DOCSLIB.ORG

Osservatorio Strategico 2019 N

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Osservatorio Strategico 2019 N CENTRO ALTI STUDI CENTRO MILITARE PER LA DIFESA DI STUDI STRATEGICI Osservatorio Strategico 2019 N. 6 Il Centro Militare di Studi Strategici (Ce.Mi.S.S.), costituito nel 1987 e situato presso Palazzo Salviati a Roma, è diretto da un Generale di Divisione (Direttore), o Ufficiale di grado equivalente, ed è strutturato su due Dipartimenti (Monitoraggio Strategico - Ricerche) ed un Ufficio Relazioni Esterne. Le attività sono regolate dal Decreto del Ministro della Difesa del 21 dicembre 2012. Il Ce.Mi.S.S. svolge attività di studio e ricerca a carattere strategico-politico-militare, per le esigenze del Ministero della Difesa, contribuendo allo sviluppo della cultura e della conoscenza, a favore della collettività nazionale. Le attività condotte dal Ce.Mi.S.S. sono dirette allo studio di fenomeni di natura politica, economica, sociale, culturale, militare e dell'effetto dell'introduzione di nuove tecnologie, ovvero dei fenomeni che determinano apprezzabili cambiamenti dello scenario di sicurezza. Il livello di analisi è prioritariamente quello strategico. Per lo svolgimento delle attività di studio e ricerca, il Ce.Mi.S.S. impegna: a) di personale militare e civile del Ministero della Difesa, in possesso di idonea esperienza e qualifica professionale, all'uopo assegnato al Centro, anche mediante distacchi temporanei, sulla base di quanto disposto annualmente dal Capo di Stato Maggiore dalla Difesa, d'intesa con il Segretario Generale della difesa/Direttore Nazionale degli Armamenti per l'impiego del personale civile; b) collaboratori non appartenenti all'amministrazione pubblica, (selezionati in conformità alle vigenti disposizioni fra gli esperti di comprovata specializzazione). Per lo sviluppo della cultura e della conoscenza di temi di interesse della Difesa, il Ce.Mi.S.S. instaura collaborazioni con le Università, gli istituti o Centri di Ricerca, italiani o esteri e rende pubblici gli studi di maggiore interesse. Il Ministro della Difesa, sentiti il Capo di Stato Maggiore dalla Difesa, d'intesa con il Segretario Generale della difesa/Direttore Nazionale degli Armamenti, per gli argomenti di rispettivo interesse, emana le direttive in merito alle attività di ricerca strategica, stabilendo le lenee guida per l'attività di analisi e di collaborazione con le istituzioni omologhe e definendo i temi di studio da assegnare al Ce.Mi.S.S.. I ricercatori sono lasciati completamente liberi di esprimere il proprio pensiero sugli argomenti trattati, il contenuto degli studi pubblicati riflette esclusivamente il pensiero dei singoli autori, e non quello del Ministero della Difesa né delle eventuali Istituzioni militari e/o civili alle quali i Ricercatori stessi appartengono. CENTRO ALTI STUDI CENTRO MILITARE PER LA DIFESA DI STUDI STRATEGICI Osservatorio Strategico 2019 N. 6 Osservatorio Strategico Anno XXI numero VI - 2019 NOTA DI SALVAGUARDIA Quanto contenuto in questo volume riflette esclusivamente il pensiero dei singoli autori, e non quello del Ministero della Difesa né delle eventuali Istituzioni militari e/o civili alle quali gli autori stessi appartengono. NOTE Le analisi sono sviluppate utilizzando informazioni disponibili su fonti aperte. L’Osservatorio Strategico è disponibile anche in formato elettronico (file .PDF) e nel formato E-Book (file .epub) al seguente link: http://www.difesa.it/SMD_/CASD/IM/CeMiSS/Pubblicazioni/OsservatorioStrategico/Pagine/default.aspx Osservatorio Strategico 2019 Questo volume è stato curato dal Centro Militare di Studi Strategici Direttore Col. A.A.r.n.n. Pil. (AM) Marco Francesco D’ASTA Vice Direttore Capo Dipartimento Monitoraggio Strategico Col. A.A.r.n.n. Pil. (AM) Marco Francesco D’ASTA Progetto grafico Massimo Bilotta - Roberto Bagnato Autori Claudia Astarita, Claudio Bertolotti, Claudio Catalano, Francesca Citossi, Marco Cochi, Fabio Indeo, Gianluca Pastori, Luca Puddu, Paolo Quercia, Francesco Davide Ragno, Alessio Stilo. Stampato dalla tipografia del Centro Alti Studi per la Difesa Centro Militare di Studi Strategici Dipartimento Monitoraggio Strategico Palazzo Salviati Piazza della Rovere, 83 - 00165 – Roma tel. 06 4691 3204 - fax 06 6879779 