Monthly Forecast
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February 2021 Monthly Forecast 1 Overview Overview 1 In Hindsight: Subsidiary Bodies Chairs and Penholders for 2021 In February, the UK will have the presidency of Panel of Experts assisting the 1591 Sudan 3 Status Update since our the Security Council. Its signature events will focus Sanctions Committee. January Forecast on climate change and COVID-19. The high-level Regarding the Middle East, there will be the 4 Central African meeting on security risks in climate-vulnerable monthly meeting on developments in Yemen, as Republic contexts is expected to be chaired by UK Prime well as a briefing by the chair of the 2140 Yemen 6 COVID-19 Minister Boris Johnson. The COVID-19 meeting Sanctions Committee. The renewal of Yemen will focus on equitable access to vaccines, especially financial and travel ban sanctions and the mandate 7 Syria in conflict-affected areas; UK Foreign Secretary of the Yemen Panel of Experts is also anticipated. 9 Myanmar Dominic Raab is expected to chair. Other Middle East issues that will be 10 Sudan There will also be a briefing on the threat considered include: 12 Counter-Terrorism posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant • Iraq, update on UNAMI and on the missing and the Secretary-General’s twelfth strategic-level Kuwaiti and third-country nationals and 13 Yemen report on this issue. missing Kuwaiti property, including the 14 Iraq Several meetings are planned on Somalia. The national archives; 16 Somalia Council will receive a briefing on developments • The Middle East, including the Palestinian 17 Haiti in Somalia and the UN Assistance Mission in Question, the monthly briefing; and 19 Climate Change and Somalia (UNSOM). A meeting is also planned • Syria, the regular briefings on the political Security on the 751 Somalia sanctions committee. At and humanitarian situations and on the use of the end of the month the Council is expected to chemical weapons. 20 DPRK (North Korea) renew the authorisation of the AU Mission in Two meetings on Asia are anticipated: on Somalia (AMISOM). Myanmar and the 1718 Democratic People’s Other African issues include: Republic of Korea Sanctions Committee. • CAR, update on developments and the most Finally, there will also be a meeting on the UN recent MINUSCA report; and Integrated Office inHaiti (BINUH). • Sudan, renewal of the mandate of the In Hindsight: Subsidiary Bodies’ Chairs and Penholders for 2021 The presidential note on the election of the Guidance and Practice in the Selection of Subsidiary chairs and vice-chairs of subsidiary bodies for Body Chairs 2021, issued on 7 January, was the culmination In 2016, the Informal Working Group on Doc- of almost six months of negotiations among the umentation and Other Procedural Questions Security Council’s incoming and permanent (IWG) issued a presidential note on transitional members (P5). Despite new working methods put arrangements for elected members (S/2016/619) 29 January 2021 in place in 2016 to facilitate a more efficient and calling on Council members “to make every effort This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. transparent process, getting agreement this time to agree provisionally on the appointment of the was protracted and challenging. The difficulties chairs of the subsidiary organs for the following For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please had as much to do with the negotiations between year no later than 1 October”. Since then, mem- subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” the permanent and elected members as is it did bers have made concerted effort to reach agree- series at securitycouncilreport.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. with competition among elected members to head ment by this date, although it has never quite been particular subsidiary bodies, coupled with reluc- met. Even if the list is agreed before the end of tance to take on others. the year, the presidential note setting out the new Security Council Report Monthly Forecast February 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Subsidiary Bodies Chairs and Penholders for 2021 chairs of subsidiary bodies is traditionally concerning Al-Qaida and the Taliban was in 2019, Germany appointed its deputy per- issued at the beginning of January. split into one committee for more general manent representative as chair of the 1970 The transitional arrangements conveyed terrorist listings, and another for the Taliban. Libya Sanctions Committee. Now, Norway in the 2016 Note were incorporated in the Second, the 2021 presidential note con- has appointed its deputy permanent repre- 2017 “Note 507” on working methods. These tains two footnotes. The first states that sentative as chair of the DPRK Sanctions arrangements included that consultations on “India will be the Chair of the counter-ter- Committee. Late in the negotiations, ques- the appointment should begin as soon as pos- rorism committee until the end of 2022, tions arose over the role of vice-chairs and sible after the elections and be