COVID-19: Semiconductor Industry Resilience | Accenture
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Semiconductor Companies: Business Resilience in the Wake of COVID-19 A guide to the disruptive impacts & practical actions for semiconductor companies to take May 2020 Covid-19: What to do Now, What to do Next NOW NEXT We’re all in this together COVID-19 has turned into a global crisis, evolving at unprecedented speed and scale. It is creating a universal imperative for governments and organizations to take immediate action to protect their people. It is now the biggest global event—and challenge—of our lifetimes. As such, it is changing human attitudes and behaviors today and forcing organizations to respond. However, the need to respond won’t end when the virus’s immediate threat eventually recedes. What this means for the semiconductor industry COVID-19’s disruptive impacts are being felt in the near term and the full long- term impacts are still unknown. Companies are quickly needing to evaluate impacts on three fronts: supply chain, market demand and workforce. • Global supply chains have disrupted as the virus spreads across the globe bringing uncertainly over quarantine durations • Product demand is shifting across ASICS, memory, sensors, etc. while consumer behavior changes rapidly and with future volatility • Workforce is affected by stay-at-home orders and the uncertainly of how long business as usual will be suspended for No industry is immune to the impacts of COVID-19 , including the semiconductor industry. Overall, 2020 semiconductor revenue projection has been reduced by $55.0 billion, to $415.4 billion, and annual growth for 2020 has been reduced from 12.5% to 0.9%. Impact to semiconductor revenue projections for 2020 by end-use application: • Smartphone: -12.5% • PC & Tablet: -5.8% • Automotive: -24.0% • Server: +16.7% Gartner: Forecast Alert: 2020 Semiconductor Revenue Downgraded by $55 Billion Due to COVID-19 Impact (26 Mar 2020) Resilience in semiconductors Semiconductor companies have exhibited resilience in previous economic downturns Great Recession: 2007-2009 1 20% 2 PHLX Nov 2008Mar 2009 10% Semiconductor Index, 11.7% 0% -10% S&P500, -11.5% -20% RESILIENCE IN SEMICONDUCTORS Market ReturnsMarket -30% •1 Semiconductor stocks showed resiliency, leading the recovery during the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and the subsequent year • Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) troughed in November 2008, -40% 2 while broader S&P500 troughed in early March 2009 •3 Though the causes and reactions to COVID-19 may be different, -50% semiconductor players are showing similar market signs (e.g. correlation convergence, P/E compression) and risk-aversion mentality as in 2008 -60% •4 Semiconductors are typically strong leading indicators of recovery, but the recovery speed and magnitude are dependent on contagion impact • Recovery from COVID-19 will likely follow after several quarters of PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) S&P500 5 depressed results and be driven by future technology drivers, such as 5G Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Yahoo Finance How the crisis impacts semiconductors DEMAND DISRUPTION SUPPLY DISRUPTION WORKFORCE IMPACT Surge in demand for cloud/datacenter services, WFH Chip fabrication resilience given cleanroom Fast and massive shift to WFH required products (ex: smart home devices, laptops, etc.), and environments medical devices Labor intensive OSAT operations disrupted Rise in the need for employee and employer given travel restrictions workforce flexibility and remote working tools Slowdown in production by Auto OEMs resulting in demand variation Shortages of critical components/materials given SHORT-TERM global supply chains and varying impacts and Extended period of social distancing and “shelter IMPACT timing of COVID globally in place” impacts employee morale Reduction in demand for mobile phones and consumer electronics, driven by loss of income and Logistics delays and challenges have given stay-at-home orders impact to transport Economic stimulus expected to bolster consumer Investment in digital supply chain and control tower More robust WFH and “elastic workforce” spending, bringing demand levels back capabilities to improve supply network agility capabilities Accelerated demand for cloud and infrastructure to support distributed workforce Further diversified supply chains across suppliers Many employees will value enhanced flexibility of and locations—eliminating choke points WFH options Lower than expected auto sell-through in distribution Ramped up factory automation will reduce impact channels and order push outs that labor shortages have on supply MID/LONG- TERM IMPACT Shifting consumer priorities and buying patterns given Product roadmap uncertainty, changes to product economic