e-mail [email protected] Chiuso ad novembre 2019 - Stampato a dicembre 2019 ISBN 978-88-31203-36-4 Osservatorio Strategico Indice Euro/Atlantica (USA-NATO-Parteners) 8 L’apertura della procedura di impeachment contro Donald Trump e le sue possibili ricadute sul voto presidenziale del 2020 Gianluca Pastori Iniziative di difesa Europeee e sviluppo tecnologico 12 Il difficile avvio della commissione Von Der Leyen Claudio Catalano Balcani e Mar Nero 18 Il nuovo Kosovo di Albin Kurti e gli effetti per la stabilità regionale Paolo Quercia Mashreq, Gran Maghreb, Egitto ed Israele 22 Razzi su Israele: l’attacco dopo l’uccisione di un leader del movimento terrorista palestinese Jihad Islamico Claudio Bertolotti Sahel e Africa Subsahariana 27 Il ruolo fondamentale di Internet nello sviluppo dell’Africa sub-sahariana Marco Cochi Golfo Persico 33 I tre prìncipi del Golfo: l’alleanza difficile Riyadh-Abu Dhabi e la crisi del GCC Francesca Citossi Corno d’Africa e Africa Meridionale 38 La variabile Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) nel dibattito politico interno e di politica estera dell’Etiopia Luca Puddu Russia, Asia centrale e Caucaso 43 Il crescente ruolo della Russia in Medio Oriente Alessio Stilo Asia meridionale ed orientale 50 Le ambizioni della Cina su Taiwan: minacce ibride in supporto a dichiarazioni di intenti concrete Claudia Astarita America Latina 55 Le primavere latinoamericane Francesco Davide Ragno Pacifico 59 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: verso un nuovo modello di cooperazione economica nella regione Indo-Pacifico Fabio Indeo 5 Area Tematica La Russia sta cercando di estendere la sua influenza. Quali sono le strategie adottate nelle diverse aree e quali obiettivi Euro/Atlantica (USA-NATO-Parteners) 66 Gianluca Pastori Iniziative di difesa Europeee e sviluppo tecnologico 68 Claudio Catalano Balcani e Mar Nero 70 Paolo Quercia Mashreq, Gran Maghreb, Egitto ed Israele 72 Claudio Bertolotti Sahel e Africa Subsahariana 74 Marco Cochi Golfo Persico 77 Francesca Citossi Corno d’Africa e Africa Meridionale 79 Luca Puddu Russia, Asia centrale e Caucaso 83 Alessio Stilo Asia meridionale ed orientale 88 Claudia Astarita America latina 90 Francesco Davide Ragno Pacifico 92 Fabio Indeo Lista degli acronimi 95 6 Osservatorio Strategico Euro/Atlantica (USA-NATO-Partners) Gianluca Pastori L’apertura della procedura di impeachment contro Donald Trump e le sue possibili ricadute sul voto presidenziale del 2020 L’apertura della procedura di impeachment a carico di Donald Trump e l’avvio delle sedute pubbliche per l’audizione dei testimoni convocati nel corso dell’indagine rappresentano l’ultimo sviluppo di una vicenda iniziata con lo stesso arrivo del Presidente alla Casa Bianca. Nei mesi della campagna elettorale e in quelli precedenti l’insediamento, voci di contatti fra l’entourage del candidato Trump e figure legate a vari titolo a Mosca e al suo governo si erano susseguite con una certa insistenza, contribuendo, fra l’altro, a screditare la candidatura dell’ex generale Michael Flynn (già consulente per la campagna elettorale di Trump) alla posizione di Consigliere per la sicurezza nazionale, dalla quale lo stesso Flynn si sarebbe dimesso il 13 febbraio 2017, meno di un mese dopo la formalizzazione della sua nomina (20 gennaio). Le dimissioni di Flynn hanno aperto la strada a una serie d’indiscrezioni giornalistiche volte a evidenziare l’ampiezza e la profondità del ruolo svolto dalla Russia nel voto del 2016 e la vicinanza al Presidente delle figure coinvolte, primi fra tutti Jared Kushner, genero di Trump e suo senior advisor alla Casa Bianca, il figlio dello stesso Trump, Donald Jr, e Paul Manafort, Presidente del comitato elettorale di Trump, successivamente condannato in due diversi procedimenti avviati nel quadro delle attività della Commissione speciale d’inchiesta guidata dall’ex Direttore del FBI Robert Mueller. La presentazione del c.d. “Rapporto Mueller” (diffuso il 24 marzo nella sintesi di quattro pagine redatta dal Procuratore generale William Barr e in forma integrale, in due volumi, nel corso del mese seguente1) non ha portato alla fine della vicenda. Il documento rilevava, infatti, l’assenza di prove che attestassero in modo conclusivo il coinvolgimento del