MERTHYR TYDFIL COUNTY BOROUGH COUNCIL Civic Centre, Castle Street, Merthyr Tydfil, CF47 8AN

Main Tel: 01685 725000 www.merthyr.gov.uk

FULL COUNCIL REPORT

Date Written 16 th January 2014 Report Author Lorraine Buck Service Area Schools Department Exempt/Non Exempt Non Exempt Committee Date 29 th January 2014

To: Mayor, Ladies and Gentlemen

Improving the Quality and Performance of Local Authority Education Services for Children and Young People

PURPOSE OF THE REPORT:

The report informs Councillors of the progress made in 2013 to enable the Council to fulfil its principal responsibility with respect to Education Services, namely that of raising standards and improving outcomes for learners.

1.0 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

1.1. In accordance with the Single Integrated Plan and the Council’s Corporate Plan this Council is committed to an inclusive education system that enables all individuals to fulfil their potential. This report provides an overview of how well our children and young people are attaining and how we as a Council are working with our schools and other key partners to address shortcomings, many of which are significant. A Glossary of terms is provided in Appendix 1.

1.2. The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2011 is the official measure of relative deprivation for small areas in Wales. This index classifies Merthyr Tydfil as the most deprived Local Authority (LA) in Wales.

1.3. The percentage of pupils eligible for free school meals (FSM) is used as an indicator of deprivation within education and it has been shown that there is a strong link between attainment and eligibility for free school meals. In 2013, the latest figures show Merthyr Tydfil CBC to be the fourth highest; therefore it is reasonable to expect that performance overall should be no lower than 19th out of the 22 Welsh local authorities.

2.0 CURRENT POSITION

2.1. Good features :

2.1.1. Positive trends in performance in the majority of key indicators at foundation phase, key stage 2 and key stage 3, and the rate of progress is faster than at a national level.

2.1.2. Key stage 4 performance increased across all indicators in 2013, with performance in 3 out of the 5 key indicators at or above expected performance levels.

2.1.3. Positive trend in key stage 2 performance for, Reading, Writing and Mathematics (RWM) and Reading, Writing, Mathematics and Science (RWMS) in combination where performance is ranked 17/22 and 16/22 when compared to other local authorities.

2.1.4. Reduction in the number and percentage of pupils leaving school without any recognised qualifications.

2.1.5. An increase in both secondary and primary school attendance rates, secondary school attendance in Merthyr Tydfil CBC is above the National average and ranked joint 4th out of 22 local authorities in Wales, primary school attendance in Merthyr Tydfil CBC is ranked 17 th out of 22 local authorities an improvement from 22 nd in 2012.

2.1.6. Gwaunfarren Primary school and Heolgerrig Community school have both been removed from Special Measures. 73% of schools are judged good or better for Outcomes achieved and attained by learners.

2.2. Shortcomings (those in bold are considered to be significant shortcomings):

2.2.1. Performance at Foundation phase, key stage 2 and key stage 3 is below national averages and expected performance levels. Performance ranks below 19 th for all the key indicators at the end of foundation phase (age 7), key stage 2 (age 11) and key stage 3 (age 14).

2.2.2. Performance at key stage 4 is significantly below the national average and expected performance levels in the most important indicator, the Level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and Mathematics. In 2013 61% of year 11 pupils left school without this important qualification.

2.2.3. Schools’ performance is also compared with other schools on the basis of free school meal eligibility. For all key indicators there are too many schools in the bottom 2 quarters. Performance at the secondary stage is particularly poor, at key stage 3, 3 out of 4 schools are below the median for the core subject indicator and at key stage 4, all schools are below the median for the level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and Mathematics indicator.

2.2.4. National reading and numeracy tests for years 2 to 9 show that pupils within Merthyr Tydfil CBC are not performing as well as pupils nationally and when compared with other local authorities’ performance is ranked 21/22.

2.2.5. Merthyr Tydfil CBC has no secondary schools in the higher Welsh Government performance bands 1 and 2. Pen-y-Dre high school has improved from band 5 to band 3, Afon Taf high school and Bishop Hedley High school have remained in band 4, Cyfarthfa High school has moved from band 3 to band 4.

2.2.6. At key stage 5, the percentage entering at least 2 A levels or equivalent who achieved the level 3 threshold decreased in 2013 and Merthyr Tydfil CBC is ranked 22 nd out of 22 local authorities in Wales.

2.2.7. The percentage of pupils achieving above the expected outcome (an indication of the performance of more able and talented learners) at the foundation phase and at key stages 2 and 3 are below the national average in all areas of learning and subjects.

2.2.8. Girls outperform boys in all key indicators at each key stage. The trend in performance for both boys and girls at the foundation phase, key stage 2 and key stage 3 is positive however girls have improved at a faster rate than boys in the majority of areas of learning and subjects therefore the gender gap has increased.

3.0 STANDARDS

3.1 Foundation phase outcome results replaced key stage 1 assessments in 2012. The trend in performance at outcome level 5 and above is positive in all mandatory areas of learning (MAL). Performance is below the national average for all mandatory areas of learning except Language, literacy and communication skills in Welsh first language. However the rate of progress is faster than at a national level. Local authority targets were exceeded in Language, literacy and communication skills in Welsh first language and Personal social development but performance in all other mandatory areas of learning was below targets.

When compared to other local authorities Merthyr Tydfil CBC is ranked 22 nd out of 22 in all mandatory areas of learning except Language, literacy and communication skills in Welsh first language which is ranked 6 th out of 22.

