The Project for the Study on Lae-Nadzab Urban Development Plan in Papua New Guinea CHAPTER 12 INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES PLAN (Sectoral) Spatial and economic development master plans prepared in the previous Chapter 11 are the foundation of infrastructure and social service development projects. In this chapter, the Project target sector sub-projects are proposed based on the sector based current infrastructure and social service status studies illustrated in Chapter 6 of the Report. In particular, transportation sector, water supply sector, sanitation & sewage sector, waste management sector, storm water & drainage sector and social service sector (mainly education and healthcare) are discussed, and power supply sector and telecommunication sector possibilities are indicated. Each of these sub-projects is proposed in order to maximize positive impact to the regional economic development as well as spatial development in the Project Area. Current economic activities and market conditions in the region are taken into consideration with the economic development master plan in order to properly identify local needs of infrastructure and social services. The development of industry to improve economic activities in the region becomes the key to change such livelihood in Lae-Nadzab Area with stable job creation, and proposed infrastructure sub-projects will be so arranged to maximize the integration with economic development. 12.1 Land Transport 12.1.1 Travel Demand Forecasting Figure 12.1.1 shows the flowchart of the travel demand forecasting process of the Project Area. The travel analysis was based on the traditional four-step model. The data from the household survey, person trip survey, traffic count survey and roadside interview survey were the main inputs of the analysis. The main steps of the demand forecasting process with the main results are explained below. The analysis was conducted using JICA STRADA Source: JICA Project Team Figure 12.1.1 Traffic Demand Forecasting Process (1) Trip Generation Cross-classification (category analysis) method was used to estimate the trip production and trip Final Report 12-1 The Project for the Study on Lae-Nadzab Urban Development Plan in Papua New Guinea attraction rates. The person trip data were categorized by area (urban and rural) and vehicle ownership expecting different trip patterns. Although the average trip production rates were as expected slightly different by vehicle ownership (higher for those who belong to household with at least one vehicle), no significant differences by area were observed. The average daily person trip production rate obtained from the data was about 1.6 per person, a rate significantly lower than that of similar Asian cities. The data were analysed for any bias, or under reporting that resulted in the lower trip production rate. As Figure 12.1.2 shows, there are only minor discrepancies between the sample and the census distributions on age. It was, however, found that most of the students (about 60%) have not reported any trip at all. About 36% of the employees have also not reported any work related trip or trip at all. The trip rates of both urban and rural areas were corrected for the indicated underreported trips. After adjusting for the under-reporting, the average daily trip rate increased to two trips per person for both urban and rural areas. 30.0% 25.0% Sample Census 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Age Source: JICA Project Team Figure 12.1.2 Age Distribution (2) External and Truck Trips Since the person trip survey does not fully grasp the external trips (i.e., trips with at least one end outside the Project Area), traffic count and roadside interview surveys at external cordons were used to estimate them. Similarly, the truck trips were also estimated based on the traffic count and roadside interview surveys. To avoid double counting, external (passenger vehicle) and truck trips were excluded from the person trips survey. (3) Future Trips Future trips were estimated based on the expected socioeconomic and land use development. Future truck trips were estimated based on the annual growth rate of the port freight, and the external person trips based on the population growth rate. (4) Trips Distribution Gravity model was calibrated for the trip distribution, and then the estimated current and future internal trips were distributed based on the gravity model. The road side interview was used to distribute the external trips. The origin-destination matrix of the truck trips was estimated by OD Calibrator. (5) Modal Split Currently, the modal share is dominated by public motor vehicles (PMV), accounting for 75% of the motorized trips (excluding trucks), while cars account for just 25%. The economic growth and subsequent motorization is expected to shift the current modal