Presidente o di figure legate alla sua campagna elettorale in una cospirazione con Mosca per orientare gli esiti del voto del 2016, nonostante le «diverse offerte» (various offers) ricevute da «Russian-affiliated individuals to assist the Trump campaign». Una formula che si prestava a interpretazioni divergenti e che ha portato, fra l’altro, a un’audizione pubblica di Mueller davanti al Congresso (Commissione giustizia della Camera dei rappresentanti, 24 luglio) senza che, peraltro, ciò servisse a fare maggiore chiarezza. Questo stato di cose (che, nella sostanza, permetteva sia all’amministrazione, sia all’opposizione di rimanere del proprio avviso, appoggiandosi ai molti interrogativi lasciati aperti dal rapporto) era ulteriormente deteriorato dalla decisione del Procuratore generale di aprire una propria indagine amministrativa (affidata al Procuratore federale per lo Stato del Connecticut, John Durham), in seguito trasformatasi in indagine penale a tutti gli effetti, sul ruolo svolto dagli organi di intelligence nell’avvio delle indagini sulle presunte interferenze russe. Percepita da larghe fette del Partito democratico come una sorta di “contro-inchiesta”
Load more

Recommended publications
  • America First and the Populist Impact on US Foreign Policy
    Survival Global Politics and Strategy ISSN: 0039-6338 (Print) 1468-2699 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tsur20 America First and the Populist Impact on US Foreign Policy Georg Löfflmann To cite this article: Georg Löfflmann (2019) America First and the Populist Impact on US Foreign Policy, Survival, 61:6, 115-138, DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2019.1688573 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2019.1688573 Published online: 19 Nov 2019. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 515 View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=tsur20 America First and the Populist Impact on US Foreign Policy Georg Löfflmann The election of Donald Trump as president of the United States and the success of Brexit in the European Union referendum campaign in the United Kingdom are the most prominent examples of the populist disruption of the status quo in international politics. This has led to heightened interest in the phenomenon of populism, both among global media and in academia.1 In the past, most analysts viewed populism as a domestic phenomenon rel- evant to voter mobilisation, with a particular focus on its impact on liberal democratic systems, comparisons among populist movements and leaders, and its development in Europe and Latin America.2 Populism’s impact on foreign policy and national security has garnered relatively little attention, and there has been little crossover between
    [Show full text]
  • The Case for Fort Trump Couldn't Be Stronger | Salvatore Babones
    09/10/2018 The Case For Fort Trump Couldn’t Be Stronger | Salvatore Babones Unknown date Salvatore Babones The Case For Fort Trump Couldn’t Be Stronger Poland’s President Andrzej Duda met with President Donald Trump at the White House Tuesday to talk defense. Poland’s defense. But then, Poland’s defense is Europe’s defense, and European defense has been a core U.S. foreign-policy mission for more than a century. Poland is crucial to European defense because it is the keystone of a NATO arch that runs from Norway in the Arctic to Turkey in the Caucasus. NATO’s northern ank is secure. NATO’s southern ank is in disarray as Turkey’s commitment to NATO comes under doubt. But it is in the center that any future conict will be won or lost. Germany used to be the bulwark of NATO’s central front, but today Germany’s defense spending is among the lowest in Europe and its operational readiness is abysmal. Just as important, the German public does not support NATO’s mission or America’s role in it. By a 42 percent to 37 percent margin, Germans want U.S. troops out of their country. Even more alarming is the fact that only 40 percent of the German public supports the use of German troops to defend another European country from a Russian invasion. The corresponding gure for both the United States and Poland is 62 percent. That’s right: Americans are more willing to send troops to defend a European ally than Germans are.
