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Steps Towards the 2000-Watt Society 070729 DISS. ETH NO. 17314 INTERMEDIATE STEPS TOWARDS THE 2000- WATT SOCIETY IN SWITZERLAND: AN ENERGY-ECONOMIC SCENARIO ANALYSIS A dissertation submitted to ETH ZÜRICH for the degree of Doctor of Science presented by Thorsten Frank Schulz Dipl.-Ing., University of Stuttgart, Germany born 13.01.1977 citizen of Germany accepted on recommendation of Prof. Dr. Alexander Wokaun, examiner Prof. Dr. Konrad Hungerbühler, co-examiner Mr. Socrates Kypreos, co-examiner Zürich 2007 iii What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so. Mark Twain iv v Acknowledgment I want to thank all those people who have helped in achieving all that has been reflected in this thesis. I want to thank them for their direct and indirect support throughout my 3 ½ years stay that the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI). For me it has been a privilege to be a member of the PSI Energy Economics Group. First of all, I would like to thank my direct supervisor and Head of the Energy Economics Group Socrates Kypreos for giving me the opportunity to join his group, for introducing me to the secrets of MARKAL and for sharing his enormous experience in the complex area of energy modelling. I am sincerely thankful to my doctoral advisor Prof. Dr. Alexander Wokaun, for accepting me as a PhD student, for valuable discussions, for his guidance and support to this work. I also want to thank Prof. Dr. Konrad Hungerbühler, who kindly agreed to co-examine this thesis and provided me with helpful suggestions and comments. My very special thanks goes to Dr. Leonardo Barreto for numerous fruitful discussions, for his feedbacks, directions, encouragements and his careful reading of various reports, papers as well as this work. I greatly benefited from inputs and discussions with Dr. Stefan Hirschberg, Head of the Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis. I am deeply indebted to Dr. Martin Jakob from the Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE) for providing me detailed information on marginal-cost curves and reduction potentials of dwelling houses. I want to thank Dr. Nico Bauer, for his constructive critique and introduction to MATLAB and CPLEX. I also like to thank my friends as well as all present and past members of the Energy Economics Group who contributed in different ways to complete this work: Timur Gül, Dr. Daniel Krzyzanowski, Dr. Bertrand Magné, Dr. Peter Rafaj, Ulrich Reiter, Dr. Michael Spielmann. I am grateful to Pasquale Lauria, Ingo and Ulrich Löffler, Florian Nagel and Jürgen Schuol for being around when I needed them and for sharing the funnier moments of our lives. Finally I want to thank Dr. Mark Howells for advising me to join the Energy Economics Group. The financial support of the Swiss National Science Foundation in the context of the NCCR-Climate project is gratefully acknowledged. I dedicate this work to my family. vi vii Table of contents Acknowledgment .........................................................................................................v Table of contents ....................................................................................................... vii Nomenclature/abbreviations........................................................................................x Abstract .................................................................................................................... xiii Kurzfassung...............................................................................................................xv 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Motivation .................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Scope of the analysis................................................................................. 2 1.3 Methodology .............................................................................................. 3 1.4 Structure of the thesis................................................................................ 4 2 The 2000-Watt society ......................................................................................... 6 2.1 Description of the 2000-Watt society ......................................................... 6 2.2 Literature review ........................................................................................ 7 2.3 The 2000-Watt society from today’s perspective ......................................11 2.4 Some energy definitions ...........................................................................11 3 Defining the baseline...........................................................................................13 3.1 Structure and main assumptions of the Swiss-MARKAL model (SMM)....13 3.2 Renewable energy potential and nuclear energy......................................15 3.3 Energy and emission balances of the baseline scenario ..........................18 3.3.1 Primary-energy balances .................................................................18 3.3.2 Final-energy balances......................................................................20 3.3.3 Electricity production and consumption............................................22 3.3.4 CO 2 emissions..................................................................................24 3.4 Description of the residential sector..........................................................25 3.4.1 Base year calibration........................................................................26 3.4.2 Future projection ..............................................................................27 3.5 Description of the transportation sector ....................................................48 3.5.1 Base year calibration........................................................................49 3.5.2 Future projection ..............................................................................53 3.5.3 Detailed final-energy consumption ...................................................56 viii 4 Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society ............................59 4.1 Primary-energy balances of the 3500-Watt society ..................................59 4.2 The role of end-use sectors in the 3500-Watt society...............................63 4.3 Importance of alternative future scenarios with carbon (CO 2) restrictions 74 4.4 Energy balances of the 3500-Watt society with a 10% per decade CO 2 restrictions ................................................................................................79 4.5 Conclusions ..............................................................................................90 5 Complementary analyses....................................................................................92 5.1 Sensitivity analysis on discount rates .......................................................93 5.2 The influence of fuel-cells price and stack sizes on hydrogen cars ..........94 5.3 The influence of renewable energy-conversion equivalents on the production of electricity .............................................................................95 5.4 Partial equilibrium with elastic demands ...................................................98 5.5 Assessing wood-based synthetic-fuel technologies................................101 5.5.1 Oil price sensitivity analysis............................................................103 5.5.2 Oil price and subsidy sensitivity analysis of the methanation plant 107 5.5.3 Investment cost sensitivity analysis of the methanation plant ........108 5.5.4 The comparison of Fischer-Tropsch and methanation plants.........110 5.5.5 Remarks on the methantion plant ..................................................111 6 Conclusions and recommendations ..................................................................113 6.1 The 2000-Watt society: Results from the Swiss MARKAL model ...........113 6.1.1 Primary energy consumption and final energy implications............114 6.1.2 Technological change and CO 2 emissions.....................................116 6.1.3 Additional total system costs ..........................................................119 6.1.4 The influence of discount rates ......................................................120 6.1.5 Partial equilibrium with elastic demands.........................................121 6.2 Lessons learned .....................................................................................121 6.3 Outlook on future research .....................................................................122 References ..............................................................................................................124 List of figures ...........................................................................................................133 List of tables ............................................................................................................137 Appendix 1: Technological description of room-heating technologies .....................138 ix Appendix 2: Technological description of passenger cars.......................................139 Appendix 3: Biomass technology description ..........................................................140 Appendix 4: Final-energy calibration of the Swiss MARKAL model (SMM) to SFOE and IEA statistic of the year 2000......................................................................141 Appendix 5: Oil-price sensitivity...............................................................................142
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