Benchmarking of schools on the basis of free school meals shows that 50% of schools are above the median for the foundation phase outcome indicator however there are too many schools in the bottom quarter and not enough schools in the top quarter.

3.2. At key stage 2 (KS2) the trend in performance at level 4 and above is positive over the last 3 years in all core subjects except Welsh 1st language. Performance is below the national average for all core subjects however where performance has increased the rate of progress is faster than at a national level. Local authority targets were exceeded in all core subjects except Mathematics.

When compared to other local authorities Merthyr Tydfil CBC is ranked 21 st out of 22 for English and the Core subject indicator and 22/22 for both mathematics and science.

Benchmarking of schools on the basis of free school meals shows that the percentage of schools above the median for the key stage 2 core subject indicator has increased over the last 3 years, however there are still too many schools below the median and too few schools in the top quarter.

Value added information for key stage 2 shows performance at the core subject indicator is slightly better than expected when taking into account local authority and pupil context.

3.3. At key stage 3 (KS3) the trend in performance at level 5 and above is positive over the last 3 years in all core subjects. Performance is below the national average of all core subjects however the rate of progress is faster than at a national level. Local authority targets were exceeded in Science but performance in all other subjects was below targets.

When compared to other local authorities Merthyr Tydfil CBC is ranked 21 st out of 22 for English, Mathematics and the core subject indicator. Science is ranked 22 nd out of 22.

Benchmarking of schools on the basis of free school meals shows that 3 out of 4 schools are below the median for the key stage 3 core subject indicator, however the number of schools in the bottom quarter has decreased.

Value added information for key stage 3 shows performance in all core subjects and the core subject indicator is slightly better than expected when taking only prior attainment into consideration (model 1), when contextual information is included (model 2) performance is significantly better than expected. Value added performance at key stage 3 is in the top quarter for all subjects and the core subject indicator based on model 2.

3.4. At key stage 4 (KS4) in 2013 performance improved compared with 2012 in all of the main five indicators. Performance in the main Level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and Mathematics indicator increased by 6.2 percentage points however this was 14.0 percentage points below the national average. The rate of improvement since 2009 is faster than the rate of improvement nationally for the level 1 and level 2 threshold indicators but slower for the Level 2 threshold including English\Welsh and Mathematics indicator and the core subject indicator. Local authority targets were exceeded for the level 1 and level 2 thresholds, targets for the level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and Mathematics indicator and the core subject indicator were not met.

When compared to other local authorities Merthyr Tydfil CBC performance is ranked at or above expected performance levels in three of the five main indicators, level 2 threshold 19 th out of 22, level 1 threshold 16 th out of 22, Capped points score 19 th out of 22. However performance in the main Level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and Mathematics indicator is ranked joint 22 nd out of 22 and the core subject indicator is ranked 21 st out of 22.

Benchmarking schools on the basis of free school meals shows that all schools are in the bottom 2 quarters for the key level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and Mathematics indicator.

Value added for key stage 4 shows performance at the Level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and Mathematics and the Core Subject Indicators are significantly below expected for model 1 but not for model 2. Performance at the other key stage 4 indicators is significantly better than expected when compared to key stage 3 prior attainment and is in the top quarter, however when compared to key stage 2 prior attainment value added performance is significantly better than expected in some but not all other indicators.

3.5. At key stage 5, the percentage entering at least 2 A levels or equivalent who achieved the level 3 threshold decreased in 2013 from 96.2% to 92.4%. When compared to other local authorities Merthyr Tydfil CBC is ranked 22 nd out of 22.

3.6. The performance of specific groups of learners :

3.6.1. More able and talented The percentage of pupils achieving above the expected level at the foundation phase and at key stages 2 and 3 are below the national average in all areas of learning and subjects.

At foundation phase the Merthyr Tydfil CBC average for pupils achieving outcome level 6+ was below the national average by between 5.0 to 13.2 percentage points in the mandatory areas of learning.

At key stage 2 the Merthyr Tydfil CBC average for pupils achieving level 5 or above was below the national average by between1.2 to 6.6 percentage points in the core subjects.

At key stage 3 the Merthyr Tydfil CBC average for pupils achieving level 6 or above was below the national average by between 7.0 to 14.3 percentage points in the core subjects.

Benchmarking of schools on the basis of free school meals shows that there are over 50% of schools below the median for foundation phase outcome 6+ in all mandatory areas of learning except Language, literacy and communication in English, where exactly 50% of schools are below the median. At key stage 2 benchmarking of schools on the basis of free school meals shows that there are too many schools below the median for level 5+ in English and Science, exactly 50% below the median for Mathematics and 100% (2/2 schools) above the median for Welsh first language. At key stage 3 benchmarking of schools on the basis of free school meals shows that 50% (2/4 schools) of schools are below the median for English level 6+, 25% (1/4 schools) of schools are below the median for Mathematics level 6+ with 50% (2/4 schools) of schools being in quarter 1, however all schools are below the median for Science level 6+.

3.6.2. Gender

Girls outperform boys in all key indicators at each key stage. The trend in performance for both boys and girls at the foundation phase, key stage 2 and key stage 3 is positive however girls have improved at a faster rate than boys in the majority of areas of learning and subjects therefore the gender gap has increased.

At the foundation phase the rate of progress for girls is faster than at a national level in all mandatory areas of learning except Language, literacy and communication skills in Welsh first language. The rate of progress for boys is faster than at a national level for Language, literacy and communication skills in both English and Welsh first language; however the rate of progress is slower than at a national level for Mathematical development and Personal Social development.

