Passenger

Core

Market

Analysis

Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field

Ev erett,

Report prepared by

28829 Lockheed Drive, Suite 2A Eugene, Oregon 97402 Phone: 541/689-9997 Email: [email protected] www.meadhunt.com

September 14, 2004 Table of contents

Table of contents

Page

Section 1. Introduction...... 1 Objectives...... 1 Methodology...... 1

Section 2. Executive summary...... 3

Section 3. Airport catchment area, activity, and use...... 5 Airport catchment area...... 5 Competing airport departures...... 6 Competing airport available seats...... 7 Passenger trends...... 8

Section 4. Destinations...... 9 Itinerary type...... 9 Catchment area top 25 destinations...... 10 Nonstop service to top destinations...... 11 Travel time comparison...... 12 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) geographic regions...... 13 Regional distribution of catchment area travelers...... 14 Distribution of international travel...... 15

Section 5. Airlines...... 16 Airlines used...... 16

Section 6. Airfares...... 17 U.S. DOT reported airfares...... 17 Ten-year average fare trend...... 18

Section 7. True market estimate...... 19 Methodology – market share ...... 19 Methodology – passengers...... 20 True market...... 20 Retention rate sensitivity...... 21

Section 8. Situation analysis...... 22

Table of contents

Appendices Page Appendix A. Glossary...... 24 Appendix B. True market estimate – top 50 markets...... 26

Tables Table 3.1 -Tacoma International Airport weekly departures...... 6 Table 3.2 Seattle-Tacoma International Airport weekly available seats...... 7 Table 4.1 Catchment area destination patterns...... 9 Table 4.2 Catchment area top 25 destinations...... 10 Table 4.3 Nonstop service at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport...... 11 Table 4.4 Time comparison (minutes to the aircraft gate)...... 12 Table 4.5 Regional distribution of travel...... 14 Table 4.6 Regional distribution of international passengers...... 15 Table 5.1 Airlines used...... 16 Table 6.1 U.S. DOT average fares...... 17 Table 7.1 True market estimates – top 10 markets...... 20 Table 7.2 Retention rate sensitivity...... 21

Exhibits Exhibit 3.1 Catchment area by zip code...... 5 Exhibit 3.2 Origin and destination passenger trend...... 8 Exhibit 4.1 Itinerary type...... 9 Exhibit 4.2 FAA geographic regions...... 13 Exhibit 4.3 Regional distribution of travel ...... 14 Exhibit 4.4 Regional distribution of international travel...... 15 Exhibit 6.1 Ten-year average fare trend...... 18 Exhibit 6.2 Ten-year average fare trend (1994 dollars) ...... 18 Exhibit 7.1 Seattle-Tacoma International Airport catchment area...... 19

Section 1 Introduction

Section 1. Introduction

Snohomi sh County Government i s i nterested in understandi ng the market for commercial ai r servi ce at Pai ne Fiel d. A key el ement of thi s effort i s the generati on and development of credible information that can be used to evaluate current air service to the area and identify opportunities for improvement. The Passenger Core Market Analysis provides objective information on air travel in the region that cannot be accessed from other sources. Thi s i s especiall y important for Snohomi sh County si nce the Ai rport has no consi stent commercial air se rvi ce hi sto ry.

As the domesti c ai rline industry continues to undergo considerable change, it is prudent for county leaders to understand the local air travel market. Airlines make service decisions based on two primary factors: return on investment and company strategy. In large markets li ke the Seattle area, ai rport and ai r space capaci ty/congestion are al so key considerations. Passenger Core Market Anal ysis information provides objecti ve background data for evaluating and analyzi ng service gaps and market vi abili ty. Ai rline staff members often review Passenger Core Market Anal ysis data as one element of the overall assessment of market potential.

Objectives The primary objective of the Passenger Core Market Anal ysi s is to develop informati on on the travel patterns of local ai rline passengers that reside in the geographi c area that could potenti all y be served by Snohomi sh County Ai rport/Paine Field. Included i n the i nformation to be devel oped are: • Estimated passenger traffic associated with the target catchment area • Passenger traffic and related destinations • Airlines used by local air travelers • Average ai rfares by originati ng/destination ai rport • An estimate of the size of the true market for airline passengers in the region

A total of 136,634 airline bookings were tabulated and included in the Passenger Core Market Anal ysis. Airline booking informati on was coll ected for a one-year period from March 1, 2003 to February 29, 2004. The reader should keep in mind that the data used i s a sample of ai rline bookings NOT all booki ngs wi thi n the one-year period. Over 98.2 percent of sample bookings originated from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. The remaining sample booking information from other competing airports in the region was excluded from the Passenger Core Market Analysis due to the limited use of these airports by air travelers from the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area.

Methodology Thi s analysi s combines Marketing Information Data Tape (MIDT ) booki ng information from the Global Di stribution Systems (GDS), which i s used by travel agencies, and U.S. Department of T ransportation (DOT ) airline data to provide a comprehensive overview of the air service market in this region. The information coll ected i ncl udes originating ai rports, destinati ons, and ai rli nes used. The data i s anal yzed to accompli sh the objectives of the Passenger Core Market Analysis.

Page 1 Section 1 Introduction

For the purposes of this study, MIDT includes bookings made by travel agencies in the defined Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area. It does not capture passenger bookings issued directly by airline websites (i.e., www.alaskaair.com, www.southwest.com, etc.), agency Internet sites (i.e., www.travelocity.com, www.expedia.com, www.priceline.com, etc.), or directly through airline reservation offices.

Data from agency Internet sites was not used in this study since MIDT is sorted by zip code. Internet sites record all bookings as originating from the zip code in which the server resides. For example, all bookings for www.travelocity.com are recorded with a Southlake, TX zip code regardless of the air traveler’s location. Given this, retention/diversion information cannot be derived from Internet site bookings. Moreover, the data used in this analysis is a sample of travel agency airline bookings and does not include all bookings within the survey period.

The near elimination of commissions paid by airlines to travel agencies has reduced the number of tickets written by travel agencies. Although this development has reduced the number of tickets written by travel agencies, the sample size is sufficiently large that it represents a statistically valid portrayal of the local travel market. The data sample of local air traveler’s bookings provides the basis for identifying and prioritizing possible strategies for new routes.

By using calendar year 2000 population statistics and information provided to the U.S. DOT by the airlines for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, the true market was estimated for the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area. The true market is the total number of air travelers in the geographic area served by Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field. To determine passengers by destination, the true market estimate was combined with MIDT information for the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area. The true market estimate includes the size of the total market as well as estimates for specific destinations.

