Public Opinion Survey of Residents of Ukraine

Home , Anatoliy Hrytsenko, Andriy Parubiy, Andriy Sadovyi, Martial law in Ukraine, Nashi (political party), Oleh Lyashko

December 13-27, 2018 Methodology • The survey was conducted by Rating Group Ukraine on behalf of the International Republican Institute’s Center for Insights in Survey Research. • The survey was conducted throughout Ukraine (except for the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas) from December 13- 27, 2018, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes. • The sample consisted of 2,400 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by gender, age, region, and settlement size. The distribution of population by regions and settlements is based on statistical data of the Central Election Commission from the 2014 parliamentary elections, and the distribution of population by age and gender is based on data from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine from January 1, 2018. • A multi-stage probability sampling method was used with the random route and “last birthday” methods for respondent selection. • Stage One: The territory of Ukraine was split into 25 administrative regions (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv). The survey was conducted throughout all regions of Ukraine, with the exception of the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. • Stage Two: The selection of settlements was based on towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to their size: • Cities with populations of more than 1 million • Cities with populations of between 500,000-999,000 • Cities with populations of between 100,000-499,000 • Cities with populations of between 50,000-99,000 • Cities with populations of up to 50,000 • Villages Cities and villages were selected by the PPS method (probability proportional to size). The number of selected cities/villages in each region is proportional to the share of population living in cities/villages of a certain type in each region. • Stage Three: Households were selected by the random route method, and respondents were selected by the “last birthday” rule. • The margin of error does not exceed 2.0 percent for the full sample. • The response rate is 62.7 percent. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • The survey was financed by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). • For disaggregations by intended vote, the Top 9 parties and the Top 10 presidential candidates are displayed. The sample of respondents who would vote for other parties/candidates is too small for analysis. 2 Frequently Cited Disaggregates

First Choice in Sample Size Political Party Sample Size Region Sample Size (n) Presidential Elections (n) Preference (n) West 625 Yuriy Boyko 169 Batkivshchyna 326 Center 813 Anatoliy Hrytsenko 164 BPP “Solidarnist” 180 East 375 Oleh Lyashko 136 Civic Position 146 South 587

Yevheniy Muraiev 77 Nashi 71

Petro Poroshenko 205 Oppositional Platform – 159 Za Zhyttia Age Sample Size (n) Andriy Sadoviy 50 Radical Party 141 Yulia Tymoshenko 320 18-35 714 Self-Reliance 62 Oleksandr Shevchenko 69 (Samopomich) 36-50 652 50+ 1,024 Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 54 Sluha Narodu 202

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 217 UKROP 66

I would not vote 322 I would not vote 355 Undecided 451 Undecided 469

3 Geographical Key

*Due to the Russian occupation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, residents of Crimea and the so- called separatist-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (“the Donbas”) were not surveyed in this poll. 4 Presidential Elections: March 31, 2019 Do you intend to vote in the presidential elections scheduled for March 31, 2019?

12% 32% Definitely yes

Somewhat yes 5% Somewhat no

Definitely no

Difficult to answer/No answer

42%

6 Do you intend to vote in the presidential elections scheduled for March 31, 2019? (Disaggregated by region, age)

Definitely yes Somewhat yes Somewhat no Definitely no Difficult to answer/No answer

West 38% 44% 4% 7% 7%

Center 32% 43% 5% 10% 10%

East 30% 40% 6% 14% 10%

South 26% 41% 6% 17% 10%

51+ 37% 40% 4% 10% 9%

36-50 30% 44% 5% 13% 8%

18-35 26% 43% 7% 13% 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 7 Do you intend to vote in the presidential elections scheduled for March 31, 2019? (Disaggregated by first choice in presidential election; see next slide)

Definitely yes Somewhat yes Somewhat no Definitely no Difficult to answer/No answer

Petro Poroshenko 57% 39% 4%

Yulia Tymoshenko 46% 44% 3% 1% 6%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 45% 47% 4% <1% 4%

Oleksandr Shevchenko 42% 49% 5% 4%

Oleh Lyashko 36% 54% 2% <1% 7%

Yuriy Boyko 34% 59% 1% <1% 6%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 32% 56% 3% <1%8%

Yevheniy Muraiev 31% 46% 6% 4% 14%

Andriy Sadovyi 30% 59% 2% 10%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 28% 62% 4% 6%

Undecided 23% 47% 6% 24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 8 If presidential elections were held next Sunday and the following candidates participated in the election, for whom would you vote?

(All respondents)

Yulia Tymoshenko 13% Volodymyr Zelenskyi 9% Petro Poroshenko 9% Yuriy Boyko 7% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 7% Oleh Lyashko 6% Yevheniy Muraiev 3% Oleksandr Shevchenko 3% Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 2% Andriy Sadovyi 2% Serhiy Taruta 1% Ruslan Koshulynskyi 1% Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 1% Arseniy Yatseniuk <1% Other 4% I would not vote 13% Difficult to answer/No answer 19%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 9 If presidential elections were held next Sunday and the following candidates participated in the election, for whom would you vote?

(Among likely voters: n=1,773)

Yulia Tymoshenko 16% Petro Poroshenko 11% Volodymyr Zelenskyi 11% Yuriy Boyko 9% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 8% Oleh Lyashko 7% Oleksandr Shevchenko 4% Yevheniy Muraiev 3% Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 3% Andriy Sadovyi 2% Serhiy Taruta 2% Ruslan Koshulynskyi 1% Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 1% Arseniy Yatseniuk 1% Other 4% Difficult to answer/No answer 17%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 10 If presidential elections were held next Sunday and the following candidates participated in the election, for whom would you vote?

(Disaggregated by age, region)

18-35 36-50 51+ West Center South East

Yulia Tymoshenko 11% 13% 16% 13% 16% 13% 8% Volodymyr Zelenskyi 18% 9% 3% 5% 10% 12% 7% Petro Poroshenko 7% 10% 9% 12% 9% 5% 7% Yuriy Boyko 3% 5% 11% 4% 5% 9% 13% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 3% 6% 10% 9% 7% 4% 6% Oleh Lyashko 3% 5% 8% 5% 6% 7% 3% Yevheniy Muraiev 1% 4% 4% - 4% 4% 6% Oleksandr Shevchenko 4% 3% 2% 6% 2% 2% 2% Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 4% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% Andriy Sadovyi 2% 4% 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% Serhiy Taruta 1% 1% 1% - 2% 1% 1% Ruslan Koshulynskyi 1% 1% - 2% - - 1% Valentyn Nalyvaichenko - 1% 1% 2% - - 1% Arseniy Yatseniuk 1% - - 1% - - - Other 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 3% 5% I would not vote 17% 14% 11% 9% 11% 19% 17% Difficult to answer/No answer 20% 19% 18% 23% 16% 18% 20% 11 If presidential elections were held next Sunday and the following candidates participated in the election, for whom would you vote?

