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Evidence and Policy Summer School 2018 Programme 1 This s a publication by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. EU Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc Ispra: European Commission, 2019 © European Union, 2019 The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Except otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the EU, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. All content © European Union, 2019 The use of country names in this program does not imply any position by the organizers on the official name or legal status of these countries 2 Table of Contents Plenary session 1 Use of Global models for policy recommendations, M. Wörsdörfer 11 Parallel sessions 1 Model Transparency and sensitivity analysis The challenge of achieving modelling transparency for policy makers, Rosen R.A. 17 It started with a KISS: making complex modelling accessible, transparent and understandable, Caivano A. et al. 18 Knowing unknowns: adapting uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for impact assessment and policy-making, Becker W. et al. 20 What has global sensitivity analysis ever done for us? A systematic review to inform policymaking through earth system modelling, Pianosi F., Wagener T. 22 Modelling of uncertainty in defining safe operating spaces (SOS) in aquatic systems for support of policy development, Gal G., Ofir E. 23 Scenarios, model linkages and data for policy Assessing the costs of EU truck CO2 targets with DIONE and VECTO models, J. Krause et al. 27 Energy systems modelling: toolbox development for policy decision support, E. Delarue et al. 29 Macroeconomic effects of EU energy efficiency regulations on household dishwashers, washing machines and washer dryers, P. Rocchi et al. 31 A food safety impact modelling system, Bubbico A. et al. 32 The marine modelling framework of the EU Commission. A earth-system model for supporting policy decisions, Macias D. et al. 36 Complex system modelling and multi-criteria decision making An accounting framework for the biophysical profiling of the European agricultural systems, Cadillo Benalcazar J.J., Renner A., et al. 39 Integrative planning for a sustainable, prosperous future, Chan D., Urantowka W. et al 41 Decision support system for maritime spatial planning within blue growth and ecosystem-based management, Abramic A. et al. 42 Methodological reflections on the European Commission's 2013 use of CBA for air pollution policy, Åström S. 44 3 Parallel sessions 2 Model quality and transparency 1 Challenges and opportunities of integrated policy modelling, Hordijk L., Kancs d'A. 49 Modelling for EU policy support: impact assessments, Acs S. et al. 51 From modelling guidelines to model portfolio management, Arnold T. et al. 52 Post-hoc evaluation of model outcomes tailored to policy support, Thulke H. H. et al. 55 The MIDAS touch - Maintaining an overview of model use by the EC through the EC Modelling Inventory and Knowledge Management System MIDAS, Ostlaender N. et al. 56 Integrated assessment modelling Lessons from the use of the GAINS model to inform clean air policies in Europe, Amman M. 61 Science for an evolved Common Agricultural Policy — the Scenar 2030 experience, M'Barek R. et al. 62 Examples of Europe’s marine ecosystem modelling capability for societal benefit Heymans S. JJ. 64 Multi-Objective Local Environmental Simulator (MOLES): model specification, algorithm design and policy applications, Tikoudis I., Oueslati W. 65 Physiologically based kinetic modelling — a bridge between biological science and public health policy, Paini A., et al. 67 Qualitative and quantitative modelling Integrating qualitative scenarios with quantitative modelling: lessons learned from recent EC foresight projects, Ricci A. 71 Towards absolute measure of poverty in the European Union — A pilot study Cseres-Gergely Z., Menyhert B. 72 The Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI), Halkia M. et al. 74 Modelling stakeholders knowledge and requirements on soil multifunctionality across EU, Bampa F. et al. 75 The politics of models: socio-political discourses in the modelling of energy transition and transnational trade policies, Capari L., Udrea T. et al. 76 4 Parallel sessions 3 Scenarios, model linkages and data for policy 2 Combining micro and macro simulations to assess the distributional impacts of energy transitions. Evidences from the French national low carbon strategy, Ravigné E. et al. 81 