Page 2 Section 2 Executive summary

Section 2. Executive summary

Survey sample Destinations A total of 136,634 airline bookings were In the survey sample, 51.7 percent of the air tabulated and included in the Passenger Core travelers were destined for one of the top 25 Market Analysis. Airline booking information markets. The top 10 destinations accounted for was collected for a one-year period from March 30.5 percent of the total sample. 1, 2003 to February 29, 2004. The reader was the number one destination for the survey should keep in mind that the data used is a sample with San Diego as the second sample of airline bookings NOT all bookings destination. London Heathrow was the top within the period. i nternational desti nation.

Airport catchment area Nonstop serv ice Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field’s Seattle-Tacoma International Airport offered catchment area is assumed to include an nonstop service to 88 destinations. estimated population of 1,118,315 and 61 zip Furthermore, Seattle-Tacoma International codes in the state of Washington. At present, Airport offered nonstop service to 24 of the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area is considered part of the Seattle- catchment area’s top 25 destinations. Tacoma International Airport catchment area. Regional distribution of trav el Departures and available seats Regionally, most domestic travelers were Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field does not destined for the West followed by destinations in currently have commercial air service. Seattle- the East and Southeast regions. In the survey Tacoma International Airport is used by the sample, 36.7 percent of the total air travelers majority of Snohomish County Airport/Paine were destined for cities in the West region Field catchment area air travelers. Seattle- followed by 9.6 percent to the East region and Tacoma International Airport was served by 9.3 percent to the Southeast. A relatively high many carriers with 3,066 departures per week, percentage, 15.6 percent, traveled to 59.6 percent of which were provided by Alaska i nternational desti nations. Of those ai r travelers Airlines/. Seattle-Tacoma with an international itinerary, 40.9 percent were International Airport offered 344,533 available destined for Europe. seats per week, 85.8 percent of which were provided on jet ai rcraft. Airlines used Overall, and Horizon Air Passenger trends captured 36.6 percent of the travel represented From calendar year 1994 to calendar year 2003, in the survey. was the second Seattle-Tacoma International Airport’s domestic most frequently used airline in the survey origin and destination passengers increased by sample, capturing 16.7 percent of air travelers. a compounded annual growth rate of 2.2 Northwest Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and percent. American Ai rlines foll owed behi nd wi th market shares ranging from 8.4 percent to 5.8 percent.

Page 3 Section 2 Executive summary

Airfares Air service opportunities Based on U.S. DOT airline data, the one-way Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field's true average domestic ticket price for Seattle- market is estimated at 2,891,782 annual Tacoma International Airport passengers was enplanements (see Section 7). Given the $152.13 for calendar year 2003. Not proximity to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport surprisingly, the one-way average ticket price and the air service available, it is not reasonable out of Seattle-Tacoma International Airport to to expect that all of these passengers would use the top destination, Las Vegas, of $97.70 was the local airport. However, there is the potential significantly less than the overall average for Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field to domestic one-way ticket price. function as a secondary airport. The most likely air service providers would be United Airlines to Average fare trend San Francisco and/or , Delta Air Lines to Based on U.S. DOT airline data, Seattle- Salt Lake City, or Horizon Air/Alaska Airlines to Tacoma International Airport’s one-way average Los Angeles and/or Las Vegas. America West domestic fares have fluctuated over the 10-year Airlines to Phoenix would be another possibility. period from calendar year 1994 to calendar year Carriers to date have not chosen to provide 2003. Overall, Seattle-Tacoma International servi ce to an addi ti onal ai rport in the Seattl e Airport’s average fare declined at a compounded area. annual rate of 0.1 percent.

Page 4 Section 3 Airport catchment area, activity, and use

Section 3. Airport catchment area, activity, and use

Airport catchment area The ai rport catchment area i s the geographi c area from whi ch an ai rport can reasonabl y expect to draw commercial air service passengers. However, airport use by the airport catchment area population is affected by a variety of factors, including the proximity to competing airport(s), airfares, destinations offered, and flight frequency.

Exhi bi t 3.1 identifi es the zip codes included in the Snohomi sh County Ai rport/Paine Fiel d catchment area. The Snohomi sh County Ai rport/Pai ne Fi eld catchment area i s comprised of 61 zi p codes wi th a combined popul ati on of 1,118,315. It is within thi s catchment area that potential users of Snohomi sh County Airport/Paine Field air service are most likely to reside. The proximity of the catchment area to Seattle-Tacoma Internati onal Ai rport will make passenger retention at Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field challenging. For thi s report, airli ne booking information from travel agencies wi thi n the catchment area was pull ed through the GDS as one factor to determine the commerci al ai r service potential of Snohomi sh County Ai rport/Paine Field.

Exhibit 3.1 Catchment area by zip code

Source: Microsoft MapPoint 2004

Page 5 Section 3 Airport catchment area, activity, and use

Competing airport departures The quality of air service offered by an airport is a factor in an air traveler’s decision process. In general, passengers prefer larger aircraft over smaller aircraft and jet aircraft over turboprop aircraft. Tables 3.1 and 3.2 show weekly departures and available seats at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport as a measure of air service quality for the sample week of February 9, 2004.

Table 3.1 provides a summary of weekly departures by aircraft at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. Jet versus turboprop service is separated to review the quality of the service being provided. Alaska Airlines combined with Horizon Air provided 59.6 percent of total departures. United Airlines provided the second highest share of departures with 11.0 percent. rounded out the top three with 7.9 percent of the sample week departures. Alaska Airlines and Horizon Air served the market with a variety of narrow body jet aircraft, the De Havilland Dash-8 turboprop aircraft, and Canadair Regional Jets. United Airlines used wide body and narrow body jets for long haul destinations and the Embraer 120 Brasilia for feeder routes. Southwest Airlines’ entire fleet consists of narrow body 737s. Overall, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport offered 3,066 nonstop flights during the sample week. Jet departures totaled 65.9 percent of total departures.