    [Show full text]
  • Special Raport
    SPECIAL REPORT 02/11/2019 U.S. PERMANENT MILITARY BASE IN POLAND: FAVORABLE SOLUTION FOR THE NATO ALLIANCE Warsaw Institute U.S. PERMANENT MILITARY BASE IN POLAND: FAVORABLE SOLUTION FOR THE NATO ALLIANCE U.S. Permanent Military Base in Poland: Favorable Solution For the NATO Alliance Publisher: Warsaw Institute Wilcza St. 9 00-538 Warsaw Poland www.warsawinstitute.org [email protected] Authors: Grzegorz Kuczyński - Director of Eurasia Program, Warsaw Institute Krzysztof Kamiński – President, Warsaw Institute Glen E. Howard - President, Jamestown Foundation Laurynas Kasčiūnas - Member of the Parliament of the Republic of Lithuania Iulian Chifu – President, Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Center Editor: Agnieszka Nitek - Warsaw Institute Translations & proofreading: Aleksandra Iskra - Warsaw Institute ISBN 978-83-947602-2-9 © Warsaw Institute 2019 The opinions given and the positions held in this publication solely reflects the views of authors. 2 Special Report www.warsawinstitute.org U.S. PERMANENT MILITARY BASE IN POLAND: FAVORABLE SOLUTION FOR THE NATO ALLIANCE Dear Readers, On September 18th, 2018, during a joint press conference of the President of the United States and President of the Republic of Poland, the proposal to increase the involvement of U.S. Army in Central and Eastern Europe was announced. President Donald J. Trump said the U.S. is considering to deploy more U.S. troops and military equipment to Poland. His Polish counterpart, President Andrzej Duda, suggested building a permanent U.S. base in Poland. Poland has openly proposed a permanent U.S. presence since President George W. Bush was in office. All significant political forces in Poland have been supporting this idea for years.
    [Show full text]
  • 5 June 2019 Diego García-Sayán, United Nations Special Rapporteur of the Human Rights Council on the Independence of Judges A
    5 June 2019 Diego García-Sayán, United Nations Special Rapporteur of the Human Rights Council on the Independence of Judges and Lawyers Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights United Nations Office at Geneva 8-14 Avenue de la Paix 12-11 Geneva 10, Switzerland Via Email: [email protected] RE: Complaint Against the United States of America: Interference with Judicial Proceedings at the International Criminal Court “The United States will use any means necessary to protect our citizens and those of our allies from unjust prosecution by this illegitimate court.” - U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton1 “…subsequent changes within the relevant political landscape both in Afghanistan and in key States (both parties and non-parties to the Statute), coupled with the complexity and volatility of the political climate still surrounding the Afghan scenario, make it extremely difficult to gauge the prospects of securing meaningful cooperation from relevant authorities for the future.” - ICC Pre-Trial Chamber II, 12 April 2019 Decision2 Dear Special Rapporteur García-Sayán, This complaint and request for a comprehensive investigation is prompted by the well- founded belief that there has been, and likely continues to be, interference with the independence of judicial proceedings at the International Criminal Court (“ICC” or “Court”) by senior officials of the United States, up to and including President Donald Trump. Public statements by U.S. officials make clear that the target of this interference extends not only to personnel of the ICC, including members of the judiciary, but also to Member States of the ICC as well as inter-governmental organizations, such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (“NATO”), and threatens to interfere with the work of lawyers representing victims or otherwise engaging with the ICC.
