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A Climate-Resilient Singapore, for a Sustainable Future

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1 CLIMATE ACTION PLAN A CLIMATE-RESILIENT SINGAPORE FOR A SUSTAINABLE 2 CLIMATE ACTION PLAN Singapore’s Climate Action Plan: A Climate-Resilient Singapore, For a Sustainable Future Published By: Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources | Ministry of National Development www.mewr.gov.sg | www.mnd.gov.sg Singapore In Collaboration With: Agri-Food & Veterinary Authority of Singapore Building and Construction Authority Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore Energy Market Authority Housing & Development Board Infocomm Development Authority of Singapore JTC Corporation Land Transport Authority Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore Ministry of Finance Ministry of Health National Climate Change Secretariat National Environment Agency National Parks Board PUB, Singapore’s National Water Agency Singapore Land Authority Urban Redevelopment Authority © COPYRIGHT 2016 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, without the prior permission of the Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources and the Ministry of National Development. ISBN: 978-981-11-0085-7 003 - 012 - 0115 Printing Paper From Sustainable Sources Design and Production by Green House Design + Communications 1 CONTENTS CHAPTER 01 OUR CLIMATE FUTURE 02 CHAPTER 02 WHAT COULD HAPPEN? 06 CHAPTER 03 ADAPTING TO CHANGE 10 CHAPTER 04 NEXT STEPS 28 2 CLIMATE ACTION PLAN CHAPTER 01 OUR CLIMATE FUTURE 3 OUR CLIMATE Our earth’s climate is changing. Heat waves are likely to be more frequent and longer-lasting, extreme rainfall will become more intense and frequent, and the global mean sea level will rise. In 2015, the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS) and the United Kingdom’s Met Office Hadley Centre concluded Phase 1 of the Second National Climate Change Study1. The study analysed Singapore’s climate up to the year 2100 and projected that Singapore is likely to become warmer, experience more frequent and heavier storms, and face rising sea levels. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US? Quite simply, all of us – in Singapore, and across the world – must act now, and act responsibly. Countries must work together to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions2. We must take immediate steps to preserve our environment for future generations. Thunderstorms in Singapore 1 Phase 1 of the National Climate Change study can be found here: http://ccrs.weather.gov.sg/Publications-Second-National-Climate-Change-Study- Science-Reports. Phase 2 of the study, currently underway, makes use of the projections from Phase 1 to examine the climate change impacts on areas such as water resources and drainage, biodiversity and greenery, network infrastructure and building infrastructure. 2 More information on Singapore’s plans to mitigate climate change and stabilise our long-term emissions can be found in the Climate Action Plan: Take Action Today, For a Carbon-Efficient Singapore booklet. 4 CLIMATE ACTION PLAN OUR CLIMATE FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE AND SINGAPORE Dry Spell Heavy Rainfall 13 Jan to 8 Feb 2010, 2011 and Singapore is a low-lying, densely-populated 2014: Singapore Plankton Bloom 2013: Heavy tropical island city-state. We are vulnerable to experienced a 2015: Hot weather rainfall contributed the effects of climate change and variability. record 27-day caused a plankton to major flash flood Three examples of Singapore experiencing the dry spell. Our bloom in the Johor events in these three effects of climate change and variability are desalination and Straits, resulting in years, resulting in shown on the right. NEWater plants had mass fish deaths. significant damage. to operate near full While natural climate variability may have played capacity to meet our a part in these recent events, extreme conditions water needs. are likely to become more intense and frequent due to climate change. It is therefore important for Singapore to prepare for climate change. FORECASTING THE FUTURE CLIMATE Global Climate Models (GCMs) are computer models that simulate the dynamic processes taking place in the atmosphere, land, and oceans. Such models help us understand the earth’s future climate, and were used for the projections seen in the 5th Assessment Report (AR5)3 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, global models are too coarse in spatial resolution to be used directly for assessing Singapore’s adaptation needs. To provide better data for decision-making, the data from GCMs are “down-scaled” Forecasting future climate using Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which can simulate a region’s climate in finer detail. 3 These are reports published by IPCC on the full scientific and technical assessment of climate change. 