conducted in a after Tunisia leaves the chair”. The second how they are chosen. The guidelines of many “balanced, transparent, efficient and inclusive footnote states that Mexico will be the Vice- subsidiary bodies state that, when the chair is way” by two members of the Council “work- Chair of the Working Group on Children unable to chair a meeting, they will nominate ing in full cooperation”. The understanding and Armed Conflict until the end of 2022, one of the vice-chairs or a representative of from the start has been that the two mem- after Niger concludes its term as Vice-Chair. their mission. While chairs often use the lat- bers in question would be the IWG chair and In effect, these negotiations have selectively ter option, it appears that an actively engaged one permanent member. This year, St. Vin- brought 2022 chairing arrangements into vice-chair, working closely with the chair, is cent and the Grenadines, as chair of the IWG, the mix, giving some members dibs on more strongly positioned to play a substan- coordinated the process among the incom- future year arrangements and taking these tive role. Further discussion may be needed ing members and worked on the list of chairs slots off the table for the 2022 incoming on how vice-chairs can best be utilised. with the “P5 coordinator”, a position that members. While similar verbal agreements Representational level also featured in the rotates quarterly. Last year, France was the have been made in the past, these footnotes negotiating process. The initial discussions P5 coordinator from August to October 2020, formalise such commitments. among the incoming members were held at and China from November to January 2021. permanent representative level, with final Reflections and Takeaways discussions among the political coordina- This Year’s Process This year’s negotiations may have been espe- tors. The P5 were apparently represented at This year’s elected members made a prom- cially complicated due to the mix of subsid- political coordinator level throughout the dis- ising start. The first meeting to discuss sub- iary bodies available as well as the composi- cussions, creating a perception of imbalance. sidiary body chairs took place in late June, tion of the five incoming members. With three It is possible that having more engagement shortly after the five incoming members were of the five members having similar priorities among the P5 permanent representatives elected on 17 June 2020. By early July, an regarding protection issues, files such as chil- might allow for easier agreement. initial list of members’ preferences had been dren and armed conflict, women, peace and There is also a continuity argument for drawn up. There were ten subsidiary bodies security and climate and security were hotly designating one P5 coordinator to serve available: six sanctions committees and four contested. At the other end of the spectrum throughout the negotiations, rather than the subsidiary organs. Agreement was reached were “undesirable” sanctions committees, mid-way change entailed by the position’s on all the vacant slots except for one sanc- perceived as singularly politically sensitive or usual three-month rotation cycle, although tions committee, which was viewed as politi- resource-intensive. It was hard for the incom- this does not seem to have been an impedi- cally sensitive. One thematic working group ing five to present a list without gaps or over- ment in the recent process. had two elected members vying for the chair: lap, despite the general perception that giving it was proposed to split the chair, with each the P5 an incomplete list is more likely to Penholderships and Burden-sharing member getting a year. This initial list was result in a reshuffling of positions. While today the subsidiary body chair posi- conveyed to the P5 in mid-August. The P5 This year informal bodies, such as the tions are all filled by elected members, the responded with a counter-proposal in late Informal Experts Group on women, peace position of penholder on most country files is September, which was not acceptable to sev- and security and the choice of the elected largely in the hands of the P3, with few such eral incoming members. Following further members for the Peacebuilding Commission penholder positions available to elected mem- discussions, the incoming members agreed were treated as part of the mix of subsidiary bers—currently only Afghanistan, Guinea- to resubmit the original list, this time with bodies and included in the list given to the Bissau, the Syria humanitarian file and West no vacant slot or shared positions. The P5 P5. In previous years, positions for informal Africa and the Sahel. (The penholder role accepted most of the allocations, but further bodies were de-linked from the appointment refers to the member of the Council that leads negotiations were needed with at least one process for formal subsidiary bodies and they the negotiation and drafting of resolutions on incoming member that remained dissatisfied do not appear in the presidential note on the a particular Council agenda item.