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Allen and Webb Close, Kaine Would Be Formidable Replacement

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Allen and Webb Close, Kaine Would Be Formidable Replacement FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 17, 2010 INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen) QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312 Allen and Webb close, Kaine would be formidable replacement Raleigh, N.C. – If he decides to run for re-election, Virginia Senator Jim Webb would start out in decent shape in a rematch with George Allen, and would be safer against two other potential Republican nominees. If Webb decides to hang up his hat after a single term, current DNC chairman and former Governor Tim Kaine would step in and do just as well. Recently defeated Congressman Tom Perriello, however, would not. In 2006, Webb defeated Allen by about 0.3% in a surprise upset after being dragged into the race. But Webb would start off the 2012 sequel with a wider 49-45 lead. He would also top Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling, 49-38, and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, 49-39. Should Webb step aside, Kaine would begin with a 50-44 edge over Allen, 48-41 over Bolling, and 50-39 over Cuccinelli. Perriello would trail Allen, 42-47, and Bolling, 41- 42, and he would only lead Cuccinelli, 44-41. The difference, in a state where they comprise almost a third of voters, is independents. Webb and Kaine lead all three Republicans by four to 13 points with unaffiliated voters, but Perriello trails by two to 15. Webb and Kaine also hold their base better and attract more Republican support. Webb does pretty well on the job approval front in this environment, at 43-37. Allen breaks even with his favorability rating, at 40-41, but Perriello is the least liked and second least known of the six candidates, at 22-32. Bolling does a little better than Cuccinelli in the horseraces despite being far less known because Cuccinelli is more disliked by independents, at 28-42 to Bolling’s 20-22. Bolling and Perriello are known to only 45% and 54% of voters, respectively, so they could be strong contenders if they raise their profiles. “With Barack Obama looking good to start out the 2012 cycle in Virginia, and now Jim Webb and Tim Kaine joining him, the Republican victories in 2009 and 2010 could be more a blip than 2006 and 2008 were for Democrats,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. PPP surveyed 551 Virginia voters from November 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify. Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] Virginia Survey Results Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bob Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion McDonnell’s job performance? of Tom Perriello? Approve .......................................................... 44% Favorable .............. 22% Not sure ................ 46% Disapprove...................................................... 36% Unfavorable........... 32% Not sure .......................................................... 20% Q9 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Democrat Jim Webb and Republican George Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Allen, who would you vote for? Warner’s job performance? Jim Webb........................................................ 49% Approve .......................................................... 54% George Allen................................................... 45% Disapprove...................................................... 32% Undecided....................................................... 6% Not sure .......................................................... 14% Q10 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim Democrat Jim Webb and Republican Bill Webb's job performance? Bolling, who would you vote for? Approve .......................................................... 43% Jim Webb........................................................ 49% Disapprove...................................................... 37% Bill Bolling ....................................................... 38% Not sure .......................................................... 20% Undecided....................................................... 12% Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q11 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were of George Allen? Democrat Jim Webb and Republican Ken Favorable .............. 40% Not sure ................ 19% Cuccinelli, who would you vote for? Unfavorable........... 41% Jim Webb........................................................ 49% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Ken Cuccinelli ................................................. 39% of Bill Bolling? Undecided....................................................... 11% 20% 55% Favorable .............. Not sure ................ Q12 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Unfavorable........... 25% Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Allen, who would you vote for? of Ken Cuccinelli? Tim Kaine........................................................ 50% Favorable .............. 31% Not sure ................ 29% George Allen................................................... 44% Unfavorable........... 39% Undecided....................................................... 6% Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tim Kaine? Favorable .............. 43% Not sure ................ 17% Unfavorable........... 40% November 10-13, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 551 Virginia voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q13 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Q18 Who did you vote for President in 2008? Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Bill 44% Bolling, who would you vote for? John McCain................................................... Barack Obama................................................ 49% Tim Kaine........................................................ 48% Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7% Bill Bolling ....................................................... 41% Q19 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate, Undecided....................................................... 11% press 2. If a conservative, press 3. Q14 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were 19% Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Ken Liberal............................................................. Cuccinelli, who would you vote for? Moderate......................................................... 44% Tim Kaine........................................................ 50% Conservative................................................... 37% Ken Cuccinelli ................................................. 40% Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Undecided....................................................... 11% Woman ........................................................... 55% Q15 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Man................................................................. 45% Democrat Tom Perriello and Republican Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, George Allen, who would you vote for? press 2. If you are an independent or identify Tom Perriello................................................... 42% with another party, press 3. George Allen................................................... 47% Democrat ........................................................ 36% Undecided....................................................... 12% Republican...................................................... 35% Q16 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Independent/Other.......................................... 30% Democrat Tom Perriello and Republican Bill Q22 If you are white, press 1. If African-American, Bolling, who would you vote for? press 2. If other, press 3. 41% Tom Perriello................................................... White .............................................................. 78% 42% Bill Bolling ....................................................... African-American ............................................ 18% 18% Undecided....................................................... Other............................................................... 4% Q17 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to Democrat Tom Perriello and Republican Ken 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are Cuccinelli, who would you vote for? older than 65, press 4. 44% Tom Perriello................................................... 18 to 29........................................................... 8% 41% Ken Cuccinelli ................................................. 30 to 45........................................................... 30% 15% Undecided....................................................... 46 to 65........................................................... 45% Older than 65 .................................................. 18% November 10-13, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 551 Virginia voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs 2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember McDonnell Approval Warner Approval Approve 44% 72% 19% 48% Approve 54% 27% 82% 27% Dis appr
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