Table 3.1 Seattle-Tacoma International Airport weekly departures Aircraft type Weekly departures Jet Turbo- AS UA WN AA DL NW Other Total prop 318/319 0 86 0 0 0 13 110 209 209 0 Airbus 340 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 7 0 574 55 241 8 35 0 104 1,017 1,017 0 0000072128280 Boeing 757 0 67 0 7 25 50 19 168 168 0 0 4 0 0 17 0 13 34 34 0 0140000 721210 Canadair 70 0 0070 784840 de Havilland Dash-8 Q200 582 0 0000 05820582 de Havilland Dash-8 Q300 0 0 000035350 35 de Havilland Dash-8 Q400 299 0 0000 02990299 Embraer 120 Brasilia 0 110 0000 01100110 Fairchild Metro 00000018180 18 McDonnell-Douglas DC10 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 21 21 0 McDonnell-Douglas MD-80/83 302 0 0 103 0 0 0 405 405 0 McDonnell-Douglas MD-90 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 28 28 0 Total 1,827 336 241 118 112 91 341 3,066 2,022 1,044 % of total 59.6 11.0 7.9 3.8 3.7 3.0 11.1 100.0 65.9 34.1 Source: Official Airline Guide – Week of Februar y 9, 2004 Note: AS-Alas ka Airlines, UA-Unit ed Airlines, WN-Sout hwest Airlines, AA-A merican Airlines, D L-Delta Air Lines, NW-Northwest Airlines

Page 6 Section 3 Airport catchment area, activity, and use

Competing airport available seats Table 3.2 provides a comparison of available seats by aircraft type at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport during the sample week. Alaska Airlines, combined with Horizon Air, provided the highest share of available seats with 49.1 percent of the total. Because Alaska Airlines/Horizon Air operates a mixed fleet of jet and turboprop aircraft, its percentage share of seats is less than its percentage share of departures. United Airlines, with the second highest share of departures, provided 11.1 percent of the available seats in the Seattle market. Because jet aircraft typically offer more seating capacity than turboprops, the percentage of available seats on jets (85.8 percent) is higher than the percentage of departures on jets (65.9 percent). Only 14.2 percent of the available seats in the Seattle market were provided on turboprop aircraft.

Table 3.2 Seattle-Tacoma International Airport weekly available seats Aircraft type Weekly available seats Jet Turbo- AS UA WN NW DL AA Other Total prop Airbus 318/319 0 11,256 0 1,756 0 0 15,084 28,096 28,096 0 Airbus 340 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,827 1,827 1,827 0 Boeing 737 78,288 6,794 32,747 0 5,390 1,136 15,074 139,429 139,429 0 Boeing 747 0 0 0 2,800 0 0 6,871 9,671 9,671 0 Boeing 757 0 12,194 0 10,381 4,625 1,442 3,268 31,910 31,910 0 Boeing 767 0 824 0 0 3,315 0 2,990 7,129 7,129 0 Boeing 777 0 3,892 0 0 0 0 2,148 6,040 6,040 0 Canadair Regional Jet 4,900 0 0 0 350 0 560 5,810 5,810 0 de Havilland Dash-8 Q200 21,534 0 0 0 0 0 0 21,534 0 21,534 de Havilland Dash-8 Q300 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,750 1,750 0 1,750 de Havilland Dash-8 Q400 22,126 0 0 0 0 0 0 22,126 0 22,126 Embraer 120 Brasilia 0 3,300 0 0 0 0 0 3,300 0 3,300 Fairchild Metro 0 0 0 0 0 0 342 342 0 342 McDonnell-Douglas DC10 0 0 0 5,670 0 0 0 5,670 5,670 0 McDonnell-Douglas MD-80/83 42,280 0 0 0 0 13,419 0 55,699 55,699 0 McDonnell-Douglas MD-90 0 0 0 0 4,200 0 0 4,200 4,200 0 Total 169,128 38,260 32,747 20,607 17,880 15,997 49,914 344,533 295,481 49,052 % of total 49.1 11.1 9.5 6.0 5.2 4.6 14.5 100.0 85.8 14.2 Source: Official Airline Guide – Week of Februar y 9, 2004 Note: AS-Alas ka Airlines, UA-Unit ed Airlines, WN-Sout hwest Airlines, N W-Northwest Airlines, DL-Delt a Air Li nes, AA-A merican Airlines

Page 7 Section 3 Airport catchment area, activity, and use

Passenger trends Airport passenger traffic is a function of population, economic activity, level of air service, distance to a competing airport, and cost of air service. Air travelers in the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area use Seattle-Tacoma International Airport to access air service. Exhibit 3.2 shows the domestic origin and destination passenger trend at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport compared to the population growth. Origin and destination passengers at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport have increased significantly over the past 10 years, with a compounded annual growth rate of 2.2 percent. The population in the region has grown as well, but at a slower compounded annual rate of 1.7 percent. As population in the Seattle region continues to grow, access limitations, congestion, and facility limitations may make Seattle-Tacoma International Airport a less desirable origination airport for air travelers.

Exhibit 3.2 Origin and destination passenger trend

20,000,000 3,400,000

3,000,000 18,000,000

2,600,000 16,000,000

2,200,000

14,000,000 Population 1,800,000 O&D passengers Seattle MSA O&D passengers - (SEA) 12,000,000 1,400,000

10,000,000 1,000,000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Calendar Year

Source: Data Base Products, Inc., Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. - CEDDS 2004

Page 8 Section 4 Destinations

Section 4. Destinations

This section of the Passenger Core Market Analysis investigates destinations associated with air travel from the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area. Additionally, the air travel destinations are grouped into geographic regions to further understand the flow of air travel from the airport catchment area. Over 98.2 percent of sample bookings originated travel from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. The remaining sample airline booking information associated with other competing airports in the region was excluded from the Passenger Core Market Analysis due to the minor number of air travelers using these airports.

Itinerary type Table 4.1 and Exhibit 4.1 show the breakdown of survey travelers by domestic and international itineraries. Of the survey sample air travelers, 84.4 percent (115,348) were traveling to a domestic destination while 15.6 percent (21,286) traveled to an international destination.

Table 4.1 Catchment area destination patterns Number of Percent Rank passengers of total Domestic itineraries only 115,348 84.4 International itineraries only 21,286 15.6 Total 136,634 100.0 Source: MIDT survey data – March 1, 2003 through Februar y 29, 2004

Exhibit 4.1 Itinerary type

International 15.6%

Domestic 84.4%

Page 9 Section 4 Destinations

Catchment area top 25 destinations Table 4.2 shows the top 25 survey destinations from the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area. 51.7 percent of air travelers were destined for the top 25 destinations and 69.3 percent of the total traffic was included in the top 50 destinations. Las Vegas was the number one destination with 5.3 percent of the survey market followed by San Diego and Los Angeles (LAX) with 3.9 and 3.4 percent, respectively. London Heathrow was the top international destination and ranked 21st overall with approximately 1.1 percent of survey bookings. The top 10 destinations represented approximately 30.5 percent of the total market.

