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Vulnerability Assessment for Cascading Failure in the Highway Traffic System

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Vulnerability Assessment for Cascading Failure in the Highway Traffic System sustainability Article Vulnerability Assessment for Cascading Failure in the Highway Traffic System Han Liu 1 and Jian Wang 2,* 1 School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, No. 73, Huanghe River Road, Nangang District, Harbin 150090, Heilongjiang, China; [email protected] 2 School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, No. 73, Huanghe River Road, Nangang District, Harbin 150090, Heilongjiang, China * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-152-4666-1633 Received: 4 June 2018; Accepted: 2 July 2018; Published: 5 July 2018 Abstract: Vulnerability assessment is of great significance to highway traffic system. As the widespread cascading failure may cause serious damage, factor identification is necessary to improve the security level of highway system. In this paper, the Dematel method is applied to identify the vulnerability priorities of important factors, and a new assessment method for highway system vulnerability is presented by considering system cascading failure. The traffic allocation and reallocation are then optimized under user equilibrium assignment model in different scenarios. Finally, the methodology is applied to the Heilongjiang highway network and the results shows that vulnerable sections in highway networks can be determined efficiently in our proposed process. Keywords: highway traffic system; vulnerability; cascading failure 1. Introduction In China, the highway traffic system provides a comfortable and speedy transport function to all citizens, trade and industry nationwide. However, incidents, such as vehicle crashes, road construction, lane blockages, and extreme weather, can make parts of the highway traffic system impassable and thus lead to widespread cascading failure. Taking the low-temperature frost and snow disaster in southern China in 2008 as an example, highway traffic was hindered in many provinces and direct losses of up to 159.5 billion yuan and 162 lifelines were resulted [1]. Taking the low-temperature frost and snow disaster in southern China in 2008 as an example, highway traffic was hindered in many provinces and direct losses of up to 159.5 billion yuan and 162 lifelines were resulted. In order to implement suitable policy to reduce the serious loss caused by congestion effects and delays, there is a need for an assessment of the highway traffic system vulnerability. The concept of a vulnerable system is first defined as a system that operates with a “reduced level of security that renders it vulnerable to the cumulative effects of a series of moderate disturbances” [2]. Timmerman regards vulnerability as affected degree on system performance caused by disasters and other incidents [3]. Up to now, the vulnerability concept has been applied to different research fields, however there is not a fully recognized definition for transport system vulnerability. Deep research about transport vulnerability under extreme climate change is far from comprehensive development [4]. Transportation vulnerability is fit for traffic network analysis because it considers not only the probability but also the consequences of disasters. vulnerability can be regarded as an essential indication of the highway traffic system prone to cascading failures. The methods of assessment for the transport system vulnerability can be divided into two categories: software simulation methods and mathematical modeling methods. Sustainability 2018, 10, 2333; doi:10.3390/su10072333 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2018, 10, 2333 2 of 12 Software simulation methods assess the vulnerability of transport systems by simulating real-life scenarios and what-if scenarios through simulation software. Berdica etc. simulated the different flow-delay sections of Stockholm transport system and analyzed the main evaluation indicators including the average travel time, speed changes and total travel costs [5]. Lin used graph theory to establish rules of vulnerability system, and simulated vulnerability behavior [6]. Song proposed a new method by embedding the Delphi survey into geographic information system, and assessed regional ecological vulnerability using Monte Carlo simulation [7]. Guardo proposed a software system that can preload Environmental and pesticide data to evaluate potential groundwater vulnerability to pesticides [8]. Ferber simulated different attack strategies by removing different nodes and analyzed the consequence severity of these strategies [9]. Software simulation methods generally consider a particular case. Longer time is needed for simulation under more conditions. Mathematical modeling methods assess the vulnerability and identify the vulnerable sections of transport systems by constructing mathematical models. Asadabadi formulated an investment optimization framework by considering uncertain climate impacts and studied different climate change impacts on roadway networks [10]. Gabriele Landucci developed an analytical approach for risk assessment in transportation system [11]. Matisziw constructed an objective programming model to analyze the potential traffic flow change between the start and end point and identify important sections of the system [12]. A complex transportation system vulnerability model is established by combining fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the maximum entropy principle [13]. Han developed a new hypercube queuing model to evaluate the vulnerability of urban fire emergency system [14]. Zhang explored the chain rear-end accident mechanism of freeway, and established vulnerability structural models [15]. Yang combined hierarchy analytic process with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory, and selected the single vulnerability evaluation index [16]. In the problem of complex traffic system vulnerability assessment, mathematical modeling methods have unique advantages for the accurate and logical characteristics. However, the modeling or solving process is difficult as well as the reasonable assumptions of the vulnerability assessment model. Despite all the efforts in the above areas, no previous study on the highway vulnerability assessment has captured the system cascading failure factors based on general method like Dematel method. Specially, the relationship and interaction of heterogeneous factors causing highway cascading failures have generally been ignored in the vulnerability literature. Separate consideration of the factors may result in inaccurate estimations. Therefore, in this study we using Dematel method to assess the vulnerability of system cascading failure, and then presents a user equilibrium assignment model to optimize the traffic allocation and reallocation. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. The vulnerability of highway traffic system are analyzed on in Section2. Vulnerability assessment system is established based on our proposed assessment method in Section3. Then the algorithm design under user equilibrium assignment model is illustrated in Section4. A case study of Heilongjiang highway network vulnerability assessment is applied in Section5. Finally the conclusion is drawn in Section6. 2. Analysis on Highway Traffic System Vulnerability 2.1. Vulnerability Factor Structure Highway transportation system is a complex system which is open, non-linear, and self-adaptive. The subsystem of highway traffic system could be divided into four types (shown in Figure1): Road, Vehicle, Human and Environment. Vulnerability factors of the first two subsystems are essential factors, and others are classified into external factors. Sustainability 2018, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 12 Sustainability 2018, 10, 2333 3 of 12 Network topology Road Road capacity Essential factors Pavement quality Vehicle Traffic volume Road maintenance Highway system vulnerability Deliberate destruction Human Management measures External Traffic accidents factors Geological disasters Environment Weather conditions FigureFigure 1. Analysis 1. Analysis of of highway highway traffic traffic systemsystem vulnerability. vulnerability. 2.2. Identification Identification and Analysis of VulnerabilityVulnerability Factors by DEMATEL MethodMethod The factorsfactors in in a complexa complex system system may bemay mutually be mutually related inrelated direct orin indirectdirect or ways. indirect As interferences ways. As withinterferences one of the with factor one of may the affects factor themay others, affectssometimes the others, itsometimes is difficult it tois difficult find priorities to find forpriorities factor forimportance. factor importance. Decision-makers Decision-makers may fail may in obtaining fail in obtaining a specific a objectivespecific objective if the disruptions if the disruptions caused causedby the restby the of therest systemof the system cannot cannot be avoided. be avoided. The DEMATEL The DEMATEL method, method, proposed proposed by Fontela by Fontela and andGabus Gabus from from the the Battelle Battelle Memorial Memorial Institute Institute of of Geneva, Geneva, can can be be used used to to find find prioritiespriorities ofof various factors in an interdependentinterdependent system [[17].17]. Factor Factorss of of the the highway highway traffic traffic system are the critical subsystem of a complex highway system, and mutually related, directly or indirectly. Its collapse will seriously interfere otherother sections.sections. Therefore, Therefore, the the identification identification and analysis of vulnerability factors is essential to improve the highway traffi trafficc safety. The DEMATEL method studies
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