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Financial Street Holding Co (000402.SZ) in Line With August 19, 2010 EARNINGS REVIEW Financial Street Holding Co (000402.SZ) Neutral Research Report In line with expectations: lacking catalysts in 2H10; stay Neutral What surprised us Investment Profile Financial Street reported 1H10 results with net profit down 33% yoy to Low High Rmb508 mn, in line and achieving 47% of our full year forecasts. Excluding Growth Growth one-off gains (revaluations, assets disposals, etc), core profit came in at Returns * Returns * Multiple Multiple Rmb277 mn, up 71% yoy. Highlights: (1) 1H10 gross margin increased Volatility Volatility 7ppt yoy mainly due to the booked high margin project, Tianjin Jinmen. Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th We expect full year margins to trend down as the contribution from lower- Financial Street Holding Co (000402.SZ) margin projects increases. (2) 1H10 contract sales lagged peers with Asia Pacific Property Peer Group Average * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the Rmb2.7 bn achieved or 39% of our full year target of Rmb7.1 bn vs. peers’ investment profile measures please refer to c. 54%, due to limited new launches. We expect 2H10 contract sales to the disclosure section of this document. slightly improve driven by more launches but see little chance of a Key data Current surprise on the upside. (3) Investment properties operations were on Price (Rmb) 7.44 12 month price target (Rmb) 6.85 track in 1H10 with 43% of ‘10E full year revenue estimates of Rmb799 mn Market cap (Rmb mn / US$ mn) 22,521.5 / 3,315.8 achieved and we expect them to contribute c. 15% of total 2010E earnings. Foreign ownership (%) -- 12/09 12/10E 12/11E 12/12E What to do with the stock EPS (Rmb) New 0.45 0.36 0.35 0.39 Post the results, we fine tune our 2010-2012E earnings by 14%/1%/1%, EPS revision (%) 0.0 13.7 1.4 1.5 EPS growth (%) 31.4 (20.4) (2.9) 11.9 respectively, and slightly revise our NAV based 12-month target price to EPS (dil) (Rmb) New 0.45 0.36 0.35 0.39 P/E (X) 16.5 20.7 21.3 19.1 Rmb6.85 (from Rmb6.56), after modeling in recent new land acquisitions. P/B (X) 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 The stock trades at a 35% discount to end-2010E potential NAV and 20.7X EV/EBITDA (X) 25.5 17.0 20.4 17.6 Dividend yield (%) 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 2010E P/E, vs. A-share peers’ average 33% discount and 16.6X. Retain ROE (%) 9.1 6.8 6.3 6.8 Neutral. Downside risks: Unexpected government tightening; Upside risks: Better-than-expected contract sales. Price performance chart 1H10 result comparison 13 1,600 12 1,500 Rmb mn 1H09 2H09 1H10 YoY% 2009A 2010E YoY% 11 1,400 Revenue 1,504 4,727 1,980 32% 6,231 6,878 10% Gross margin 32.5% 23.2% 39.4% +7 ppt 25.5% 33.3% +8 ppt 10 1,300 Net profit 755 610 508 -33% 1,366 1,087 -20% 9 1,200 Core profit 162 610 277 71% 782 857 10% 8 1,100 Core margin 10.8% 12.9% 14.0% +3 ppt 12.5% 12.5% +0 ppt 7 1,000 Core EPS (Rmb) 0.05 0.20 0.09 71% 0.26 0.28 10% 6 900 Advance from customers 904 2,811 4,156 360% 2,811 2,655 -6% Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Net gearing 21% 27% 68% +47 ppt 27% 62% +35 ppt Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates Financial Street Holding Co (L) Shenzhen A Index (R) INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Neutral Absolute 6.3 (14.9) (26.1) Rel. to Shenzhen A Index (7.1) (15.3) (37.0) Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 8/18/2010 close. Coverage View: Attractive China Real Estate Jason Sun SAC License No. S1420208080017 Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited and its affiliates do and +86(10)6627-3187 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a Yi Wang, CFA SAC License No. S1420206030005 result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of +86(21)2401-8930 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification, or contact your investment representative. Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Investment Research August 19, 2010 Financial Street Holding Co (000402.SZ) Financial Street Holding Co: Summary Financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/09 12/10E 12/11E 12/12E Balance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/09 12/10E 12/11E 12/12E Total revenue 6,231.5 6,877.8 7,574.8 10,125.0 Cash & equivalents 13,188.7 8,661.0 6,740.8 7,530.0 Cost of goods sold (4,644.0) (4,590.8) (5,267.9) (7,346.6) Accounts receivable 1,148.3 942.2 1,037.7 1,387.0 SG&A (404.5) (481.4) (530.2) (708.8) Inventory 18,549.5 22,539.4 26,596.4 25,192.8 R&D -- -- -- -- Other current assets 492.1 546.5 601.1 661.2 Other operating profit/(expense) 109.7 127.0 0.0 0.0 Total current assets 33,378.7 32,689.1 34,975.9 34,770.9 EBITDA 1,292.7 1,932.5 1,776.7 2,069.6 Net PP&E 1,678.5 2,606.4 3,363.9 4,376.4 Depreciation & amortization (86.