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Opentable Strategic Discussions April 2009

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Opentable Strategic Discussions April 2009 OpenTable Strategic Discussions April 2009 Nicole Campbell Timothy DeGrange Jack Grigoryan Henry Wang Executive Summary OpenTable’s unique SaaS model in conjunction with its customer base and clientele has the potential for immense additional upside in the largely untapped online reservations market 1 OpenTable has a distinct advantage over U.S. competitors due to its deployment of proprietary in restaurant reservation taking technology (Electronic Reservation Book) in addition to its developed network of consumer users. 2 OpenTable currently captures 6% of an estimated 600 million reservations made in the U.S. annually and has the potential to increase to as much as 50%, in line with industries where online reservation usage has mature. 3 Internationally, the UK, Germany and Japan have been slated for international expansion and OpenTable has the opportunity to expand more aggressively into these markets given their large aggregate GDP relative to the U.S. The U.S. equity markets are in recovery in light of QE announcement by the Federal Reserve. Given OpenTable’s dominance in the online reservations market, it is well positioned for an IPO 1 Credit is still relatively expensive and the general decrease in private placement and debt financed deals would come at a discount to valuations sought in the equity markets. OpenTable also has the market share and strength to grow organically. 2 Given improving equity market conditions in the U.S., OpenTable’s inherent market share in the U.S. , competitive barrier and an opportunity to capture greater revenues per restaurant would be attractive to investors. 3 The proceeds of the IPO can be utilized to finance OpenTable’s growth both domestically or abroad through organic growth with its current offering and or acquisitions to diversify its offerings. 4 IPO Pricing etc. 1 Industry & Company Overview Restaurant Opportunities in North America OpenTable’s Value Proposition The number of reservation taking restaurants in North America Large amount current reservations taken by restaurant staff over the currently is estimated at 30,000. phone in advance. It is inconvenient in for the customer to make reservations and to Restaurant reservation data suggests that there are approximately cancel at the last minute, decreasing efficient usage of restaurant 600mn total annual reservations made in North America. seats. Online reservations for restaurants is still a relatively new phenomena Restaurants risk losing customers looking to make reservation during in the North American market and has immense upsides to mature to a non-business hours. similar level of adoption as in the online air travel industry. OpenTable automates the reservation process for consumers through its proprietary technology. Electronic Reservation Book is a proprietary computer system that UK, Germany & Japan allows restaurants to manage online, phone and in-person reservations while providing live analytics on restaurant reservations. The UK, Germany and Japan represent industrialized economies with an Restaurant customers are able to book online and see latest updates established base of restaurants and a viable market for internet based on availability and can also quickly cancel to free up reservations for reservations. other guests. Based on GDP scaling, there is an opportunity of approximately 20,000 reservation taking restaurants suitable for internet reservation. OpenTable’s has an established client and consumer base, with the ability to place 4,000 diners per restaurant and offer an immensely high Based on GDP scaling, there is an opportunity of approximately 20,000 ROI to its restaurant clients. reservation taking restaurants suitable for internet reservation. OpenTable North American Market Share Restaurant Penetration Reservation Penetration Reservation Taking Geographic Region GDP ($Bn) Total Restaurants Est. OpenTable Other OpenTable Traditional & Other North America 15,276 1,279,000 30,000 US 13,844 945,000 Canada 1,432 84,000 6% Mexico 250,000 32% International 10,479 719,000 20,000 Germany 3,322 184,000 68% Japan 4,384 400,000 94% UK 2,773 135,000 Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Equity Research Report 2 OpenTable Growth Strategy Projected Revenues by Source Domestic Growth Fueled by Modernization of Reservation Systems ($mm) $140 The online restaurant reservation market still has ample room for growth. $120 Similar reservation models in different industries such as airlines $100 command over 50% of reservation share. OpenTable only controls an estimated 6% of reservations, despite $80 partnering with an estimated 30% of restaurants. $60 As OpenTable begins to seat more diners in restaurants, it will be able to drive a larger portion of its revenue from recurring patrons seated. $40 We believe that the diners seated will expand from 27 million to 55 $20 million as OpenTable improves its value proposition to customers by offering an increasing number of restaurants and rewards