    [Show full text]
  • European Army Or Fort Trump? the Case of Polish Participation in Headquarters Eurocorps in the Issue of Multinational Military Echelons in the 21St Century
    Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 2019-06 EUROPEAN ARMY OR FORT TRUMP? THE CASE OF POLISH PARTICIPATION IN HEADQUARTERS EUROCORPS IN THE ISSUE OF MULTINATIONAL MILITARY ECHELONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY Bohnsack, Heiko Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/62796 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS EUROPEAN ARMY OR FORT TRUMP? THE CASE OF POLISH PARTICIPATION IN HEADQUARTERS EUROCORPS IN THE ISSUE OF MULTINATIONAL MILITARY ECHELONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY by Heiko Bohnsack June 2019 Thesis Advisor: Donald Abenheim Second Reader: Uwe Hartmann Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Form Approved OMB REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED (Leave blank) June 2019 Master's thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS EUROPEAN ARMY OR FORT TRUMP? THE CASE OF POLISH PARTICIPATION IN HEADQUARTERS EUROCORPS IN THE ISSUE OF MULTINATIONAL MILITARY ECHELONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY 6.
    [Show full text]
  • I V the Politics of Foreign Military Bases by J. Wellington Brown
    The Politics of Foreign Military Bases by J. Wellington Brown Department of Political Science Duke University Date:_______________________ Approved: ___________________________ Kyle Beardsley, Co-Advisor ___________________________ Peter Feaver, Co-Advisor ___________________________ Joseph Grieco ___________________________ Daniel Bolger Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Political Science in the Graduate School of Duke University 2020 i v ABSTRACT The Politics of Foreign Military Bases by J. Wellington Brown Department of Political Science Duke University Date:_______________________ Approved: ___________________________ Kyle Beardsley, Co-Advisor ___________________________ Peter Feaver, Co-Advisor ___________________________ Joseph Grieco ___________________________ Daniel Bolger An abstract of a dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Political Science in the Graduate School of Duke University 2020 i v Copyright by J. Wellington Brown 2020 Abstract Foreign military bases are anomalies in a world of sovereign states. Why do major powers station their finite military forces to protect other countries and how does the distribution of these bases relate to a country’s grand strategy? Why do host-nations give up their sovereignty and allow foreign forces, capable of existential violence, to deploy within their borders? This dissertation takes a mixed method approach to each of these questions. For the first, I combine descriptive case studies relating the basing postures of five major powers and to their respective grand strategies with a quantitative analysis of the correlates of the US military basing network. To answer the second, I test the role of host-nation security conditions on US military access and then conduct an in-depth process tracing of US-Philippine basing relations.
    [Show full text]
  • A Minefield of Opportunity
    REPORT — SPRING 2020 A minefield of opportunity Transatlantic defence in the Trump era The authors in this discussion paper contribute in their personal capacities, and their views do not necessarily reflect those of the organisations they represent, nor of Friends of Europe and its board of trustees, members or partners. Reproduction on whole or in part is permitted, provided that full credit is given to Friends of Europe, and that any such reproduction, whether in whole or in part, is not sold unless incorporated in other works. The European Commission support for the production of this publication does not constitute an endorsement of the contents which reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. Co-funded by the Europe for Citizens Programme of the European Union Publisher: Geert Cami Director: Nathalie Furrer, Dharmendra Kanani Programme Manager: Raphaël Danglade Programme Assistant: Clara Casert Editor: Robert Arenella, Arnaud Bodet, Eleanor Doorley, Angela Pauly Design: Elza Lőw, Lucien Leyh © Friends of Europe - July 2019 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visits the United States, April 2017 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visits the United States, April 2017 This report is part of Friends of Europe’s Peace, Security and Defence programme. Written by Paul Taylor, it brings together the views of scholars, policymakers and senior defence and security stakeholders. Unless otherwise indicated, this report reflects the writer’s understanding of the views expressed by the interviewees and participants of survey. The author and the participants contributed in their personal capacities, and their views do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions they represent, or of Friends of Europe and its board of trustees, members or partners.
