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Canadian Banks – Commercial / Corporate Lending Slowing, RESL Accelerating

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Canadian Banks – Commercial / Corporate Lending Slowing, RESL Accelerating Canadian Banks – Commercial / corporate lending slowing, RESL accelerating... EQUITY RESEARCH | AUGUST 18, 2020 For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, please see page 42. Disseminated: August 18, 2020 21:20ET; Produced: August 18, 2020 21:20ET Canadian Banks – OSFI data update (June 2020) Canadian Banks – Commercial / corporate lending slowing, RESL accelerating RBC Dominion Securities Inc. RBC Elements predicts that Canada P&C loan growth could come in at 4.7% YoY in Q3/20 Darko Mihelic, CFA (vs. 5.0% YoY last quarter), modestly better than the 4.5% YoY growth currently assumed (Analyst) in our models. The largest variance between RBC Elements’ predictions and our forecasts is (416) 842-4128 at BMO and BNS. Elements predicts Canada P&C loan growth of 6.8% YoY for BMO (higher [email protected] than our forecast growth of 6.2% YoY) and 6.0% YoY for BNS (higher than our forecast growth of 5.5% YoY).E1 Sanly Li, CPA, CA (Senior Associate) In this note, we also provide updated trends on key loan and deposit figures using OSFI’s (416) 842-5638 balance sheet data for the month of June, which was released on August 18. In addition to [email protected] our tables of the latest figures and quarter-to-date trends, we provide graphs of longer- term trends by bank. A few interesting takeaways: All values in CAD, unless otherwise noted. 1. Business and government loan balances as of June declined compared to April. We Priced as of market close, August 18, 2020 ET. remind readers that this OSFI data effectively represents a month end balance sheet and specifically includes both commercial and corporate (wholesale) loans. Business and government loans for the large Canadian banks in aggregate declined -1.3% QTD in June compared to April, which could potentially reflect loan repayments and lower drawdowns in our view. Of the large Canadian banks, TD’s business and government loans declined the most by -6.6% QTD as of June. Only BMO and BNS had an increase in business and government loans of 3.0% QTD and 7.5% QTD as of June, respectively. On a YoY basis, business and government loan growth moderated to 7.0% YoY in June compared to 11.3% YoY in April. TD’s growth decelerated the most amongst the large banks to 4.1% YoY in June vs. 16.6% YoY in April. BMO and BNS were the only large banks that experienced higher YoY growth in June compared to April. BMO’s growth increased to 16.4% YoY in June vs. 15.3% YoY in April and BNS’ growth accelerated to 13.6% YoY in June vs. 7.9% YoY in April (Exhibit 27). 2. Unsecured personal loan balances continued to decline and real estate secured lending (RESL) growth modestly decelerated in June. Unsecured personal loans declined -8.9% YoY in June vs. -7.0% YoY in April for the large Canadian banks in aggregate, presumably in part driven by continued low consumer spending activity (Exhibit 19). Unsecured personal lending balances continued to decline the most at NA at -13.3% YoY in June vs. -13.1% YoY in April. BMO had the lowest decline amongst the large banks of -6.0% YoY in June vs. -4.2% YoY in April. RESL growth modestly declined to 5.6% YoY in June vs. 5.9% YoY in April for the large Canadian banks. Of the large Canadian banks, only CM had an uptick in RESL growth of 2.3% YoY in June vs. 1.6% YoY in April (Exhibit 11). 3. Demand and notice deposit growth remained strong for both consumers and businesses in June. Personal demand and notice deposits increased 17.3% YoY in June for the large Canadian banks compared to 15.2% YoY in April (Exhibit 43). BNS’ growth increased the most to 19.3% YoY in June vs. 14.4% YoY in April. NA had the smallest increase in growth, coming in at 21.5% YoY in June compared to 21.3% YoY in April. Business demand and notice deposit growth increased to 26.3% YoY in June for the large Canadian banks compared to 20.1% YoY in April (Exhibit 59). RY had the strongest acceleration in growth, coming in at 24.6% YoY in June vs. 15.7% YoY in April. BMO had the lowest uptick in growth, coming in at 30.2% YoY in June vs. 29.3% YoY in April. E Learn more about RBC Elements on page 41. August 18, 2020 2 Canadian Banks – OSFI data update (June 2020) Table of contents RBC Elements’ predictive modeling of Canada P&C loans ..................................................... 4 Q3/20E model outputs ............................................................................................................... 4 Q2/20 predictions and forecasts vs. actual results .................................................................... 4 Domestic loan growth trends as of June 2020 ...................................................................... 