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net intangibles 684.6 684.6 684.6 684.6 EBIT 1,206.6 1,932.5 1,776.7 2,069.6 Total investments 6,019.5 6,019.5 6,019.5 6,019.5 Interest income 0.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 Other long-term assets 592.7 711.3 782.4 860.6 Interest expense (290.4) (638.1) (414.4) (671.4) Total assets 42,354.1 42,710.9 45,826.3 46,712.1 Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. (5.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others 1,006.4 180.0 0.0 0.0 Accounts payable 4,291.0 2,515.5 3,608.2 5,031.9 Pretax profits 1,917.5 1,554.4 1,442.3 1,478.2 Short-term loans 4,100.0 4,600.0 5,100.0 5,600.0 Income tax (543.4) (439.3) (360.6) (369.5) Other current liabilities 3,956.7 3,800.2 3,490.1 1,123.2 Minorities (8.4) (27.9) (25.7) 73.4 Total current liabilities 12,347.7 10,915.7 12,198.2 11,755.1 Long-term debt 13,382.4 14,382.4 15,382.4 15,882.4 Net income pre-preferred dividends 1,365.6 1,087.1 1,056.1 1,182.1 Other long-term liabilities 680.3 680.3 748.3 823.2 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 14,062.7 15,062.7 16,130.8 16,705.6 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 1,365.6 1,087.1 1,056.1 1,182.1 Total liabilities 26,410.5 25,978.4 28,329.0 28,460.7 Post-tax exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net income 1,365.6 1,087.1 1,056.1 1,182.1 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total common equity 15,515.4 16,276.4 17,015.6 17,843.0 EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) 0.45 0.36 0.35 0.39 Minority interest 428.2 456.1 481.8 408.4 EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb) 0.45 0.36 0.35 0.39 Total liabilities & equity 42,354.1 42,710.9 45,826.3 46,712.1 EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb) 0.45 0.36 0.35 0.39 BVPS (Rmb) 5.13 5.38 5.62 5.89 DPS (Rmb) 0.120.110.100.12RNAV (Rmb mn) -- 34,550.0 38,769.2 -- Dividend payout ratio (%) 27.3 30.0 30.0 30.0 RNAVPS (Rmb) -- 11.41 12.81 -- Free cash flow yield (%) (6.8) (24.1) (10.6) 3.0 Growth & margins (%) 12/09 12/10E 12/11E 12/12E Ratios 12/09 12/10E 12/11E 12/12E Sales growth 11.4 10.4 10.1 33.7 ROE (%) 9.1 6.8 6.3 6.8 EBITDA growth (2.0) 49.5 (8.1) 16.5 ROA (%) 3.9 2.6 2.4 2.6 EBIT growth (8.5) 60.2 (8.1) 16.5 ROACE (%) 8.7 6.4 4.6 4.9 Net income growth 31.4 (20.4) (2.9) 11.9 Inventory days 1,158.3 1,633.4 1,702.2 1,286.5 EPS growth 31.4 (20.4) (2.9) 11.9 Receivables days 72.9 55.5 47.7 43.7 Gross margin 25.5 33.3 30.5 27.4 Payable days 244.5 270.6 212.1 214.6 EBITDA margin 20.7 28.1 23.5 20.4 Net debt/equity (%) 26.9 61.7 78.5 76.4 EBIT margin 19.4 28.1 23.5 20.4 Interest cover - EBIT (X) 4.2 3.5 5.3 3.5 Cash flow statement (Rmb mn) 12/09 12/10E 12/11E 12/12E Valuation 12/09 12/10E 12/11E 12/12E Net income pre-preferred dividends 1,365.6 1,087.1 1,056.1 1,182.1 P/E basic (X) 16.5 20.7 21.3 19.1 D&A add-back 86.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/B (X) 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 Minorities interests add-back 8.4 27.9 25.7 (73.4) EV/EBITDA (X) 25.5 17.0 20.4 17.6 Net (inc)/dec working capital (2,586.4) (5,559.2) (3,059.8) 2,478.1 Dividend yield (%) 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 Other operating cash flow (444.4) 354.7 608.3 (1,461.0) Cash flow from operations (1,570.6) (4,089.5) (1,369.8) 2,125.7 Underlying valuation 12/09 12/10E 12/11E 12/12E Capital expenditures (171.3) (927.9) (757.5) (1,012.5) Underlying profit (Rmb mn) 781.8 1,087.1 1,056.1 1,182.1 Acquisitions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Underlying EPS (Rmb) 0.26 0.36 0.35 0.39 Divestitures 20.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others 118.2 (638.1) (966.9) (1,007.2) Underlying ROE (%) 5.2 6.8 6.3 6.8 Cash flow from investments (32.9) (1,566.0) (1,724.4) (2,019.7) Underlying ROA (%) 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.6 Underlying ROACE (%) 5.5 6.4 4.6 4.9 Dividends paid (common & pref) (372.2) (372.2) (326.1) (316.8) Underlying P/E (X) 28.8 20.7 21.3 19.1 Inc/(dec) in debt 8,246.8 1,500.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 Underlying dividend payout (%) 47.6 30.0 30.0 30.0 Common stock issuance (repurchase) 200.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Underlying EPS growth (%) (28.1) 39.1 (2.9) 11.9 Other financing cash flows (581.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash flow from financing 7,494.0 1,127.8 1,173.9 683.2 Total cash flow 5,890.4 (4,527.7) (1,920.3) 789.2 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.
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