylands: Challenges of climatic changes Awni Taimeh ......................................................................................................................................... 52 The Green Morocco Plan in relation to food security and climate change Mohamed Badraoui and Rachid Dahan ............................................................................................... 61 Addressing climate change and food security concerns in the Asia-Pacific region Raj Paroda ........................................................................................................................................... 71 III. Concurrent Session Presentations ....................................................................................... 77 Theme 1: Current status of climate change in the dry areas: simulations and scenarios available Analysis of Jordan vegetation cover dynamics using MODIS/NDVI from 2000 to 2009 Muna Saba, Ghada Al-Naber and Yasser Mohawesh .......................................................................... 79 Application of IHACRES rainfall-runoff model in semi arid areas of Jordan Eyad Abushandi and Broder Merkel .................................................................................................... 91 Generating a high-resolution climate raster dataset for climate change impact assessment in Central Asia and North West China Francois Delobel, Eddie De-Pauw and Wolfgang Göbel .................................................................... 98 iv Trend analysis for rainfall and temperatures at three locations in Jordan Yahya Shakhatreh ............................................................................................................................. 111 Monitoring vegetation characteristics and dynamics as a response to climatic variability in the Eastern Mediterranean regions of Jordan using long-term NDVI images Zeyad Makhamreha ........................................................................................................................ 115 Themes 2 and 3: Impacts of climate change on natural resource availability (especially water), agricultural production systems and environmental degradation, and on food security, livelihoods and poverty Land suitability study under current and climate change scenarios in the Karkheh river basin, Iran Abdolali Gaffari, Eddie De-Pauw and S.A. Mirghasemi ................................................................. 125 Climate change and water: Challenges and technological solutions in dry areas Mohammed Karrou and Theib Oweis .............................................................................................. 130 Unmet irrigation water demands due to climate change in the lower Jordan river basin Marc Haering, Emad Al-Karablieh and Amer Salman ..................................................................... 136 Strategic planning for water resources management and agricultural development for drought mitigation in Lebanon Fadi Karam and Selim Sarraf ......................................................................................................... 149 Impact of climate change and variability on diseases of food legumes in the dry areas Seid Ahmed, Imtiaz Muhammad, Shiv Kumar, Rajinder Malhotra and Fouad Maalouf ................ 157 Implications of climate change on insects: the case of cereal and legume crops in North Africa, West and Central Asia Mustapha El Bouhssini, S. Lhaloui, Ahmed Amri and A. Trissi ...................................................... 166 Climate change impact on weeds Barakat Abu Irmaileh ...................................................................................................................... 170 Is climate change driving indigenous livestock to extinction? A simulation study of Jordan's indigenous cattle Raed M. Al-Atiyat ............................................................................................................................... 176 Theme 4: Mitigation, adaptation and ecosystem resilience strategies including natural resource management and crop improvement Plant genetic resources management and discovering genes for designing crops resilient to changing climate Sudesh Sharma, I.S. Bisht and Ashutosh Sarker ................................................................................ 185 Role of dryland agrobiodiversity in adapting and mitigating the adverse effects of climate change Ahmed Amri, Kenneth Street, Jan Konopka, Ali Shehadeh and Bilal Humeid ........................................ 196 v Reviving beneficial genetic diversity in dryland agriculture: A key issue to mitigate climate change negative impacts Reza Hagpharast et al . ........................................................................................................................ 204 Plant breeding and climate change Salvatore Ceccarelli et al. ................................................................................................................. 209 Genotype x environment interaction for durum wheat yield in Iran under different climatic conditions and water regimes Reza Mohammadi et al. ...................................................................................................................... 221 Thermo-tolerance studies on barley varieties from arid and temperate regions Muhammad Naeem Shahwani and Peter Dominy ........................................................................... 228 Potential options for improving and stabilizing wheat yields in the context of climate change in WANA Mohammed Karrou and Osman Abdalla ......................................................................................... 237 Breeding food legumes for enhanced drought and heat tolerance to cope with climate change Fouad Maalouf, Imtiaz Muhammad, Shiv Kumar and Rajendra Malhotra .................................... 244 Community-based breeding programs to exploit genetic potential of adapted local sheep breeds in Ethiopia A. Haile et al. .................................................................................................................................... 255 New feeding strategies for Awassi sheep in drought affected areas and their effect on product quality Muhi El-Dine Hilali et al. ................................................................................................................. 263 Effect of grazing on range plant community characteristics of landscape depressions in arid pastoral ecosystems Mounir Louhaichi, Fahim Ghassali and Amin Khatib Salkini ....................................................... 272 Role of soil organic matter and balanced fertilization in combating land degradation in dry areas and sustaining crop productivity Anand Swarup
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