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Equity Research Special Report Rd March 23 , 2020

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Equity Research Special Report Rd March 23 , 2020 Equity Research Special Report rd March 23 , 2020 Andean Equities Report A stock guide on COVID-19 crisis Any feeling of safety has faded away. A simple virus that started CREDICORP CAPITAL RESEARCH spreading from a distant place in China has changed our reality. Uncertainty comes not only from when we will have the vaccine or the Carolina Ratto extension of the quarantine but also from how this crisis could eventually +(562) 2446 1768 change human habits, re-shaping the story of many industries (tourism, [email protected] retailers, malls, airlines). Regarding the labor force, many answers are unknow. How long will it be possible to maintain current payroll? How will Tomás Sanhueza companies manage salary reductions to avoid layoffs? Home office is +(562) 2446 1751 here to stay as it allows lighter cost structures. What is the effect on [email protected] consumption behavior? The impact on the market and economic activity is tremendous. Sebastián Gallego, CFA +(571) 3394400 ext. 1594 Governments and central banks are doing their part. In Chile, President [email protected] Piñera announced an unprecedent fiscal package for 4.7% of GDP to protect the jobs and income of the most vulnerable population as well as the SMEs, for Daniel Córdova them to be able to ‘survive’ at times of crisis. The Board of the Central Bank of +(511) 416 3333 Ext. 33052 Chile (BCCh) cut its reference rate by 75bps to 1.0%, reaching its lowest level [email protected] since 2010. In Colombia, the government has also announced a fiscal plan amounting to 1.5% of GDP coming entirely from stabilization funds as well as the postponement of disbursements to FONPET (pension fund and other regional entities). Even though the BANREP has not cut rates or made any commitment to buy financial assets yet, it took some measures to provide liquidity to the market. Peru has yet to announce a full fiscal package. There are some measures on poverty relief and facilities for corporate debt restructuring amounting to only 0.3% of GDP. The Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) decided to lower its monetary policy rate by 100bps to 1.25%, in line with the level reached during the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, a record low. Is this enough? It is yet to be seen. From a market perspective, share prices have lost correlation with their fundamental values. Relief will only come when people feel safe again. Therefore, it is important to pay special attention to whether measures taken to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and to avoid the collapse of the healthcare system are effective. Colombia has reported 231 cases of COVID-19 (2 deaths), Peru 363 cases (5 deaths) and Chile 632 cases (1 death). In Colombia and Peru, the governments have declared states of emergency until April 13th and March 30th, respectively, locking down cities in a mandatory quarantine. In Chile, President Piñera is being pressured to do the same, but the government states that there is no need for a quarantine yet and that the country is better prepared to face COVID-19 than Italy or Spain. It was indicated that the higher number of cases in Chile compared to the other Andean countries is related to the greater capacity for testing for the disease. From a healthcare infrastructure prospective, it seems that Peru is the most IMPORTANT NOTICE (US FINRA RULE 2242) This document is fragile, followed by Colombia with ~1.7 hospital beds per 1,000 people and then intended for INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS and is not subject to all of the Chile with ~2.1 hospital beds per 1,000 people (vs ~3.4 in Italy and ~3 in independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. Credicorp Capital may do or seek to Spain). do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to (continues in next page) important disclosures on page 21 to 23. Analyst Certification on Page 21. Additional disclosures on page 23. 