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A Critique and Re-Conceptualisation Of SCENARIOS FOR COMMUNITY-BASED MANAGEMENT OF CUTOVER NATIVE FOREST IN PAPUA NEW GUINEA Cossey Keosai Yosi Submitted in total fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy July 2011 Melbourne School of Land and Environment Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science The University of Melbourne “Produced on archival quality paper” ABSTRACT There is an increasing demand for multiple objectives from forest management worldwide and this is particularly challenging for tropical forests due to their diverse composition, structure and a wide range of stakeholder expectations and requirements. In Papua New Guinea (PNG) forest management is generally considered to be unsustainable and commercial harvesting leaves behind large forest areas to degrade overtime with little attention paid to their future management. There were four objectives of this study. The first was to assess the current condition and future production potential of cutover forests in PNG. The second objective focussed on developing scenario analyses and evaluation tools for assisting decision making in community-based management of cutover native forests. In the third objective, the study tested the tools developed under the second objective in two case study sites where extensive harvesting of primary forest had taken place in the past. The fourth objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework for community-based management of cutover native forests in PNG. The methodology used in this study was a combination of qualitative analyses of community interests and expectations in small-scale harvesting and quantitative analyses of permanent sample plots (PSPs), forest resources and cash-flow associated with different management scenarios in two case study sites. Analyses of PSPs in cutover forests showed that there was a gradual increase in residual stand basal area (BA) and timber volume over time and these forests generally showed a high degree of resilience following harvesting. In the two case study sites, timber volume for the residual stand and aboveground forest carbon (C) in the Yalu community forest were estimated at 12.7 m3 ha-1 ± 4.5 (SD) and 149.9 MgC ha-1 ± 37.5 (SD) respectively. In the Gabensis community forest, timber volume and forest C were estimated at 15.2 m3 ha-1 ± 2.8 (SD) and 162.1 MgC ha-1 ± 50.6 (SD) respectively. Analyses of field interviews in communities in the two case study sites showed that community sawmill, local processing, log export and carbon trade were the main options preferred by the communities for the future management of their cutover forests. Scenario analyses using a planning tool showed that a management regime with a short cutting cycle (10-20 years), a reduced cut proportion (50%) at the initial harvest ii and removing a proportion of only commercial timber species was sustainable. Longer cutting cycles have lower short-term yields but potentially higher yields in the long term because the forest has a greater time to recover to higher volumes for later cutting cycles. This study developed decision analyses models for community-based management of cutover forest in PNG. With the data available, the models were tested in the Yalu case study site and depending on the input variables in the model, the expected monetary value (EMV) returned was determined by the related cash flow associated with each scenario. For example, sensitivity analysis of the EMV showed that in a local processing scenario, the annual sawn timber production and sawn timber price in the overseas certified market had the largest impact on the EMV. An integrated conceptual framework for community-based forest management (CBFM) was developed in this study. The framework is appropriate for application in CBFM throughout PNG. This study concludes that the scenario evaluation and analyses tools developed are a new approach in tropical forest management and its application is justified in the context of CBFM because of the complexity and uncertainty affecting tropical forests and their management. A new policy direction in community forestry is therefore, necessary for the application of these systems in CBFM and utilisation in PNG. iii DECLARATION This is to certify that: i) the thesis comprises only my original work, ii) due acknowledgement has been made in the text to all other material used, iii) the thesis is less than 100,000 words in length, exclusive of tables, maps, references and appendices. ___________________ Cossey Keosai Yosi July 2011 iv DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to the pioneering teachers of the Zare Aingse primary school in Morobe Patrol Post of the Huon District in Papua New Guinea, who set the foundation for my education and career. In 1964 when the Zare Aingse primary school was being established, I was born at Kaingze hamlet near Aingse village. The pioneering teachers at that time were; Mr. Eike