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European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2015 About Ecfr EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY SCORECARD 2015 ABOUT ECFR The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is the first pan-European think-tank. Launched in October 2007, its objective is to conduct research and promote informed debate across Europe on the development of coherent, effective and values-based European foreign policy. ECFR has developed a strategy with three distinctive elements that define its activities: • A pan-European Council. ECFR has brought together a distinguished Council of over two hundred Members – politicians, decision makers, thinkers and business leaders from the EU’s member states and candidate countries – which meets once a year as a full body. Through geographical and thematic task forces, members provide ECFR staff with advice and feedback on policy ideas and contribute to ECFR’s activities within their own countries. The Council is chaired by Martti Ahtisaari and Mabel van Oranje. • A physical presence in the main EU member states. ECFR, uniquely among European think-tanks, has offices in Berlin, London, Madrid, Paris, Rome, Sofia and Warsaw. Our offices are platforms for research, debate, advocacy and communications. • A distinctive research and policy development process. ECFR has brought together a team of distinguished researchers and practitioners from all over Europe to advance its objectives through innovative projects with a pan-European focus. ECFR’s activities include primary research, publication of policy reports, private meetings and public debates, ‘friends of ECFR’ gatherings in EU capitals and outreach to strategic media outlets. ECFR is a registered charity funded by the Open Society Foundations and other generous foundations, individuals and corporate entities. These donors allow us to publish our ideas and advocate for a values- based EU foreign policy. ECFR works in partnership with other think tanks and organisations but does not make grants to individuals or institutions. www.ecfr.eu EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY SCORECARD 2015 Copyright of this publication is held by the European Council on Foreign Relations. You may not copy, reproduce, republish or circulate in any way the content from this publication except for your own personal and non-commercial use. Any other use requires the prior written permission of the European Council on Foreign Relations. © ECFR January 2015 Published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) 35 Old Queen Street London SW1H 9JA [email protected] ISBN: 978-1-910118-25-2 2 EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY SCORECARD 2015 EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY SCORECARD 2015 STEERING GROUP Vaira Vike-Freiberga (co-chair), Robert Cooper (co-chair), Lluís Bassets, Franziska Brantner, Heather Grabbe, Jean-Marie Guéhenno, Jytte Gutland, István Gyamarti , Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, Wolfgang Ischinger, Gerald Knaus, Nils Muiznieks, Kalypso Nicolaïdis, Christine Ockrent, Albert Rohan, Nicolò Russo Perez, Marietje Schaake, Klaus Scharioth, Aleksander Smolar, Paweł Swieboda, Teija Tiilikainen, Nathalie Tocci, Antonio Vitorino ECFR DIRECTOR Mark Leonard ECFR RESEARCH TEAM Susi Dennison (project leader) Rachel Tausendfreund (project leader/editor) Dina Pardijs (data management coordinator) Kadri Liik, Sophia Pugsley (Russia), Thomas Wright (United States), Chi Kong Chyong, Nigar Goksel, Francisco de Borja Lasheras, Vessela Tcherneva (Wider Europe), Adam Baron, Susi Dennison, Julien Barnes-Dacey, Anthony Dworkin, Ellie Geranmayeh, Andrew Hammond, Daniel Levy, Mattia Toaldo, Nick Witney (Middle East and North Africa), François Godement, Agatha Kratz, Angela Stanzel (China), Richard Gowan (Multilateral Issues and Crisis Management) RESEARCHERS IN MEMBER STATES Arnold Kammel (Austria), Tim Haesebrouck (Belgium), Marin Lessenski (Bulgaria), Hüseyin Silman (Cyprus), Luka Oreskovic (Croatia and Romania), Vladimír Bartovic (Czech Republic), Christine Nissen (Denmark), Andres Kasekamp (Estonia), Teemu Rantanen (Finland), Caroline Maillard (France), Jonas Kassow (Germany), George Tzogopoulos (Greece), Zsuzsanna Végh (Hungary), Ben Tonra (Ireland), Antonietta Cornacchia (Italy), Diana Potjomkina (Latvia), Laurynas Jonavicius (Lithuania), Astrid Spreitzer (Luxembourg) Daniel Mainwaring (Malta), Sanne Raap (Netherlands), Adam Balcer (Poland), Lívia Franco (Portugal), Teodor Gyelník (Slovakia), Sabina Lange (Slovenia), Álvaro Imbernón (Spain), Jan Joel Andersson (Sweden), Catarina Tully (United Kingdom). EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY SCORECARD 2015 3 Acknowledgements Above all, the authors would like to thank the Steering Group for their input and advice throughout the process. Special thanks goes to the chairs, Vaira Vike-Freiberga and Robert Cooper, for their enthusiasm and wisdom in guiding this project. Several ECFR