(Disaggregated by political party preference)

Nashy

UKROP

Platform

Undecided

Opposition

Samopomich

Radical Party Radical Narodu Sluha

Civic Position Civic

Batkivshchyna

BPP Solidarnist BPP Would not votenot Would Yulia Tymoshenko 93% 3% - - 1% - 3% - 1% - - Petro Poroshenko 1% 91% 1% - - - 3% - 1% - 4% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1% 1% 88% - 2% 1% 6% - 1% 1% 2% Yevheniy Muraiev - 1% 1% 84% 4% 1% - - - 1% 1% Yuriy Boyko - - - 4% 87% 1% 2% - 1% - 2% Oleh Lyashko 1% - - - - 88% - 1% - - 1% Andriy Sadovyi - 1% - - - - 67% - - - 1% Volodymyr Zelenskyi - - 1% 4% - 1% - 88% 2% - 5% Oleksandr Shevchenko 1% 1% 2% - - 2% 2% - 79% 1% - Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 1% 1% 2% - - 1% 8% 5% 3% 1% 4% Serhiy Taruta - - 1% - - - - 1% - - - Ruslan Koshulynskyi ------1% Valentyn Nalyvaichenko ------1% - - - - Arseniy Yatseniuk ------Other - 1% - 7% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 3% I would not vote - - 1% - 1% - - - - 84% 4% Difficult to answer/No answer 1% 2% 4% 1% 3% 6% 6% 4% 8% 10% 72% *The highlighting indicates candidates’ political party affiliation. 12 Presidential Election: Run-Off Scenarios If the following two candidates made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote?

Poroshenko vs. Hrytsenko vs. Tymoshenko Tymoshenko

Anatoliy Petro 21% Poroshenko 13% Hrytsenko

Yulia Yulia Tymoshenko 23% Tymoshenko 26%

Would not Would not vote 35% vote 41% Difficult to Difficult to answer/No 20% answer/No answer 21% answer 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40%

Tymoshenko vs. Sadovyi vs. Zelenskyi Tymoshenko

Yulia Tymoshenko 24% Andriy Sadovyi 15%

Volodymyr Yulia Tymoshenko Zelenskyi 23% 25%

Would not vote 33% Would not vote 38%

Difficult to Difficult to answer/No 22% answer/No answer 21% answer

0% 20% 40% 0% 20% 40% 14 If the following two candidates made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote?

Boyko vs. Tymoshenko vs. Tymoshenko Vakarchuk

Yuriy Boyko 14% Yulia Tymoshenko 26%

Yulia Sviatoslav 18% Tymoshenko 28% Vakarchuk

Would not Would not vote 35% vote 38% Difficult to Difficult to answer/No 20% answer/No answer 21% answer 0% 20% 40% 0% 20% 40%

Hrytsenko vs. Poroshenko vs. Poroshenko Zelenskyi

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 27% Petro Poroshenko 14%

Petro Poroshenko 11% Volodymyr Zelenskyi 29%

Would not vote 38% Would not vote 36%

Difficult to 24% Difficult to answer/No answer/No answer answer 21%

0% 20% 40% 0% 20% 40% 15 If the following two candidates made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote?

Boyko vs. Poroshenko vs. Poroshenko Sadovyi

Yuriy Boyko 18% Petro Poroshenko 13%

Petro Andriy Sadovyi 18% Poroshenko 18%

Would not Would not vote 45% vote 41% Difficult to Difficult to answer/No 23% answer/No answer 24% answer 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Poroshenko vs. Vakarchuk

Petro Poroshenko 12%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 22%

Would not vote 42%

Difficult to answer/No answer 24%

0% 20% 40% 60% 16 If Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote? Yulia Tymoshenko Petro Poroshenko Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

(Disaggregated by first round choice) Nationwide 26% 13% 41% 20% Yulia Tymoshenko 99% 1% Center 29% 12% 42% 17% Oleh Lyashko 37% 5% 39% 20%

South 29% 8% 45% 18% Andriy Sadovyi 28% 16% 31% 25%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 24% 15% 41% 19% West 26% 20% 30% 23% Volodymyr Zelenskyi 22% 3% 54% 21% East 16% 10% 50% 24% Yuriy Boyko 19% 2% 59% 20%

Yevheniy Muraiev 19% 2% 67% 12%

Oleksandr Shevchenko 13% 10% 49% 28% 51+ 30% 13% 37% 19%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 13% 9% 41% 37% 36-50 25% 14% 42% 18% Petro Poroshenko 98% 2%

18-35 22% 11% 45% 22% Undecided 16% 6% 29% 49%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 17 If Anatoliy Hrytsenko and Yulia Tymoshenko made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote? Anatoliy Hrytsenko Yulia Tymoshenko Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer (Disaggregated by first round choice) Nationwide 21% 23% 35% 21% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 99% <1% West 31% 23% 22% 24% Petro Poroshenko 40% 11% 30% 20%

Center 22% 24% 34% 20% Andriy Sadovyi 35% 18% 25% 22%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 30% 13% 26% 31% East 15% 14% 45% 26% Oleh Lyashko 26% 27% 30% 17% South 14% 27% 42% 17% Oleksandr Shevchenko 25% 9% 39% 27%

Yuriy Boyko 17% 14% 49% 20%

Yevheniy Muraiev 12% 14% 58% 16% 51+ 26% 24% 30% 20%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 12% 21% 41% 26% 36-50 22% 23% 34% 21% Yulia Tymoshenko 98% 2%

18-35 13% 21% 42% 24% Undecided 14% 12% 20% 53%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 18 If Yulia Tymoshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote?

Yulia Tymoshenko Volodymyr Zelenskyi Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

(Disaggregated by first round choice) Nationwide 24% 23% 33% 21% Yulia Tymoshenko 97% <1%2% Center 26% 25% 30% 19% Oleh Lyashko 32% 21% 30% 17%

South 25% 22% 38% 14% Andriy Sadovyi 24% 25% 25% 27%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 21% 27% 30% 21% West 25% 26% 24% 26%

Yevheniy Muraiev 15% 15% 54% 16% East 14% 15% 47% 25% Petro Poroshenko 15% 22% 41% 22%

Yuriy Boyko 13% 19% 47% 22%

Oleksandr Shevchenko 13% 21% 34% 32% 51+ 28% 15% 35% 22%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 11% 53% 20% 17% 36-50 23% 23% 34% 20% Volodymyr Zelenskyi 97% 3%

18-35 17% 34% 30% 19% Undecided 12% 16% 20% 53%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 19 If Yuriy Boyko and Yulia Tymoshenko made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote?

Yuriy Boyko Yulia Tymoshenko Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

(Disaggregated by first round choice) Nationwide 14% 28% 38% 20% Yuriy Boyko 97% 3%

East 26% 12% 39% 23% Yevheniy Muraiev 40% 10% 36% 14%

Oleh Lyashko 34% South 18% 26% 41% 15% 11% 38% 17%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 11% 22% 47% 20% Center 12% 29% 39% 20% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 9% 32% 41% 18%

West 8% 37% 33% 23% Oleksandr Shevchenko 8% 14% 45% 33%

Petro Poroshenko 7% 23% 51% 19%

Andriy Sadovyi 6% 33% 39% 22% 51+ 19% 31% 31% 19% Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 4% 29% 40% 28% 36-50 14% 27% 40% 20% Yulia Tymoshenko 1% 97% 2%

18-35 9% 24% 45% 22% Undecided 10% 15% 25% 50%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20 If Yulia Tymoshenko and Andriy Sadovyi made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote?

Yulia Tymoshenko Andriy Sadovyi Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

(Disaggregated by first round choice) Nationwide 25% 15% 38% 22% Yulia Tymoshenko 98% 2%

South 28% 9% 46% 17% Oleh Lyashko 33% 17% 31% 19%

Center 28% 15% 37% 20% Volodymyr Zelenskyi 19% 13% 44% 24%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 18% 31% 32% 19% West 24% 27% 24% 25% Yevheniy Muraiev 16% 5% 66% 13% East 16% 7% 50% 27% Oleksandr Shevchenko 14% 18% 38% 29%

Yuriy Boyko 14% 10% 52% 23%

Petro Poroshenko 14% 39% 32% 16% 51+ 28% 14% 36% 22% Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 13% 25% 33% 30% 36-50 24% 20% 38% 18% Andriy Sadovyi 100%

18-35 22% 13% 41% 24% Undecided 15% 10% 23% 52%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 21 If Sviatoslav Vakarchuk and Yulia Tymoshenko made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote?

