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Proliferated Commercial Satellite Constellations Implications for National Security Soyuz-2.1b rocket lifts off from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, together with 34 OneWeb communication satellites (Courtesy Roscosmos) Proliferated Commercial Satellite Constellations Implications for National Security By Matthew A. Hallex and Travis S. Cottom he falling costs of space launch Commercial space actors—from tiny of these endeavors will result in new and the increasing capabilities of startups to companies backed by bil- space-based services, including global T small satellites have enabled the lions of dollars of private investment— broadband Internet coverage broadcast emergence of radically new space archi- are pursuing these new architectures from orbit and high-revisit overhead tectures—proliferated constellations to disrupt traditional business models imagery of much of the Earth’s surface. made up of dozens, hundreds, or even for commercial Earth observation and The effects of proliferated con- thousands of satellites in low orbits. satellite communications. The success stellations will not be confined to the commercial sector. The exponential in- crease in the number of satellites on orbit Matthew A. Hallex is a Research Staff Member at the Institute for Defense Analyses. Travis S. Cottom is will shape the future military operating a Research Associate at the Institute for Defense Analyses. environment in space. The increase in 20 Forum / Proliferated Commercial Satellite Constellations JFQ 97, 2nd Quarter 2020 the availability of satellite imagery and Table 1. Planned Proliferated Communications Constellations communications bandwidth on the open Satellite Operator Proposed Satellites Satellite Design Life (Years) market will also affect the operating environment in the ground, maritime, OneWeb > 2,000 7–10 and air domains, offering new capabilities SpaceX Starlink ~ 12,000 5–7 that can address hard problems facing Boeing > 3,000 10–15 the U.S. military, such as tracking mobile Telesat 292–512 10 targets, operating in the Arctic, or pro- Kepler Communications 140 10 viding resilient space support in the face LEOSat 84 10 of growing counterspace threats. These trends will also create new challenges as Sources: Tereza Pultarova and Caleb Henry, “OneWeb Weighing 2,000 More Satellites,” SpaceNews adversaries ranging from Great Power (February 24, 2017); Jon Brodkin, “FCC Tells SpaceX It Can Deploy Up to 11,943 Broadband Satellites,” Ars Technica (November 15, 2018); Grant R. Cates, Daniel X. Houston, Douglas G. Conley, and Karen competitors to hostile nonstate actors L. Jones, “Launch Uncertainty: Implications for Large Constellations,” The Aerospace Corporation, gain cheap access to space capabilities and November 2018, 2; Caleb Henry, “Telesat Says Ideal LEO Constellation Is 292 Satellites, but Could Be the emergence of space-based Internet 512,” SpaceNews (September 11, 2018). reshapes the cyber battlespace. This article discusses some of the proposed commercial proliferated con- gated Teledesic constellation and the competitive with terrestrial broadband stellations being developed in the United struggles of Iridium in the 1990s.2 communications. This will not only States and abroad and explores the poten- Growing global demand for infor- allow satellite communications to tial effects of proliferated constellations on mation services, the greater availability compete for long-distance backhaul the space, terrestrial, and cyber domains. of capital compared to previous eras of and mobile users but also address It identifies the multidomain challenges commercial satellite growth, the increas- underserved populations. Much of the and opportunities these trends create for ing affordability of access to space launch, developing world lacks access to ter- the warfighter and proposes steps that the and greater economies of scale in produc- restrial broadband infrastructure, and Department of Defense (DOD) and the ing small satellites, however, may make 57 percent of the global population broader national security community can proliferated constellations more viable does not have access to the Internet.3 take to prepare. commercial endeavors. The availability of Mega-constellations could allow the space-based broadband communications, developing world to skip laying costly Emerging Commercial for instance, will likely drive the growth fiber-optic cable in the same way the Proliferated Satellite of Internet-of-Things applications leading proliferation of cellular phone technol- Constellations to further demand for communications ogy provided communications without Commercial proliferated constellations services. Even if only a handful of prolif- the need to build phone lines in the will change how satellite communica- erated constellation efforts