The CrEDIBILITY OF Public AND Private Signals: A Document-Based ApprOACH ∗ Azusa Katagiri AND Eric Min Nanyang TECHNOLOGICAL University AND Center FOR INTERNATIONAL Security AND Cooperation, StanforD University April 24, 2018 AbstrACT Crisis bargaining literature has predominantly used formal and qualitative methods to de- bate the relative efficacy of actions, public words, and private words. These approaches have overlooked the reality that policymakers are bombarded with information and struggle to adduce actual signals from endless noise. Events are therefore more effective than any diplo- matic communication in shaping elites' perceptions. Moreover, while ostensibly \costless," private messages provide a more precise communication channel than public and \costly" pro- nouncements. Over 18,000 documents from the Berlin Crisis of 1958-1963 reflecting private statements, public statements, and White House evaluations of Soviet resolve are digitized and processed using statistical learning techniques to evaluate these claims. Results indicate that costly actions have greater influence on White House beliefs than either public or pri- vate statements; that public statements are noisier than private statements; and that private statements have a larger effect on evaluations of resolve than public statements. ∗Authors' e-mails:
[email protected] and
[email protected]. Names are in alphabetical order. We thank Ken Schultz, Jim Fearon, Scott Sagan, Justin Grimmer, Janet Box-Steffensmeier, Jeffrey Friedman, Robert Gulotty, and the participants of the 2015 Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology (Rochester, NY), 2015 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (San Francisco, CA), 2017 Annual Convention of the International Studies Association (Baltimore, MD), and 2017 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association (Chicago, IL) for their thoughtful comments.