Table 4.2 Catchment area top 25 destinations Rank Destination Passengers Percent of sample 1 Las Vegas, NV 7,251 5.3 2 San Diego, CA 5,387 3.9 3 Los Angeles, CA 4,659 3.4 4 Orange County, CA 4,624 3.4 5 Phoenix, AZ 4,011 2.9 6 Spokane, WA 3,543 2.6 7 San Francisco, CA 3,187 2.3 8 Chicago O'Hare, IL 3,068 2.2 9 Kahului, HI 3,019 2.2 10 Honolulu, HI 2,866 2.1 11 New York Newark, NJ 2,861 2.1 12 Dallas/Ft Worth, TX 2,742 2.0 13 Orlando, FL 2,631 1.9 14 Denver, CO 2,396 1.8 15 San Jose, CA 2,260 1.7 16 Reno, NV 1,934 1.4 17 Oakland, CA 1,813 1.3 18 New York JFK, NY 1,719 1.3 19 Minneapolis, MN 1,658 1.2 20 Washington Dulles, DC 1,623 1.2 21 London, England (Heathrow) 1,540 1.1 22 Baltimore, MD 1,471 1.1 23 Anchorage, AK 1,467 1.1 24 Atlanta, GA 1,451 1.1 25 Boston, MA 1,404 1.0 Total top 25 70,585 51.7 Total top 50 94,620 69.3 Total survey 136,634 100.0 Source: MIDT survey data – March 1, 2003 through Februar y 29, 2004

Page 10 Section 4 Destinations

Nonstop serv ice to top destinations Air travelers consider many factors when choosing an origination airport, one of which is service availability. Table 4.3 provides perspective on the level of air service offered at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport for the top 25 destinations identified in this survey.

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport had nonstop service to 24 of the catchment area’s top 25 destinations. Seattle-Tacoma International Airport offered 98 nonstop flights per week to the number one destination, Las Vegas, and 47 nonstop flights per week to the second most popular destination, San Diego.

Table 4.3 Nonstop service at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Rank Destination Nonstop departures 1 Las Vegas, NV 98 2 San Diego, CA 47 3 Los Angeles, CA 120 4 Orange County, CA 58 5 Phoenix, AZ 105 6 Spokane, WA 171 7 San Francisco, CA 105 8 Chicago O'Hare, IL 81 9 Kahului, HI 13 10 Honolulu, HI 14 11 New York Newark, NJ 45 12 Dallas/Ft Worth, TX 82 13 Orlando, FL 14 14 Denver, CO 98 15 San Jose, CA 62 16 Reno, NV 43 17 Oakland, CA 92 18 New York JFK, NY 21 19 Minneapolis, MN 37 20 Washington Dulles, DC 35 21 London, England (Heathrow) 7 22 Baltimore, MD 0 23 Anchorage, AK 110 24 Atlanta, GA 35 25 Boston, MA 13 Total top 25 frequencies 1,506 Number of top 25 served 24 of 25 Total destinations served 88 Source: Official Airline Guide - Week of Februar y 9, 2004 MIDT survey data – March 1, 2003 through Februar y 29, 2004

Page 11 Section 4 Destinations

Time comparison Table 4.4 compares the estimated time to travel and pass through ticketing and airport security to the aircraft gate at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport versus Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field for the communities in the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area.

Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field could offer catchment area travelers a significant pre-flight travel time savings over Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. The drive time to Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field is less than the drive time to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport from each of the catchment area communities. Additionally, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport recommends arriving at the airport an estimated two hours prior to scheduled departure for check-in and security. However, there are some Horizon Air and Alaska Airlines’ flights where expedited processing have reduced this check-in time significantly. It is estimated that recommended check-in and security at Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field would be between 60 and 90 minutes. An air traveler could potentially save up to 60 minutes for check-in and security by using Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field. The following table presents a best case scenario, congestion and parking time is not accounted for in the drive times. For purposes of this table, it is assumed that time spent for parking will be the same at both airports.

Table 4.4 Time comparison (minutes to the aircraft gate) Community Travel time Time Seattle-Tacoma Paine Field savings Anacortes 226 165 61 Arlington 218 157 61 Bothell 164 116 48 Brier 156 107 49 Coupeville 227 155 72 Duvall 200 166 34 Edmonds 166 109 57 Everett 170 109 61 Freeland 206 134 72 Kenmore 156 114 42 Kirkland 154 120 34 La Conner 220 159 61 Langley 205 134 71 Lake Forest Park 155 113 42 Lynnwood 161 106 55 Marysville 178 118 60 Mill Creek 170 110 60 Monroe 182 131 51 Mount Vernon 202 142 60 Mountlake Terrace 154 107 47 Mukilteo 172 106 66 Oak Harbor 238 176 62 Redmond 158 125 33 Seattle 152 117 35 Snohomish 189 128 61 Stanwood 194 134 60 Whidbey Island 238 177 61 Woodinville 167 125 42 Woodway 157 112 45 Note: (1) Drive time from local zip code to airport gate + estimated security time (PAE=90 min, SEA=120 min) Source: Microsoft MapPoint 2004

Page 12 Section 4 Destinations

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) geographic regions It is important to identify and quantify air travel destinations, but it is also important to measure air travel to specific geographic regions. Generally, airlines operate route systems that serve geographic areas. Additionally, most airline hubs are directional and flow passenger traffic to and from geographic regions, not just destinations within the region. Therefore, air service analysis exercises consider the regional flow of passenger traffic as well as passenger traffic to a specific city. Accordingly, this section analyzes the regional distribution of air travelers from the airport catchment area. For this exercise, the FAA geographic breakdown of the United States has been used (Exhibit 4.2).

Exhibit 4.2 FAA geographic regions

Northeast

Northwest Great Lakes

East

C entral West

Southeast Southwest

Alaska

Page 13 Section 4 Destinations

Regional distribution of catchment area travelers Regional distribution of air travel is an important consideration in identifying air carrier route systems that have the ability to meet local demand for air service. Table 4.5 divides air travel from Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field’s catchment area into the FAA's nine geographic regions and one catchall international region. International travel is further broken down in Table 4.6 (following page).

Of the area’s total air travelers, 36.7 percent were headed for cities in the West, 9.6 percent for cities in the East, 9.3 percent of air travelers are traveling to the Southeast, and 15.6 percent were destined for international destinations. Of the top 10 catchment area destinations, eight were located in the West region and one was located in each of the Northwest and Great Lakes regions.

Table 4.5 Regional distribution of travel Region Total

West Pax 50,179 % 36.7 International Pax 21,286 % 15.6 East Pax 13,086 %9.6 Southeast Pax 12,662 %9.3 Northwest Pax 11,614 %8.5 Great Lakes Pax 10,085 %7.4 Southwest Pax 9,102 %6.7 Alaska Pax 3,150 %2.3 Central Pax 2,847 %2.1 Northeast Pax 2,623 %1.9 Total passengers 136,634 % of column 100.0 Source: MIDT survey data – March 1, 2003 through Februar y 29, 2004

Exhibit 4.3 Regional distribution of travel

Int'l E 16% 10% W SE 36% 9%

NW 8.5% GL NE SW AK C 7.4% 1.9% 6.7% 2.3% 2.1%

Page 14 Section 4 Destinations

Distribution of international travel Approximately 15.6 percent of the survey's travelers had international itineraries. Of the 21,286 international travelers in the sample survey, 40.9 percent of air travelers were destined for Europe. 19.9 percent of air travelers with an international itinerary were destined for Asia. One factor contributing to the high percentage of international itineraries is the array of direct international flight options out of Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.

