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Political Leadership in Afghanistan Identifying and Assessing Determining Factors

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Dissertation Political Leadership in Afghanistan Identifying and Assessing Determining Factors Ahmad Idrees Rahmani This document was submitted as a dissertation in January 2016 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Terrence Kelly (Chair), Gery Ryan, and Thomas Szayna. PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL For more information on this publication, visit http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD371.html Perhaps no question is as central to political discourse as that of political leadership. For if there is an “irreducible fact” of politics, it is that in many political society some shall be the rulers and some the ruled (Dahl and Neubauer, 1968). Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2016 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org PREFACE This dissertation is written in partial fulfillment of requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Policy Research and Analysis by Pardee RAND Graduate School. The committee that approved this dissertation on December 14th 2015 consisted of Terrence Kelly (Chairman), Gery Ryan, Thomas Szayna, and Francis Fukuyama (external advisor). The study is designed to explore the socio-cultural norms, expectations, and values of the Afghan people for good political leadership, and assess variations across different ethnic groups. The effort aims to examine if the socio-cultural norms and values of the Afghan society are to be credited or blamed for the patterns of political leadership that have emerged in the past five decades. The analysis and policy recommendation provided in this document will be of interest to individuals concerned with political leadership and factors that determine good leadership in the context of Afghanistan. Some of the issues discussed in this study could be defined as time sensitive, meaning more relevant to the time of the study rather than a distance time in the future. But most conclusions and policy recommendations of the study will likely remain relevant for several decades to come. The views expressed in this study are those of the author, they should not be interpreted as representing the view of the institutions and individuals who provided the technical and financial support, and/or any individual cited herein. 3 ABSTRACT Afghanistan is a country where national institutions are weak, if they exist at all. Any socio- political change is initiated and enforced through strong political initiatives exhibited by unique individuals with charismatic leadership capacity. Even after the end of Afghanistan’s isolation in 2002, and excessive foreign investment in building institutions, many experts believe that the process has not lived up to expectations, partly because Afghans tend to mobilize around individuals and do not treat institutions seriously. This study takes those beliefs as a starting point and explores the factors that lead to a political leader in Afghanistan being defined as “good,” “strong,” or “popular”—as well as what needs to be done to improve political leadership for future generations, given cultural consensus on characteristics of good political leadership. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ....................................................................................................................................... 3 ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................... 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................ 5 TABLE OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................... 9 TABLE OF TABLES ................................................................................................................... 12 SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 14 AKNOWLEDGEMENTS............................................................................................................. 24 ABBREVIATION......................................................................................................................... 25 CH – 1: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 27 Impact on Policy ..................................................................................................................................... 29 Historical Background ........................................................................................................................ 30 Impact on research .................................................................................................................................. 36 The Current Concept of Political Leadership ..................................................................................... 39 Expected Contribution from This Research ........................................................................................... 44 CH – 2: METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................................... 47 5 Theoretical Framework and Assumptions .............................................................................................. 47 Analysis and Data Collection Strategy ................................................................................................... 50 Level-1 Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 51 Level-2 Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 51 Level-1 Data Collection ..................................................................................................................... 54 Level-2 Data Collection ..................................................................................................................... 57 How to read the analysis .................................................................................................................... 59 Factor Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 65 CH – 3: DEMOGRAPHICS ......................................................................................................... 69 Stratification Strategy ............................................................................................................................. 71 Sampling Strategy .................................................................................................................................. 73 CH – 4: DEFINITION OF LEADERSHIP ................................................................................... 82 CH – 5: CHARACTERISTICS OF LEADERS ........................................................................... 93 Factor 1: Measure of Goodness .............................................................................................................. 99 Factor 2: Islamic Factor ........................................................................................................................ 101 Factor 3: Pashtun Factor ....................................................................................................................... 103 Factor 4: Trust & Dependability ........................................................................................................... 105 Factor 5: Non-Pashtun Standard ........................................................................................................... 106 6 Important Findings from the First Stage ............................................................................................... 109 Judging Characteristics of Known Political Leaders ............................................................................ 113 CH – 6: EXPECTATIONS FROM LEADERS .......................................................................... 118 Factor 1: Measure of Goodness ............................................................................................................ 124 Factor 2: Islamic Factor
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