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk Yulia Tymoshenko Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

Nationwide 18% 26% 35% 21% (Disaggregated by first round choice)

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 92% 8% West 29% 25% 22% 23% Volodymyr Zelenskyi 39% 17% 29% 16%

Center 19% 28% 33% 20% Andriy Sadovyi 38% 20% 19% 23%

South 12% 29% 44% 15% Petro Poroshenko 36% 16% 30% 17%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 32% 19% 29% 19% East 8% 16% 49% 26% Oleksandr Shevchenko 18% 14% 42% 25%

Oleh Lyashko 13% 34% 30% 23%

Yevheniy Muraiev 18-35 23% 21% 35% 21% 10% 16% 61% 13%

Yuriy Boyko 10% 17% 52% 22% 36-50 19% 24% 37% 19% Yulia Tymoshenko 1% 98% 1%

51+ 14% 30% 34% 22% Undecided 12% 14% 21% 54%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 22 If Anatoliy Hrytsenko and Petro Poroshenko made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote?

Anatoliy Hrytsenko Petro Poroshenko Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

(Disaggregated by first round choice) Nationwide 27% 11% 38% 24%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 99% 1% West 35% 17% 23% 25% Andriy Sadovyi 45% 6% 25% 24%

Center 29% 12% 36% 24% Yulia Tymoshenko 42% 5% 30% 23%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 39% 9% 27% 24% South 22% 7% 51% 19%

Oleh Lyashko 35% 2% 39% 23% East 18% 9% 46% 27% Oleksandr Shevchenko 25% 9% 35% 31%

Yuriy Boyko 24% 2% 51% 23%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 22% 4% 49% 25% 51+ 32% 11% 34% 23%

Yevheniy Muraiev 20% 2% 67% 10% 36-50 27% 14% 37% 22% Petro Poroshenko 4% 93% 3%

18-35 20% 11% 44% 26% Undecided 20% 4% 20% 56%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 23 If Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote?

Petro Poroshenko Volodymyr Zelenskyi Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

(Disaggregated by first round choice) Nationwide 14% 29% 36% 21% Petro Poroshenko 96% 2%2% West 21% 31% 22% 25% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 14% 30% 35% 21%

Center 12% 33% 34% 21% Andriy Sadovyi 12% 44% 23% 21%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 11% 51% 20% 18% East 11% 17% 47% 25% Oleksandr Shevchenko 7% 25% 32% 36% South 10% 28% 46% 16% Yulia Tymoshenko 7% 40% 33% 21%

Oleh Lyashko 5% 33% 39% 23%

Yuriy Boyko 4% 21% 54% 21% 51+ 14% 21% 40% 24% Yevheniy Muraiev 4% 22% 60% 14% 36-50 16% 29% 36% 19% Volodymyr Zelenskyi 97% 3%

18-35 11% 39% 30% 20% Undecided 8% 19% 22% 52%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 24 If Yuriy Boyko and Petro Poroshenko made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote? Yuriy Boyko Petro Poroshenko Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer (Disaggregated by first round choice) Nationwide 18% 18% 41% 23% Yuriy Boyko 95% 5%

East 29% 10% 37% 23% Yevheniy Muraiev 44% 2% 39% 16%

Oleh Lyashko 22% 12% 48% 19% South 25% 10% 47% 18% Volodymyr Zelenskyi 20% 5% 56% 19% Center 14% 16% 47% 23% Yulia Tymoshenko 14% 13% 45% 28%

West 9% 33% 32% 27% Andriy Sadovyi 12% 31% 35% 22%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 10% 23% 49% 17%

Oleksandr Shevchenko 9% 11% 42% 37% 51+ 22% 17% 37% 23% Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 5% 25% 42% 28% 36-50 17% 21% 43% 20% Petro Poroshenko 98% 2%

18-35 13% 16% 46% 25% Undecided 12% 11% 25% 52%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 25 If Petro Poroshenko and Andriy Sadovyi made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote? Petro Poroshenko Andriy Sadovyi Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

(Disaggregated by first round choice) Nationwide 13% 18% 45% 24% Petro Poroshenko 97% 3% West 20% 28% 26% 26% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 7% 34% 40% 19%

Center 12% 18% 47% 23% Oleksandr Shevchenko 5% 27% 39% 28%

Yulia Tymoshenko 5% 27% 42% 26% East 10% 7% 57% 27% Oleh Lyashko 5% 29% 44% 23% South 8% 16% 56% 21% Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 4% 35% 33% 28%

Yuriy Boyko 3%12% 62% 23%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 3% 20% 55% 22% 51+ 12% 18% 45% 25% Yevheniy Muraiev 2%13% 71% 13% 36-50 15% 21% 44% 20% Andriy Sadovyi 100%

18-35 11% 17% 46% 26% Undecided 8% 12% 29% 52%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 26 If Sviatoslav Vakarchuk and Petro Poroshenko made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote?

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk Petro Poroshenko Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

(Disaggregated by first round choice) Nationwide 22% 12% 42% 24% Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 91% 9% West 33% 19% 23% 26% Andriy Sadovyi 52% 4% 21% 23%

Center 23% 12% 43% 22% Volodymyr Zelenskyi 44% 2% 39% 15%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 32% 10% 36% 21% South 17% 8% 53% 22% Yulia Tymoshenko 32% 5% 39% 24% East 8% 10% 54% 28% Oleh Lyashko 26% 4% 43% 28%

Oleksandr Shevchenko 25% 7% 37% 31%

Yuriy Boyko 14% 2% 61% 23% 18-35 28% 10% 40% 23% Yevheniy Muraiev 13% 4% 66% 17% 36-50 22% 15% 42% 22% Petro Poroshenko 1% 95% 4%

51+ 17% 13% 44% 26% Undecided 13% 8% 26% 53%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 27 Reasons for Candidate Selection When making your decision on whom to vote for in the upcoming presidential elections, currently scheduled for March 31, 2019, which issues influence your vote the most?

First choice Second choice Third choice 39% Military conflict in the Donbas 11% 11% 16% Corruption 21% 13% 11% Economy 20% 17% 10% Communal housing payments, utilities, tariffs, etc. 14% 19% 7% Social benefits 13% 15% 6% Government incompetence 5% 10% 4% Foreign policy 7% 7% 2% Russian presence in Crimea 5% 3% 1% Other 1% 1% 3% Difficult to answer/No answer 3% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 29 When making your decision on whom to vote for in the upcoming presidential elections, currently scheduled for March 31, 2019, which issues influence your vote the most? (First choice; disaggregated by age, region)

18-35 36-50 51+ West Center South East

Military conflict in the Donbas 39% 41% 38% 40% 44% 37% 33%

Corruption 16% 17% 16% 21% 18% 14% 9%

Economy 12% 12% 11% 12% 11% 10% 12%

Communal housing payments, utilities, tariffs, etc. 9% 8% 12% 8% 9% 13% 13%

Social benefits 6% 4% 10% 6% 5% 10% 9%

Government incompetence 5% 7% 5% 4% 6% 5% 8%

Foreign policy 5% 4% 4% 1% 3% 8% 7%

Russian presence in Crimea 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2%

Other 1% - 1% 1% - 1% 1%

Difficult to answer/No answer 3% 4% 2% 3% 2% 1% 7% 30 When making your decision on whom to vote for in the upcoming presidential elections, currently scheduled for March 2019, which issue influences your vote the most?