Table 4.6 Regional distribution of international passengers Region Total

Europe Pax 8,701 % 40.9 Asia Pax 4,239 % 19.9 Mexico or Central Pax 3,842 America % 18.0 Canada Pax 1,615 %7.6 Caribbean Pax 945 %4.4 Australia & Pax 724 Oceania %3.4 Middle East Pax 551 %2.6 South America Pax 476 %2.2 Africa Pax 193 %0.9 Total passengers 21,286 % of column 100.0 Source: MIDT survey data – March 1, 2003 through Februar y 29, 2004

Exhibit 4.4 Regional distribution of international travel

As i a 19.9% Europe 40.9% Me x. O r Ce n t Am er. 18.0%

SA Canada Af rica 2.2% 7.6% Ca rib. Aus t. ME 4.4% 3.4% 2.6% 0.9%

Page 15 Section 5 Airlines

Section 5. Airlines

It is important to understand which airlines are used to originate air travel and the destinations desired by local air travelers. This section provides specific information on airlines used by travelers from the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area. Information in this section is especially helpful in identifying air carrier strength in specific markets. The air carriers listed in the following tables are the marketing carriers, not necessarily the operating carrier. For example, Horizon Air is a code-share partner with Alaska Airlines and operates much of the nonstop Seattle to Spokane, WA service.

Airlines used Alaska Airlines including Horizon Air captured the greatest share of traffic (48.6 percent) to the top 25 destinations for the total survey with United Airlines and Northwest Airlines following behind with 17.0 percent and 5.1 percent of the traffic, respectively. For all destinations, Alaska Airlines lost a portion of its market share lead down to 36.6 percent. United Airlines maintained their second place position with 16.7 percent. Northwest Airlines gained market share overall, with 8.4 percent. Delta Air Lines and American Airlines took fourth and fifth highest market share, with market shares of 8.2 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively. Southwest Airlines did not make the top five. However, its share may be understated due to a high percentage of direct and online bookings which are not captured in this survey.

Table 5.1 Airlines used Rank Destinations Alask a United Northwest Delta American Othe r Total Pax % Pax % Pax % Pax % Pax % Pax % Pax 1 Las Vegas, NV 5 ,175 71.4 10 9 1. 5 0 0.0 17 0.2 0 0.0 1, 950 2 6.9 7, 251 2 San Dieg o, CA 4 ,958 92.0 23 6 4. 4 0 0.0 12 0.2 0 0.0 1 81 3.4 5, 387 3 Los Angeles, CA 2 ,967 63.7 1,48 7 31. 9 38 0.8 6 0.1 4 0.1 1 57 3.4 4, 659 4 Orange Coun ty, CA 4 ,367 94.4 20 0 4. 3 0 0.0 5 0.1 0 0.0 52 1.1 4, 624 5 Phoenix, AZ 2 ,592 64.6 13 2 3. 3 0 0.0 17 0.4 2 0.0 1, 268 3 1.6 4, 011 6 Spokane, WA 3 ,213 90.7 10 8 3. 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 2 22 6.3 3, 543 7 San Fran cisco, CA 1 ,505 47.2 1,65 7 52. 0 11 0.3 7 0.2 1 0.0 6 0.2 3, 187 8 Chicago O'Hare, IL 2 0.1 2,41 8 78. 8 54 1.8 21 0.7 508 16.6 65 2.1 3, 068 9 Kahului, HI 10 0.3 11 9 3. 9 423 1 4.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 2, 467 8 1.7 3, 019 10 Hono lulu, HI 35 1.2 12 1 4. 2 1 ,220 4 2.6 5 0.2 0 0.0 1, 485 5 1.8 2, 866 11 New York Ne wark, NJ 484 16.9 31 1 10. 9 33 1.2 23 0.8 23 0.8 1, 987 6 9.5 2, 861 12 Dallas/Ft W orth, TX 15 0.5 84 6 30. 9 9 0.3 416 15.2 887 32.3 5 69 2 0.8 2, 742 13 Orlando, FL 768 29.2 33 7 12. 8 230 8.7 626 23.8 257 9.8 4 13 1 5.7 2, 631 14 Denver, CO 818 34.1 1,12 9 47. 1 73 3.0 53 2.2 0 0.0 3 23 1 3.5 2, 396 15 San Jose, CA 2 ,115 93.6 6 0. 3 0 0.0 5 0.2 0 0.0 1 34 5.9 2, 260 16 Reno , NV 1 ,415 73.2 2 6 1. 3 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 4 93 2 5.5 1, 934 17 Oakland , CA 1 ,544 85.2 0 0. 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 2 69 1 4.8 1, 813 18 New York JFK, NY 76 4.4 27 2 15. 8 19 1.1 797 46.4 419 24.4 1 36 7.9 1, 719 19 Min neapo lis, MN 30 1.8 12 4 7. 5 1 ,095 6 6.0 23 1.4 3 0.2 3 83 2 3.1 1, 658 20 Washingto n Dulles, DC 368 22.7 1,14 2 70. 4 16 1.0 9 0.6 20 1.2 68 4.2 1, 623 21 Londo n, England (Heathrow) 13 0.8 20 9 13. 6 5 0.3 0 0.0 143 9.3 1, 170 7 6.0 1, 540 22 Balt imore, MD 0 0.0 50 0 34. 0 250 1 7.0 299 20.3 89 6.1 3 33 2 2.6 1, 471 23 Anchora ge, AK 1 ,230 83.8 5 9 4. 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 78 1 2.1 1, 467 24 Atla nta, GA 2 0.1 18 0 12. 4 43 3.0 961 66.2 40 2.8 2 25 1 5.5 1, 451 25 Boston, MA 616 43.9 27 1 19. 3 51 3.6 39 2.8 234 16.7 1 93 1 3.7 1, 404 To t al to p 25 34 ,318 48.6 11,99 9 17. 0 3 ,570 5.1 3,34 1 4.7 2,630 3.7 14,727 2 0.9 70,585 To t al to p 50 42 ,390 44.8 14,879 15.7 5 ,590 5.9 6,24 2 6.6 4,6674.9 20, 85222.0 94,620 Total survey 50 ,000 36.6 22,87 9 16. 7 11 ,536 8.4 11,22 2 8.2 7,955 5.8 33,042 2 4.2 136,634 Source: MIDT survey data – March 1, 2003 through Februar y 29, 2004

Page 16 Section 6 Airfares

Section 6. Airfares

This section of the report is devoted to airfares paid by air travelers. Airfares paid by the survey travelers are not available from the MIDT data. However, airfare information is available on a quarterly basis from the U.S. DOT. The reader should keep in mind that this information does not relate directly to MIDT survey data.