    [Show full text]
  • Reforming Nato to Save the Alliance
    EUROPE, STRATEGY, SECURITY PROGRAMME REFORMING NATO TO SAVE THE ALLIANCE BY FRÉDÉRIC MAURO LAWYER AT THE PARIS AND BRUSSELS BARS, ASSOCIATE RESEARCHER AT IRIS JULY 2019 ANALYSIS #7 ANALYSIS #7 –EUROPE, STRATEGY, SECURITY PROGRAMME / July 2019 ATO is seventy. It has survived the demise of the Soviet empire, worked to bring peace to the former Yugoslavia, helped to reunite the countries of Eastern Europe with the rest of the continent and participated in American N expeditions in Afghanistan. “Mission accomplished’’ 1, one might be tempted to say, particularly as it continues to serve a useful purpose by reassuring States directly facing Russian aggression. However, never have there been more questions as to its permanence. It took just one word – “obsolete” – for both sides of the Atlantic to start asking: “could NATO die?” Really? It is a paradox, because although the transatlantic political links have seriously deteriorated, never has NATO so blossomed as a military organisation. As Bruno Tertrais so rightly put it, “NATO is doing fine, but the Atlantic Alliance is in trouble”2. The fact is that criticism is mounting on both sides of the Atlantic. The marriage is on the rocks, but the spouses cannot make up their minds to leave. It would be better for them to reorganise their relationship than start throwing crockery at each other. But how? NATO IS FINE… It has survived everything, particularly the disappearance of its enemy, the USSR. It has been able to adapt and continue in its existence. It is no longer an organisation. It is an institution. Not only has it survived, it has grown from twelve members to twenty-nine and new candidates are knocking on the door.
    [Show full text]
  • Balancing Act: the Limits of Pragmatism in the Franco-American Relationship and the Way Forward
    THE NEW GEOPOLITICS OCTOBER 2018 EUROPE BALANCING ACT: THE LIMITS OF PRAGMATISM IN THE FRANCO-AMERICAN RELATIONSHIP AND THE WAY FORWARD CÉLIA BELIN BROOKINGS – ROBERT BOSCH FOUNDATION TRANSATLANTIC INITIATIVE BALANCING ACT: THE LIMITS OF PRAGMATISM IN THE FRANCO-AMERICAN RELATIONSHIP AND THE WAY FORWARD1 CÉLIA BELIN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY At a time when no one expected it, the relationship between President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron got off to a strong start. Not only did the two leaders click on a personal basis, but contrary to many of its European neighbors, France has mostly approached the tempestuous American president with pragmatism and benevolence. Trump’s interest-driven “America First” foreign policy, which signaled a repositioning of the United States away from democracy promotion and neoconservative interventionism, suited France’s realist approach to the world order. It came at a particularly favorable time for French-American bilateral relations. Over the past decade, France and the United States have enjoyed an excellent defense and security relationship, forged in their common counterterrorism efforts in the Levant and Africa. Yet, the quality of the French-American bilateral relationship cannot conceal the fact that shared interests and personal connections have not helped to tame the effects of an isolationist and protectionist American foreign policy, nor has it translated into any advancement of multilateral causes or prevented inopportune American meddling in European foreign and internal policies. At this juncture, France is trying to balance the advantages of a close relationship with an indispensable ally in the fight against terrorism with the reality of a reluctant and disruptive partner that pursues its narrow interests, ignorant to the history of allies and even to the long-term systemic effects on the post-World War II world order.
