Decarbonisation Scenarios for the Transport Sector in Georgia
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Decarbonisation scenarios for the transport sector in Georgia Authors: Thomas Day, Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga, Swithin Lui January 2021 Decarbonisation scenarios for the transport sector in Georgia Project number 216065 © NewClimate Institute 2021 Authors Thomas Day, Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga, Swithin Lui Acknowledgements We are grateful for the contributions of Ketevan Vardosanidze, Mariam Kvaratskhelia, Ilka Starrost and Oscar Zarzo Fuertes (GIZ) for extensive research support and stakeholder engagement; Martina Kolb (GIZ) and the Mobility4Cities team for review; Anna Sikharulidze (Remissia) for LEAP modelling and review; Lasha Nakashidze (UNDP); Giorgi Mukhigulishvili (WEG), and Nino Janashia (Freie Universität Berlin) for insights and discussion; all transport sector working group participants taking place in Tbilisi in 2018 and 2019, municipality city halls of Tbilisi and Batumi, and Giorgi Gigauri for data consultations and validation; Gvantsa Gverdtsiteli (Roskilde University) and Aleksandra Savitckaia (South Pole) for research support; and Victoria Fischdick (NewClimate Institute) for communications and design support. Disclaimer This report was prepared in the frame of the cooperation between the regional GIZ project “Capacity Development for Climate Policy in the Countries of South-Eastern, Eastern Europe, South Caucasus and Central Asia, Phase III (CDCPIII)”, commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety as part of the International Climate Initiative. The analysis, results and recommendations expressed in this report represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the funder nor of the Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ GmbH). The analysis and data presented in this report represent the latest information and insights available as of 2019 and does not incorporate developments after this period. Cover picture: “Tbilisi Bus Depot” by Ephraim Stillberg, edited / CC0 Download the report http://newclimate.org/publications/ Decarbonisation scenarios for the transport sector in Georgia Table of Contents Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................................i List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................... ii List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................... iii Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................................... iv 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 5 2 The transport sector at a crossroads ................................................................................................ 6 2.1 Trends and emission drivers ................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Current challenges for road-based transport ......................................................................... 7 3 Climate change commitments, targets and plans ............................................................................. 9 3.1 The Paris Agreement ............................................................................................................. 9 3.2 Nationally Determined Contribution ..................................................................................... 10 3.3 Climate Strategy and Action Plan ........................................................................................ 11 4 Scenarios for GHG emission trajectories ....................................................................................... 12 4.1 Reference emission trajectory ............................................................................................. 12 4.1.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 12 4.1.2 Scenario overview ............................................................................................................... 14 4.2 Climate Strategy and Action Plan emission trajectory ........................................................ 15 4.2.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 15 4.2.2 Transport sector measures for the Climate Strategy Action Plan ....................................... 15 4.2.3 Scenario overview ............................................................................................................... 24 4.3 Long-term Paris Agreement compatible trajectory .............................................................. 25 4.3.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 25 4.3.2 Scenario overview ............................................................................................................... 27 5 Planning for the low carbon transition............................................................................................. 29 5.1 Avoid – shift - improve ......................................................................................................... 29 5.2 Policies and support programmes ....................................................................................... 30 5.3 Planning processes for transport policy and strategy ......................................................... 35 5.4 Integration of climate objectives in transport sector plans .................................................. 37 6 Benefits of decarbonisation in the transport sector ........................................................................ 39 6.1 Synergies with the EU Association Agreement ................................................................... 39 6.2 Synergies with the Sustainable Development Goals (2030 Agenda).................................. 41 7 Recommendations for enhanced action ......................................................................................... 45 References ............................................................................................................................................... I Annex I Reference scenario data sources and assumptions .................................................................. V Annex II Policy impact calculation assumptions ................................................................................... VIII Annex III Reference and policy scenario data ......................................................................................XVI NewClimate Institute | January 2021 i Decarbonisation scenarios for the transport sector in Georgia List of Figures Figure 1: Transport sector GHG emissions breakdown in 2015 ............................................................. 6 Figure 2: Reference scenario emission trajectory per category for transport (1990-2030) .................. 14 Figure 3: Impact of proposed measures of the Climate Strategy and Action Plan on the transport sector reference emission trajectory ................................................................................................................ 24 Figure 4: Policy scenario emission trajectory per category for transport (1990-2030).......................... 25 Figure 5: Transport sector GHG emissions pathway (direct emissions) until 2050 under decarbonisation scenarios ............................................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 6: Overview of institutional responsibility for transport sector strategy at the national and subnational level. ................................................................................................................................... 36 Figure 7: Potential structures for climate change planning processes in the transport sector .............. 38 NewClimate Institute | January 2021 ii Decarbonisation scenarios for the transport sector in Georgia List of Tables Table 1: Implications of the Paris Agreement targets for the transport sector globally ........................... 9 Table 2: Proportion of fleet scrapped, improved, or unchanged ........................................................... 16 Table 3: Composition of the LDV vehicle stock before and after the introduction of the roadworthiness regulations ............................................................................................................................................. 16 Table 4: Projected share of electric and hybrid vehicles in the LDV vehicle stock with and without the introduction of the tax incentive ............................................................................................................. 17 Table 5: Projected LDV passenger transport activity with and without the fuel tax increase policy ..... 18 Table 6: Composition of new vehicle-kilometres driven by vehicle age class before and after the introduction of the import taxes for old vehicles .................................................................................... 18 Table 7: Calculated average emissions intensity improvement for LDV fleet without (Reference) and with (Policy)