succeed, it will developing world. LEO-proliferated tions and Earth observation services are produce both a paradigm shift in how constellations will also be able to provided. Not all the projects detailed space services are provided and a substan- provide communications to high-lat- below will enter service. The total tial growth in the number of satellites on itude populations in Alaska, northern market for high bandwidth communi- orbit. Canada, Scandinavia, and Russia, which cations is estimated to reach 3 terabits are poorly served by terrestrial com- of data by 2024. If all the projected Communications munications infrastructure and outside proliferated communications constel- Satellites in geosynchronous orbit the coverage of GEO communications lations and other projected satellite (GEO) have traditionally provided satel- satellites.4 communications services become acces- lite communications where satellites can OneWeb and SpaceX are pursuing sible, 20 to 30 terabits will be available broadcast to large areas of the Earth. the most ambitious proposals for LEO by that year. The small satellite imagery These satellites have provided low data communications proliferated constella- market is expected to grow from its very rates and relatively high latency commu- tions (see table 1). OneWeb has raised small base, but government customers nications, good enough for niche appli- more than $1.7 billion in investments still dominate the demand for satellite cations but not competitive with fiber to build a first-generation constellation imagery.1 In addition to potential limits optics and other terrestrial alternatives of 648 satellites, expected to enter on demand, some industry experts for broadband communications. Prolif- commercial service by 2020, and plans have raised concerns about shortages erated communications constellations, to expand the constellation with 2,000 in investment capital necessary to com- often referred to as mega-constellations satellites in the future.5 Plans for SpaceX’s plete various competing efforts, and because of their size, are in low-Earth Starlink proliferated constellation are other critics have compared the current orbit (LEO) and aim to provide high even more ambitious. The first genera- era to the failures of the large, disaggre- bandwidth, low latency communications tion of Starlink is planned to consist of JFQ 97, 2nd Quarter 2020 Hallex and Cottom 21 national security and other government Table 2. Planned Proliferated Earth Observation Constellations purposes.11 Satellite Operator Proposed Satellites Resolution The U.S. Government has been the Planet ~ 150 0.72m–5m largest and most stable customer for Spaceflight Industries 60 1m commercial satellite imagery, including Satellogic 300 1m resources from new imagery prolif- Hera Systems 48 .5m erated constellations. For instance, a significant share of Planet’s growth has UrtheCast 16 0.75m–22m been through multiple contracts with Capella Space 30 1-30m SAR the National Geospatial-Intelligence Canon > 100 1m Agency.12 Commercial Earth observa- DigitalGlobe 6 0.3m tion companies, however, are seeking to diversify their customer base and Sources: “Planet Imagery and Archive,” Planet.com; Jeff Foust, “Spaceflight Raises $150 Million for BlackSky Constellation,” Space News, March 13, 2018; Caleb Henry, “Satellogic on Its Way to Launching reach new markets—to rely less on 300 Satellite Constellation for Earth Observation,” Satellite Today, March 17, 2016; Bhavya Lal et U.S. Government spending and, con- al., Global Trends in Small Satellites (Washington, DC: IDA Science and Technology Institute, July sequently, to potentially reduce its sway 2017); “Sensor Technologies,” UrtheCast.com; Nobutada Sako, “Utilizing Commercial DSLR for High Resolution Earth Observation Satellite,” paper presented at the AIAA/USU Conference on Small over commercial actors. With lower Satellites, Logan, UT, August 2018, 1–3; “CE-SAT 1,” Space Flight 101; Stephen Clark, “DigitalGlobe prices and increasingly on-demand im- Books Two Launches with SpaceX for Earth-Imaging Fleet,” Spaceflight Now, March 28, 2018. agery services, proliferated constellation companies are trying to focus on new, nontraditional satellite imagery markets: more than 4,000 satellites, and SpaceX The most mature of the disaggregated industrial monitoring, agriculture, util- has secured U.S. Government approval Earth observation constellations are those ities, marine transportation analytics, for a final constellation of almost 12,000 operated by Planet and Spire Global. By insurance, resource management, busi- satellites.6 Other proliferated constellation the end of 2017, Planet operated a con- ness intelligence, and other data-driven, proposals have come from established stellation of 140 Dove imagery CubeSats, decisionmaking practices.13
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