(First choice; disaggregated by first choice in presidential election)

Undecided

Yuriy Boyko Boyko Yuriy

Oleh Lyashko Oleh

Andriy Sadovyi Andriy

Would not vote not Would

Yevheniy Muraiev Yevheniy

Petro Poroshenko Petro

Yulia Tymoshenko Yulia

Anatoliy Hrytsenko Hrytsenko Anatoliy

Volodymyr Zelenskyi Zelenskyi Volodymyr

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk Vakarchuk Sviatoslav Oleksandr Shevchenko Oleksandr Military conflict in the Donbas 36% 35% 53% 35% 37% 37% 55% 42% 40% 25% 31% 41%

Corruption 16% 30% 13% 19% 18% 12% 8% 23% 19% 20% 14% 16%

Economy 13% 11% 9% 12% 11% 12% 13% 12% 12% 16% 9% 12%

Communal housing payments, utilities, tariffs, etc. 14% 7% 7% 8% 9% 13% 6% 2% 12% 13% 10% 13%

Social benefits 8% 7% 7% 6% 12% 11% 3% 10% 9% 2% 8% 5%

Government incompetence 5% 4% 5% 8% 6% 6% 3% 6% 3% 10% 9% 3%

Foreign policy 5% 2% 3% 6% 4% 6% 10% 4% 2% 4% 3% 4%

Russian presence in Crimea 2% 4% 3% 4% 1% 3% 3% 2% 2% 5% 1% 2%

Other - - - 1% 1% - - - 1% 2% 1% 1%

Difficult to answer/No answer 1% - 1% 3% 1% - - - - 4% 12% 5%

31 Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on the following issues?

Defending Combatting Improving social Improving the Ukraine’s corruption protection for economy territorial within state the poor integrity bodies

Yulia Tymoshenko 17% 15% 11% 12%

Yuriy Boyko 9% 8% 6% 6%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 6% 8% 6% 8%

Petro Poroshenko 8% 6% 10% 5%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 5% 6% 11% 6%

Oleh Lyashko 5% 7% 5% 5%

Andriy Sadovyi 2% 2% 2% 2%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 2% 3% 2% 3%

Other 7% 6% 7% 7%

None of them 25% 26% 26% 32%

Difficult to answer/No answer 13% 13% 14% 15%

32 Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on improving the economy? (Disaggregated by age, region)

18-35 36-50 51+ West Center South East

Yulia Tymoshenko 15% 17% 19% 18% 20% 18% 11%

Yuriy Boyko 5% 7% 13% 4% 8% 11% 17%

Petro Poroshenko 8% 8% 9% 13% 9% 4% 7%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 12% 6% 2% 4% 8% 7% 4%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 3% 5% 7% 8% 6% 3% 4%

Oleh Lyashko 4% 4% 7% 5% 6% 5% 3%

Andriy Sadovyi 2% 4% 2% 4% 2% 1% 2%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 3% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1%

Other 6% 8% 8% 5% 9% 4% 12%

None of them 27% 28% 21% 20% 21% 34% 26%

Difficult to answer/No answer 15% 13% 12% 15% 11% 13% 15%

33 Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on improving the economy?

(Disaggregated by first choice in presidential election)

Oleksandr Oleksandr

Undecided

Yuriy Boyko Boyko Yuriy

Shevchenko

Oleh Lyashko Oleh

Andriy Sadovyi Andriy

Would not votenot Would

Yevheniy Muraiev Yevheniy

Petro Poroshenko Petro

Yulia Tymoshenko Yulia

Anatoliy Hrytsenko Hrytsenko Anatoliy

Volodymyr Zelenskyi Zelenskyi Volodymyr Sviatoslav Vakarchuk Vakarchuk Sviatoslav Yuriy Boyko 91% - 1% 2% - 19% - - 1% 1% 1% 5%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk - 58% - - - - - 2% - - - 1%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko - 2% 64% 1% - - 3% - 1% 4% - 2%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 1% - - 58% - 3% - - - 3% 1% 1%

Oleh Lyashko - 2% 2% 1% 76% 1% - - - 1% - 1%

Petro Poroshenko - 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 81% 2% - 1% - 3%

Andriy Sadovyi 1% 2% 2% - - - - 80% - 3% - 1%

Yulia Tymoshenko 3% 9% 7% 7% 9% 4% 4% 6% 94% 6% 1% 8%

Other 2% - 2% 1% 1% 49% - 2% - 35% 2% 2%

None of them 3% 16% 7% 8% 5% 18% 3% 4% 2% 32% 84% 42%

Difficult to answer/No answer 1% 9% 14% 19% 8% 5% 6% 4% 2% 12% 10% 33%

34 Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on improving social protection for the poor? (Disaggregated by age, region)

18-35 36-50 51+ West Center South East

Yulia Tymoshenko 13% 14% 18% 14% 19% 16% 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 15% 9% 3% 7% 10% 10% 4%

Yuriy Boyko 4% 6% 12% 3% 7% 10% 17%

Oleh Lyashko 5% 6% 9% 8% 7% 8% 3%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 4% 5% 8% 10% 6% 3% 5%

Petro Poroshenko 4% 7% 6% 8% 7% 3% 4%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 5% 2% 2% 5% 3% 1% 1%

Andriy Sadovyi 2% 3% 2% 4% 3% 1% 2%

Other 5% 8% 7% 4% 8% 3% 11%

None of them 28% 29% 22% 21% 22% 33% 29%

Difficult to answer/No answer 14% 12% 13% 17% 10% 11% 17%

35 Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on improving social protection for the poor?

(Disaggregated by first choice in presidential election)

Oleksandr Oleksandr

Undecided

Yuriy Boyko Boyko Yuriy

Shevchenko

Oleh Lyashko Oleh

Andriy Sadovyi Andriy

Would not votenot Would

Yevheniy Muraiev Yevheniy

Petro Poroshenko Petro

Yulia Tymoshenko Yulia

Anatoliy Hrytsenko Hrytsenko Anatoliy

Volodymyr Zelenskyi Volodymyr Sviatoslav Vakarchuk Vakarchuk Sviatoslav Yuriy Boyko 85% - 2% 1% - 19% - - 1% - 1% 4%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk - 73% 2% 3% - - 2% 4% 1% 1% - 1%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1% 2% 63% - 1% - 4% - 2% 6% - 2%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 2% 2% 2% 67% 2% 1% 1% 4% 2% 3% 2% 3%

Oleh Lyashko 1% 4% 4% 3% 82% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 1% 3%

Petro Poroshenko - 2% 2% - - 59% 2% - - - 2%

Andriy Sadovyi 1% 4% 1% 1% - - 2% 72% - 4% - -

Yulia Tymoshenko 3% 7% 6% 3% 2% 4% 6% 4% 85% 6% - 9%

Other 2% - 1% 1% - 44% 1% - - 31% 2% 3%

None of them 3% 2% 7% 7% 4% 22% 10% 8% 3% 34% 84% 43%

Difficult to answer/No answer 3% 5% 11% 13% 9% 8% 12% 4% 4% 10% 10% 30%

36 Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity? (Disaggregated by age, region)

18-35 36-50 51+ West Center South East

Yulia Tymoshenko 10% 11% 12% 10% 13% 11% 7%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 8% 10% 13% 18% 11% 5% 7%

Petro Poroshenko 10% 10% 11% 13% 11% 9% 8%

Yuriy Boyko 3% 4% 10% 2% 5% 8% 13%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 12% 6% 2% 4% 7% 9% 3%

Oleh Lyashko 3% 4% 7% 7% 5% 5% 2%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%

Andriy Sadovyi 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2%

Other 5% 9% 6% 5% 8% 4% 11%

None of them 29% 28% 22% 19% 24% 33% 27%

Difficult to answer/No answer 16% 13% 15% 18% 12% 13% 18%

37 Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity?