At key stage 2 the rate of progress for girls is faster than at a national level in all core subjects. The rate of progress for boys is faster than at a national level in all core subjects except Welsh first language and Mathematics.

At key stage 3 the rate of progress for girls is faster than at a national level in all core subjects and the difference between the performance of girls within Merthyr Tydfil CBC and girls nationally has narrowed significantly. There is a large difference between the performance of boys within Merthyr Tydfil CBC and boys nationally.

At key stage 4 the performance of both girls and boys has improved across all indicators, however girls have improved at a faster rate than boys in the level 2 threshold including English\Welsh and Mathematics indicator and the core subject indicator therefore the gender gap has widened. Boys have improved at a faster rate than girls in the level 1 threshold indicator therefore the gap has reduced to 1 percentage point. National comparison on the basis of gender is not yet possible as the information has not yet been published.

3.6.3. Free school meal eligibility Data has not yet been made available on the performance of pupils eligible and not eligible for free school meals (FSM).

3.6.4. Ethnic minority pupils Data has not yet been made available on the performance on ethnic minority pupils.

3.6.5. Special educational needs (SEN) Pupils identified with Special Educational needs are outperformed by pupils not identified with SEN at all key stages. National figures for 2013 are not yet available, however when compared to national figures for 2012, pupils identified as school action and school action plus perform better than pupils nationally at foundation phase, key stage 2 and key stage 3. However pupils with a statement of SEN do not perform as well as those nationally. Information on the performance of pupils identified as SEN at key stage 4 is not yet available.

3.6.6. Looked after children The performance of looked after children is variable due to the small numbers of pupils within the cohort. However the achievement levels of looked after children remain some way below that of all other pupils.

3.6.7. Pupils leaving school without a recognised qualification In 2013, the percentage of pupils leaving full time education with no recognised qualification was 0.1% compared with 0.3% in 2012. Performance was 0.2 percentage points above the national average, ranked equal 7 th with; Neath Port Talbot, Swansea, Pembrokeshire and Torfaen.

3.6.8. Young people Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEETs) Provisional figures show that 2.1% (17) of pupils who were in year 11 in the 2012/13 academic year are currently not in education, employment or training (NEET), this is an improvement on the figures from 2012 when 6.2% (44) of pupils were NEET.

3.6.9. National reading and numeracy tests National reading and numeracy tests were introduced for years 2 to 9 for the first time in 2013. The results of national tests are expressed in terms of standardised scores rather than reading ages, with results being split into three bands, pupils with standardised scores less than 85, pupils with standardised scores between 85 and 115 and pupils with standardised scores above 115.

National reading test results for years 2 to 9 show that pupils within Merthyr Tydfil CBC are not performing as well as pupils nationally. The percentage of pupils achieving a standardised score of 85 or above is 2.3% lower within Merthyr Tydfil CBC than nationally. Results for years 2 and 3 are significantly better than other year groups and are only slightly below national averages. When compared to other local authorities performance is ranked 21 st out of 22.

National numeracy test results for years 2 to 9 show that pupils within Merthyr Tydfil CBC are not performing as well as pupils nationally. The percentage of pupils achieving a standardised score of 85 or above is 4.6% lower within Merthyr Tydfil CBC than nationally. When compared to other local authorities performance is ranked 21 st out of 22.

4.0 BANDING

4.1. The Welsh Government introduced a banding system for secondary schools in 2011. Schools are placed into one of the five bands based on performance at key stage 4. Schools in band 1 are considered to be performing well and schools in band 5 are seen as needing to improve. As stated above in 2013 Pen-y-Dre high school improved from band 5 to band 3, Afon Taf high school and Bishop Hedley High school have remained in band 4, Cyfarthfa High school has moved from band 3 to band 4.

5.0 SCHOOL ATTENDANCE

5.1. In 2013, Primary school attendance increased by 0.4% from 2012 figures to 93.3% which is below the national average. When compared to other local authorities Merthyr Tydfil CBC is ranked 17 th out of 22, an improvement from a rank of 22 nd in 2012. The rate of improvement in Merthyr Tydfil CBC since 2009 is faster than the rate of improvement nationally.

Percentage of school sessions missed due to all absences Local Authority 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Merthyr Tydfil 8.3 8.1 7.6 7.1 6.7 Wales Average 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.2 6.3 All Wales’ Ranking 22 nd 22 nd 21 st 22 nd 17 th

5.2. In 2013, Secondary school attendance increased by 0.9% from 2012 figures to 93.3% and is above the national average. When compared to other local authorities Merthyr Tydfil CBC is ranked joint 4 th out of 22. The rate of improvement in Merthyr Tydfil CBC since 2009 is faster than the rate of improvement nationally. Benchmarking of schools on the basis of free school meals shows that all secondary schools are in the top quarter.

Percentage of school sessions missed due to all absences Local Authority 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Merthyr Tydfil 9.2 9.1 8.6 7.6 6.7 Wales average 9.0 8.9 8.6 7.8 7.4 All Wales’ Ranking 14 th 13 th 12 th 12 th 4th

6.0 EXCLUSIONS FROM SCHOOL

6.1. There have been no permanent exclusions from Primary schools for the last 2 years. The number of fixed term exclusions and the number of days lost due to fixed term exclusions in primary schools increased in 2013. National figures for 2013 have not yet been released.

6.2. There was 1 permanent exclusion from secondary schools in 2013. The number of fixed term exclusions from secondary schools has decreased in 2013 which has resulted in a 47% reduction in the number of days lost due to fixed term exclusions. National figures for 2013 have not yet been released.

