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Country & Sector Risks COFACE HANDBOOK COUNTRY & SECTOR RISKS ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS FOR 160 COUNTRIES AND 13 SECTORS2 018 The information contained in this handbook is updated regularly at www.coface.com COFACE COUNTRY & SECTOR RISKS HANDBOOK 2018 ©FotoliaComp - Shutterstock - Westend61s - DCOM (January 037 2018) Photos: Didier Cocatrix - ©GettyImages - Robin MacDougall - Peter Mukherjee - Image Source - COFACE HANDBOOK COUNTRY & SECTOR RISKS ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS FOR 160 COUNTRIES AND 13 SECTORS2 018 This handbook is intended for: • Corporate executives with decisions to make in terms of export, project launches, or investment in high risk countries. • Managers of risk or international operations in banking, multilateral financial institutions, and insurance or reinsurance companies (acting in a private capacity or on behalf of government). • Government managers concerned with country and sector risks. • Consultants and lawyers specialized in international business. • Researchers, academics, and students interested in country and sector risks. COFACE Country & Sector Risks Handbook 2018 01 With contributions from Contents • Coface Economic Research Department: p.04 FOREWORD Khalid Ait-Yahia, Carlos Casanova, Bruno De Moura Fernandes, By Xavier Durand, François Fenech, Dominique Fruchter, Seltem Iyigun, CEO of Coface Mario Jung, Patricia Krause, Melina London, Julien Marcilly, Ruben Nizard, Sarah N’Sondé, Guillaume Rippe-Lascout, p.06 COFACE GLOBAL Elliot Shekell, Grzegorz Sielewicz, Sofia Tozy, Ali Trifaia, ASSESSMENTS and Pauline Weil. Assessments available to all international trade operators • Coface Information Department • Coface Communications Department p.08 HOW TO USE THE HANDBOOK Coface cannot be held in any way responsible for opinions A guide for using the expressed by those who have contributed to the preparation 160 country assessments of this Handbook. p.10 COFACE COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP A geographic overview of the country assessments p.12 COFACE COUNTRY ASSESSMENTS Country assessment changes of the main economies p.15 SECTORS Coface’s sector risk assessments p.31 COUNTRIES Economic assessment and 2018 outlook for 160 countries p.239 GLOSSARY 02 COFACE Country & Sector Risks Handbook 2018 COFACE Country & Sector Risks Handbook 2018 03 FOREWORD WILL GLOBAL Businesses are likely to experience greater GROWTH REACH supply constraints ITS CLIMAX in 2018. IN 2018? XAVIER DURAND CEO of Coface 2017 saw an accumulation of to maintain corporate margins at a relatively high In other words, the Trump Administration’s risk - especially in the United States - and, above all, pleasant economic surprises. Only level, and strong household consumption. In this stimulus package will partly benefit foreign on the Chinese economy’s resilience. twelve countries were in recession, context, business sectors benefit from the strength companies exporting to the United States as local While, at first glance, the growth of the latter which is almost half as many as in of household consumption and favourable production structures are, to a large extent, unable did not show any signs of weakness in 2017 (as 2016 (23), and the lowest amount financing conditions, such as construction and to meet the resulting additional demand. in 2016), Chinese companies seem increasingly since 2007. In the United States, the automotive sectors, remained on a positive The historically low unemployment levels in many fragile: overcapacity continues to haunt sectors Germany, France, and a number of trend. Growth in business investment gained Central and Eastern European countries point to such as metals, chemistry, and construction. emerging countries (double-digit growth momentum in 2017. Growth levels are increasingly similar problems. Growth was very dynamic in Corporate debt has risen considerably, notably in Turkey!), activity was much stronger less disparate, while insolvency has continued to 2017 but is set to slow in 2018, again due to supply in the form of bank credit but also via shadow decline at a faster rate than we expected a year than expected in the third quarter of the constraints: strong wage pressures and labour banking, which is all the more worrying these ago. This trend is expected to continue at least year. This dynamic is in line with that of the shortages will limit the ability of companies to services are charged at extortionate rates. Labour during the first half of the coming year. However, first half, during which the main political risks produce more. Those who fail to include these costs are increasing sharply, penalising businesses as of the second half of the year, companies are feared in early 2017 did not materialize­­­. higher production costs in their selling prices will in sectors