programs. $0 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E The natural shift in revenue mix to more subscription revenue will produce proportionately higher cash flows as most expenses are fixed Subscription Revenue Reservation Revenue Installation & Other Revenue and relating to the deployment of the OpenTable reservation systems. Projected Diners and Restaurants by Region ($mm) ($k) International Growth Driven by Restaurant Expansion $90 $18 $80 $16 We believe the international division will have enough restaurant $70 $14 penetration to break even by 2013. $60 $12 OpenTable partnerships will expand to 17% of international $50 $10 restaurant market share. Restaurants/employee in the international division will increase to $40 $8 approximately 5 as the restaurant user base expands and the $30 $6 international team becomes more experienced. $20 $4 International growth will be driven by the increasing restaurant base $10 $2 from approximately 1,000 to 3,000. $0 $0 This increased restaurant base will boost diners both through the 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E increase in volume as a direct result of adding the new restaurant, as well as through an increase in diners per restaurant as diners take Domestic Diners Int'l Diners greater advantage of the OpenTable convenience Domestic Restaurants Int'l Restaurants Because of the limited free cash flow as a result of the capital expenditures required in order to grow the international division, growth should be funded through an equity offering 3 IPO for OpenTable Firm Valuation & IPO Pricing Valuation Range Trading Day June 30th DCF NPV = 342 mm Trading Company OpenTable Inc. Public Comps DCF Market Value 342 NPV Range: of Equity (mm) 315 - 501 mm Less: Preferred Equity 21 Public Comps M&A Comps Common Stock 321 NPV Range 152 - 401 mm Stocks Issued to Public 64 M&A Comps % Public Offered 20% # of Shares Issued 4,000,000 Enterprise Value - 200 400 600 Price pe share 16 342 mm USD IPO price per share 16 Millions IPO Value 64 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E Value Free Cash Flow NPV of FCF 61,492,213 EBITDA 18,930,245 24,171,204 31,041,082 36,967,447 50,233,564 NPV of TV 280,577,755 NPV 342,069,968 Less: Tax Payable on EBIT 2,854,981 4,054,688 5,611,758 6,604,162 9,671,388 Less: Change in Working Capital 5,643,235 3,186,007 4,060,107 4,822,868 7,029,375 Enterprise Value 342,069,968 Plus: Decrease in CapEx (3,633,753) (4,161,259) (4,027,456) (5,911,848) (5,430,383) Less: Debt - Free Cash Flow 6,798,276 12,769,250 17,341,762 19,628,569 28,102,417 Equity Value 342,069,968 4 recovery from their March lows, however recovery theirhowever Marchfrom lows, Board the Across Recovery over increased thefortnight. past have March andsteadily lows their for growth outlook. sign positive a April, improved in sales retail U.S. easing package.quantitative Reserve Federal has a promised $1tn Marchrecovery the early pricingfrom as Rebound Market and Easing Quantitative Overview Market Equity Easing. the announcementby Quantitative of set forth anticipatedfor anrally positions hitbottom. a have indicates thatETF prices the equitymarkets . andconstructionRecovery REIT of market year. of last Crisis Financial theREITs, sectors hitand hardest theby extends also torally construction the ETFs Investors to scurrying are enter Investors long Sector indicates anoversold rallywide Technology haveseen stocks strong a three off All majorhavelifted indices Despite concerns economic of weakness, U.S. equitymarkets seen have a Tech, Financial Financial Tech, Construction Services & ETF Performance NASDAQ, S&P500 DJIA, Price - - - - - - 10% 20% 30% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 Jan-07 Jan-07 Powershares Powershares Tech ETF Feb-07 of 2007 relative tostart the value in midNASDAQ March,S&P andSince theDJIA, 500 all seenhave recovery Feb-07 Mar-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 Apr-07 May-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 theequity formarkets witnessedhinting have bottoma recoverybeenmay havea thatMarch being Despite hit the services hardest, andfinancial constructionETFs Jul-07 Aug-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Sep-07 Powershares Powershares Financial Services ETF Oct-07 Oct-07 S&P Nov-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Jan-08 NASDAQ Feb-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 Apr-08 May-08 May-08 DJIA Jun-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Aug-08 SPDR Construction ETF Sep-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Source: Oct-08 Nov-08 Nov-08 FactSet Dec-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Systems Research Jan-09 Feb-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Mar-09 5 Apr-09 Apr-09 liquidity and debt covenants. and liquidity withoutoperate being constrained by the pre above the from Nov. 2008 theypeak, far are still Investment credits Grade declinedhave Overview US Debt Markets beginning of 2009. beginningof Investment the creditGrade markets the at accessing wouldhave Table Open difficulty during credit markets the credit crisis.
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