7.0 SCHOOL ESTYN INSPECTION OUTCOMES

7.1. Since September 2010 there has been a new inspection framework in operation. This has reduced the number of key questions reported on in inspection reports from seven to three. In the new framework overall judgements are made about: • the school’s current performance; and • the school’s prospects for improvement.

7.2. The judgements used in the new framework are: • Excellent: many strengths, including significant examples of sector-leading practice; • Good: many strengths and no important areas requiring significant improvement; • Adequate: strengths outweigh areas for improvement; and • Unsatisfactory: important areas for improvement outweigh strengths.

7.3. 13 primary schools, 1 nursery school, no secondary schools and 1 special school have been inspected under the new framework and the reports have been published. A further 3 schools have been inspected in the autumn term 2013 but reports detailing the outcomes of these inspections are yet to be published. Outcomes are as set out below. The figures given are for the percentage of schools receiving a judgement of good or better.

Judgement area Percentage of schools judged good or be tter Overall: Current performance 73%

Overall: Prospects for improvement 73%

KQ1: How good are outcomes? 73%

KQ2: How good is provision? 80%

KQ3: How good are leadership and 73% management?

7.4. Following inspection schools can be placed into a number of categories which result in a differing degree of follow-up activity. These categories are: Local Authority Follow-up; Estyn Monitoring; Significant Improvement and Special Measures. Currently within Merthyr Tydfil CBC, St Aloysius RC Primary school is in local authority follow-up and Bedlinog Community Primary school is in Estyn monitoring. Gwaunfarren Primary school and Heolgerrig Community School have both been removed from Special Measures during the past year.

8.0 FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS

8.1 There are no specific financial implications associated with this report that can be provided at this point in time.

9.0 SINGLE INTEGRATED PLAN AND SUSTAINABILITY IMPACT SUMMARY

9.1 The Single Integrated Plan and Sustainability Impact Assessment has been completed and the proposals positively impact on most of the priority outcomes.

9.2 Learning for Life will be positively enhanced as the education services and educational outcomes are improved within the County Borough. No negative Impacts have been identified.

10.0 EQUALITY IMPACT ASSESSMENT

10.1 An Equality Impact Assessment (EqIA) screening form has been prepared for the purpose of this report. It has been found that a full report is not required at this time. The screening form can be accessed on the Council’s website/intranet via the ‘Equality Impact Assessment’ link.

11.0 RECOMMENDATION(S) that

11.1 the contents of this report are noted and that further reports are received by Council as necessary on progress in delivering the actions taken in prioritising improvement in Education as set out in the Post Inspection Action Plan.

GIOVANNI ISINGRINI DIRECTOR OF COMMUNITY SERVICES

BACKGROUND PAPERS Title of Document(s) Document(s) Date Document Location

Consultation has been undertaken with the Corporate Management Team in respect of each proposal(s) and recommendation(s) set out in this report. Appendix 1 Glossary of Terms

Comparators Family of Comparison between similar schoo ls sc hoo ls A small group of schools that is similar because they face similar challenges.

Free Schoo l Comparison between similar schoo ls Mea ls A larger group of schools that is similar because they have a similar % of pupil s Benchmarking in receipt of FSMs. (FSM) The bands are up to 10%, 10%-15%, 15%- 20%, 20%-30% above 30% for secondary. The bands are up to 8%, 8%-16%, 16%-24%, 24%-32% above 32% for primary. WAG Value Comparison between pupils’ prior and current att ainment Added An analysis of how well children perform relative to prior attainment. Summ ary

Gloss ary Found ation Nursery, reception and Years 1-2. ph ase KS2 Key Stage 2 Years 3-6. KS3 Key Stage 3 Years 7-9. KS4 Key Stage 4 Years 10-11. KS5 Key Stage 5 Years 12-13. Level 4+ Expected level of attainment at the end of KS2. Level 5+ Expected level of attainment at the end of KS3. Level 6+ Expected level of attainment plus one level at the end of KS3. CSI Core subject Indicator. To achieve the CSI children must attain level 5+ in English, mathematics and science. Core sub jects The core subjects are English, mathematics and science. Found ation The foundation subjects are all the other subjects other than the core sub jects subjects. ATs Attainment Targets in English. These are oracy, reading and writing. RWM Attainment at level 5+ in reading, writing and mathematics in combination.

RWM+S Attainment at level 5+ in reading, writing, mathematics and science in combination. FSM BMQ Free School Meal Benchmark Quarter position. Attainment in a FSM band is divided into 4 quarters, two above the median and two below the median. WAG VA Welsh Assembly Government Value Added summary. An indication of how summ ary well pupils perform compared to prior attainment and estimated performance. Attainment Attainment in national tests, the qualifications that they gain. Achievement Attainment measured against estimated performance based on prior attainment. L1TH Volume of qualifications equivalent to 5 GCSE’s at A*-G. L2TH Volume of qualifications equivalent to 5 GCSE’s at A*-C. L2TH+ Volume of qualifications equivalent to 5 GCSE’s at A*-C including English and mathematics. CWPS Capped Wider Points Score. The quality of qualifications attained across the 8 highest scoring GCSEs. L3TH Volume of qualifications equivalent to 2 A levels at grades A-E.