uncertainty schedules and go-to-market strategies IMPACT Favorable Mixed/ Neutral Negative Demand disruption: What to expect in each subsector COMPUTING & IOT & NETWORK & AUTOMOTIVE CONSUMER STORAGE INDUSTRIAL COMMUNICATIONS Slowdown in production by Strong datacenter and PC Lower demand for mobile Greater bandwidth demand Surge in medical devices as Auto OEMs resulting in demand given WFH and phones and consumer and increase in data center global supply chains pivot demand variation study from home electronics fueled by workforce upgrades due to growing loss of income and quarantines online presence (WFH, streaming, etc.) SHORT- TERM Consumer sentiment on Strong demand in certain Decrease in demand for Reduction in capital budgets Public perception of data immediate needs given smart home categories IMPACT consumer and small and delays in planned projects infrastructure as an essential reduced mobility impacting (security, smart speaker) and business systems utility (e.g. work from home) vehicle sales consumer health Lower than expected sell- Accelerated demand for Planned ramp and consumer Accelerated demand for Planned ramp of 5G remains through in distribution cloud and infrastructure to adoption of 5G unlikely to smart manufacturing to highly visible and a national channels and order push outs support distributed workforce change enable more digital workforce priority MID/LONG - TERM Consumer priorities and Rapidly changing consumer Uncertainty in post crisis buying IMPACT buying patterns given the demand patterns given patterns given pent up demand economic uncertainty immediate vs. long term needs coupled with economic fears IMPACT Favorable Mixed/ Neutral Negative Supply disruption: Understanding the many layers Direct Customer To address the effects of disruptions Foundries Assembly Logistics like COVID-19, companies should recognize the unique characteristics IDMs Test and capabilities of each step in the FAB direct manufacturing process, and EDS/Probe OSAT SBT Distribution how their global supply bases are impacted. Marketing & Sales Further, companies should look Raw Silicon PCB Eval. HW beyond their immediate supply base and comprehend staggered Probe Cards ATE/Benches Segments disruptions to indirect components and suppliers as COVID-19 spreads. Reticles Test Filters CUSTOMERS Critical Semiconductor MFG Equipment Needs Finally, companies should consider Raw Materials the relationship between these Channels products and services as well as the Substrates shifting customer requirements to serve their broad array of unique Indirect needs. Semiconductor companies operate in a complex ecosystem, working across the value chain with numerous raw material, assembly, test, package and equipment suppliers and partners globally. Workforce impact and enablement: Semiconductor companies ahead of the curve CULTURE AND ELASTIC VIRTUAL WORK SEAMLESS RELIABLE ADOPTION COLLABORATION ENVIRONMENT NETWORKING SECURITY Given the globality and Rapidly deploy and scale Evaluate network Enable reliable and secure With IP protection top-of- complexity of the collaboration tools requirements, remote network mind, enable appropriate semiconductor supply across the organizations accelerate device connectivity to employees’ security measures for chain, many companies to work with customers, deployment and scale homes and standardize virtual work already have distributed suppliers and partners. virtual environments ways of integrating this environments. Automate workforce tools and to support increased technology with customers with endpoint capabilities in place around mobile/WFH demand. and partners. management detection the globe that the and response, and deploy workforce is familiar with. supporting business processes. 8 Key actions: A holistic plan PHASES TRIAGE & PRIORITIZE SENSE & RECONFIGURE SCALE & MAINTAIN • “War room” mindset • Enable multi-source strategy with • Diversify supply chain to mitigate geographic diversity dependencies on specific countries • Understand and quantify exposure—push SUPPLY and pull in manufacturing accordingly • Leverage past supply disruptions to • Update and maintain business enable business continuity plans continuity planning CHAIN • Understand direct and indirect supply (earthquakes, tsunami) networks and conduct scenario-modeling • Invest in smart manufacturing capabilities and expand remote access capabilities, particularly in OSATs • Analyze shifts in product demand • AI-supported cash and working • Explore alternative revenue streams (aaS, volumes and revise product capital management subscription) schedules to meet immediate needs DEMAND • Improve demand planning and • Expand into ecosystem solutions to bring • Prioritize supply and sales efforts to scenario modelling capabilities demand planning and technology high priority/value/critical demand portfolio planning together •