(Disaggregated by first choice in presidential election)

Oleksandr Oleksandr

Undecided

Yuriy Boyko Boyko Yuriy

Shevchenko

Oleh Lyashko Oleh

Andriy Sadovyi Andriy

Would not votenot Would

Yevheniy Muraiev Yevheniy

Petro Poroshenko Petro

Yulia Tymoshenko Yulia

Anatoliy Hrytsenko Hrytsenko Anatoliy

Volodymyr Zelenskyi Zelenskyi Volodymyr Sviatoslav Vakarchuk Vakarchuk Sviatoslav Yuriy Boyko 72% - 1% 1% 1% 9% - - 1% - 1% 2%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk - 55% 1% 1% - - 1% 4% - 1% - -

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 4% 13% 79% 5% 4% 6% 5% 14% 7% 6% 2% 9%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi - 5% 1% 56% 2% - - - 1% 4% 1% 1%

Oleh Lyashko 1% - 2% 1% 66% 1% - - 3% 6% - 2%

Petro Poroshenko 2% 4% 2% 3% 1% 3% 81% 4% 3% 9% 1% 8%

Andriy Sadovyi 1% - - - 1% - - 61% - - - -

Yulia Tymoshenko 2% - 1% - 3% 4% 2% - 72% 4% - 2%

Other 2% - 1% 1% - 45% - - 1% 28% 2% 3%

None of them 6% 9% 6% 14% 7% 27% 3% 4% 4% 30% 83% 39%

Difficult to answer/No answer 9% 15% 4% 17% 15% 5% 6% 12% 9% 12% 10% 34%

38 Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on combatting corruption within state bodies? (Disaggregated by age, region)

18-35 36-50 51+ West Center South East

Yulia Tymoshenko 9% 12% 13% 12% 14% 12% 7%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 15% 8% 3% 6% 9% 10% 5%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 4% 6% 8% 8% 8% 3% 5%

Yuriy Boyko 2% 4% 9% 2% 4% 6% 12%

Oleh Lyashko 3% 4% 7% 5% 6% 6% 3%

Petro Poroshenko 4% 6% 6% 7% 5% 4% 5%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 5% 2% 2% 5% 3% 1% 2%

Andriy Sadovyi 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2%

Other 5% 8% 7% 6% 7% 4% 11%

None of them 34% 33% 29% 28% 29% 39% 34%

Difficult to answer/No answer 16% 14% 14% 19% 12% 13% 17%

39 Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on combatting corruption within state bodies?

(Disaggregated by first choice in presidential election)

Oleksandr Oleksandr

Undecided

Yuriy Boyko Boyko Yuriy

Shevchenko

Oleh Lyashko Oleh

Andriy Sadovyi Andriy

Would not votenot Would

Yevheniy Muraiev Yevheniy

Petro Poroshenko Petro

Yulia Tymoshenko Yulia

Anatoliy Hrytsenko Hrytsenko Anatoliy

Volodymyr Zelenskyi Volodymyr Sviatoslav Vakarchuk Vakarchuk Sviatoslav Yuriy Boyko 65% - 1% - - 8% 1% - - - 1% 1%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 1% 64% 4% 1% - - 4% 2% 1% 3% - 1%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1% 2% 64% 1% 1% - 5% 4% 2% 4% - 3%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 2% 4% 1% 68% 1% 4% 1% 6% 1% 4% 1% 2%

Oleh Lyashko - - 3% 1% 70% 1% 1% - 2% 4% - 2%

Petro Poroshenko - - 1% - 1% 1% 54% 2% 1% - - 1%

Andriy Sadovyi 1% - 2% - 1% 1% 1% 52% 1% 3% 1% 1%

Yulia Tymoshenko 2% 2% 2% 1% 7% 1% 2% 2% 75% 6% - 1%

Other 2% - 2% - - 42% - 4% - 31% 2% 4%

None of them 15% 16% 13% 12% 10% 31% 16% 12% 9% 38% 85% 50%

Difficult to answer/No answer 11% 13% 7% 15% 10% 10% 14% 16% 8% 6% 10% 31%

40 Expectations of Elections Do you believe that the upcoming presidential elections, currently scheduled for March 31, 2019, will be free and fair?

4% 16%

20% Completely free and fair Somewhat free and fair Somewhat not free and fair

22% Not free and fair at all Difficult to answer/No answer

38%

42 Do you believe that the upcoming presidential elections, currently scheduled for March 31, 2019, will be free and fair? (Disaggregated by first choice in presidential election)

Completely free and fair Somewhat free and fair Somewhat not free and fair Completely not free and fair Difficult to answer/No answer

Petro Poroshenko 17% 49% 18% 1% 14%

Andriy Sadovyi 4% 34% 39% 13% 10%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1% 31% 35% 15% 19%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 10% 20% 40% 13% 18%

Oleksandr Shevchenko 27% 42% 22% 9%

Yulia Tymoshenko 3% 23% 43% 14% 16%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 3% 20% 42% 21% 14%

Oleh Lyashko 4% 17% 45% 19% 16%

Yevheniy Muraiev 1% 14% 46% 30% 9%

Yuriy Boyko 2% 11% 47% 29% 11%

Undecided 2% 14% 40% 20% 24%

Would not vote 6% 30% 50% 14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

43 Do you anticipate street violence in the run-up to the March 31, 2019 presidential elections?

24% The possibility of street violence is 20% very high The possibility of street violence is somewhat high The possibility of street violence is somewhat low The possibility of street violence is 20% very low Difficult to answer/No answer 31%

44 Do you anticipate street violence in the run-up to the March 31, 2019 presidential elections? (Disaggregated by first choice in presidential election)

The possibility of street violence is very high The possibility of street violence is somewhat high The possibility of street violence is somewhat low The possibility of street violence is very low Difficult to answer/No answer

Oleksandr Shevchenko 5% 27% 40% 17% 11%

Yevheniy Muraiev 5% 26% 36% 10% 24%

Yuriy Boyko 5% 25% 26% 17% 26%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 7% 20% 34% 23% 16%

Yulia Tymoshenko 6% 21% 31% 21% 21%

Oleh Lyashko 5% 22% 29% 20% 25%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 6% 15% 30% 26% 23%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 3% 14% 34% 27% 22%

Petro Poroshenko 2% 12% 42% 29% 15%

Andriy Sadovyi 9% 56% 19% 16%

Undecided 4% 22% 25% 14% 35%

Would not vote 7% 17% 27% 20% 28%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 45 Do you anticipate street violence in the aftermath of the March 31, 2019 presidential elections?