Appendix 2 Performance Summary

1.0 Introduction

1.1 The following report is a detailed summary of the performance of schools within Merthyr Tydfil CBC at each of the Statutory assessment points: i Foundation Phase ii Key stage 2 iii Key stage 3 iv Key stage 4 v Key stage 5

1.2 Performance can be evaluated on a number of factors: i Trends in performance and the rate of growth ii Attainment when compared with the national average iii Rank and position when compared with 22 Welsh local authorities and compared with the local authority rank for free school meal (FSM) eligibility. As the authority has the third highest levels FSM eligibility performance is expected to be ranked at least 20 th out of 22 local authorities. iv How well our schools perform compared to similar schools – schools are grouped into bands according to the proportion of pupils entitled to FSM, schools are then divided into four quarters based on performance, 25% of the schools in each FSM band fall within each quarter. Schools in quarter 1 are the best performing schools within the FSM band, whereas schools in quarter 4 are the worst performing schools. Across all schools within a local authority you would expect to see 25% of schools falling within each quarter. v At KS4 how well our schools perform using the Banding metrics vi Value added information, takes into account prior attainment to evaluate the impact a school has had on outcomes.

2.0 Foundation Phase

2.1 Performance at foundation phase was assessed for the first time in 2012. Teachers provide an assessment of a pupils level of attainment in the form of an outcome level in a number of areas of learning. There are three mandatory areas of learning: • language, literacy and communication skills in English (LLCE) or Welsh first language (LLCW) • mathematical development (MD) • personal and social development, well-being and cultural diversity (PSD)

2.2 Pupils are expected to achieve an outcome level 5 or above at the end of the foundation phase.

2.3 School and local authority performance can be compared for each of the mandatory areas of learning and for the foundation phase outcome indicator (FPOI) which represents where a pupil has obtained an outcome level 5 or above in all of the mandatory areas of learning.

2.4 Foundation Phase results - percentage of pupils achieving outcome level 5 or above:

Area of Learning MTCBC Wales Difference from Wales average LA Rank

LLCE 79.3 85.2 -5.9 22

LLCW 88.5 86.7 1.8 6

MD 81.7 87.4 -5.7 22

PSD 89.7 93.0 -3.3 22

FPOI 77.8 83.0 -5.2 22

FPOI Boys 73.4 78.9 -5.5

FPOI Girls 82.7 87.3 -4.6 FPOI Boys vs. Girls -9.3 -8.4 -0.9

2.5 Performance is below national averages in all areas of learning except language, literacy and communication skills in Welsh first language.

2.6 Performance is ranked 22nd out of 22 for all mandatory areas of learning except language, literacy and communication skills in Welsh first language which is ranked 6th.

2.7 Girls out perform boys in all mandatory areas of learning, the difference between the performance of boys and girls in the FPOI is greater than the difference nationally.

2.8 FPOI LA comparison – Percentage of schools in each quarter when performance is compared on the basis of FSM:

2.9 When compared to similar schools on the basis of FSM eligibility Merthyr Tydfil CBC has 50% of schools in the lower two quarters. Compared with other local authorities in Wales the county borough has the 11th highest percentage of schools in the bottom quarter.

2.10 Foundation Phase Outcome Indicator – Historic Performance

2.11 In 2013 the results of foundation phase assessments were higher than in 2012 in all mandatory areas of learning and the foundation phase outcome indicator. The rate of progress is faster than at a national level.

3.0 Key Stage 2

3.1 Teachers provide an assessment of a pupils level of attainment in the form of national curriculum level in a number of subjects. There are three core subjects: • English/Welsh first language • Mathematics • Science

3.2 Pupils are expected to achieve a level 4 or above at the end of key stage 2.

3.3 School and local authority performance can be compared for each of the core subjects and for the key stage 2 Core Subject Indicator (CSI) which represents where a pupil has obtained a level 4 or above in all of the core subjects.

3.4 Key stage 2 results - percentage of pupils achieving level 4 or above:

Difference from Wales Subject MTCBC Wales average LA Rank

English 84.2 87.1 -2.9 21

Welsh 1 st language 85.4 86.7 -1.3 NA

Mathematics 84.0 87.5 -3.5 22

Science 85.6 89.7 -4.1 22

CSI 81.2 84.3 -3.1 21

CSI Boys 77.5 81.4 -3.9

CSI Girls 85.4 87.5 -2.1

CSI Boys vs. Girls -7.9 -6.1 -1.8

3.5 Performance is below national averages in all core subjects.

3.6 Performance is the lowest in Wales for mathematics and science. Performance is ranked 21st out of 22 local authorities in English and the core subject indicator.

3.7 Girls outperform boys in all core subjects, the difference between the performance of boys and girls in the CSI is greater than the difference nationally.

3.8 Key stage 2 CSI – Historic Performance:

3.9 In 2013, the results of key stage 2 teacher assessments were higher than in 2012 in all core subjects except Welsh first language. The rate of improvement since 2009 is above the rate of improvement nationally in English, Mathematics and the CSI but below in Welsh 1st language and Science.

3.10 Key Stage 2 CSI local authority comparison – Percentage of schools in each quarter when performance is compared on the basis of FSM:

3.11 When compared to similar schools on the basis of FSM eligibility Merthyr Tydfil CBC has too many schools in the lower 2 quarters. Compared with other local authorities in Wales the county borough has the 4th highest percentage of schools in the bottom quarter.

4.0 Key stage 3

4.1 Teachers provide an assessment of a pupils level of attainment in the form of national curriculum level in a number of subjects. There are three core subjects: • English • Mathematics • Science

4.2 Pupils are expected to achieve a level 5 or above at the end of key stage 3.

4.3 School and local authority performance can be compared for each of the core subjects and for the key stage 3 Core Subject Indicator (CSI) which represents where a pupil has obtained a level 5 or above in all of the core subjects.

