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1. Araranguá River Basin Overview 5. Future VACEA Brazilian Team - 2015 ² Dr. Michel Muza1 ² Dr. Marina Hirota2 ² Dr. Nathan S. Debortoli2 1Federal Institute of Santa Catarina 2Federal University of Santa Catarina Landslides Hail 1. ARARANGUÁ RIVER BASIN OVERVIEW 2. WEATHER EXTREMES IN THE REGION 5. FUTURE VULNERABILITY - Flashfloods example The Araranguá River Basin is located in the southern part of Santa Catarina state in Brazil. The basin has 300,000 sq/km and 430,000 inhabitants. In the northern part there has been According to VACEA framework Debortoli et al. (2015) developed a intense pollution of rivers, streams and soils due to Charcoal extraction, and in the south, due to Location Ø Main weather phenomena and disasters vulnerability index towards flashfloods and landslides for Brazil rice plantations. Almost 2/3 of the basin rivers are polluted. Even though there is no water in Santa Catarina: and the Araranguá river basin. The study used three set of 2 scarcity in the area, the quality has been deteriorating due to intense anthropogenic activities. 1 Black Frost indicators: climatic, environmental/physical and 1. West of Santa Catarina Floods socioeconomic. The indicators were calculated using a map In the southern basin (where agriculture is the main activity), rice plantation landscapes - Tornados, Gales Winds, Floods, Drought, algebra methodology to identify present vulnerability and future predominate (60,000 sq/km) along the coastal regions and floodplains (once covered by dense Hail, Landslides and Frosts. changes. The climatic input variables in the index considered two Atlantic Forests). Close to the mountain regions to the west, corn and Tabaco are more Global Circulation Climate Models: HadGEM and MIROC5, common, along with other important agriculture practices related to fruit production, cattle and 2. Itajaí Valley downscaled by the use of the Eta 20x20km regional model, for the milk industry. About 40% of the basin is occupied with agriculture. The northern part of the - Floods, Landslides, Frosts and Hail. baseline projection and the RCPs scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 from basin is very industrialized producing manufacturing products such as coal and ceramics. The IPCC/AR5. Drought most important cities in the basin are: Criciúma, Içara and Araranguá. 3. Araranguá River Basin - Tornados, Gale Winds, Flood (Gradual and The results indicate that present vulnerability (baseline 1961- 3 Flashfloods), Drought, Hail, Frosts, Tidal 1990) is high for flashfloods in the Araranguá river Basin in both 2. PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS Hurricane Catarina Storms, Hurricane (once time event – models (top maps). According to the MIROC model (bottom map), Hurricane Catarina). Criciúma Municipality Tornado future changes shown a decrease in vulnerability in scenario 8.5 for 2071-2100 period, specially in the northwest parts of the basin. The HadGEM projection (bottom map) indicates an increase in Vulnerability especially in the southwest regions for the same In this area of Brazil natural disasters are very common and farmers have to cope to extreme weather conditions frequently. However, during the last period. These differences in model outcomes are related to the decades, floods, gale winds and tornadoes have produced losses of millions of dollars especially with Hurricane Catarina in March 2004. Other important Vulnerability characteristic of this basin is that upstream floods take about 18 hours to the reach coastal cities, therefore, even with no rain in the coastal areas cities climatic indices that are represented by climate change over time can get flooded due to convective rain in the mountain façades. and different model parameterization inputs. The susceptibility and Rice Field Basin Landscape adaptation capacity in this study were considered static, and not u Adaptation measures to extreme weather conditions are somewhat scarce in this region and urgently need to be assessed. modeled for the future, since the objective was to capture the regions actual vulnerability to climate change according to Climate Extreme Socioeconomic Environmental present socioeconomic and environmental reality, Indices Institutional Physical Ø Environmental Fact Sheet 3. SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEXT AND GOVERNANCE Exposure Adaptation Capacity Susceptibility Main Issues During the study 17 municipalities were assessed in the basin to determine 6. RECOMMENDATIONS (BUILDING ADAPTATION CAPACITY) • River pollution; local and regional socioeconomic and governance characteristics. The • Riparian deforestation; socioeconomic assessment indicated that among the basin municipalities During the VACEA project undergraduate students visited the region and the municipalities and interviewed farmers and local • Slope