U.S. DOT reported airfares Table 6.1 shows one-way actual domestic airfares (excluding taxes and passenger facility charges) paid by all air travelers originating and/or destined for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport for the top 25 domestic survey destinations. Seattle-Tacoma International Airport's average domestic one-way fare for all destinations was $152.13. The lowest average fare for the top 25 markets was $59.48 one-way to Spokane. The highest fare for the top 25 domestic markets was Washington Dulles with an average one- way fare of $295.79.

Table 6.1 U.S. DOT average fares SEA One- Rank Destination way fare 1 Las Vegas, NV $97.70 2 San Diego, CA $135.60 3 Los Angeles, CA $131.67 4 Orange County, CA $150.68 5 Phoenix, AZ $118.41 6 Spokane, WA $59.48 7 San Francisco, CA $119.28 8 Chicago O'Hare, IL $190.78 9 Kahului, HI $248.17 10 Honolulu, HI $235.76 11 New York Newark, NJ $237.86 12 Dallas/Ft Worth, TX $240.86 13 Orlando, FL $137.41 14 Denver, CO $145.09 15 San Jose, CA $96.08 16 Reno, NV $74.13 17 Oakland, CA $93.04 18 New York JFK, NY $165.71 19 Minneapolis, MN $184.47 20 Washington Dulles, DC $295.79 21 Baltimore, MD $164.14 22 Anchorage, AK $220.04 23 Atlanta, GA $225.84 24 Boston, MA $225.89 25 New Orleans, LA $169.29 Average fare all domestic markets $152.13 Note: Fares do not include taxes or passenger facility charges. Source: Data Base Products, Inc. – c alendar year 2003 MIDT survey data – March 1, 2003 through Februar y 29, 2004

Page 17 Section 6 Airfares

Ten-year average fare trend Exhibit 6.1 tracks the average domestic one-way fares at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport from calendar year 1994 through calendar year 2003. The fares do not include passenger facility charges or taxes. The graph in Exhibit 6.2 charts the average fare for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport adjusted for inflation (1994 dollars).

Average domestic one-way fares dropped from 1993 through 1996 partly due to low fare carrier Southwest Airlines starting service in 1994. Fares increased from 1997 through 2000 on the basis of strong economic growth. The soft economy and the effect of September 11, 2001 pushed airfares down from 2001 through 2002. Fares recovered somewhat in 2003. For the period from 1994 through 2003, air fares varied from $138.93 to $167.25. However, air fares began and ended the decade at about $153.00.

Exhibit 6.1 Ten-year average fare trend $170.00 $165.00 S eatle-Tacoma I nternat ional Airport $160.00 $155.00 $150.00 $145.00 $140.00 One-way average fare average One-way $135.00 $130.00 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Calendar year

Source: Data Base Products, Inc .

Adjusted for inflation, average fares decreased at a compounded annual rate of 2.4 percent for Seattle- Tacoma International Airport.

Exhibit 6.2 Ten-year average fare trend (1994 dollars)

$155.00 $150.00 Seatle-Tacoma I nternat ional Airport $145.00 $140.00 $135.00 $130.00 $125.00 One-way average fare $120.00 $115.00 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Calendar year

Source: Data Base Products, Inc ., http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/c picalc.pl

Page 18 Section 7 True market estimate

Section 7. True market estimate

Methodology – market share This portion of the Passenger Core Market Analysis is devoted to estimating the total number of trips generated by the population in the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area. Because Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field does not have commercial air service, its catchment area is currently considered to be part of Seattle-Tacoma International Airport’s catchment area (exhibit 7.1). To estimate the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field market share, the population (determined using Microsoft MapPoint 2004 population statistics) of the catchment area (yellow) is divided by the total Seattle-Tacoma International Airport catchment area (yellow + light blue). It is estimated that the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area contains approximately 28.6 percent (1,118,315) of the total population of the current Seattle-Tacoma International Airport catchment area (3,911,660). Accordingly, the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area could garner a comparable share of the area’s air travel market.

Exhibit 7.1 Seattle-Tacoma International Airport catchment area

Source: Microsoft MapPoint 2004

Page 19 Section 7 True market estimate

Methodology – passengers By combining the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area population percentage information with domestic passenger data contained in the U.S. DOT airline reports for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, an estimate of Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field’s domestic air travel market can be calculated [Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field population share (28.6 percent) x Seattle- Tacoma International Airport origin and destination passengers (17,611,880) = Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field true market (5,041,543)]. The total Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area true market passengers were distributed across the domestic origin and destination markets using the percentage market share by destination identified in the MIDT survey. The top 50 true market destinations are identified in Appendix B, True market estimate – top 50 markets.

In order to estimate the number of passengers traveling to each destination from the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area, markets were ranked using the top destinations and percentage market share by destination identified in the MIDT data. This information was mathematically combined with U.S. DOT airline report information for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. A mentioned above, Appendix B provides an estimate of the true market for the top 50 domestic destinations for Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field.

True market The Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area’s true market annual origin and destination passengers are estimated to be 5,041,543 (Appendix B). An estimated 1,535,517 annual origin and destination passengers are included in the top 10 destinations (Table 7.1). However, if commercial air service were offered at Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport would continue to attract a healthy share of the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field market. Estimating the number of passengers that would use the local airport and the air service improvements required to serve these new customers are topics for further study.

Table 7.1 True market estimates – top 10 markets Rank Airport SEA Reported PAE PAE market O&D paxs O&D paxs survey % share % genera ted 1 Las Vegas, NV 831,580 5.3 32.2 267,549 2 San Diego, CA 520,650 3.9 38.2 198,770 3 Los Angeles, CA 839,100 3.4 20.5 171,909 4 Orange County, CA 462,820 3.4 36.9 170,617 5 Phoenix, AZ 665,270 2.9 22.2 147,999 6 Spokane, WA 496,120 2.6 26.4 130,730 7 San Francisco, CA 526,180 2.3 22.3 117,594 8 Chicago O'Hare, IL 389,850 2.2 29.0 113,204 9 Kahului, HI 166,710 2.2 66.8 111,396 10 Honolulu, HI 296,260 2.1 35.7 105,750 Total top 10 markets 5,194,540 30.5 29.6 1,535,517 Total of all markets 17,634,390 100.0 28.6 5,041,543 Source: Data B ase Products, Inc. , MIDT sur vey data – March 1, 2003 through Febr uar y 29, 2004 Note: Hawaiian mar kets may be over st ated due to a high perc ent age of bookings pl aced thr ough travel agencies versus other channels. Or non S nohomish C ount y Airport/P aine Fi eld catchment area resi dents booki ng travel t hrough c atc hment area agencies.

