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Downloaded on 22Th Sept, 2013 UC Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title Strategic planning for biodiversity and ecosystem services: Assessing targets and actions in seabird and water conservation Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5gk057z6 Author Ruiz, Diana Madrigal Publication Date 2020 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SANTA CRUZ STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES: ASSESSING TARGETS AND ACTIONS IN SEABIRD AND WATER CONSERVATION A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY by Diana Madrigal Ruiz December 2020 The Dissertation of Diana Madrigal Ruiz is approved: __________________________________ Professor Donald A. Croll, chair __________________________________ Professor Bernie R. Tershy __________________________________ Professor M. Tim Tinker __________________________________ Professor James A. Estes ___________________________ Quentin Williams Acting Vice Provost and Dean of Graduate Studies Table of Contents List of Tables ............................................................................................................... iv List of Figures ............................................................................................................... v Abstract ........................................................................................................................ vi Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... viii CHAPTER 1 - Introdiction .......................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2 - Turning off the tap: Common domestic water conservation actions insufficient to alleviate drought in the United States of America …………………..5 Abstract ..................................................................................................................... 5 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 5 Materials and methods .............................................................................................. 7 Results ..................................................................................................................... 13 Discussion ............................................................................................................... 21 CHAPTER 3 - Improving threatened species assessments by scaling up population viability analysis for threatened seabirds …………………………………….23 Abstract ................................................................................................................... 23 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 24 Methods................................................................................................................... 29 Results ..................................................................................................................... 32 Discussion ............................................................................................................... 43 Supplemental Materials .......................................................................................... 48 CHAPTER 4 - Using meta-population models to guide conservation action ………56 Abstract ................................................................................................................... 56 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 57 Methods................................................................................................................... 60 Results ..................................................................................................................... 67 Discussion ............................................................................................................... 79 Supplemental Materials .......................................................................................... 84 CHAPTER 5 - Conclusion ...................................................................................... 136 Bibliography ............................................................................................................. 140 iii List of Tables Table 2.1. Standardized potential monthly water savings per household from commonly promoted domestic water conservation actions ........................................ 12 Table 3.1, Summary of IUCN Red List criteria for threatened categorizations and present study criteria E adaptation (Table 2.1 IUCN, 2019). ..................................... 27 Table 3.2. Number and percent of species within current Red List threat statuses and seabird mPVA projected status (based on mean projected quasi-extinction risk and criterion E thresholds). ............................................................................................... 39 Table 3.A.1. BirdLife International 2020 threatened seabird species list and rationale for exclusion of 15 species from seabird mPVA database. ........................................ 48 Table 3.A.2 . Confusion matrix for ordinal logistic regression test data .................... 55 Table 4.1. Species threat status, mean projected quasi-extinction risk, final mean abundance, and associated intervention scenario. ....................................................... 70 Table 4.2. Mean credible decrease in projected quasi-extinction risk and proportional increase in mean final abundances under all scenarios relative to baseline. .............. 77 Table 4.A.1 Threatened Species List and Overlap between New Zealand Department of Conservation Action Plan and seabird mPVA. ...................................................... 84 Table 4.A.2 Confirmed and Probable Breeding Site List by Species and Country ... 89 Table 4.A.3. Scenario treatment by species and priority ........................................... 93 Table 4.A.4. Database and literature review of attempted seabird colony movements ..................................................................................................................................... 99 Table 4.A.5. Instances of viability measures and hierarchical intervention scenario priority congruence. .................................................................................................. 127 Table 4.A.6. Log transformed increase in abundance under All scenarios relative to Baseline scenario ...................................................................................................... 131 Table 4.A.7. Prescribed intervention actions by species and action and associated viability gains ............................................................................................................ 132 iv List of Figures Figure 2.1. Water stress status of U.S. counties in 2010........................................... 15 Figure 2.2 Counties with potential water stress relief from promoted domestic actions. ........................................................................................................................ 17 Figure 2.3. 2010 County level dominant water withdrawal sectors........................... 20 Figure 3.1. Mean projected quasi-extinction risk for 99 threatened seabird species under baseline conditions. ........................................................................................... 35 Figure 3.2. Mean of individual species mean projected quasi-extinction risk categorized by current Red List status . ....................................................................... 37 Figure 3.3a +b. Current vs. our modeled threatened seabird Red List status by family ..................................................................................................................................... 41 Figure 3.A.1. Predicted probability of Red List status designation over scale quasi- extinction risk.............................................................................................................. 55 Figure 4.1. Baseline mean projected quasi-extinction risks and IUCN Red List status for 27 threatened New Zealand seabird species. ......................................................... 68 Figure 4.2. Decrease in mean projected quasi-extinction risk by intervention scenario priority......................................................................................................................... 76 v ABSTRACT Strategic planning for biodiversity and ecosystem services: Assessing targets and actions in seabird and water conservation by Diana Madrigal Ruiz Biodiversity and ecosystem function conservation face unprecedented challenges. Underfunding, incomplete policies, and backlogged assessments hinder conservation planning (Myers et al., 2000; James et al., 1999). In this dissertation, I seek to develop data-driven methods to inform strategic conservation of water and seabirds. Fresh water shortages threaten ecosystem function and human health (Georgakakos et al., 2014; Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2015). In Chapter 2 , I addressed effective water conservation by consumers across the contiguous United States. I determined county-level water stress by relating annual water withdrawal to availability. I adjusted water stress by the potential
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