Guguwa, Mr. Arataung Kuru and the late Mr. Naira. During that time, because there were no classrooms, school children were taught in a small hut at Zare village. From 1966 to 1969, the school was relocated and a small patch of coconut trees near Aingse village was cleared by the village people and a few classrooms were built from the bush material. During those days, the English language was non-existent and the school children were taught in the Zia dialect. In 1970, the school was relocated to Seboro near what is now the Wizi hamlet. At this stage the official English language was used to teach the school children and I was among the first village school children to enrol at the school when English was introduced at primary school level in this part of the country. From 1970 to 1976, the following teachers taught in the school using English as the official language for education; Mr. Zama, Mr. Bera Koi, Mr. Amo, Ms. Anake Guguwa, Ms. Zane Tunina, late Mr. Mainuwe Kelly Seregi, Mr. Tingkeo Puro, Mr. Waria Woreti, and Mr. Don Amos. In 1976 I completed my Year 6 and in 1977 I said goodbye to my village, my school and my village friends when I was among the seven local students selected by the Education Department to start a new life of modern education in the urban centre of Lae (now PNG‘s second city). My modern education started then at the Bugandi High School (now Bugandi Secondary School) and in 1980 I completed my Year 10 education. After completing Year 12 in 1982 at the Passam National High School in Wewak, East Sepik Province (one of PNG‘s four national high schools at that time), I went on to study a three year Diploma in Forestry course at the PNG Forestry College in Bulolo and graduated in 1985. Three years later I received a PNG Government scholarship and completed a Forest Science Degree course at the PNG University of Technology in Lae and graduated in 1992. Since then, it has taken me 19 long years to have reached this far, a PhD. I humbly salute the pioneering teachers of the Zare Aingse primary school, those who have passed away and those who are still alive, for starting this challenging journey for me. v PREFACE PSP data used in Chapter 3 are the property of the Papua New Guinea Forest Authority (PNGFA) and its Research Institute and the International Tropical Timber Organisation (ITTO) research Project number PD162/92. Data for the forest assessment in case study sites in Chapter 4 are from the implementation of a collaborative research project between The University of Melbourne and PNG project partners, PNG Forest Research Institute (PNGFRI) and Village Development Trust (VDT) under the ACIAR Project number FST/2004/061. The Decision Tree Models developed in Chapter 6 are based on a Spreadsheet Modelling and Decision Analysis technique. Two Excel Spreadsheet add-ins called TreePlan and SensIT were used to develop the models and carry out sensitivity analyses. TreePlan and SensIT were developed by Professor Michael R. Middleton at the University of San Francisco and modified for use at Fuqua (Duke) by Professor James E. Smith. The following sections of this thesis are contained in publications. Parts of Chapter 1 and 2 are contained in; Yosi, C.K., Keenan, J.R. and Fox, J.C. 2011. Forest management in Papua New Guinea: historical development and future directions. In: J. C. Fox, R. J. Keenan, C. L. Brack, and S. Saulei (Eds). Native forest management in Papua New Guinea: advances in assessment, modelling, and decision-making. ACIAR Proceeding No. 135, 18-31. Australian Center for International Agricultural Research, Canberra. Chapter 3 has been published in; Yosi, C.K., Keenan, R.J. and Fox, J.C. 2011. Forest dynamics after selective timber harvesting in Papua New Guinea. Forest Ecology and Management, 262, 895-905. Parts of Chapter 5 and 6 are contained in; Yosi, C.K., Keenan, R.J., Coote, D.C. and Fox, J.C. 2011. Evaluating scenarios for community-based management of cutover forests in Papua New Guinea. In: J. C. Fox, R. J. Keenan, C. L. Brack, and S. Saulei (Eds). Native forest management in Papua New Guinea: advances in assessment, modelling, and decision-making. ACIAR Proceeding No. 135, 185-201. Australian Center for International Agricultural Research, Canberra. vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis would not have been completed without the support of various people and organisations. Firstly, I would like to extend my special appreciation to my supervisors Professor Rodney J. Keenan and Dr. Julian C. Fox for their professional advice, encouragement, and support provided throughout this study. The regular consultations, meetings, and networking that I have had with the two of you had motivated me to stay focused on the completion of this thesis, and I sincerely thank you both very much. I also thank both of you for your willingness to provide constructive discussions, feedback and comments on draft chapters, and related support during the duration of my study.
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