Page 20 Section 7 True market estimate

Retention rate sensitivity The true market estimate calculated a market share of 28.6 percent of the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport market and assumed retention of 100.0 percent. Given the level of air service and low airfares at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, it is logical that Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field will not retain 100.0 percent of its catchment area market share. Table 7.2 calculates the estimated passengers given varying degrees of retention. In addition, passengers are estimated at each retention level for the top 25 markets.

With retention of 30.0 percent of the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field market, 1,512,463 origin and destination passengers would be generated annually. On a market-by-market basis, Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field could generate 80,265 passengers annually to the number one destination, Las Vegas, with retention of 30.0 percent of the market.

Table 7.2 Retention rate sensitivity Rank Airport Estimated % of Est. pax with retention of… PAE pax market 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 1 Las Vegas, NV 267,549 5.3 53,510 80,265 107,019 2 San Diego, CA 198,770 3.9 39,754 59,631 79,508 3 Los Angeles, CA 171,909 3.4 34,382 51,573 68,763 4 Orange County, CA 170,617 3.4 34,123 51,185 68,247 5 Phoenix, AZ 147,999 2.9 29,600 44,400 59,199 6 Spokane, WA 130,730 2.6 26,146 39,219 52,292 7 San Francisco, CA 117,594 2.3 23,519 35,278 47,038 8 Chicago O'Hare, IL 113,204 2.2 22,641 33,961 45,281 9 Kahului, HI 111,396 2.2 22,279 33,419 44,558 10 Honolulu, HI 105,750 2.1 21,150 31,725 42,300 11 New York Newark, NJ 105,566 2.1 21,113 31,670 42,226 12 Dallas/Ft Worth, TX 101,175 2.0 20,235 30,352 40,470 13 Orlando, FL 97,079 1.9 19,416 29,124 38,832 14 Denver, CO 88,408 1.8 17,682 26,522 35,363 15 San Jose, CA 83,390 1.7 16,678 25,017 33,356 16 Reno, NV 71,361 1.4 14,272 21,408 28,544 17 Oakland, CA 66,896 1.3 13,379 20,069 26,759 18 New York JFK, NY 63,428 1.3 12,686 19,028 25,371 19 Minneapolis, MN 61,177 1.2 12,235 18,353 24,471 20 Washington Dulles, DC 59,886 1.2 11,977 17,966 23,954 21 Baltimore, MD 54,277 1.1 10,855 16,283 21,711 22 Anchorage, AK 54,130 1.1 10,826 16,239 21,652 23 Atlanta, GA 53,539 1.1 10,708 16,062 21,416 24 Boston, MA 51,805 1.0 10,361 15,542 20,722 25 New Orleans, LA 48,152 1.0 9,630 14,446 19,261 Total of above 2,595,786 51.5 519,157 778,736 1,038,314 Total of all markets 5,041,543 100.0 1,008,309 1,512,463 2,016,617 Source: Dat a B ase Products, Inc ., MIDT sur vey data – March 1, 2003 through Febr uar y 29, 2004

Page 21 Section 8 Situation analysis

Section 8. Situation analysis

Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field is located approximately 35 miles north of Seattle-Tacoma International Airport near Everett, Washington. With a 9,010 foot and an ILS instrument approach, it is capable of handling most commercial aircraft. It is located on the far northern edge of the Seattle metro area while Seattle-Tacoma International Airport is located in a southerly portion of the metro area. Population growth in the Seattle metro area in the last 15 to 20 years, the congested available travel corridors between Lake Washington and Puget Sound, and the densely populated suburbs east of Lake Washington have rendered access to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport extremely difficult from northern Seattle suburbs and populous areas to the north stretching toward Everett, Mount Vernon, and Anacortes. While this is nearly a day long problem, it is accentuated during morning and evening rush hours. The market for commercial air service at Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field was not viable 25 to 30 years ago, but the economic and population expansion in more recent years has made this market more robust. Air travel from the Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area via Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, complicated by time consuming security considerations, has made it difficult to predict with any degree of confidence the necessary lead time that must be allowed in order to comfortably make Seattle-Tacoma International Airport flight departure time particularly during morning and evening rush hours. The problem is likely to become worse in the future as no solutions are readily apparent.

The Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area has an estimated population of 1,118,315 with projections for continued rapid growth. It is estimated that the area currently generates over 5.75 million origin and destination passengers annually or nearly 2.9 million potential enplanements per year. Given the extensive service available at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, only a portion of these passengers would elect to use Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field. However, traveling against the prevailing traffic flow and lesser security clearance times equate to convenience and time-savings that could result in many air travelers choosing Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field service even if connections were required. Current gasoline price trends only add to the incentive for catchment area passengers to use commercial air service at Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field if it was available. Seattle would be following the path of other major metro areas such as Los Angeles and San Francisco where surface traffic congestion has spawned the emergence of secondary or satellite airports to restore the convenience of air travel.

With the bulk of catchment area travel focused on destinations to the south, a cursory examination of catchment area true market potential suggests that San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Las Vegas have air service potential. Though the potential indicates sufficient demand to allow use of larger aircraft, realistically, initial service would likely utilize regional jets with upgrades to larger aircraft dependent on marketplace response. The logical carrier for San Francisco service would be due to its hub. Los Angeles service could potentially be provided by United Express or Horizon Air. Phoenix and Las Vegas service could be provided by America West Express or Horizon Air. America West Express would be preferred particularly to Phoenix given its hub capability. Another possibility for Las Vegas service would be scheduled charters with the most likely service provider.

Page 22 Section 8 Situation analysis

Though volumes are less, convenience needs suggest that service to an eastbound hub, Delta Air Lines to Salt Lake City or Frontier Airlines or United Airlines to Denver, could likely be supported. Somewhat surprisingly, there appears to be sufficient demand to make service to a possibility though finding a willing carrier may be difficult. Aloha Airlines’ service in Boeing 737 aircraft could be a possibility, but would most likely not be considered until successful commercial scheduled service had been established at the airport for a period of time.