Energy security assessment framework to support energy policy decisions, Augutis J. et al. 83 Decarbonising transports in Portugal up to 2050: possible pathways, Tente H et al. 85 Modelling the macroeconomic and employment impacts of future mobility disruption scenarios, Tamba M. 86 Global trends of methane emissions and their impacts on ozone concentrations, Van Dingenen R. et al. 88 Integrated modelling: the case of the food-water-energy-environmental NEXUS management under uncertainty and risks A strategic decision–support system for strategic robust adaptation to climate change and systemic risks in land use systems: Stochastic integrated assessment GLOBIOM model, Ermolieva T. 93 An integrated environmental-economic model for robust pollution control under uncertainty, Wildermeersch M. et al. 94 Policy impact on biofuel or electricity production from biomass in Europe, Leduc S. et al. 95 Robust food-energy-water-environmental security management: linking distributed sectorial and regional models, Ermoliev T. et al. 96 Modelling value chains in global trade Challenges of conducting policy impact analysis using PE models: the case of Brexit, Nti F., Jones K. 101 Shooting oneself in the foot? Trade war and global value chains, Bellora C., Fontagné L. 102 MAGNET — a team-based modular CGE approach for coherent cross-cutting policy assessments, Kuiper M. et al. 103 Environmentally conscious transportation and logistics modelling for agri-food supply chains, De A. et al. 105 Modelling fairness in FVCs: developing quantitative indicators, Gudbrandsdottir I. Y. et al. 109 5 Poster session 1 A global sensitivity analysis of smart grids project cost benefits analysis with correlated inputs, Vitiello S. et al. 115 A participatory process to design regional policy for rural development: the case of the Veneto Region, Trestini S. et al. 116 Defining the applicability of animal-free approaches for skin allergy testing of chemicals, Asturiol D. et al. 117 Employment effect of innovation, Kancs d'A., Siliverstovs B. 119 Forecasting the teaching workforce in Lithuania, Leiputė B et al. 121 Global governance challenges: a case for big modelling, Toth T., Theodoropoulos G. 123 Modelling European economy as an ecosystem of contracts for smart policy making Telesca L et al. 124 Modelling the social impact of open access knowledge repositories, Skulimowski A. M. J. 125 PIRAMID: a new methodology to build baselines for CGE models, Wojtowicz K. et al. 128 Plenary session 2 Assessing social impacts of policies: indicators and methods, Jacob K. 133 Parallel sessions 4 Complex system modelling & multi-criteria decision-making 2 Making sustainability models more robust: dealing with the complexity of the metabolic pattern of social-ecological systems, Giampietro M. 137 Supporting result-based schemes. The case of ex-post assessment of agri-environmental- climatic schemes, Bartolini F. et al. 139 Exploring the (non-)use and influence of models in Belgian climate policy-making: a multiple case study, Fransolet A. 140 Assessing the potential of machine learning algorithms for agent-based models from an innovation policy perspective, Müller M. et al. 142 Machine learning in the service of policy targeting: the case of public credit guarantees, de Blasio G. et al. 143 Engaging stakeholders and policy makers Complex modelling to achieve carbon neutrality in Portugal, Seixas J. 149 6 System dynamics modelling as strategic vision for transforming adult social care in Northern Ireland: from primary research to procurement, Wylie S., Martin J. 150 The use of models to support the design and implementation of the EU Cohesion Policy, Monfort P. 152 Measuring and explaining the EU's Effect on national climate performance Avrami L., Sprinz D. F. 154 The importance of modelling purpose for policy, Edmonds B. 155 Modelling support for EU policy design: the EU's Long Term Strategy for climate Developing a global context for regional 1.5°C scenarios, Keramidas K. et al. 159 Modelling carbon neutral energy systems, Zazias G. et al. 160 Costs and potentials for reducing non-CO2 gases, Höglund-Isaksson L. et al. 162 The land use sector as key to offset residual emissions by 2050, Frank S. et al. 164 Socio-economic aspects of EU decarbonisation, Weitzel M. et al. 166 Parallel sessions 5 Model quality and transparency 2 Map or compass? Improving model contribution to long-term climate strategy. Insights from 4 country studies, Lecocq F. et al.
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