such as textile-clothing. Finally, likely to gradually be subject to ever-increasing suffer from these supply constraints. businesses are facing a much reduced pace of In the United States, the protectionist rhetoric supply constraints, both in Germany (where activity compared to the previous decade. In this of the new American president did not result in a the unemployment rate has been at a 37-year In the rest of the emerging world, recovery is context, the banking risk is increasing significantly. significant number of concrete measures limiting low), and in France, where business owners are expected to continue. In 2017, the gradual rise in Ultimately, only government intervention, notably international trade, although discussions with experiencing increasing recruitment difficulties, oil prices gave a shot of adrenaline to countries through major public investments, allowed these Mexico and Canada over NAFTA continue. In despite the high level of unemployment. dependent on oil-related revenues, particularly structural weaknesses to be temporarily hidden Western Europe, the results of the elections in the in Latin America, Russia, and other CIS countries. This issue of overheating will also be relevant in the in 2016 and 2017. Netherlands and France have not destabilised or However, this slight rise in prices is not a cure-all: United States, where the plan to reduce corporate jeopardised the European project. However, not its scale remains largely insufficient to balance Lastly, note that this recovery in emerging and household tax rates supported by the Trump all political uncertainties have disappeared - far the government budgets in Saudi Arabia, Algeria, countries could, in some cases, be nipped in the Administration was finally voted in late last year by from it. The difficulties of forming a government and Nigeria. bud by the resurgence of political risks. Despite the Senate and the House of Representatives. While in Germany following the elections in September the recent upturn of activity, high social frustration this should delay the end of the USA’s expansion Furthermore, the rise in oil prices, like that of 2017, the separatist desires of part of the Catalan has been created by increased income inequality, cycle (already the third-longest since the beginning other commodities (notably several metals), population, and the upcoming elections in Italy are high unemployment, and corruption. Upcoming of the twentieth century after those of 1960 and had the merit of contributing to the rebound in prime examples of this. elections in several countries (including Brazil and 1990), it will not be enough to accelerate US growth, international trade in 2017. Even if the latter tended Mexico as well as Russia and Egypt) this year will In the end, the political factor did not slow the as an increasing number of business sectors (such to lose some strength at the end of last year, it therefore all be risk factors to monitor. development of European companies, who as automotive) are already experiencing supply encourages strong growth of Asian economies, continue to benefit from a number of favourable constraints. Reaching 4.1% in November 2017, the whose businesses are internationally oriented Many other country and sector risks are discussed factors: a very expansionary monetary policy unemployment rate was effectively the lowest since (e.g. Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong). in the twenty-second edition of this annual report, resulting in a gradual recovery of credit to the 2001, which is a sign that the US economy is close However, in 2018, the favourable dynamics of Asian published by Coface. I hope you enjoy reading the private sector, continued low oil prices helping to running at full capacity. economies will continue to depend on protectionist 2018 edition and that you find it of interest. 04 COFACE Country & Sector Risks Handbook 2018 COFACE Country & Sector Risks Handbook 2018 05 COFACE GLOBAL ASSESSMENTS DEFINITION TOOLS FOR IDENTIFYING, OF COUNTRY ASSESSMENTS ASSESSING AND MONITORING Very good macroeconomic and financial outlook. Stable political context. A1 High quality business climate. This environment positively influences companies’ payment behaviour. The average probability of default is very low. THE RISKS BUSINESSES Good macroeconomic and financial outlook. Generally stable political context. A2 Overall healthy business climate. The average probability of default is low. ARE FACING Less favourable and/or volatile macroeconomic and financial outlook. Political A3 context remains stable. Business climate may have some shortcomings. The average probability of default is satisfactory. Economic and financial outlook could be marked by some weaknesses. Political A4 context could suffer from tension. Business climate may present significant
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