Opportunities for High-Speed Railways in Developing and Emerging Countries: A case study Egypt vorgelegt von Dipl.-Ing. Mahmoud Ahmed Mousa Ali aus Aswan, Ägypten Von der Fakultät V - Verkehrs- und Maschinensysteme der Technischen Universität Berlin Zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Doktor der Ingenieurwissenschaften - Dr.-Ing. - genehmigte Dissertation Promotionsausschuss: Vorsitzender: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jürgen Thorbeck Berichter: Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jürgen Siegmann Berichter: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Mohamed Hafez Fahmy Aly Tag der wissenschaftliche Aussprache: 06.09.2012 Berlin 2012 D 83 Opportunities for High-Speed Railways in Developing and Emerging Countries: A case study Egypt By M.Sc. Mahmoud Ahmed Mousa Ali from Aswan- Egypt M.Sc. Institute of Land and Sea Transport Systems- Department of Track and Railway Operations - TU Berlin- Berlin- Germany - 2009 A Thesis Submitted to Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Transport Systems- TU Berlin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of Doctor of the Railways Engineering Approved Dissertation Promotion Committee: Chairman: Prof. Dr. – Eng. Jürgen Thorbeck Referee: Prof. Dr. - Eng. habil. Jürgen Siegmann Referee: Prof. Dr. - Eng. Mohamed Hafez Fahmy Aly Day of scientific debate: 06.09.2012 Berlin 2012 D 83 This dissertation is dedicated to: My parents and my family for their love, My wife for her help and continuous support, My son, Ahmed, for their sweet smiles that give me energy to work In a world that is constantly changing, there is no one subject or set of subjects that will serve you for the foreseeable future, let alone for the rest of your life. The most important skill to acquire now is learning how to learn. John Naisb ACKNOWLEDGMENT First and foremost, countless thanks go to the God To my thesis director, Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jürgen Siegmann, director of Department Track and Railway Operations, for his permanent guidance and support during the elaboration of this research. I learned a lot from him directly and indirectly. He has played an important role in directing my work wisely at critical moments as well as been a vital tool in its execution. Indeed, he has taught me how to learn, think, and search. It is only thanks to his strong encouragement, profound interest and extensive knowledge that this dissertation has been possible. At the moment of closing this work, I realize that it has been an immense privilege to benefit from his exemplar dedication to railway research and teaching, and I can only wish that it will continue in the years to come. I am grateful to Prof. Dr.-Ing. Mohamed Hafez Fahmy ALy for his kindness in supporting my research and his real cooperation with me and also for his persistent questioning that strengthened of this thesis. I am grateful to Professor Peter Mnich for continuously providing constructive feedback to my research and insightful advice on my career development. I want to thank some colleagues from ILS; C. Weise, Dinh Truyen, and Dayoub for spurring me to expand my knowledge and for their help when I was getting settled and for all the talks we had I would like to thank those people who contributed to making this work feasible through providing direct help, financing, sharing their knowledge and enthusiasm or simply through their friendship, support, patience and love. They were so many that I am faced with immense task and risk not mentioning someone that deserves at least as much recognition as those presented here. This work was executed in a new city, a new country and a new reality. I will always remember those first cold days of the year in Berlin and all the life, and further, the beauty of this excellent small city and the forests and fields around it. Special thanks go to my country Egypt that allowed me to get the chance of studying in Germany, and provided me the financial support, in the form of my scholarship. I want to dedicate this thesis to my parents for their endless love and support, and their persistent confidence in my ability to complete this journey. Finally, I want to express my deepest thank to my wife Abeer for her advice, tenderness, and above all for her real love. She always supported and pushed me, and besides, she left her home country to stay with me in Germany. She spent alone for long time while I was being in my work. She really contributed to my success because she never thought about herself. Eventually, I would like to mention my child (Ahmed), Mother and Father. They really add a special taste to my life, which supported me indirectly. Mahmoud A. M. Ali Berlin, August 2012 I ABSTRACT If the railway transport is to be important and succeed in the intermodal the commercial market of passenger services for long-distance, it must demonstrate its ability to compete with road and air transport. The main thing is to gain a bigger share of the volume of traffic in convenient travel times which, in turn, can be achieved only by operating at high speeds. In fact, the number of cases that have been achieving sustainable improvements in modal split for rail transport was introduced only when the private sector participate in the operation and construction of some lines. That introduced a completely new passenger rail and long-distance services, and through additional enhancements. As high-speed trains (HST) and quality requires the services of railway transport efficient vehicles and the development of infrastructure. High-speed rail (HSR) lines are generally planned to serve corridors with high passenger demand on the existing traditional railroads lines (or high demand of passenger in corridors), which currently is not correctly served by available railway transport services. These corridors usually have large markets concentrated around major cities. In addition, passengers in the developed country are divided into those who can take an HSR train directly to their destination stations and those who cannot. The best route choices are assumed by minimizing the generalized cost of travel in the available alternatives. The relationship between demand-supply characteristics such as value of time, speed, train departure time, trip length and fares is explored to determine market limits by comparing different routing strategies for each type of passenger. Important parameters to increase the attractiveness of a high-speed system which are connect urban centre area with each other in a short journey time. In the developing and emerging countries, government should support funding, where this funding is a key to the financing of new rail projects as transport projects are infrastructure projects that need huge investments for upgrading and maintenance. Investment in HSR is a government decision with major effects on the cost of rail transport; and therefore on the modal split in corridors where private operators compete for traffic and charge prices close to total producer costs (including infrastructure). The rationale for HSR investment is not different to any other public investment decision. They represent an important part of any state's assets. Given the fact that the investments needed for transport projects are huge and costly at the same time, funding of these projects has become one of the biggest challenges. A scarcity in funds has resulted in a situation where transport services always lack upgrading. There is an urgent need for drawing up funding methods that prop the amounts of money the government allocates in this respect. Applying international models in this regard is important. The government in the developing and emerging countries are responsible for transport infrastructure. At the same time, services are offered by government bodies. Economic and business considerations are crucial for any of these actors when deciding whether to participate in such projects. The private sector is still unable to take part in the execution of infrastructure projects, like roads, railways, bridges, and airports. The present study examines whether, and under which conditions, long-distance passenger rail services can be operated economically with subsidies from government and participate private sector for operation or/and construction of some lines. If public funds should be allocated to this mode of transport if its net expected social benefit is higher than the existing alternative. To do so, should be encouraged the private sector to participation in the establishment of this project. To calculate the expected traffic volume in relation to the quality of available options offered by all modes of transport, II the study reproduces the principles of travellers’ behavior and it can used analyzed using by comparing with the another projects in the developed countries such as Germany and France. Moreover, to determine the most important influencing factors, the various cost drivers are identified. As well as the effects of changes in social, legal, financial and political conditions for example as a consequence of rising energy prices or wide fluctuations in interest rates. The results of the analysis is that, compared with competing transport modes, the strengths of rail transport is to be found in the medium to long-term direct links that are designed to improved traffic, at constant high-speed. If the average speed of 200-250km /h can be achieved in such ways, and the market shares of up to 50% is possible, and generate traffic just is not enough to cover all operating costs, are these fonts hence that will lead to improve the strength of rail transport or that the establishment of these projects is not a meaningful. But also to achieve the operating surplus which, in turn, can be applied to the initial investment. Although it seems that the infrastructure of the railway without any funding subsidies in general can not be achieved, the share of total expenses borne by state and local governments can be reduced substantially, and also what are the factors that help create a new HSR lines in developing and emerging countries.