deforestation; scores fluctuate demonstrating trade offs among the region. For instance stakeholders to understand local and regional need to build adaptation capacity at the municipalities. The students developed two • Salt water intrusion; the larger and most developed municipalities although with good education, life main studies, one developed a local municipality law towards climate change to be included in the municipality decrees and planning, • Poor land use practices; expectancy and high salaries, have deficient health structure, a higher GINI the other the assessment of local initiatives to create payment for environmental services to build resiliency in watershed • Soil salinization due to irrigation; index, poor environmental conditions and lack of urban planning; medium size integrative management. The boxes below include recommendations in different dimensions to build local adaptation capacity: • Soil contamination due to fertilizers municipalities are less unequal among indicators and seem to have a more Source: ABMDATA, 2015. Source: ABMDATA, 2015. and chemicals; coherent development within sustainable development goals. Smaller Institutional Socioeconomic Environmental Climatic Exposure • Unsustainable coal production; municipalities although with good environmental indicators lack much ü Continuity in local policy ü Increase access to health care, ü Enforce the forest code law; ü Promote structural and non- • Lack of environmental law enforcement; infrastructure while less industrialized and agricultural activities predominate. initiatives within political and sanitation, education and promote ü Increase environmental structural disasters prevention • Lack of a local climate governance; UNDP indicators for 17 municipalities power shifts; emancipation opportunities for the responsibility and awareness; ate community level; • Lack of adaptation techniques to Due to the lack of adaptation capacity of farmers to cope to climate ü Integrative management of poor; ü Incentive organic or agroforestry ü Improve alert and monitoring environmental, socioeconomic ü Increase technical assistance for practices to local farmers; system towards severe winds cope with extreme weather extremes in these regions, federal and state government provide local and urban and rural planning; farmers with new technologies; ü Generate initiatives for episodes; agriculture subsides for loss of crops due to harsh weather conditions, ü Law enforcement and ü Incentive the private sector to integrative watershed ü Develop or enforce land use Recent Positive Changes and funding for reconstruction after natural disasters. However, policies surveillance; invest in industrialization of raw management and payment for zoning to avoid construction in ü Initiatives towards water quality with basin towards prevention of disasters and crop loss due to weather extremes are ü Increase civil defense materials promoting jobs environmental services; areas prone to landslides and integrative management not included in local planning yet. Sustainable agriculture practices seem preventive actions towards opportunities to avoid rural ü Avoid deforestation; flooding; ü Forest code law enforcement; to be advancing with the introduction of organic rice production along with climate extremes and climate exodus; ü Integrative work between civil ü Avoid the disasters industry ü Institutional capacitation towards a climate integrative watershed management. Also, local cooperatives of farmers change; ü Equilibrate socioeconomic trade- defense, environment agencies towards responsiveness solely change agenda; ü Integrate communities, NGO’s, offs within the basin and municipalities land use and (corruption), and promote have organized creating forums to discuss water and farmers future private sector and government municipalities; urban planning; prevention practices to stop Source: INPE, 2012. Source: MMA, 2015. ü Long term planning, rural and urban sustainability. Farmers complain about the lack of continuity of local long in local forums. ü Diminish gender inequality. ü Promote environmental local political interest in Vegetation Types Agricultural Landscape sustainable landscape management. term planning actions and policies due to shifts in politics every 4 years ü Avoid non planned urban education to stop land subsides to keep local ü Increase of locals and civil defense due to new elections. According to them there is a chronic lack of planning occupation. degradation. disasters vulnerability ongoing. awareness towards disasters. and integration among environmental, civil defense, agriculture and urban and Organic Rice Production NGO action – Building resilient cities Forum to discuss local climate change and natural disasters rural management. Economic globalization Other stressors Climate Our' extremes Charcoal/Coal Production
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