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COUNTRY Food Security Update NIGER Food Security Outlook Update February 2015 The security crisis in Nigeria spreads to Diffa, triggering internal population displacements KEY MESSAGES Most likely estimated food security outcomes for The security problems affecting northeastern Nigeria have February-March 2015 spread to the Diffa region of Niger, where armed groups linked to Boko Haram have been mounting deadly attacks for the last three weeks. Satisfaction of the food consumption needs of displaced populations from Nigeria and host households in the Diffa region hinges on the continuation of ongoing deliveries of adequate food assistance. The food needs of most households across the country are being met by household food stocks and market purchase, except in the Diffa region where there is a troubling humanitarian situation. Thus, the large majority of livelihood zones and their local populations will continue to experience Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) through at least the month of June. Source: FEWS NET With the decrease in their food access, poor households in the Ouallam, Tchintabaraden, Abalak, Goure, and Maine Most likely estimated food security outcomes for Soroa areas will face food consumption deficits between April-June 2015 March and June 2015, the effects of which could be limited by assistance between March and June. CURRENT SITUATION Generally lasting for an estimated four to five months in an average year (from October to February), this year, household food security reserves in farming and agropastoral areas could last until March, depending on the area. The longer duration of household food stocks for 2015 is attributable to the string of three consecutive average to good crop years and resulting gradual build-up of food and physical resources. In addition, large yields of tubers, fruits, and legumes from off-season irrigated farming activities are facilitating access to these foodstuffs for Source: FEWS NET poor households increasingly willing to modify their eating habits These maps show relevant acute food insecurity outcomes for based on current food availability. emergency decision-making. They do not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Learn more here. There are near-average to below-average levels of consumer demand on domestic markets. Other favorable food security conditions include large rural and urban market supplies of cereals at near-average prices helping to reduce food spending by food-short farming and pastoral households. The average price of millet (the main staple cereal) is still more or less on par with the five-year average. Thus, in general, the combined effects of local (two to three consecutive good main harvests) and external factors (good production levels in Nigeria and cereal transfers) are helping to bring down prices on all monitored markets compared with figures for last year. However, staple food prices are on the rise, driven by the disruption of marketing networks in the Diffa region and a heightened demand in Ouallam department, where January 2015 prices were above-average by anywhere from 11 to 22 percent. Household sources of income are currently being bolstered by sales of cash crops (cowpea, groundnut, and sesame crops, as well as market garden produce) and livestock. An examination of price data for livestock shows relatively consistent FEWS NET NIGER FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government NIGER Food Security Outlook Update February 2015 trends in January 2015 prices, with the selling prices of all species of animals above-average by 15 to 25 percent. However, the market value of livestock in pastoral areas of the Diffa region and eastern Zinder is lower than usual due to the slump in demand from northeastern Nigeria and Libya. With the precarious condition of pastures in pastoral areas this year, the disruption in seasonal migratory movements by transhumant herds, and their heavy dependence on regional and sub-regional markets for livestock sales and cereal purchases, the outbreaks of violence in several parts of the sub-region have made pastoral households vulnerable to food insecurity. The disruption of normal marketing networks in pastoral areas of Tchintabaraden, Abalak, Goure, and Nguigmi in particular with the conflicts in Libya and Nigeria has reduced demand for livestock, weakening the sources of income of pastoral households. Deteriorating terms of trade for livestock/cereals are curtailing the access of pastoral households to food and cash. As the receiving area for more than 100,000 displaced persons from Nigeria, whose presence has weakened local food security conditions, the southern reaches of the Diffa region forming the country’s border with northeastern Nigeria has been the target of multiform attacks by Boko Haram for more than two weeks. These deadly attacks have already triggered internal population displacements. UPDATED ASSUMPTIONS Trends in food security indicators support the projected food security outlook for January through June 2015, except in the Diffa region where added shocks from the conflict with Boko Haram are having a growing impact on the local population. PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JUNE 2015 There will be good food security conditions in most farming and agropastoral areas of the country, ensured by yields of food crops from irrigated farming activities and a good availability of cereals on local markets at affordable average prices for households with sufficient farm, pastoral, and remittance income to meet their food and non-food expenses. In general, most areas will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through June 2015. However, there is a high likelihood of the emergence of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) if not higher levels of food insecurity in Ouallam, Abalak, Tchintabaraden, and Gouré departments and the Diffa region. The combined effects of pasture deficits and security problems disrupting communications with host countries for migrants and receiving areas for livestock will create a household food security situation in Nguigmi department marked by losses of income and a sharp reduction in the quality and quantity of food consumption. The prolongation of these unfavorable conditions will cause poor households to experience livelihood protection deficits translating into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security conditions in February-March and food consumption deficits and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions between April and June 2015, even with assistance. Conditions in pastoral areas of eastern Zinder will be similar, though less severe. The outbreak of violence linked to the Boko Haram movement in the Diffa region and, in particular, in the South will slow down economic activities and humanitarian programs for displaced persons and poor households. Should this continue, it will affect the market system and could create a food Crisis (IPC Phase 3) affecting poor resident households and displaced persons between April and June 2015. ABOUT THIS REPORT This monthly report covers current conditions as well as changes to the projected outlook for food insecurity in this country. It updates FEWS NET’s quarterly Food Security Outlook. Learn more about our work here. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 .
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