5 FUTURE PROJECTIONS FOR SINGAPORE WHY? Higher greenhouse gas emissions lead to larger changes Feb and Jun to Sep Nov to Jan in the climate. RAINFALL The contrast between the wet months (Nov to Jan) and dry months (Feb and Jun to Sep) are likely to become more pronounced. Increasing trends in both intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events are expected as the world gets warmer. Towards end of this century 1.4°C to 4.6°C SEA LEVEL DAILY TEMPERATURE Sea levels are projected to rise between 0.25m Daily mean temperatures are and 0.76m in the last projected to increase by 1.4°C few decades of this to 4.6°C towards the end of century (2070 to 2099), this century (2070 to 2099), compared with the compared with the baseline baseline period of period of 1980 to 2009. 1980 to 2009. Towards end of this century (2070 to 2099) Sea level rise between 0.25m and 0.76m FREQUENCY OF WIND WARM DAYS AND NIGHTS Singapore will continue to be influenced by the More warm days and northeast and southwest warm nights for Feb monsoons with potential to Sep are projected increase in wind throughout the Northeast Southwest speeds during northeast Monsoon 21st Century. Monsoon monsoon season. 6 CLIMATE ACTION PLAN CHAPTER 02 WHAT COULD HAPPEN? 7 RISKS WE FACE real and we must act now to reduce our risk exposure in the future. The climate impacts that we face pose various risks to Singapore. These risks Singapore’s public sector has taken have been summarised on the next page. the lead on this. We have developed a range of climate change adaptation Some of these impacts and risks may measures, designed with the protection simply cause inconvenience, while others of Singapore and Singaporeans in mind. are more severe. For instance, flooding The measures aim to minimise the adverse can result in injury, cause damage to effects that climate change could have on property, and disrupt traffic. The increased the community, economy, and our daily risk of heat-induced and vector-borne lives. As a start, these measures bring us illnesses can cause us to fall ill more one step closer to our goal of enhancing frequently. Bush fires or uprooted trees can Singapore’s resilience to climate change. also cause serious injury. These risks are CENTRE FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH SINGAPORE (CCRS) CCRS was established to develop research expertise in the weather and climate of Singapore and the wider Southeast Asia region. It undertakes projections of Singapore’s future climate for long-term planning, as well as researches the characteristics and causes of extreme weather. Centre for Climate Research Singapore 802 CLIMATEWHAT COULD ACTION HAPPEN? PLAN WHAT COULD HAPPEN? RISKS 1. Protecting Our Coasts • Communities and property along Singapore’s WE FACE coastline could be affected by rising sea levels. 2. Managing Our Water, Minimising Floods The climate impacts that we face pose risks to Singapore in the Our water supply may be affected by more following six areas: • frequent and severe droughts. 1. • Intense rainfall and rising sea levels may increase the risk of flooding. 3. Protecting Our Biodiversity and Greenery • Trees could be damaged or uprooted due to strong winds. 2. • Biodiversity may be affected by changes in temperature and rainfall. • There may be more bush fires due to temperature increase and low rainfall. 4. Strengthening Resilience in Public Health 3. and Our Food Supply • Higher temperatures may affect human health and healthcare operations. • Vector/pest populations could increase due to higher temperatures and rainfall, increasing the incidence of diseases such as dengue. 4. • Our imported food supplies could face disruption and price spikes, should production be affected by extreme weather. 5. Keeping Our Essential Services 5. Running Well • Intense rainfall, sea level rise, and temperature changes could affect the operation of our telecommunications, power, and transport infrastructure. 6. 6. Keeping Our Buildings and Infrastructure Safe • Safety and reliability of infrastructure could be impacted by strong winds and higher temperatures. • Increased rainfall could lead to slope instability. 9 STAYING RESILIENT Singapore has developed a Resilience Framework to guide our plans for climate change adaptation. The framework helps us identify climate change risks to our people and property, and formulate adaptation plans to minimise the adverse effects of climate change on our lives. Some of our adaptation measures will require time to implement, while others may involve the construction of costly infrastructure. Our plans must be flexible and dynamic to accommodate future needs and the latest science. It is also important to consider how our measures would affect one another, so that we can implement them in the most efficient and effective manner. SINGAPORE’S RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK Conduct risk assessment to identify and categorise climate Monitor Analyse change risks in tandem and Risk with advances in review climate science. RISE GO RIS Undertake E K C T S A ND V l adaptation planning A i s C U S L m n T N by formulating a o C i E t t options to tackle A R e c P A R e risks in a dynamic j B M e I o s I r ASSET and flexible manner.
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