LA26 PROGRESS REPORT A) Abstract
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LA26 PROGRESS REPORT A) Abstract The Project was initiated analyzing the actual climate variability impact on the RP in order to understand the forcings acting in the RP water level, and to calibrate modeling tools. It was found a southward shift of the southwestern border of the South Atlantic high during 1950/2000 and a consequent increment of the eastern wind component. This is consistent with the observed annual and seasonal water level trend and with model sensitivity to the wind field. In addition, statistics of the most important patterns of the low-level atmospheric circulation associated to floods in the RP coast indicate a trend toward more frequent and intense synoptic systems. A hydrodynamic model of the RP was developed and it is being calibrated and validated. A high- resolution regional model of the atmosphere was adapted for its use in the RP region. Climate features, relevant to the RP dynamics (wind and precipitation fields), are well simulated by some General Circulation Models. Thus, an ensemble of climate scenarios for the next hundred years in the RP region is being developed. It was started a communicative process with relevant stakeholders aiming to its involvement throughout the Project development. PROGRESS REPORT B) Report on the Tasks Scheduled to begin in the January-July 2002 period Task numbers according to the working plan. In brackets the end date of the working plan. We become aware for the need of two additional tasks. One of them, task 0, was necessary to assess the need and detail of the programmed tasks 2, 13 and 20. Task 0 is a sensitivity analysis of the water level in the Río de la Plata to discharges from tributaries and wind. The other additional task was originally planned for June 2003 as task 31, but it was initiated earlier since it was necessary for implementing task 24 0. Sensitivity analysis of the water level of the Rio de la Plata to the discharge from tributaries and wind The purpose of this task was to assess how important are these aspects in order to evaluate the effort that should be devoted to the understanding of present and future variability and change of the wind field over the Rio de la Plata (RP) and the neighboring ocean. Similarly, with the variability and change of the precipitation over the basin of the RP. Since these are very complicated issues that will hopefully be completed as part of the objectives of the Project, a numerical model of the RP was used as an approximate tool. This is the RIO DE LA PLATA 2000 model (Jaime & Menéndez 1999), a two- dimensional hydrodynamic model based on software HIDROBID II (Menéndez 1990). The domain of the model extends from the river head down to its mouth, considered to be the imaginary line that links San Clemente del Tuyú, in Argentina, with Punta del Este, in Uruguay. The model is already calibrated and validated (Jaime & Menéndez 1999) Runs were undertaken for a period of 5 days. The base run, coded as B0, was performed considering a situation of absence of winds (purely astronomical tide) and discharges of the tributaries (Paraná Guazú, Paraná de las Palmas and Uruguay Rivers) equal to their annual mean. The following stations were taken for control: San Fernando, Martín García, Buenos Aires, Colonia, La Plata and Montevideo Results and references are summarized in Annex B1. In spite of the limitations of the model, it is possible to conclude, in general terms, that strong changes in the discharge from the tributaries are going to produce changes of the order of 10 to 20 cm in the so-called interior of the RP. This is comparable with an expected mean sea-level rise of about 60 cm. in certain scenarios, which will probably propagate almost entirely into the RP. Regarding the winds, the model underestimated the response in water level because it runs only in the limited area of the RP itself. This aspect is being solved in the new version of the model, task 8. In spite of this and according to experiments described in Annex B1, an increase of 10 to 20 Km/h in the SE winds will produce a change of the order of 10 cm, at least. 1.Compilation of precipitation data of the Rio de la Plata basin Point 2 of the Joint Document (February 2002) This activity was completed, and data from Argentina were sent to the Project LA 32 2.Surface wind estimates download from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Climatological fields (March 2002) 1 The seasonal mean fields of the winds and geopotential at 1000 hPa were calculated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The region includes the Río de la Plata (RP), and it can be seen in the figures of Annex B2. 