4.4 Key stage 3 results - percentage of pupils achieving level 5 or above:

Subject MTCBC Wales Difference from Wales average LA Rank

English 75.6 82.9 -7.3 21

Mathematics 76.9 83.9 -7.0 21

Science 81.3 87.0 -5.7 22

CSI 68.9 77.0 -8.1 21

CSI Boys 59.1 72.4 -13.3

CSI Girls 79.6 81.9 -2.3

CSI Boys vs. Girls -20.5 -9.5 -11.0

4.5 Performance is below national averages in all core subjects.

4.6 When compared to local authorities in Wales, performance is ranked 21st out of 22 for all indicators except science which is ranked 22nd.

4.7 Girls outperform boys in all core subjects, the difference between the performance of boys and girls in the CSI is greater than the difference nationally.

4.8 Key stage 3 CSI – Historic Performance:

4.9 In 2013, the results of key stage 3 teacher assessments were higher than in 2012 in all core subjects and the CSI. The rate of improvement since 2009 is slower than the rate of improvement nationally in all core subjects except Science.

4.10 Key Stage 3 CSI local authority comparison – Percentage of schools in each quarter when performance is compared on the basis of FSM:

4.11 When compared to similar schools on the basis of FSM eligibility Merthyr Tydfil CBC has too many schools in the bottom 2 quarters. Compared with other local authorities in Wales the county borough has the 11th highest percentage of schools in the bottom quarter.

5.0 Key Stage 4

5.1 Performance at key stage 4 is based on the results of external examinations taken by pupils in year 11. Performance of schools and local authorities at key stage 4 is judged against a number of key indictors: i Level 2 Threshold including English/Welsh and mathematics (Level 2+) - a volume of qualifications at Level 2 equivalent to the volume of 5 GCSEs at grade A*-C including a level 2 theshold in English or Welsh first language and mathematics ii Level 2 Threshold - a volume of qualifications at Level 2 equivalent to the volume of 5 GCSEs at grade A*-C iii Level 1 Threshold - a volume of qualifications at Level 1 equivalent to the volume of 5 GCSEs at grade A*-G iv Core Subject Indicator - achieved the Level 2 threshold in each of English or Welsh first language, mathematics and science v Average capped wider points score – each qualification has a points value, the average capped wider points score is calculated using the best 8 results for each pupil and adding their points values.

5.2 Key stage 4 results – percentage of pupils achieving indicator:

Difference from Wales Indicator MTCBC Wales average LA Rank

Level 2+ 38.7 52.7 -14.0 22

Level 2 72.9 77.8 -4.9 19

Level 1 92.7 93.2 -0.5 16

CSI 36.3 49.2 -12.9 21 Average capped wider points score* 322.0 333.1 -11.1 19

Level 2+ Boys 31 NA NA

Level 2+ Girls 46 NA NA

Level 2+ Boys vs. Girls -15 NA

* The average capped wider points score is a points value not a percentage

5.3 Performance is below national averages for all key indicators.

5.4 When compared to local authorities in Wales, performance is ranked between 16th and 22nd out of 22 for all indicators, performance in the key level 2 threshold including English\Welsh and Mathematics indicator is the joint lowest in Wales.

5.5 Girls outperform boys in all key indicators.

5.6 Key stage 4 level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and Mathematics – Historic Performance:

5.7 Performance was higher in 2013 compared to the previous year in all of the main indicators. Performance in the key level 2 threshold including English\Welsh and Mathematics indicator was 6.2% higher than the previous year.

5.8 Key Stage 4 level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and mathematics local authority comparison – Percentage of schools in each quarter when performance is compared on the basis of FSM:

Not yet available

6.0 Key stage 5

6.1 Performance at key stage 5 is based on the results of external examinations taken by pupils in year 13. Performance of schools and local authorities at key stage 5 is judged against two indicators:

i Level 3 threshold – percentage of aged 17 pupils entering a volume equivalent to 2 A levels who achieved a volume of qualifications at Level 3 equivalent to the volume of 2 A levels at grade A-E ii Average wider points score for pupils aged 17 - each qualification has a points value, which are added together to give the wider points score

6.2 Key stage 5 results – percentage of pupils achieving indicator

Difference from Wales Indicator MTCBC Wales average LA Rank

Level 3 threshold 92.4 96.5 -4.1 22 Average wider points score for 768.5 806.6 -38.1 15 pupils aged 17

6.3 The level 3 threshold decreased in 2013 from 96.2% to 92.4%. When compared to other local authorities Merthyr Tydfil CBC is ranked 22 nd out of 22.

7.0 Banding

7.1 The Welsh Government introduced a banding system for secondary schools in 2011. Schools are placed into one of five bands based on performance at KS4. Band 1 schools are those whose data show good overall performance and progress, band 5 schools are those where performance and progress are weak relative to other schools.

7.2 The secondary model uses four groups of data: i level 2 threshold including English/Welsh and mathematics ii capped points score iii attendance iv English/Welsh and mathematics average points scores.

7.3 Within each data group, relative performance is measured to take account of a selection of: i actual performance ii progress over time and, iii performance relative to context and cohort.

7.4 Each of the data groups is given a score, these scores are then combined for all four data groups to give each school a total score. These scores are then assigned to bands as follows:

Band Score Range 1 11.0 to 17.6 2 17.6 to 24.2 3 24.2 to 30.8 4 30.8 to 37.4 5 37.4 to 44.0

7.5 The scores and bands for Merthyr Tydfil CBC Schools for the last 3 years were as follows:

School 2013 2013 2012 2012 2011 2011 Band Score Band Score Band Score Afon Taf High School 4 34.0 4 37.0 5 39 Bishop Hedley High School 4 33.0 4 32.5 4 32 Cyfarthfa High School 4 35.0 3 28.5 2 20 Pen-y-dre High School 3 27.0 5 39.5 2 23

7.6 Pen-y-dre High school were the only school to improve their banding position, Bishop Hedley High school and Afon taf high school stayed in band 4 and Cyfarthfa High school moved from band 3 to band 4. 75% of schools in Merthyr Tydfil CBC were in the bottom 2 bands in 2013.