    [Show full text]
  • Poland's Turbulent and Consequential Presidential Election
    Transatlantic Take 26 June 2020 TTake 360: Poland’s Turbulent and Consequential Presidential Election GMF Experts Ahead of the first round of presidential election in Poland on Sunday, the race is tightening with the incum- bent President Andrzej Duda projected to win 43 percent of the vote and the candidate of the opposition Civic Platform, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, just under 30 percent. The third contender in the race is the independent Szymon Holownia, who has been gaining in the polls and can count on around 12 percent. The turnout is projected to be high at over 63 percent. Unless all the polls are wrong, a second round will have to take place on July 12, and it will be the decisive fight between the candidates of the ruling PiS party, and the Civic Platform, the main opposition party. Below, GMF experts in Warsaw, Berlin, Bucharest, and Wash- ington give their perspective on the importance of Poland’s choice. Continuity or Cohabitation? It has been a long and tumultuous campaign for Poland’s presidential election. The vote was originally to take place on May 10, but it was postponed to June 28 because of the coronavirus pandemic and after much of political drama. The last few days of the campaign were marked by the visit of President Andrzej Duda to Washington. This was an unprecedented move—no candidate has traveled internationally at such a late stage of a campaign, and no U.S. president in the past would have thought that it would be good idea to invite the head of state of an allied democracy four days before an election.
    [Show full text]
  • Foreign Policy for Sale?
    Foreign Policy For Sale? Analysis of China’s Relations with Poland and Hungary Master’s Thesis Faustas Domarkas 515478 International Public Management & Public Policy Erasmus University Rotterdam First Reader: Dr. S. R. Grand Second Reader: Dr. M. Onderco 29 July 2019 Word Count: 24.824 1 Summary Today, decisions taken in Beijing have a direct impact on foreign policy-makers from Tokyo and Manilla to Warsaw and Budapest. The emergence of the Belt and Road initiative shows that China has global ambitions that expand beyond its geographical periphery. Namely, the formation of the 17+1 summit, a forum for policy coordination and investment facilitation between China and Eastern and Central European countries, has triggered a debate whether China is carving out a piece of Europe. However, the extent of China’s involvement in Hungary and Poland has not been extensively analysed. Therefore, this thesis aims to establish a comprehensive overview of China’s hard and soft power in the two EU member states and interpret foreign policy making through the lenses of realism and liberalism. I based this qualitative research on a wide range of indicators, from economic relations to cultural influence, as well as gathered data on Chinese FDI and infrastructure projects. I also compiled data on all major Chinese projects and China-related foreign policy decisions. Contrary to the prevailing discourse, the research reveals contradictory results – the more Chinese investments a country receives, the less likely it is to take pro-China foreign policy positions. I conclude that although Chinese capital can reinforce already existent policy positions and domestic interests, China so far cannot combine its hard and soft power to achieve preferred outcomes, but it can entrench existing preferences.
    [Show full text]
  • 9 U.S. Foreign Policy in Transition
    U.S. Foreign Policy 9 in Transition Is the United States relinquishing its global supremacy?distribute By Bill Wanlund or AP Photo/Jim Mone At an annual security conference of the United States’ European Michael Petefish stands inside a soybean bin at his allies in February, a gathering that normally celebrates trans-Atlantic farm near Claremont, Minn., in July 2018. When unity, German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivered a harsh assess- President Trump imposed $250 billion in tariffs on mentpost, of U.S. foreign policy. Chinese exports, China responded with its own Merkel criticized the Trump administration’s unilateral tariffs. The trade war, which has cooled, has hurt approach to international affairs, specifically questioning U.S. some U.S. farmers. China is the largest buyer of American soybeans. plans to pull troops out of Syria and Afghanistan and a decision to abandon the 31-year-old intermediate-range nuclear weapons treaty with Russia. Both actions, she said, would endanger Europe while strengthening Moscow’s position. copy, The liberal world order—the U.S.-led system of institutions and alliances created after World War II and credited with establishing postwar global peace and prosperity—“has collapsed into many tiny parts,” Merkel said.1 not Attendees gave the German leader a standing ovation, in contrast to the cool reception that met Vice President Mike Pence hours later when he extended greetings from Trump. In that speech, Pence defended the administration’s foreign policy, saying that under Do President Trump, “America is leading the free world once again.” From CQ Researcher, Pence also urged Europeans to “do more” in their own defense and March 29, 2019 “stop undermining” U.S.
    [Show full text]