6% The possibility of street violence is 26% very high The possibility of street violence is 24% somewhat high The possibility of street violence is somewhat low The possibility of street violence is very low

18% Difficult to answer/No answer

26%

46 Do you anticipate street violence in the aftermath of the March 31, 2019 presidential elections? (Disaggregated by first choice in presidential election)

Yevheniy Muraiev 6% 35% 20% 11% 28%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 8% 31% 28% 16% 18%

Yuriy Boyko 6% 30% 23% 16% 25%

Oleksandr Shevchenko 4% 26% 33% 21% 16%

Oleh Lyashko 8% 23% 24% 17% 29%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 6% 23% 22% 24% 25%

Yulia Tymoshenko 6% 22% 31% 18% 23%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 5% 19% 26% 31% 19%

Andriy Sadovyi 2% 19% 34% 28% 18%

Petro Poroshenko 2% 16% 40% 26% 16%

Undecided 5% 22% 23% 14% 37%

Would not vote 9% 23% 23% 14% 31%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 47 Do you anticipate street violence…

… in the run-up to the March 2019 …in the aftermath of the March 2019 presidential elections? presidential elections? (Disaggregated by belief that the presidential elections will be free and fair)

Not free and fair at all Not free and fair at all 13% 22% 24% 21% 20% 14% 27% 21% 16% 21% (n=537) (n=537)

Somewhat not free and Somewhat not free and 3% 27% 37% 16% 18% 5% 31% 32% 13% 19% fair (n=915) fair (n=915)

Somewhat free and fair Somewhat free and fair 2%18% 39% 30% 12% 2%21% 34% 28% 15% (n=473) (n=473)

Completely free and fair Completely free and fair 9%6% 30% 49% 6% 6%7% 30% 48% 9% (n=86) (n=86)

48 Parliamentary Elections: October 27, 2019 Do you intend to vote in the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2019?

15%

28% Definitely yes

Somewhat yes 13% Somewhat no

Definitely no 4% Difficult to answer/No answer

40%

50 If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the election, for which political party would you vote? (All respondents) Batkivshchyna 14% Sluha Narodu 8% BPP Solidarnist 8% Opposition Platform Za Zhyttia 7% Civic Position 6% Radical Party 6% Nashy 3% UKROP 3% Samopomich 3% Opposition Bloc 1% OSNOVA 1% Svoboda 1% Justice 1% Agrarian Party of Ukraine 1% Narodnyi Front <1% Vidrodzhennia <1% Other 4% I would not vote 15% Difficult to answer/No answer 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% *In this survey, IRI replaced “Za Zhyttia” with the new political association, “Opposition Platform - Za Zhyttia” with Boyko mentioned among the leaders. The leaders of Opposition Bloc were listed as Novinskiy and Vilkul. 51 If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the election, for which political party would you vote? (Among likely voters: n=1,631)

Batkivshchyna 17% Sluha Narodu 11% BPP Solidarnist 10% Opposition Platform Za Zhyttia 8% Civic Position 8% Radical Party 7% UKROP 4% Samopomich 3% Nashy 3% OSNOVA 1% Svoboda 1% Opposition Bloc 1% Justice 1% Narodnyi Front 1% Agrarian Party of Ukraine <1% Vidrodzhennia <1% Other 4% Difficult to answer/No answer 18% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% *In this survey, IRI replaced “Za Zhyttia” with the new political association, “Opposition Platform - Za Zhyttia” with Boyko mentioned among the leaders. The leaders of Opposition Bloc were listed as Novinskiy and Vilkul. 52 Introduction of Martial Law To what extent do you support or oppose the government’s decision to introduce a thirty-day period of martial law in Ukraine, beginning effective November 28, 2018?

9% 13%

14% Completely support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Completely oppose Difficult to answer/No answer 37% 27%

54 To what extent do you support or oppose the government’s decision to introduce a thirty-day period of martial law in Ukraine, beginning effective November 28, 2018? (Disaggregated by political party preference)

Completely support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Completely oppose Difficult to answer/No answer

BPP Solidarnist 38% 30% 16% 7% 9%

Samopomich 10% 33% 31% 18% 9%

UKROP 7% 23% 36% 24% 9%

Civic Position 13% 13% 34% 26% 14%

Batkivshchyna 8% 14% 31% 35% 12%

Radical Party 5% 16% 30% 30% 18%

Sluha Narodu 5% 11% 33% 38% 12%

Opposition Platform 1% 9% 29% 54% 7%

Nashy 1% 6% 23% 63% 7%

Undecided 5% 13% 27% 37% 18%

Would not vote 4% 6% 20% 56% 13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 55 In your opinion, did the introduction of martial law in Ukraine on November 28, 2018 serve the interests of Ukraine or did it represent a political decision aimed at giving some politicians an advantage?

16% 16% It’s a decision that serves the interests of Ukraine It’s a political decision aimed at giving 9% some politicians an advantage Both equally

Neither

17% 42% Difficult to answer/No answer

56 In your opinion, did the introduction of martial law in Ukraine on November 28, 2018 serve the interests of Ukraine or did it represent a political decision aimed at giving some politicians an advantage? (Disaggregated by political party preference) It's a decision that serves the interests of Ukraine It's a political decision aimed at giving some politicians an advantage Both equally Neither Difficult to answer/No answer BPP Solidarnist 65% 8% 14% 3% 10% Samopomich 23% 28% 25% 6% 19% Civic Position 19% 41% 17% 8% 15% Batkivshchyna 15% 47% 12% 10% 17% Radical Party 13% 39% 23% 8% 17% UKROP 12% 42% 27% 6% 14% Sluha Narodu 11% 44% 23% 8% 14% Nashy 5% 53% 20% 11% 11% Opposition Platform 4% 61% 20% 8% 7%

Undecided 11% 40% 17% 10% 22% Would not vote 6% 49% 15% 13% 18%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 57 In your opinion, did the introduction of martial law in Ukraine on November 28, 2018 serve the interests of Ukraine or did it represent a political decision aimed at giving some politicians an advantage? It’s a decision that serves the interests of Ukraine It’s a political decision aimed at giving some politicians an advantage Both equally Neither Difficult to answer/No answer

Support the introduction of martial 57% 11% 23% 3% 6% law (n=540)

Don't support the introduction of 3% 59% 15% 12% 12% martial law (n=1,548)

58 To what extent did the introduction of martial law in Ukraine have any direct, negative impact on your day-to-day (“everyday”) life?

12%

It has not negatively affected my 6% everyday life at all

It has somewhat affected my everyday life in a negative manner

It has greatly affected my everyday 20% life in a negative manner 62% Difficult to answer/No answer

59 To what extent has your attitude towards the following politicians changed after the introduction of martial law in Ukraine?

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Hasn’t changed Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Difficult to answer/No answer

Petro Poroshenko 3% 6% 51% 18% 18% 3%

Yuliya Tymoshenko 2% 6% 65% 13% 10% 4%

Oleh Lyashko 2%6% 66% 12% 10% 5%

Volodymyr Hroisman 1% 3% 63% 14% 14% 5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

60 National Mood Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction?

Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer/No answer

80% 76% 72% 71% 72% 72% 71% 70% 71% 71% 70% 71% 69% 68% 70% 68% 67% 70% 66% 64%

60% 51% 48% 50%

40% 34% 29% 30% 20% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17% 16% 20% 16% 16% 15% 15% 13% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% 20% 18% 17% 16% 15% 15% 14% 10% 14% 15% 15% 13% 13% 14% 14% 15% 14% 13% 13% 11% 11%

62 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? (Disaggregated by political party preference)

Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer/No answer

BPP Solidarnist 70% 21% 9%

Samopomich 27% 50% 23%

Civic Position 20% 69% 12%

UKROP 19% 63% 18%

Batkivshchyna 12% 77% 11%

Sluha Narodu 10% 73% 17%

Radical Party 5% 82% 13%

Opposition Platform 4% 90% 5%

Nashy 3% 92% 6%

Would not vote 5% 84% 11%

Undecided 12% 67% 21%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 63 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation of your household changed?

