THE GENERAL On Thursday night and Friday morning the BBC both in Television and Radio will be giving you the fastest possible service of Election Results. Here David Butler, one of the expert commentators on tv, explains the background to the broadcasts TELEVISION A Guide for Election Night AND RADIO 1: Terms the commentators use 2: The swing and what it means COVERAGE THERE are 630 constituencies in the United Kingdom in votes and more than 1,600 candidates. The number of seats won by a major is fairly BBC-1 will its one- party begin compre- DEPOSIT Any candidate who fails to secure exactly related to the proportion of the vote which hensive service of results on eighth (12.5%), of the valid votes in his constituency it wins. If the number of seats won by Liberals and soon after of L150. Thursday evening forfeits to the Exchequer a deposit minor parties does not change substantially the close. the polls STRAIGHT FIGHT This term is used when only following table should give a fair guide of how the At the centre of operations two candidates are standing in a constituency. 1966 Parliament will differ from the 1964 Parlia- in the Election studio at ment. (In 1964 Labour won 44.1% of vote and huge MARGINAL SEATS There is no precise definition the TV Centre in London will be 317 seats; Conservatives won 43.4 % of the vote and of a marginal seat. It is a seat where there was a Cliff Michelmore keeping you 304 seats; Liberals 11.2% of the vote and nine seats small majority at the last election or a seat that in touch with all that is �a Labour majority over all of going is to change hands. Sometimes people call parties four.) and Ian Trethowan likely on, bring- seats with of under 5,000, or under 10%, to date on the majorities ing you up But one can only decide when all the results. will be ' marginals.' latest They results are in what seats were marginal. How- backed a team of ex- really up by it is to list the or the or the under the ever, easy thirty, fifty, perts editorship 100 most Labour and Conservative seats of Paul Fox and Michael marginal on the basis of the 1964 results and to discuss them Peacock. There will also be (see Section 3). visits to key constituencies and other important places. SWING This word is used to describe in a single the in of the Labour and Although the television figure change the position Conservative since the last election. is coverage is basically similar parties Swing to the successful 1964 Elec- normally defined as the average of the change in the Labour Here tion operation there are two and Conservative share of the vote. for is what in a important innovations: a de- example might happen constituency: vice to give you the latest state of the parties on your screen all the time; and six 3: Seats to watch before midnight which will ' regional ' desks The Labour Party won in 1964 by a majority of If the Labour party is to increase its majority it used to detailed be bring you 1%. In 1966, if .five out of every 100 of the Con- must make some early gains. Here are Labour's on the Election's reports servatives' supporters vote Labour, the result could best prospects before midnight. progress in different parts of be a win for Labour by 11%, equal to a swing of the is country. (It important 5%. Thus a national swing of 5% to one party puts to note that the areas covered in danger all seats held by majorities of under 10%. the ' desks will by regional' Where there is a third party the picture is more not to necessarily correspond Swing, it must be remembered, is only the BBC's complicated. Regions.) a crude measure of the net change between the two The whole operation is de- biggest parties-in calculating it the other parties signed to keep you fully in have to be ignored. Here is an example: the picture in a way that only the BBC with its vast If the Conservatives are to regain power they resources can do in this coun- must make some gains in the early results. Their try. At the same time it will best prospects seem to be: be a window on Britain for much of the world: the pro- This shows a swing to Labour of 2%. Both Conserva- gramme will be taken by tives and Labour lost votes, but the Conservatives Eurovision and the North- lost more. To get the swing to Labour halve the American networks, two of difference (4%) and you get 2% (see Section 2). which will show it in colour. PERCENTAGE SHARE OF THE VOTE Constituen- The Radio master plan for cies vary greatly in number of electors and in the the Election, co-ordinated by proportion of electors actually voting. Therefore a The Liberal seat at stake Stephen Bonarjee, embraces direct comparison between changes in majority only among those likely the count before all the BBC regional studios (' X's fell by 5,000 while Y's only fell by 2,000') can to complete midnight is Devon as well as five studios in Broad- be very misleading. Much more intelligible contrasts North (majority 5,136). Orpington (majority 3,072) can be made if all votes is not to make a declaration until after casting House, London, each are thought of as per- expected with a specialised purpose in centages of the total vote cast so that we can say midnight. feeding the main operation 'the Labour share of the vote rose by 3% in with such ingredients as news Barsetshire but fell by 1% in nearby Blanktown.' 4: Forecasting the winner of key results, outside broad- ELECTORATE This is, almost, the same as the Around 10 o'clock on Thursday evening the first casts from constituencies- adult population: around 36-million. Electoral constituency will give its verdict in the 1966 General there will be over forty out- registers were compiled in every constituency on Election. Instantly the figures will be computed and side-broadcast points all over October 10, 1965, and every British citizen over analysed and everyone will start guessing what the the country-and expert com- twenty-one then is technically entitled to vote. final majority will be. ment and analysis. Errors in the register may affect 3% or 4% of the The TV and radio commentators will say: The - - For further details see the population: a further 6% have moved house in the party will win with a majority of if the last six months and can vote or whole behaves like Exeter Thursday and Friday pages. only by post by country (or Cheltenham, returning to their old polling district. or Salford, or whoever wins the counting race).' They ELECTION. will hastily add: But we can't be certain that the Why is it turning out like this? Is it the Liberal The hub of the Election Results country is behaving like this until we've had a few vote? Or the new towns? Is there any sign of people Service-the scene in the more results.' The commentator who is too precise abstaining from voting? Is Scotland behaving like studio at Television Centre too early may look a bit silly before the night is London? A host of such questions are stirred up as the results began to over. After the experience of 1964, partisans may by the results. come in during the last Election think it wise to wait a while before starting their Sometimes final answers may have to wait for celebrations-or drowning their sorrows. weeks-or for ever. But many can be answered How soon will it, in fact, be clear who has won? within minutes. Computers and experienced statisti- This naturally depends on how close the outcome-is cians will be working for BBC-tv and Radio through going to be. the night. By the time each result is broadcast, the If, in the early results, the swing from the 1964 computers (Honeywell H 200 for TV and IBM 7094 results is very small the tension will last quite for Radio) will have worked out swing and the turn- a long time. out. They will keep a running tally of all the votes But, if the swing is outside those margins, the cast and calculate up-to-date percentages for each commentators will be willing to commit themselves party. before very many results are in. Just how many They will analyse the results in each big city will also depend on how much the swing varies and each region and they will check whether rural between constituencies. or suburban or other types of constituency are out In the 1950s, in the great majority of constituen- of line with the rest of the country. A British cies, the swing was surprisingly close to the national election, however, presents, in computer terms, a Robert McKenzie will be using average. If you took a dozen seats at random, their very simple problem: the election results pro- a swing indicator to give a result would mirror the national result. Britain is a gramme must not, therefore, be seen as a great visual impression of likely united, not to say a uniform, nation politically. test of the studio computers. They will merely pro- majorities While the swing in the constituencies that report vide accurate information rather more quickly and early will probably mirror the swing in the rest more exhaustively than slide rules and adding of the country, the actual party strength may be a machines.