staff members contributed to the Scorecard project by giving advice and freeing up time for the Scorecard team. Olaf Boehnke, Piotr Buras, Thomas König, Gustav Gressel, Josef Janning, José Ignacio Torreblanca, and Nick Witney commented on parts of the text. Hans Kundnani was especially hands-on with his editorial advice. Lorenzo Marini designed the excellent new website to go with the Scorecard. Proofreading and fact-checking from Katharina Botel, Justine Doody, and Evanna Folkenfolk was invaluable. Zsófia Tari provided extra research assistance, and Jan Lasocki gave invaluable help with organisation and advocacy. David Carroll’s design has been of constant quality throughout the years. Even though producing this year’s Scorecard was a collective effort, any mistakes in the text remain the responsibility of the authors. 4 EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY SCORECARD 2015 Contents Foreword 6 Preface 7 Introduction 8 Chapter 1: Russia 19 Chapter 2: United States 33 Chapter 3: Wider Europe 48 Chapter 4: Middle East and North Africa 64 Chapter 5: Asia and China 79 Chapter 6: Multilateral Issues and Crisis Management 92 Scores and Grades 109 (complete tables) Classification of Member States 114 (complete tables) Abbreviations 120 About the authors 122 EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY SCORECARD 2015 5 Foreword The Compagnia di San Paolo is one of the largest independent foundations in Europe and one of the main private funders of research in the fields of EU affairs and international relations. Over the past few years, the Compagnia has progressively consolidated its profile in these fields, signing strategic partnership agreements with institutions such as the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the Istituto Affari Internazionali. Our overall goal is to foster a truly European debate on the main issues that the EU faces and to encourage the emergence of a European political space. It is against this background and as part of the Compagnia’s commitment to support research on the European integration process that we continued the cooperation with the European Council on Foreign Relations on the fifth edition of the European Foreign Policy Scorecard. We highly appreciate this cooperation with ECFR and we sincerely hope that this project will intensify the dialogue among various European stakeholders – both institutional and from civil society – with the goal of strengthening our understanding of Europe’s role as a global player. Piero Gastaldo Secretary General Compagnia di San Paolo 6 EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY SCORECARD 2015 Preface This is the fifth edition of the European Foreign Policy Scorecard, a flagship publication for ECFR that evaluates the European Union’s foreign policy performance over the past year. This is the final year of the first post-Lisbon set- up, and our scores track progress over the whole period. As in previous years, we have adjusted some components to reflect the changing situation; continuity is maintained by retaining the same sub-issues in each chapter. We continue to assess the performance of EU actors as a collective. Rather than giving an exhaustive list of all EU policies, we have focused our attention on policies on which there were specific decision points in 2015. European policies for each component are assigned scores for “unity” and “resources” (out of five) and “outcome” (out of ten). The sum of these scores translates into a letter grade for each of the 65 components. Our now-familiar system of identifying member states as “leaders”, “supporters”, or “slackers” has again produced interesting results. There is an unavoidable subjective element in these judgments but we have explained our reasoning in each case in the relevant components. A full description of the methodology of the Scorecard can be found on ECFR’s website at http://www.ecfr.eu/scorecard. Five years’ experience is a good basis on which to assess our own performance and to consider whether we can do better. We plan, therefore, to review our work on the Scorecard in the first half of 2015. Your views on the Scorecard – whether this year’s or over the whole period – would be welcome and useful to us. We look forward to hearing from you. Vaira Vike-Freiberga and Robert Cooper January 2015 EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY SCORECARD 2015 7 Introduction In 2014 Europe found itself surrounded by crises. To the east, Russia annexed Crimea and war broke out in eastern Ukraine. The 2013 landmark agreement between Kosovo and Serbia finished 2014 on much less firm ground, with a worsening of the political and economic situation in both countries and in neighbouring Bosnia. To the south, the self-proclaimed Islamic State made stunning advances across Syria and northern Iraq. Civil war continued in Syria, generating a refugee crisis on a horrifying scale, and began in Libya. And the authoritarian regime in Egypt continued
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