The reasons favoring Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field service are somewhat obvious. Such service would re-establish the convenience of air travel for the catchment area population of 1,118,315 who are now forced to struggle through the steadily worsening roadway congestion to reach Seattle- Tacoma International Airport. The major hurdle or negative factor is the reluctance of airlines to duplicate operations in a relatively compact geographic area. It involves a duplication of facilities as well as jobs and many times a lowering of utilization at both facilities. Though this is a serious problem, the reality of potentially being at a competitive disadvantage has prevailed in other large metro areas where satellite airports (Long Beach, Burbank, San Jose, etc.) have developed. Spiraling costs at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport may make carriers more receptive to possible alternatives. While many favorable factors are present, more in-depth analysis, which is outside the scope of this study, is needed to determine the feasibility and economic justification for scheduled commercial service from Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field to the markets identified.

Page 23 Appendix A Glossary

Appendix A. Glossary

Airport catchment area (ACA) Direct flight The geographic area surrounding an airport from A direct flight provides same-plane service which that airport can reasonably expect to draw between two points, but stops at an intermediate passenger traffic. The airport catchment area is airport(s). sometimes called the service area. Diversion Airport codes Passengers that do not use the local airport for LAX Los Angeles International Airport air travel, but instead use a competing airport to Los Angeles, CA originate the air portion of their trip. PAE Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field Everett, WA Enplanement SEA Seattle-Tacoma International Airport A passenger boarding a commercial aircraft. Seattle, WA FAA Airline codes Acronym for the Federal Aviation Administration. AA American Airlines AS Alaska Airlines GDS DL Delta Air Lines Acronym for Global Distribution Systems. There NW Northwest Airlines are four Global Distribution Systems in the UA United Airlines United States, including Amadeus, Galileo WN Southwest Airlines International (Apollo), Sabre, Inc., and Worldspan. Average fare The average of the fares reported by the airlines MIDT to the U.S. DOT. The average fare as reported Acronym for Marketing Information Data Tapes does not include taxes or passenger facility provided by the Global Distribution Systems. charges and represents one-half of a round-trip ticket (one-way). Nonstop flight Air travel between two points without stopping at Deplanement an intermediate airport. A passenger that is departing or getting off a commercial aircraft. O&D passengers Includes all originating and destination Destination airport passengers. In the context of this survey it Any airport where the air traveler spends four describes the passengers arriving and departing hours or more. This is the Federal Aviation an airport. Admini strati on defi ni ti on.

Page 24 Appendix A Glossary

Originating airport Retention The airport used by a traveler for the first Passengers that use the local airport for air enplanement of a commercial air flight. travel instead of using a competing airport to originate the air portion of their trip. Passenger facility charge Fee imposed by airports of $1 to $4.50 on True market enplaning passengers. The fees are used by The true market is the total number of air airports to fund FAA approved airport travelers, including those that are using a improvement projects. competing airport, in the geographic area served by Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field. The Pax true market estimate includes the size of the Abbreviation for passenger. total market as well as estimates for specific desti nati ons.

Page 25 Appendix B True market estimate – top 50 markets

Appendix B. True market estimate – top 50 markets

Snohomish County Airport/Paine Field catchment area total passengers generated Rank Airport SEA reported PAE PAE market O&D paxs O&D paxs survey % share % generated 1 Las Vegas, NV 831,580 5.3 32.2 267,549 2 San Diego, CA 520,650 3.9 38.2 198,770 3 Los Angeles, CA 839,100 3.4 20.5 171,909 4Orange County, CA 462,820 3.4 36.9 170,617 5 Phoenix, AZ 665,270 2.9 22.2 147,999 6Spokane, WA 496,120 2.6 26.4 130,730 7 San Francisco, CA 526,180 2.3 22.3 117,594 8Chicago O'Hare, IL 389,850 2.2 29.0 113,204 9 Kahului, HI 166,710 2.2 66.8 111,396 10 Honolulu, HI 296,260 2.1 35.7 105,750 11 New York Newark, NJ 300,670 2.1 35.1 105,566 12 Dallas/Ft Worth, TX 295,650 2.0 34.2 101,175 13 Orlando, FL 255,120 1.9 38.1 97,079 14 Denver, CO 484,920 1.8 18.2 88,408 15 San Jose, CA 519,570 1.7 16.0 83,390 16 Reno, NV 263,070 1.4 27.1 71,361 17 Oakland, CA 667,370 1.3 10.0 66,896 18 New York JFK, NY 317,860 1.3 20.0 63,428 19 Minneapolis, MN 287,440 1.2 21.3 61,177 20 Washington Dulles, DC 226,280 1.2 26.5 59,886 21 Baltimore, MD 203,320 1.1 26.7 54,277 22 Anchorage, AK 311,740 1.1 17.4 54,130 23 Atlanta, GA 262,970 1.1 20.4 53,539 24 Boston, MA 231,260 1.0 22.4 51,805 25 New Orleans, LA 114,980 1.0 41.9 48,152 26 Houston Inter., TX 169,490 1.0 28.4 48,115 27 Fort Lauderdale, FL 124,810 0.9 38.2 47,709 28 Burbank, CA 283,700 0.9 16.3 46,381 29 Sacramento, CA 414,310 0.9 10.8 44,684 30 Salt Lake City, UT 336,160 0.9 13.2 44,315 31 Palm Springs, CA 142,500 0.8 29.8 42,507 32 Ontario, CA 287,720 0.8 14.5 41,769 33 Washington National, DC 117,730 0.8 33.3 39,186 34 Kona, HI 58,400 0.7 62.9 36,751 35 Norfolk, VA 62,170 0.7 58.2 36,160 36 Philadelphia, PA 174,870 0.7 20.5 35,865 37 Miami, FL 96,040 0.7 36.6 35,164 38 Boise, ID 294,100 0.6 10.8 31,622 39 Kauai Island, HI 55,970 0.6 51.9 29,039 40 St Louis, MO 147,900 0.6 19.5 28,781 41 Portland, OR 154,530 0.6 18.0 27,858 42 San Antonio, TX 84,420 0.5 32.5 27,415 43 Tampa, FL 126,000 0.5 21.6 27,194 44 Detroit, MI 160,910 0.5 16.9 27,120 45 Kansas City, MO 143,030 0.5 18.5 26,530 46 Chicago Midway, IL 212,600 0.5 12.2 25,976 47 Tucson, AZ 120,610 0.5 20.9 25,165 48 Albuquerque, NM 111,240 0.5 20.6 22,951 49 Raleigh/Durham, NC 93,570 0.4 24.2 22,619 50 Nashville, TN 106,110 0.4 20.9 22,213 Total of above 14,015,650 68.2 24.5 3,438,872 Total of all markets 17,634,390 100.0 28.6 5,041,543 Source: Dat a B ase Products, Inc ., MIDT sur vey data – March 1, 2003 through Febr uar y 29, 2004

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