split. An extreme future scenario in which the PMV share shrinks to 40% and that of the car increases to 60% is considered. The current Final Report 12-2 The Project for the Study on Lae-Nadzab Urban Development Plan in Papua New Guinea vehicle occupancies of 4.26 and 17.43 of cars and PMVs, respectively, are assumed to remain constant. (6) Traffic Assignment Different scenarios were considered in the traffic assignment. A base case, which shows the current traffic condition, and two future scenarios, a do-minimum case and a do-something case, were analysed. In the do-minimum case, the network is assumed to remain as it is, except for the completion of the major works (Highlands Highway Widening Project) underway and maintenance works. In the do-something case, however, the network is modified to address future traffic as explained later. In the current condition, the volume to capacity ratio (VCR) of the network is below one, except for few areas, such as Bumbu Bridge and Markham Bridge, as Figure 12.1.3 confirms. The model is good and has R-squared of 0.93, as Figure 12.1.4 of the plot of observed and estimated link flow shows. Source: JICA Project Team Figure 12.1.3 Base Case Traffic Assignment (2015) 16000 14000 12000 y = 0.8927x + 743.05 R² = 0.9332 10000 8000 6000 4000 Estimated traffic (pcu) traffic Estimated 2000 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 Observed traffic (pcu) Source: JICA Project Team Figure 12.1.4 Observed versus Modelled Link Flows Final Report 12-3 The Project for the Study on Lae-Nadzab Urban Development Plan in Papua New Guinea Major bottlenecks, however, will appear in the future if the network remains as it is, as Figure 12.1.5 of the do-minimum case shows. In this case, the traffic flow crossing Bumbu River will be severely impeded as the existing two bridges will be over capacity (VCR of North Bumbu Bridge will be 2.1, and that of South Bumbu Bridge will be 1.7). In fact, as Figure 12.1.3 of the base condition shows that the North Bumbu Bridge and approaching road sections are already congested and this was confirmed by a filed visit (Figure 12.1.6). Therefore, as the congestion would get worse with the traffic growth, it is imperative to take appropriate measures to avoid this scenario. Source: JICA Project Team Figure 12.1.5 Do-minimum Case Traffic Assignment (2025) Source: JICA Project Team Figure 12.1.6 Traffic Approaching North Bumbu Bridge in the Afternoon Peak Final Report 12-4 The Project for the Study on Lae-Nadzab Urban Development Plan in Papua New Guinea 12.1.2 Future Traffic and Network The future road network may be developed from two directions mainly focused on relieving bottlenecks and improving the level of service. (1) Relieving bottlenecks As already mentioned, one of the most compelling issues that should be addressed is the traffic flow crossing Bumbu River, as the capacity of the two bridges will be far lower than the expected traffic by 2025. One way of solving this issue could be widening the existing bridges and related roads. Another way could be developing the additional one or two bridges, however, Bumbu River is considerably wide excepting the sections where existing bridges are located at. Although more specific analysis is required to compare alternative options, the first case could be easy way. However, once the North Bumbu Bridge is widened into four lanes, some amount of the traffic passing through the South Bumbu Bridge will shift to the North, and the related sections of Bumbu Road and Independence Drive will be also over capacity. As a result, the Study proposed to widen the section of Independence Drive and Bumbu Road including the North Bumbu Bridge, into four lanes, as shown in Figure 12.1.7. Final Report 12-5 The Project for the Study on Lae-Nadzab Urban Development Plan in Papua New Guinea North Bumbu Bridge Connecting Link South Bumbu Bridge Source: JICA Project Team Figure 12.1.7 Relieving Bottleneck around Bumbu River Moreover, the two more bottlenecks are observed at Markham Bridge and the Busu Bridge & its approaching sections which are currently one lane, although their traffic is relatively low. These sections are required to be expanded into two lanes. On the other hand, although basic road sections other than intersections have enough capacities, intersections are often congested. Under the estimated traffic volume in 2025, ten intersections in Lae City exceed their capacities as a roundabout, and therefore, they should be improved into signalized intersections. Final Report 12-6 The Project for the Study on Lae-Nadzab Urban Development Plan in Papua New Guinea (2) Improving level of service Taking account of the existing major road network, topography, major cities, industrial hubs and proposed development areas, the following new major roads are proposed in order to mainly improve the level of service.