1 BUYING Considering the current uncertainty and volatility of global markets, we are mapping OPPORTUNITIES. opportunities to provide an investment guide on how to play the Andean markets Parque Arauco, during the crisis. In terms of strategy, we believe investors should stay defensive as no Falabella, Cencosud, one really knows the magnitude of the crisis. However, we do believe investors could take Entel, Sonda, risks in some names. Companies have been selected considering a stress test analysis Santander, BCI, ILC. that assesses the possible impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on their dividend policies, Bancolombia, business operations, cash flows and liquidity. In addition, we are including two Davivienda, Grupo sections: dividend stories and levered companies. The level of uncertainty is still Argos, Nutresa, huge, and thus this should be considered a preliminary analysis. Grupo Sura, Celsia, Regarding possible changes in consumer behavior, our first thought is that the quarantine Ecopetrol. Peru. will definitely accelerate digital transformation within companies and boost ecommerce InRetail, Cementos sales. Banks seems to be more prepared for this journey than retailers. However, we Pacasmayo, believe the need for social and personal interaction will preserve the existence of malls, Ferreycorp, Aceros but real estate operations will have to speed up efforts to provide experiences to cover Arequipa, IFS, these social needs (music festivals, restaurants, medical clinics). This could significantly Alicorp. change the tenant mix. Buying Opportunities. Moderate Risk. Stocks extremely discounted; healthy SAFE HEAVEN. balance sheet. They will survive the crisis. Chile. Parque Arauco, Falabella, Banco de Chile, Cencosud, Entel, Sonda, Santander, BCI, ILC. Colombia. Bancolombia, Davivienda, Colbun, Andina, Grupo Argos, Nutresa, Grupo Sura, Celsia, Ecopetrol. Peru. InRetail, Cementos CCU, IAM/Aguas, Pacasmayo, Ferreycorp, Aceros Arequipa, IFS, Alicorp. Concha y Toro, SMU. GEB, Grupo Safe Haven. Low risk. Chile. Banco de Chile, Colbun, Andina, CCU, IAM/Aguas, Concha Aval, Canacol, y Toro, SMU. Colombia. GEB, Grupo Aval, Canacol, Corficolombiana, BVC. Peru. Engie Corficolombiana, Peru, Luz del Sur, Enel Distribucion Peru, Enel Generacion Peru. BVC. Engie Peru, To be Out. Chile. ItauCorpbanca, Latam Airlines, Hites. Colombia. CLH, Cemargos, Luz del Sur, Enel Avianca. Peru. Mining Distribucion Peru, Enel Generacion Peru. 2 Mapping Andean companies during COVID-19 crisis Chile Estimated Cash / Category Characteristics P/BV Stocks Comments Div Yield Equity Extremely discounted. Market overeaccion. Strong impact on 2Q20 due to the closure of Malls. Tenants 8.1% 0.8x 29.6% Parque Arauco will not be forced to pay due to COVID-19 quarantine, and insurance will not cover losses. However, the company´s strong cash position and solid asset base should guarantee steady cash flows in the future. Challenges ahead remained, while cash flows will be streched during 2Q20 since only ~7% of the EBITDA is coming from supermarkets. However, the company´s strong market position and assets (loan 0.8% 0.8x 6.0% Falabella porfolio & Mall Plaza), prevent as to justify current market prices. Still, it will continue to be under pressure because flow of news will be negative. 4.8% 0.8x 37.9% Entel Healthy balance after the sell of towers; steady cash flows expected 4.1% 0.8x 29.7% Sonda Attractive valuations but more risky; The delivery will be key to monitor BUYING Stocks extremely Shares are trading a with a relevant discount when compared to Banco de Chile. The bank should be OPPORTUNITES discounted, resilient during the current cycle amid: i) a solid capital position, ii) a transformation risk process over the last - MODERATE healthy balance years to focus on high income individuals, iii) solid funding base and a low cost of funding, and iv) 5.5% 1.5x - Santander RISK sheet. leadership across the industry. Despite all these attributes, we have a slight preference for Banco de Chile for 2020E as we see it as safe-heaven. We will continue to monitor the evolution of asset quality at the bank when considering also that Santander just acquired Santander Consumer (auto loans). Shares are trading at 0.9x (trailing) P/BV, which seems unusual and highly discounted when considering a strong and diversified asset base. Recall that 25% to 30% of assets are located in the USA which should help to mitigate the current scenario (assuming no collapse of the financial system in the USA). We do not 3.5% 0.9x - BCI see liquidity concerns when considering BCI’s stable funding base and strong capital position. We acknowledge that profitability may decline in 2020 and potentially 2021, but we do see a long term opportunity for an asset that may be able to attain 13-14% ROAE (with an operation in the USA). Quarantine impact on earnings is limited. Considering all regulatory risks, we believe a bottom price would 11.0% - - ILC be something around CLP 7,000, way above current levels. Moderate impact on P&L during the COVID-19 crisis. Good cash flow generation, despite the closure of 7.9% 0.4x 2.7% Cencosud Malls. Resilient in a potential worst case scenario due to: i) strongest asset quality indicators with coverage ratios Banco de 4.1% 1.8x - close to 2.0x, ii) the strongest capital ratios ahead of Basel III standards; CET 1 ratio should be above those
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