7.7 The Minister has made clear his expectation that local authorities should participate in consortia arrangements to raise standards and performance across the board. Merthyr Tydfil CBC is within the South Central consortium and is working in partnership with, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Cardiff, Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan to provide School Improvement services.

7.8 Banding summary by consortia

7.9 A comparison of the five consortia across Wales shows that the south central and south east consortia have considerably more schools in bands 4 and 5 than the other 2 consortia.

7.10 Merthyr Tydfil CBC has the highest proportion of schools in bands 4 and 5 within the South Central consortium and is the only local authority in the south central consortium with no schools in bands 1 or 2.

7.11 In 2013 Merthyr Tydfil CBC has no schools in Band 5 with 3 schools in band 4

School LA 2011 Band 2012 Band 2013 Band Archbishop McGrath Catholic School Bridgend Band 2 Band 3 Band 4 Brynteg School Bridgend Band 5 Band 4 Band 2 Bryntirion Comprehensive. Bridgend Band 5 Band 4 Band 3 Coleg Cymunedol Y Dderwen Bridgend . Band 4 Band 5 Cynffig Comprehensive Bridgend Band 2 Band 2 Band 4 Maesteg Comprehensive School Bridgend Band 3 Band 2 Band 3 Ogmore School Bridgend Band 5 . . Pencoed Comprehensive Bridgend Band 5 Band 3 Band 2 Porthcawl Comprehensive School Bridgend Band 1 Band 2 Band 3 Ynysawdre Comprehensive School Bridgend Band 3 . . Ysgol Gyfun Gymraeg Llangynwyd Bridgend . . . Barry Comprehensive School The Vale of Glamorgan Band 4 Band 3 Band 5 Bryn Hafren Comprehensive School The Vale of Glamorgan Band 2 Band 3 Band 3 Cowbridge Comprehensive School The Vale of Glamorgan Band 2 Band 2 Band 2 Llantwit Major School The Vale of Glamorgan Band 4 Band 4 Band 4 St Cyres School The Vale of Glamorgan Band 3 Band 3 Band 4 St Richard Gwyn Catholic High School The Vale of Glamorgan Band 3 Band 1 Band 3 Stanwell School The Vale of Glamorgan Band 2 Band 1 Band 1 Ysgol Gyfun Bro Morgannwg The Vale of Glamorgan Band 1 Band 4 Band 1 Aberdare Girls' School Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 1 Band 3 Band 4 Aberdare High School Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 4 Band 5 Band 3 Blaengwawr Comprehensive Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 4 Band 4 Band 3 Bryncelynnog Comprehensive School Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 3 Band 4 Band 4 Cardinal Newman R.C. Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 2 Band 2 Band 2 Ferndale Community School Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 4 Band 5 Band 1 Hawthorn High School Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 4 Band 4 Band 3 Mountain Ash Comprehensive School Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 2 Band 3 Band 2 Porth County Community Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 4 Band 5 Band 5 St.John Baptist High School Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 3 Band 3 Band 2 The Pontypridd High School Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 5 Band 5 Band 4 Tonypandy Community College Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 4 Band 4 Band 4 Tonyrefail School Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 5 Band 4 Band 5 Treorchy Comprehensive School Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 1 Band 3 Band 2 Y Pant Comprehensive Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 2 Band 1 Band 1 Ysgol Gyfun Cymer Rhondda Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 4 Band 5 Band 3 Ysgol Gyfun Garth Olwg Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 5 Band 4 Band 4 Ysgol Gyfun Llanhari Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 4 Band 4 Band 5 Ysgol Gyfun Rhydywaun Rhondda Cynon Taf Band 4 Band 5 Band 3 Afon Taf High School Merthyr Tydfil Band 5 Band 4 Band 4 Bishop Hedley High School Merthyr Tydfil Band 4 Band 4 Band 4 Cyfarthfa High School Merthyr Tydfil Band 2 Band 3 Band 4 Pen-y-Dre High School Merthyr Tydfil Band 2 Band 5 Band 3 Cantonian High School Cardiff Band 5 Band 4 Band 3 School LA 2011 Band 2012 Band 2013 Band Cardiff High School Cardiff Band 2 Band 2 Band 2 Cathays High School Cardiff Band 3 Band 3 Band 4 Corpus Christi Catholic High School Cardiff Band 3 Band 4 Band 3 Fitzalan High School Cardiff Band 2 Band 2 Band 3 Glyn Derw High School Cardiff Band 5 Band 3 Band 4 Llanedeyrn High Cardiff Band 3 Band 4 Band 4 Llanishen Cardiff Band 2 Band 3 Band 4 Llanrumney High School Cardiff Band 5 Band 5 Band 5 Mary Immaculate High School Cardiff Band 1 Band 1 Band 3 Michaelston Community College Cardiff Band 4 Band 4 Band 5 Radyr Comprehensive School Cardiff Band 3 Band 3 Band 3 Rumney High School Cardiff Band 4 Band 4 Band 5 St Teilo's C-in-W High School Cardiff Band 4 Band 3 Band 2 St. Illtyd's Catholic High School Cardiff Band 3 Band 5 Band 5 The Bishop of Llandaff Cardiff Band 1 Band 3 Band 4 Whitchurch High School Cardiff Band 3 Band 3 Band 4 Willows High School Cardiff Band 5 Band 4 Band 3 Ysgol Gyfun Gymraeg Glantaf Cardiff Band 2 Band 3 Band 2 Ysgol Gyfun Gymraeg Plasmawr Cardiff Band 2 Band 3 Band 3

8.0 Value Added

8.1 Value added information compares how a pupil is expected to acheive based on their prior attainment with how they actually achieve, therefore:

Value Added = Actual – Estimate

A positive value added score indicates that performance is better than expected; a negative value added score indicates that performance is below what was expected.