2.1 The circulation over the RP is under the influence of the southwestern border of the South Atlantic high (SAH). This circulation shifts southward from winter to summer and northward from summer to winter. This implies a stronger westward component in summer than in winter (Fig. 1 of Annex B2). As a consequence, the mean high of the water levels should be greater in summer than in winter in the Argentine coast of the RP estuary This was confirmed by the analysis carried on as part of task 3 2.2 There was a shift southward in the circulation associated to the southwestern border of the SAH. It was more evident in summer, important in the transition seasons, and almost negligible in winter, and as a result of the westward component of the wind over the RP. This is consistent with results found under task 3 (See Figs. 2 and 3 of Annex B2) 2.3 Principal component analysis (PCA) performed on the seasonal geopotential fields confirms the southward shift of the mean seasonal circulation. There was a significant increment of the variance explained by the second mode, more associated to the summer circulation and the westward component of the wind over the RP from the 1950/60 decade to the 1990/00 one. At the same time, there was a significant reduction of the first mode, more associated to the winter circulation during the same period. The third mode, potentially associated to floods in the Argentine coast, also increased during this period (See Fig. 4 of Annex B2) 3. Compilation of cartography, satellite images, air photography and urban information (April 2002) Information gathered: The graphic information corresponds to the following departments in the Buenos Aires Province San Nicolás, Ramallo, San Pedro, Baradero, Zárate, Campana, Tigre, San Fernando, San Isidro, Vicente López, Avellaneda, Quilmes, Berazategui, Ensenada and Berisso, and the Federal District: - Topographic Charts of the Geographic Institute Scale: 1:50.000, 22 charts. Scale: 1:100.000, 5 charts. Scale: 1:250.000, 4 charts. Scale: 1:500.000, 3 charts. - Geodesy Map- Province of Buenos Aires: Metropolitan area, 1993; scale: 1:100.000. - Satellite Images LANDSAT 5 TM. 226/ 083, Date: 30/03/1997 226/ 083, Date: 01/03/1998 225/ 084, Date: 15/09/1997 - Aerial Photos from the Argentine Hydrographic Service Flight Rosario- Punta Piedras; track: n° 3; Photos: 069 -070-071–072; scale: 1:40.000; Date: June 1991, lowlands of the Department of Tigre. 2 4. Analysis of the tide dynamics in the Rio de la Plata (April 2002) The features of the Tides on the Atlantic coast of Argentina and Uruguay and its propagation in the RP were reviewed in a short course. A short resume of the course follows: Classification of waves in the Sea according to their period Tide recording. Mean sea level Storm waves Astronomic waves Different methods for measuring tides Dynamic of tides Tide regime Statistical study of tides in the RP The course was lectured by Ing. D' Onofrio and the participants were Dr. V. Barros, Dr. A. Menendez, Dra. M. Doyle, Dra. M. González, Dr. G. Escobar, Ing. M. Re, Lic. M. Fiore, Dr, J Codignotto , Dr. R. Kokot and D. Rios As it was already found in previous studies, the mean level of the Buenos Aires port presented a positive trend during the last century. The new fact is that this trend was present in all seasons, but with consistently more high in summer and less in winter throughout the twentieth century (See item 3 of Annex B4). It was also prepared tide data for the Samborombón bay for further geological analysis of its coast (see item 6 of Annex B3). 5. Procurement of social data and cartographic information. Analysis of satellites images (May 2002) Socioeconomic information: In addition to the information used in the elaboration of the vulnerability index for the Buenos Aires fluvial littoral, all the information of public access, -by departments and for the Federal District, from the 1991 CNPyV (National Census of population and housing) and also the preliminary results from 2001 Census was compiled. These censuses are the only source for quantifying and analyzing the complex changes experienced by the Argentine population in its socioeconomic structure and its spatial distribution in the course of the last decade. The areas selected, which correspond to study cases are La Boca neighborhood in the Federal District and Avellaneda Department in the Greater Buenos Aires as examples of situations in big cities (see the following table), and the General Lavalle Department, as an example of rural environments and tourist services. Urban Study Cases: Preliminary Results From The 2001 Census CNPyV 2001 DISTRITO IV (LA PARTIDO DE Preliminary Results BOCA) AVELLANEDA Total population (inhabitants) 84.144 344.199 Area (Km2) 10.5 55 Density (inhabitants/ Km2) 8.013,7 5993.4 Number of households 30.614 101.578 Population in households 83.273 327.910 Collective institutions 107 89 Population in collective inst.