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Equity Research April 10th, 2019 Monthly Andean Strategy Update Our strategy continues to pay off in 2019 In March, the Andean region performed closely in line with LatAm (+0.3% vs CREDICORP CAPITAL RESEARCH +0.5%, in USD terms, respectively) with good performances across the board (Colombia: +2.1%; Chile: +1.3%; Peru: +0.9%, in USD terms). However, in local currency terms, Chile dropped 0.5%, while Colombia remained flat and Peru appreciated 0.2%. Daniel Velandia, CFA +(571) 3394400 ext. 1505 We maintain our Underweight position in Chile due to lack of short-term [email protected] catalysts, low trading activity levels and major capital market events coming ahead. Carolina Ratto • The Chilean economy started the year with weak figures, with demand-side +(562) 2446 1768 sectors losing dynamism. [email protected] • Traded volume lost strength in March compared to the first months of 2019. We believe local and foreign investors remain on the sidelines as sentiment Tomás Sanhueza has not changed, and two large capital events (Enel Am’s capital increase +(562) 2446 1751 and Cencosud’s real estate IPO) will keep investors on the sidelines. [email protected] • Our downward bias for earnings and upside estimate for the local market has consistently become more clear: the most relevant sectors of the market Sebastián Gallego, CFA (Retail, Banks and Pulp & Paper) are not showing any signs of recovery. +(571) 3394400 ext. 1594 • Valuations continue to be discounted in terms of 2019E P/E and EV/EBITDA [email protected] (14.4x and 8.0x, respectively); however, our downward bias for earnings leaves us in a more cautious stance. Daniel Córdova • Our Top Picks are ILC, Engie Chile and SK. +(511) 416 3333 Ext. 33052 Upside has narrowed, but we maintain our Overweight position in [email protected] Colombia given solid fundamentals for 2019. • The local market has been supported by strong inflows to ETFs; Colombia currently ranks sixth among emerging markets. • Our top-down strategy continues to rely upon higher economic activity vs 2018. Our GDP growth forecast stands at 3.3% vs 2.7% in 2018. • External conditions continue to favor our overweight stance in Colombia; any increase in volatility across global markets may be the main threat to our thesis. • We continue to believe that valuations remain attractive; 12-month forward P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples stand at 16.8x and 7.9x, respectively, compared to 20.4x and 8.9x averages, respectively, since 2015. • We maintain Davivienda, Cemargos and Nutresa as our Top Picks. We maintain our Neutral position in Peru, with domestic demand fairly resilient amid short-term risks on metal prices and some political noise. • Private consumption should support overall economic growth, while private investment may be slowly regaining some speed. • Confrontation between the Executive Branch and Congress is at a low point, paving the way for collaboration on pro-growth economic measures. • The Las Bambas' blockade may impact short-term market sentiment. • Companies under coverage continue to trade at a discount against historical averages; however, this discount fades when excluding mining companies. IMPORTANT NOTICE (US FINRA RULE 2242) This document is intended for • We maintain Ferreycorp and InRetail as our Top Picks. Ferreycorp should INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail benefit from the strong mining investment cycle, while InRetail may keep investors. Credicorp Capital may do or seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm surprising us on synergies from its acquisition of Quicorp and sound growth may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. in private consumption. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 30 to 33, Analyst Certification on Page 30. Additional disclosures on page 33. 1 Actualizar Contents Monthly Andean Strategy Update Chile: Still low activity levels in the market with no change in sentiment 5 Top Picks 7 Colombia: Upside has narrowed due to strong performance; however, we maintain our overweight position 9 Top Picks 12 Peru: Domestic demand remains resilient, and should withstand some recent political noise; short term uncertainty in 13 metal prices persists Top Picks 15 Valuation Summary 17 Appendix: Monthly Summary 20 Top Winners / Losers of the Month 21 Traded Volume 24 Chile - Pension Funds: Monthly Flows 27 Peru - Pension Funds: Monthly Flows 28 Economic Forecasts 29 2 Actualizar LTM Andean Equities Performance (in USD) IPSA COLCAP SP BVL General Index MSCI Latam 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Source: Credicorp Capital, & Bloomberg Andean Equities Fwd P/E (12 month rolling) vs 5Y historical average P/E FWD vs Historical 5Y Average 20.0x 30.0% 