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Difficult to answer/No answer

December 2018 <1% 5% 33% 34% 23% 3% September 2018 <1% 8% 29% 33% 28% 2% June 2018 <1% 9% 29% 27% 32% 2% March 2018 <1% 10% 31% 31% 27% 1% December 2017 <1% 6% 26% 31% 33% 2% September 2017 <1% 5% 27% 32% 34% 2% June 2017 <1% 6% 26% 31% 34% 2% April 2017 <1% 3% 23% 34% 37% 2% September 2016 <1% 2% 23% 37% 36% 2% June 2016 2% 18% 38% 40% 2% February 2016 1% 15% 36% 47% 1% November 2015 2% 20% 36% 40% 2% September 2015 1%2% 18% 34% 45% 1% July 2015 1% 14% 29% 55% 1% September 2014 2% 19% 37% 40% 2% April 2014 1% 4% 37% 34% 22% 3% March 2014 3% 46% 29% 18% 3% February 2014 1% 8% 44% 31% 14% 2% September 2013 1% 9% 41% 30% 17% 2% May 2013 1% 8% 46% 30% 14% 1% September 2012 1% 14% 37% 27% 15% 5% May 2012 9% 45% 30% 13% 3% March 2012 1% 6% 39% 34% 18% 3% November 2011 1% 6% 37% 36% 18% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 64 Assessment of Ukrainian Authorities’ Performance Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko*?

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer

December 2018 3% 14% 29% 48% 6% September 2018 3% 13% 29% 50% 5% June 2018 2% 12% 30% 50% 6% March 2018 3% 9% 31% 50% 7% December 2017 2% 12% 31% 46% 8% September 2017 2% 13% 38% 41% 6% June 2017 2% 15% 32% 43% 8% April 2017 1% 16% 33% 43% 6% September 2016 3% 17% 30% 44% 7% June 2016 3% 16% 36% 37% 9% February 2016 2% 15% 32% 43% 8% November 2015 3% 22% 28% 42% 6% September 2015 4% 20% 29% 40% 6% July 2015 3% 21% 34% 33% 8% September 2014 15% 40% 22% 13% 10% April 2014 11% 36% 19% 24% 11% March 2014 9% 33% 20% 27% 11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

*Petro Poroshenko has been President of Ukraine since June 2014. Previous IRI polling data reflects attitudes toward the previous president. 66 Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the Cabinet of Ministers under Volodymyr Hroisman?*

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer

December 2018 1% 14% 28% 50% 7% September 2018 2% 16% 26% 50% 6% June 2018 2% 17% 29% 45% 8% March 2018 3% 14% 30% 43% 9% December 2017 2% 14% 28% 49% 8% September 2017 2% 15% 34% 42% 7% June 2017 2% 13% 32% 46% 7% April 2017 1% 14% 30% 49% 6% September 2016 1% 12% 28% 51% 8% June 2016 1% 19% 30% 29% 21% February 2016 1% 6% 25% 64% 4% November 2015 1% 11% 25% 57% 5% September 2015 2% 11% 29% 54% 5% July 2015 1% 10% 32% 52% 6% September 2014 13% 35% 27% 15% 10% April 2014 16% 36% 16% 24% 8% March 2014 12% 34% 17% 27% 9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

*Volodymyr Hroisman has been Prime Minister of Ukraine since April 2016. Previous IRI polling data reflects attitudes toward prior prime ministers. 67 Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the Parliament of Ukraine?

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer

December 2018 1%6% 27% 61% 6% September 2018 <1% 7% 25% 64% 5% June 2018 <1% 7% 28% 58% 6% March 2018 1% 5% 27% 61% 6% December 2017 1% 7% 27% 59% 6% September 2017 1% 6% 33% 55% 5% June 2017 1%6% 31% 57% 5% April 2017 <1% 7% 28% 60% 4% September 2016 <1% 7% 29% 58% 5% June 2016 1% 9% 35% 46% 9% February 2016 5% 29% 59% 6% November 2015 1% 10% 31% 52% 7% September 2015 <1% 10% 35% 48% 6% July 2015 <1% 9% 35% 49% 6% September 2014 3% 14% 36% 37% 9% April 2014 6% 33% 24% 26% 11% March 2014 6% 32% 24% 26% 11% February 2014 2% 11% 30% 50% 8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 68 What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government? Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Have not heard the name Difficult to answer/No answer

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 12% 25% 19% 22% 1% 22%

Svyatoslav Vakarchuk 7% 26% 18% 22% 2% 25%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 6% 21% 26% 26% 4% 17%

Yulia Tymoshenko 10% 16% 23% 40% 10%

Andriy Sadovyi 3% 17% 24% 34% 4% 17%

Vitaliy Klychko 1% 16% 27% 37% 2% 17%

Oleh Lyashko 6% 11% 27% 45% 1% 11%

Yuriy Boyko 5% 11% 19% 48% 5% 12%

Petro Poroshenko 4% 12% 25% 52% 1% 6%

Volodymyr Hroisman 1% 14% 29% 47% 1% 8% Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 1% 11% 22% 35% 11% 21%

Oleksandr Turchynov 1% 9% 23% 55% 2% 10%

Oleksandr Vilkul 2% 8% 17% 42% 18% 13% Andriy Parubiy 1% 9% 26% 52% 3% 10%

Arsen Avakov 1% 9% 23% 52% 5% 11%

Oleh Tyahnybok 2% 7% 23% 52% 2% 14% Viktor Medvedchuk 1% 8% 16% 54% 9% 13%

Ruslan Koshulynskyi 2% 6% 14% 27% 37% 14% Arseniy Yatsenyuk 1% 5% 21% 63% 1% 9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 69 What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government? (“Very favorable” and “somewhat favorable” combined; disaggregated by age, region)

18-35 36-50 51+ West Center South East

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 51% 38% 26% 39% 43% 32% 27% Svyatoslav Vakarchuk 46% 33% 24% 48% 36% 23% 20% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 20% 27% 31% 38% 29% 17% 17% Yulia Tymoshenko 22% 26% 28% 28% 28% 27% 15% Andriy Sadovyi 20% 23% 19% 32% 22% 12% 11% Vitaliy Klychko 22% 15% 14% 22% 18% 14% 12% Oleh Lyashko 14% 18% 18% 19% 17% 20% 7% Yuriy Boyko 12% 14% 21% 7% 13% 21% 30% Petro Poroshenko 15% 17% 17% 26% 14% 9% 16% Volodymyr Hroisman 15% 17% 15% 23% 15% 8% 14% Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 10% 12% 13% 19% 11% 7% 8% Oleksandr Turchynov 10% 11% 9% 17% 6% 4% 13% Oleksandr Vilkul 7% 10% 12% 4% 9% 18% 9% Andriy Parubiy 9% 11% 9% 19% 5% 3% 14% Arsen Avakov 10% 10% 9% 11% 6% 7% 19% Oleh Tyahnybok 9% 10% 9% 16% 11% 3% 6% Viktor Medvedchuk 6% 9% 10% 2% 4% 14% 19% Ruslan Koshulynskyi 6% 9% 9% 16% 8% 2% 4% Arseniy Yatsenyuk 7% 6% 6% 11% 5% 2% 8% 70 Views on Issues Which three of the following issues are the most important for Ukraine? (Multiple responses permitted) Military conflict in Donbas 49% Corruption within the state bodies 45% Low industry production 25% Growth of prices 24% Government incompetence 23% Political instability 20% Unemployment 17% Social protection for the poor 17% Relations with Russia 15% Hryvnia devaluation 13% Healthcare 10% Russian presence in the Crimea 10% Crime 7% Delay in salary/pension payments 5% Rights to land ownership 4% Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water 4% Environment 2% Russian language status 2% Other 2% Difficult to answer/No answer 2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 72 Which three of the following issues are the most important for you personally? (Multiple responses permitted) Growth of prices 62% Healthcare 28% Social protection for the poor 26% Unemployment 26% Hryvnia devaluation 23% Military conflict in Donbas 20% Corruption within the state bodies 17% Low industry production 14% Government incompetence 11% Delay in salary/pension payments 11% Political instability 9% Crime 9% Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water 8% Rights to land ownership 7% Relations with Russia 5% Environment 5% Russian presence in the Crimea 2% Russian language status 2% Other 5% Difficult to answer/No answer 2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 73 Foreign Policy Preferences How do you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries?