5 Total domestic loans .................................................................................................................. 5 Real estate secured lending (RESL) ............................................................................................ 9 Unsecured personal lending .................................................................................................... 13 Business and Government (Commercial and Wholesale) lending ........................................... 17 Domestic deposit growth trends as of June 2020 ............................................................... 21 Total domestic deposits ........................................................................................................... 21 Personal demand and notice deposits ..................................................................................... 25 Personal fixed-term deposits ................................................................................................... 29 Business demand and notice deposits ..................................................................................... 33 Business fixed-term deposits ................................................................................................... 37 In all jurisdictions where RBC conducts business we do not offer investment advice on Royal Bank. Certain regulations prohibit member firms from soliciting orders and offering investment advice or opinions on their own stock. References to Royal Bank are for informational purposes only and are not intended as a direct or implied recommendation for investing in Royal Bank and all related securities. August 18, 2020 3 Canadian Banks – OSFI data update (June 2020) RBC Elements’ predictive modeling of Canada P&C loans Q3/20E model outputs Based on OSFI balance sheet data as of June, RBC Elements’ predictive modeling suggests that Canada P&C loan growth decelerated to 4.7% YoY in Q3/20 (in aggregate, excl. RY) compared to 5.0% YoY last quarter. Their models suggest that loan growth ranges from 2.5% YoY at CM to 6.8% YoY at BMO. Overall this is modestly higher than our estimates as shown in Exhibit 1. Exhibit 1: RBC Elements’ predictive models suggest Canada P&C loan growth could come in at 4.7% YoY in Q3/20, modestly higher than our forecast of 4.5% YoY Canada P&C Avg. Loans: Q3/20E RBC Elements' Predictive Q2/20A Model Outputs RBCCM Estimates. Q3/20A YoY $BN Implied YoY % $BN Implied YoY % BMO 7.2% 255.3 6.8% 253.9 6.2% BNS 6.7% 359.5 6.0% 357.9 5.5% CM 2.3% 330.0 2.5% 329.1 2.2% NA 4.6% 117.9 4.6% 117.7 4.5% TD 4.6% 444.8 4.2% 445.4 4.3% Total 5.0% 1,507.5 4.7% 1,504.0 4.5% Source: RBC Capital Markets estimates, Company reports Q2/20 predictions and forecasts vs. actual results We summarize below our previously published RBC Elements predictions and RBCCM estimates vs. Q2/20 actual results. In aggregate, the large Canadian banks under our coverage generated loan growth of 5.0% YoY in Q2/20, modestly lower than RBC Elements’ prediction of 5.2% YoY and our 5.1% YoY forecast. The largest variance between RBC Elements’ predictions and actual results was at NA, where YoY loan growth came in ~-70 bps softer than predicted. The largest variance between our forecast figures and actual results was at BMO, where YoY loan growth came in ~70 bps stronger than our forecast (Exhibit 2). For more on our loan balance predictive modeling methodology, see our note linked here. Exhibit 2: Summary of RBC Elements’ predictions and RBCCM estimates vs. Q2/20 actual results Canada P&C Avg. Loans: Q2/20E RBC Elements' Predictive Q1/20A Model Outputs RBCCM Estimates. Q2/20A YoY $BN Implied YoY % $BN Implied YoY % $BN YoY % BMO 7.2% 250.8 6.9% 249.9 6.5% 251.4 7.2% BNS 6.0% 356.0 6.9% 353.7 6.3% 355.2 6.7% CM 1.7% 328.0 2.5% 328.4 2.7% 327.3 2.3% NA 4.4% 117.3 5.3% 116.6 4.6% 116.5 4.6% TD 4.4% 441.2 4.9% 442.9 5.3% 439.9 4.6% Total 4.6% 1,493.3 5.2% 1,491.5 5.1% 1,490.3 5.0% Source: RBC Capital Markets estimates, RBC Elements, Company reports August 18, 2020 4 Canadian Banks – OSFI data update (June 2020) Appendix: Charts and graphs of loans and deposits by bank Domestic loan growth trends as of June 2020 Total domestic loans Exhibit 3: Total domestic loan growth summary table Last Qtr. 12M Beyond +/- 1 Std. Dev. Of 30-Jun-20 30-Apr-20 Moving Avg. 12M Moving Avg. CAGR Domestic Currency Balance ($MM) $ YoY ($MM) % YoY % YoY % YoY Yes/No % 3-YR 5-YR 7-YR Total Loans BMO 260,891 18,220 7.5% 7.6% 6.9% No n/a 4.7% 5.3% 5.1% BNS 376,488 20,645 5.8% 5.8% 7.7% Yes, Below -0.6% 5.6% 5.3% 4.7% CM 318,547 6,097 2.0% 3.0% 2.5% No n/a 3.0% 5.9% 5.5% NA 130,001 5,052 4.0% 6.5% 5.4% Yes, Below -0.6% 4.8% 6.0% 6.2% RY 482,196 22,072 4.8% 5.7% 6.3% Yes, Below -0.8% 5.2% 4.8% 4.6% TD 452,937 15,492 3.5% 6.2% 5.7% Yes, Below -1.3% 4.8% 5.2% 5.1% Total Big 6 Banks 2,021,061 87,578 4.5% 5.7% 5.8% Yes, Below -0.6% 4.7% 5.3% 5.0% CWB
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