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Mandera County's 2010- 2030 Population Projections and Their Implications on Human Resources for Health

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Mandera County's 2010- 2030 Population Projections and Their Implications on Human Resources for Health UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI POPULATION STUDIES AND RESEARCH INSTITUTE MANDERA COUNTY’S 2010- 2030 POPULATION PROJECTIONS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS ON HUMAN RESOURCES FOR HEALTH MUNGAI KELVIN GATUHA Q50/81825/2015 A RESEARCH PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN POPULATION STUDIES AT THE POPULATION STUDIES AND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI NOVEMBER, 2019 DECLARATION I hereby declare that this research project is my original work, and that to the best of my knowledge, it has not been presented in this or any other university for an academic degree award. Signature Date …………………………………....... ………………………………….. MUNGAI KELVIN GATUHA Q50/81825/2015 This project has been submitted for examination with our approval as university supervisors. 1. Signature Date ……………………………… ..……………………………… Dr. BONIFACE O. K’OYUGI Population Studies and Research Institute University of Nairobi 2. Signature Date ……………………………… ..……………………………… Dr. GEORGE ODIPO Population Studies and Research Institute University of Nairobi ii DEDICATION I dedicate this work to my entire family without whom, I would not have come this far. Special mention to my mother (Nyakio), father (Mungai) and siblings Paul, Njeri, Ciku, Shiru, and Ngugi who have always supported me in my quest for education. You all made this journey worthwhile and made sure I never lacked. Thank you all for the moral support and understanding during my time in school. May God bless you all abundantly! iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I am grateful to God, the Most Beneficent and The Most Merciful, for having enabled me to study and reach this point of my education life. Without Him, I would not have made it this far. Praise be to the Almighty. I want to express my most heartfelt appreciation to my supervisors Dr. Boniface O. K’oyugi and Dr. George Odipo for their guidance, patience, professional input and critique throughout this research project. Thank you very much. Many thanks too to Mr. Ben Jarabi of the Population Studies and Research Institute for his input especially with the analysis of the data in this research project. Special thanks to the entire Population Studies and Research Institute fraternity: the Director and lecturers, for their guidance provided to me during the entire period of my study. I am also appreciative to the non-teaching staff. Great thanks to my course mates: Hannah Nungari, Jesca Wabwile, Emmily Jeptoo, Teresah Bange and Gedion Matheka. I would also like to thank my friends Peter Thumbi and Robert Kyalo for their unrelenting assistance and advice throughout this entire Masters Education journey. Thank you! Finally, my entire family deserves a special mention for their support, inspiration and critique as I undertook my masters. May God Bless you all. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION........................................................................................................................... ii DEDICATION.............................................................................................................................. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ........................................................................................................... iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................. v LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................... vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................... viii ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................. ix CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 1 1.0 Background of Study ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Problem Statement .................................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Research Questions ................................................................................................................... 6 1.3 General Objective ..................................................................................................................... 6 1.3.1 Specific Research Objectives: .......................................................................................... 6 1.4 Justification ............................................................................................................................... 6 1.5 Scope and Limitations of the Study .......................................................................................... 8 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................ 9 2.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 General Methods of population projections .............................................................................. 9 2.2 Population Projection Using Population Components ............................................................ 11 2.3 Projections for human resources for health ............................................................................ 14 CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ......................................................... 18 3.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 18 3.1 Data sources ............................................................................................................................ 18 3.2 Method for Population Projection ........................................................................................... 19 3.3 Quality of Data Used .............................................................................................................. 21 3.4 Method for Human Resources for Health Projection ............................................................. 25 CHAPTER FOUR: POPULATION PROJECTIONS AND THEIR IMPLICATION ON HUMAN RESOURCES FOR HEALTH .................................................................................. 27 4.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 27 4.1 Component projections ........................................................................................................... 27 v 4.1.1 Fertility Projection Assumptions ................................................................................... 27 4.1.2 Mortality Projection Assumptions ................................................................................. 29 4.1.3 Migration Projection Assumptions ................................................................................ 30 4.2 Population Projections ............................................................................................................ 31 4.2.1 Mandera County Population Projections ....................................................................... 31 4.2.2 Mandera County Human Resources for Health Projections .......................................... 37 CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............. 41 5.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 41 5.1 Summary of Findings .............................................................................................................. 41 5.2 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 42 5.3 Recommendations ................................................................................................................... 43 5.3.1 Recommendation for Policy Makers ............................................................................. 43 5.3.2 Recommendation for Further Research ......................................................................... 44 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................ 45 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 4.1: Projected Total Fertility Rates Assumptions from 2010 to 2030 ................................ 28 Table 4.2: Mandera County's Projected Age Specific Fertility Rates Assumptions from 2010- 2030............................................................................................................................. 28 Table 4.3: Mandera County's Projected Under-Five Mortality Rates Assumptions from 2010- 2030............................................................................................................................. 30 Table 4.4: Formula for projecting population using the Cohort Component Method in Mandera County ......................................................................................................................... 33 Table 4.5: Summary of Mandera County's Projected Population from 2010 to 2030 for both sexes ............................................................................................................................ 34 Table 4.6: Mandera County's Projected Population from 2010 to 2020 for both sexes ............... 35
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