Very warm Warm Neutral Cold Very cold Difficult to answer/No answer

European Union 6% 40% 34% 11% 2% 6%

United States 4% 32% 38% 16% 4% 6%

Russia 1% 13% 26% 28% 26% 6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 75 How do you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries? Warm Cold

European Union United States 54% 60% 51%49%50% 49% 50% 49% 60% 46%48% 47% 47%47% 47% 47%45% 44% 45% 42% 40%41% 41%40%40%39%40%41% 40%40% 38% 37% 38% 38%36% 40% 40% 24%26%26% 22% 16% 20% 11% 12% 13% 13% 10% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 10% 8% 20% 7% 7% 6% 6% 22%24% 9% 8% 19% 20% 18%16% 16% 18%16% 13% 15%15% 13% 10% 15%15% 0% 0%

Russia 66% 61% 59%58%58%56%56% 52%50%51% 51% 52%54% 60% 51% 49%48%48% 45%

40% 31% 22% 19% 17%17% 18% 18%18%19%18%18% 19% 15% 15% 16% 16% 15% 20% 12%

76 If Ukraine could only enter one international economic union, which of the following should it be?

European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan Other Difficult to answer/No answer

December 2018 53% 13% 14% 20% September 2018 54% 14% 16% 16% June 2018 52% 15% 17% 16% March 2018 52% 18% 15% 14% December 2017 50% 16% 10% 24% September 2017 52% 14% 9% 24% June 2017 54% 18% 8% 20% April 2017 53% 18% 14% 15% September 2016 51% 19% 14% 17% June 2016 54% 15% 12% 19% February 2016 55% 15% 14% 15% November 2015 57% 15% 12% 16% September 2015 57% 17% 12% 14% July 2015 55% 14% 12% 20% September 2014 59% 17% 9% 15% April 2014 53% 24% 10% 13% March 2014 52% 27% 6% 14% February 2014 41% 36% 9% 14% September 2013 42% 37% 5% 17% May 2013 40% 37% 5% 18% September 2012 32% 42% 6% 20% May 2012 37% 41% 5% 17% March 2012 36% 43% 4% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

77 If Ukraine could only enter one international economic union, which of the following should it be? (Disaggregated by political party preference)

European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Difficult to answer/No answer

BPP Solidarnist 84% 3% 4% 9%

UKROP 77% 8% 5% 11%

Samopomich 74% 6% 6% 14%

Civic Position 67% 6% 11% 16%

Batkivshchyna 60% 13% 7% 20%

Sluha Narodu 57% 13% 12% 18%

Radical Party 50% 8% 15% 26%

Opposition Platform 26% 40% 21% 13%

Nashy 13% 35% 36% 16%

Undecided 52% 8% 12% 28%

Would not vote 36% 12% 26% 26%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

78 If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote?

Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

December 2018 44% 30% 10% 17% September 2018 45% 31% 8% 15% June 2018 43% 33% 8% 16% March 2018 43% 33% 7% 17% December 2017 37% 26% 12% 26% September 2017 34% 26% 15% 24% June 2017 40% 27% 12% 22% April 2017 46% 27% 12% 14% September 2016 43% 29% 11% 17% June 2016 39% 32% 12% 17% February 2016 45% 30% 10% 16% November 2015 48% 30% 10% 13% September 2015 48% 28% 8% 17% July 2015 41% 30% 14% 15% September 2014 43% 31% 17% 8% April 2014 38% 40% 7% 15% March 2014 34% 43% 9% 13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 79 If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote? (Disaggregated by political party preference) Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

BPP Solidarnist 81% 7% 5% 7%

UKROP 74% 15% 1% 9%

Samopomich 68% 13% 6% 12%

Civic Position 63% 21% 3% 14%

Batkivshchyna 50% 25% 5% 20%

Radical Party 44% 21% 14% 22%

Sluha Narodu 37% 33% 10% 20%

Opposition Platform 16% 66% 7% 10%

Nashy 11% 66% 13% 10%

Undecided 39% 27% 11% 23%

Would not vote 29% 34% 24% 13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 80 Demographics Demographics

Male 45%

Female 55% GENDER 18-35 30%

36-50 27% AGE 51+ 43% Primary/Incomplete secondary 2% General secondary 18% Vocational secondary 40%

Higher/Incomplete higher 38% EDUCATION Dificult to answer/No answer <1% I do not work 44% Private 35% State 16% Public, non-governmental

SECTOR OF SECTOR 1% EMPLOYMENT Dificult to answer/No answer 4% Worker 24% Farmer/Peasant 2% White collar 13% Higher or medium level executive 6% Pensioner (not working) 27% Student 4%

Housewife 7% OCCUPATION Unemployed 5% Self-employed/Entrepreneur 5% Other 5% Dificult to answer/No answer 1%

City 67% TYPE

MENT Village 33% SETTLE- 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 82 Demographics

Ukrainian 47%

Russian 31%

HOME LANGUAGE SPOKEN ATSPOKEN Both, Ukrainian and Russian equally 22% Ukrainian 89% Russian 8% Other 3% NATIONALITY Difficult to answer/No answer 1% Orthodox UPC KP (Kyiv Patriarchate) 37% Orthodox UPC MP (Moscow Patriarchate) 19% Greek Catholic 9% Catholic 1% Protestant <1% Judaism <1%

RELIGION Muslim <1% Atheist 4% I believe in God, but do not belong to any religion 22% Other 2% Difficult to answer/No answer 6% None 97% Member of a political party 1%

Member of an NGO 1% MEMBERSHIP PARTIES, PARTIES, NGO Difficult to answer/No answer 1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 83 Demographics

We need to save money for food 13%

We have enough money for food, but we need to save or borrow 32% money for buying clothes and shoes

We have enough money for food and necessary clothing and shoes, but we need to save or borrow money for other purchases 37% like a good suit, a mobile phone, or a vacuum cleaner

We have enough money for food, clothing, shoes, and other purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchasing 11% more expensive things (e.g. appliances)

FINANCIAL STATUS FINANCIAL We have enough money for food, clothes, shoes, and expensive purchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchases 3% like a car or an apartment

I can buy anything at any time <1%

Difficult to answer/No answer 3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

84 Center for Insights in Survey Research 202.408.9450 | [email protected] www.IRI.org | @IRI_Polls