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FSNWG Presentation Sept 2014 Conditions Vs Current Conditions Sept 2015 Sept 2014 September 2015 September September September 2015 IMPROVED: Kenya, Uganda, Sudan DETERIORATED: South Sudan, Djibouti, Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia, Burundi. SAME: Rwanda, Eastern DRC, CAR Current Conditions: Regional Highlights • Crisis and emergency food insecurity remains a concern in parts of DRC, CAR, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, parts of Karamoja, Darfur in Sudan, IDP sites in Somalia; September 2015 September • An estimated 17.9 people may be facing food insecurity in the region. • Dry conditions in pastoral areas of Ethiopia, Djibouti and Sudan are expected to continue till Dec (GHACOF, Aug.). • Conflicts/political tension remains a key driver for food insecurity in the region (e.g South Sudan, Burundi, CAR, eastern DRC and Somalia. • El Nino expected to lead to above average rainfall in some areas leading to improved food security outcomes but also localised flooding but depressed rainfalls in others persisting stressed/ food insecurity conditions General improvement in food security situation in the region. However, some deterioration seen in pastoral areas and an estimated 17.9M people in need of humanitarian assistance. Current Conditions – Burundi Burundi WFP, IPC (priliminary) •Generally food security conditions is good due to the season B harvest. September 2015 September •About 100,000 are considered in food insecurity crisis. •Significant number of farming population have fled to neigboring countries (UNHCR) due to the political crisis •The political crisis negatively affected Economic Activities in the country, particularly the capital Bujumbura. Trade in agricultural comoditities fell by about 50%. •The lean period is expected to start in September, is likely be exacerbated by the negative effects of the current crisis Food security relatively stable due to Season B production though expected to remain stressed to December. Improvements in food security in some areas unlikely to be sustained beyond August due to below average overall harvest following disruptions. Current Conditions – South Sudan South Sudan - FEWSNET • In general, the food security has improved in the country. However, the conflict affected states remain September 2015 September in phase 3 & 4. • In GUN crop conditions are generally favorable, although planted area is well below average •Cereal prices continue to rise well above the five-year average. Sorghum prices increased by 23 and 67 percent in July in Juba and Wau, respectively. •A typical livestock migration due to conflict - inadequate extension services. Reported disease outbreaks in Jonglei, Lakes, and EES. •IPC Analysis has just been concluded awaiting government approval • Continued decline in acute food insecurity due to improved access during the harvest period. Current Conditions – Sudan Sudan - FEWSNET • Below average rainfall (25-80%) countrywide, delayed planting resulting into bellow average area September 2015 September planted. This will most likely lead to below-average production. • Pasture conditions have not regenerated as expected and this will impact overall livestock production •An estimated 52,000 people in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile States face food insecurity. This is attributed to insecurity, disruption of market supplies, and poor rainfall performance •An estimated 211,000 people remained displaced by conflict in Darfur since January 2015. An estimated 52,000 people in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile States face food insecurity Current Conditions – ETHIOPIA ETHIOPI – FEWSNET, WFP • Average rainfall for Jul to Sep. Karan/Karma rains remains below average. This has compounded the September 2015 September poor livestock body conditions and livestock production especially in Afar and Sitti Zones. •High cereal and low Livestock prices and demand will put pressure on poor households in meetin their food needs •Unusual livestock deaths and migration has been reported , particularly in Afar and Somali region. Current Conditions – Djibouti Djibouti Fews Net •About 120,000 are in PC Phase 2 & 3, and expected to persist until end end of Sept, especially in the southern pastoral zone and the Obock region. September 2015 September • The current elongated lean season, pasture, browse and water scarcity may worsen, resulting into sales of livestock at low prices (GHACOF, prediction) •The impact of the failed season reduced household food access, coupled with limited labour opportunities and inadequte humanitarian assistance Crisis levels of food insecurity to continue in 2015 due to consecutive poor seasons. Lean season to be more sever in Southeastern pastoral and Obock areas. Current Conditions - Rwanda Rwanda FEWSNET, WFP September 2015 September • Overall, food security have improved due to the harvest from B season 2015 (As reported in August). • Normal rainfall experienced in the first 10 days of September, succeeding drier than normal conditions in August (El Nino event). • Annual crops are being planted for season A which normally starts in the second half of September, mainly maize, Beans and roots; Current Conditions – DR Congo DRC Preliminary IPC Analysis • From the preliminary IPC, improved food Security being observed in regions where security is not of major September 2015 September concerns. • However, large part of the country is still experiencing chronic food insecurity, especially the East of the country. • The final IPC report will be released by the end of Sept. An estimated 6.5 million people were under crisis and emergency situation until June 2015. Current Conditions – Uganda Uganda IPC, Info trade Uganda • Food security situation in Uganda is generally good due to the first season harvest. However, there still concerns in Karamoja. September 2015 September • Prices of staple food across the country generally increased in major makers. • Most areas with Karamoja are in phase 3 (238,575) and 4 phase 4 (56,370). Though areas cultivated were reported to have increased, crop production was generally below normal. • Pasture and browse condition are still good. However, high prevalence of diseases is affecting livestock production. Food insecurity in Karamoja likely to persist due to delayed harvest until September/October thereby prolonging the lean season. Current Conditions – Somalia SOMALIA FAO, WFP, FSNAU, FEWSNET, • Post Gu (April-June) assessment report indicates worsening FS conditions. • About 855 000 people in phase 3 & 4, September 2015 September particularlly in Banadi; South & North Mudug, Bari, Awdal, Lower Juba, Woqooyi Galbeed • Additional 2.3m people are in phase 2. • 17% Increase in the number in phase 3&4 is attributed to; below average cereal harvests, poor rainfall; trade disruption, conflict and displacement • Off-season harvest expected (3,900 tons) by end of September in Jowhar and River Rind areas. • In some agro-pastoral areas, the food security will improve improved due to Deyr rainfall. Food security situation likely to worsen following below-average GU performance. Rising risks of flooding and damage to crops around the Shabelle and Juba regions. Current Conditions – Kenya KENYA The 2015 LR Assessment Report • General improvement in the food security situation attributed to the on-going harvest, improved milk production and income as result September 2015 September of good MAM rains as well as cross-boarder food (trade) inflow. • However, about 1.1m people are still in phase 3&4, though the number has declined by 31% compared to 2015 SR assessment. • Localized parts northern Isiolo and western Wajir still experiencing food insecurity . Turkana County still remains at very critical, though the situation has notably improved. • Food prices across most urban, pastoral and marginal agricultural markets remains fairly stable. This is due to supplies from harvest and imports. Food security expected to deteriorate through October as a result of below-average production over previous two seasons and uneven rainfall in southeastern and coastal areas. Projected above-average rainfall during October-December could improve food security outcomes over longer term. Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4) Country Pop in IPC phase 3 & 4 Source Burundi 100,000 Preliminary IPC, Aug 2015 CAR 1,268,000 IPC April 2015 Djibouti 120,000 September 2015 September DRC 6,500,000 IPC Dec 2014 – June 2015 Ethiopia 4,505,111 HRD, Aug 2015 Kenya 1,074, 000 KFSSG, Feb 2015 Somalia 855 000 FSNAU, August 2015 South Sudan 2,750,000 IPC, Aug-Sept 2015 projection Uganda 294,945 IPC June 2015 Sudan 1,288,759 IPC, June 2015 TOTAL 17,900,815 Nutrition Update September 2015 September FSNWG Nutrition Sub-Group Eastern and Central African Region September September 2015 Nutrition Update 24th September 2015 Nutrition Update Regional Context September 2015 September September September 2015 In September 2015, 17.9 million people in elevated food insecurity in East and Central Africa INCREASED VULNERABILITY TO 3.6 MILLION CHILDREN UNDER FIVES: SEVERE AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION, FEEDING PRACTICES, MORBIDITY/MORTALITY Nutrition Update Ethiopia Bi annual nutrition surveys (June/July September 2015 September 2015) • Increased GAM rates September September 2015 • Children in 56% of surveyed woredas with GAM above 15% Critical situation for children (based on WHO standards) Nutrition Sub-Group Ethiopia September 2015 September September September 2015 • January to July 2015, 177,748 SAM cases admissions nationwide • July 2015 admissions (31,729 cases) are significantly higher than
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