18.0x 16.8x 25.0% 16.0x 14.4x 14.1x 20.0% 14.0x 15.0% 12.0x 10.0% 10.0x 5.0% 8.0x 0.0% 6.0x -5.0% 4.0x -10.0% 2.0x -15% -15% -16% -15.0% .0x -20.0% Chile Peru Colombia Andean Equities Fwd EV/EBITDA (12 month rolling) vs 5Y historical average EV/EBITDA FWD vs Historical 5Y Average 8.0x 8.0x 7.9x 30.0% 25.0% 7.8x 20.0% 7.6x 15.0% 7.4x 10.0% 5.0% 7.1x 7.2x 0.0% 7.0x -5% -5.0% -12% -10.0% 6.8x -13% -15.0% 6.6x -20.0% Chile Peru Colombia Source: Credicorp Capital, & Bloomberg 3 Strategy Summary within Andean Context Long view Short view (12-to-18 months) (1-to -3 months) Chile Allocation: Underweight (+) Solid GDP growth (3.3% 2019E), normalized inflation and compelling outlook for Valuations continue to be discounted. However, we investments still see a lack of catalyst for the market, which in our (+) Safe haven on the regional landscape with steady corporate earnings growth view, is related to the weak earnings growth and (+) Attractive bottom-up stories with discounted valuations potential downward corrections in important sectors. (-) No major recovery in the consumption enviroment In addition, two major capital event (Enel Am capital (-) Negative impact of global risks increase and Cencosud's real estate IPO) will put (-) No clear catalyst with lacking earning growth investors on sidelines for now. We remain cautious (-) Exposure to risks coming from Argentina and Brazil on upcoming months. Strategy: We continue to favor a stock picking strategy of companies with solid fundamentals, earnings momentum and clear catalysts. Top picks: ILC, Engie Chile and Sigdo Koppers Colombia Allocation: overweight (+) Attractive valuations The most important issues in the short term are: oil (+) GDP growth acceleration prices, exchange rate performance, corporate (+) Better results within the banking sector governance issues/news, rebalancing process (+) Strong results at Ecopetrol for 2018; dvd yield above 6.5% (COLCAP in April), flows related to the decree 959 of (-) Volatility across foreign markets 2018, ETFs' flow momentum. (-) Twin deficits Strategy: We continue to believe that the Colombian market offers an attractive entry point due to i) better macro outlook, where we expect a GDP growth of 3.3%, ii) real gross investment should advance 5.5% in 2019 relative to 3.5% in 2018, and iii) attractive valuations. Top picks: Davivienda, Nutresa, and Cementos Argos Peru Allocation: Neutral (+) Private consumption remains fairly resilient, while private investment may be Ferreycorp has upside from its extraordinary slowly regaining some speed. dividend announcement, strong fundamentals and (+) Monetary policy will be supportive throughout 2019. lower selling pressures. Engie shows an attractive (+) Confrontation between Executive and Congress is at a low point, paving the way upside, and is supported by strong 2019 revenues for collaboration on economic measures. outlook. Demand for IFS seems reactivated. Cerro (-) Some political noise caused by the Las Bambas' blockade. Verde should catch up with Southern Copper’s (-) Metal prices downside risk on trade war remains a concern. surge and benefit from a favorable outlook for (-) Valuations excluding mining companies at their historical averages. copper. Aceros Arequipa keeps a discount vs. peers. Strategy: Trading ideas: As commodity price short-term risks persist, we favor stocks such as Ferreycorp, Ferreycorp, Engie, IFS, Cerro Verde, Aceros linked to the upcycle of mining investment. At the same time, private consumption Arequipa. maintains a healthy growth, supporting names such as InRetail and Alicorp. We pay attention to positive signals from construction and infrastructure-related sectors. Top Picks: InRetail and Ferreycorp. 4 Chile Still low activity levels in the market with no change in sentiment Despite better In March, the Chilean market posted a negative return in both USD (-4.1%) and CLP relative risk position (-0.5%). The Chilean market has been a clear underperformer in the region, behind the in the region, we local markets in Peru and Colombia. Under this regional scenario, our Underweight have not seen a position in Chile seems to have paid off. During March, the local market showed weaker change in sentiment dynamics compared to January and February 2019, with lower average daily traded towards Chile. volumes during the whole month. Local investors were slightly more active as sellers than as buyers, though with significantly low activity. In our view, local investors have remained on the sidelines due to two important capital market events that should take place in the upcoming quarter: (i) the capital increase of Enel Americas for USD 3.5bn (amount not approved yet) and (ii) the IPO of the real estate assets of Cencosud, looking to gather USD 1.0bn.
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