8.2 Welsh Government provide schools and local authorities with value added information based on 2 models

i Model 1 takes into account each pupil's prior-attainment based on teacher assessment. All Teacher Assessments contribute to all outputs but are given different weightings. For example, both the Maths KS2 TA and the English KS2 TA (alongside other attainment data) are used to calculate the KS3 Maths TA estimate, but the Maths KS2 TA would be given a greater weighting than the English KS2 TA. ii Model 2 is as Model 1 but also takes into account; • Free School Meal entitlement at a pupil level • 2 school level deprivation factors; Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation and Acorn • Pupil age in months • Pupil gender • Pupil ethnicity • 2 pupil mobility (movement) factors: Changed school, (but started in a new school) at the beginning of the academic year and Length of time at current school

8.3 Value added information is provided for key stage 3 performance based on key stage 2 teacher assessment and for key stage 4 based on either key stage 2 or key stage 3 teacher assessments.

8.4 Value added information for key stage 3 shows performance at the Core Subject Indicator is better than expected when taking only prior attainment into consideration (model1), when contextual information is included (model 2) performance is significantly better than expected for all indicators. Value added performance is in the top quarter for all subjects at KS3 based on model 2.

8.5 Key stage 3 (matched to prior-attainment at key stage 2)

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Indicator Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2 CSI -10.6% (4) -6.0% (4) -3.0% (3) 0.9% (2) 1.0% (3) 4.4% (1)

Mean Level -0.2 (4) -0.1 (4) -0.1 (3) 0.0 (1) 0.0 (3) 0.1 (1)

English (Level 5+) -6.4% (4) -2.6% (4) -1.6% (3) 1.3% (2) 1.3% (2) 4.7% (1)

Maths (Level 5+) -7.8% (4) -4.9% (4) -0.7% (3) 2.1% (1) 0.5% (3) 2.6% (1)

Science (Level 5+) -8.1% (4) -4.5% (4) -1.5% (3) 1.6% (1) 1.1% (2) 4.1% (1)

8.6 Value added for key stage 4 shows performance at the Level 2 threshold including English\Welsh and Mathematics and the Core Subject Indicators are significantly below expected for model 1 but not for model 2. Performance at the other key stage 4 indicators is significantly better than expected when compared to key stage 3 prior attainment and is in the top quarter, however when compared to key stage 2 prior attainment value added performance significantly better than expected in some but not all other indicators.

8.7 Key stage 4 (matched to prior-attainment at key stage 3)

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Indicator Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2 Wider points Score -20.7 (3) -8.5 (3) 29.7 (1) 38.1 (1) 45.7 (1) 43.4 (1)

Capped Points -9.7 (4) -2.1 (3) 2.8 (2) 8.9 (1) 11.6 (1) 13.8 (1) Score

Level 2 Threshold -1.8% (3) 2.2% (1) 1.3% (2) 4.0%(1) 4.1% (1) 5.6% (1)

Level 1 Threshold -4.0% (4) -2.2% (4) 0.1% (2) 1.7% (1) 2.9% (1) 3.4% (1)

CSI -4.8% (4) -0.2% (2) -7.4% (4) -4.0% (4) -2.7% (4) -0.1% (2)

Level 2 inc. -5.1% (4) -0.4% (2) -8.3% (4) -4.9% (4) -3.1% (4) -0.5% (3) Eng/Wel or Maths 5A*-C -8.3%(4) -3.6% (4) -9.3% (4) -5.7% (4) -6.3% (4) -3.6% (4) (GCSE/GNVQ Only)

8.8 Key stage 4 (matched to prior-attainment at key stage 2)

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Indicator Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2 Wider points Score -36.0 (4) -12.0 (3) -0.1 (3) 21.8 (2) 17.1 (2) 36.7 (1)

Capped Points -19.6 (4) -5.2 (3) -13.8 (4) 0.1 (3) -3.1 (3) 8.0 (1) Score

Level 2 Threshold -5.4% (4) 1.1% (2) -4.6% (3) 1.0% (2) -1.3% (3) 3.0% (2)

Level 1 Threshold -6.0% (4) -3.5% (4) -3.1% (4) -0.8% (3) 0.1% (2) 1.4% (1)

CSI -7.9% (4) 0.0% (3) -12.3% (4) -4.3% (4) -7.7% (4) 0.2% (2)

Level 2 inc. -8.1% (4) -0.1% (2) -13.2% (4) -5.2% (4) -8.1% (4) 0.0% (3) Eng/Wel or Maths 5A*-C -12.4% -11.5% (4) -3.6% (4) -15.0% (4) -7.0% (4) -3.9% (4) (GCSE/GNVQ Only) (4)

Where the difference between estimated performance and actual performance is statistically significant, this has been highlighted in bold in the tables above.

Appendix 3 Comparative Positions of Attainment in All Key Indicators 2007/08 to 2012/13