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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Thursday, September 27, 2018

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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Thursday, September 27, 2018 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Thursday, September 27, 2018 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group ECONOMIC Devry Boughner Vorwerk Corporate VP, Global Corporate Affairs How Are Trade IMF Increases Cargill Joyce Chang Size of Argentina Global Head of Research, Tensions Affecting Loan Package JPMorgan Chase & Co. The International Monetary Fund Dirk Donath Senior Partner, agreed to increase the size of its Catterton Aimara Latin America? loan package for Argentina by Marlene Fernández nearly 15 percent to $57.1 billion. Corporate Vice President for Page 2 Government Relations, Arcos Dorados Peter Hakim BUSINESS President Emeritus, Inter-American Dialogue Petroperú to Sell Donna Hrinak $600 Mn in Bonds President, Boeing Latin America Jon Huenemann for Refinery Work Vice President, U.S. & Int’l Affairs, The Peruvian state energy Philip Morris International company is issuing the bonds to James R. Jones Chairman, pay for modernization of its Talara refinery in order to expand its Monarch Global Strategies International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde warned recently about Craig A. Kelly threats facing emerging markets due to trade tensions between the United States and China. production capacity. Director, Americas International // File Photo: International Monetary Fund. Page 3 Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil The International Monetary Fund’s managing director, John Maisto Director, U.S. Education Christine Lagarde, warned this month in an interview with POLITICAL Finance Group the Financial Times that emerging markets could suffer a Venezuela’s Nicolás Mariscal Chairman, Q “shock” due to the escalating trade war between the United Maduro Blasts U.S. Grupo Marhnos States and China. While Lagarde said her staff does not yet see wide- Thomas F. McLarty III in Speech to U.N. Chairman, spread contagion, developing countries are facing threats due to rising General Assembly McLarty Associates “uncertainty” and a “lack of confidence,” she added. How are trade Carl Meacham Venezuelan President Nicolás Associate VP for Latin America tensions between the United States and China affecting Latin American Maduro unexpectedly appeared Int’l Advocacy Division, PhRMA countries? Which countries and industries stand to gain or lose the at the U.N. General Assembly Carlos Paz-Soldan most? How should countries in the region protect themselves against meeting, where he delivered a Partner, 50-minute speech, largely blasting DTB Associates, LLP the fallout from external factors such as friction over trade? the United States. It was Maduro’s Beatrice Rangel first appearance at the gathering Director, of world leaders since 2015. AMLA Consulting LLC Miguel Braun, trade minister of Argentina: “It is clear that Page 2 Ernesto Revilla Head of Latin American the current trade tensions generate uncertainty, and emerging Economics, Citi markets generally suffer more in times of uncertainty. At Gustavo Roosen the same time, and although it is important to follow events Chairman of the Board, Envases Venezolanos A closely, the current situation is not as dire as others faced in the past. Andrés Rozental Despite the current tensions, the world seems to continue to support the President, Rozental & Asociados and Senior integration process. Trade now represents more than half of global GDP, Policy Advisor, Chatham House there are close to 300 trade agreements in place today when they only Shelly Shetty Head of Sovereigns Ratings, numbered 25 in 1990 and many countries continue to negotiate agree- Latin America, Fitch ments, as we’ve seen between Japan and the European Union, for exam- Roberto Sifon-Arevalo Managing Director, Americas ple. In this context, Argentina continues in its course toward stronger Sovereign & Public Finance Ratings, integration, negotiating through Mercosur with the European Union, the Standard & Poor’s European Free Trade Association, Canada, Korea and Singapore, and bilat- erally with Chile, Colombia and Mexico, and advancing in intra-Mercosur Maduro // Photo: United Nations. Continued on page 3 COPYRIGHT © 2018, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Thursday, September 27, 2018 POLITICAL NEWS countries, including Argentina, Chile, Colom- NEWS BRIEFS bia, Paraguay and Peru, was seen as a strong Venezuela’s Maduro rebuke of Maduro. “To remain indifferent or U.S. Plans to Release Text speculative in front of this reality could be per- of Trade Deal With Mexico Blasts U.S. in Speech ceived as being complicit with the regime. We are not going to be complicit,” said Paraguay’s as Early as Friday: Report at United Nations foreign minister, Andrés Rodríguez Pedotti, the U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is AP reported. Nearby countries have become planning to release the text of a bilateral trade Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro increasingly overwhelmed by the exodus of deal with Mexico as early as Friday, CNBC unexpectedly showed up Wednesday at the Venezuelans fleeing economic devastation in reported, citing two unnamed sources with U.N. General Assembly, where he delivered a Venezuela, which includes hyperinflation that knowledge of the matter. The deal resulted 50-minute speech, mainly blasting U.S. policy, the International Monetary Fund has estimated from trade talks to revamp the North American the Associated Press reported. Maduro’s sur- will reach one million percent by the end of the Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, which also in- prise appearance came after he had threatened year. Some 2.3 million Venezuelans have left cludes Canada. One source said the text allows to skip the gathering, saying he feared that he their home country since 2014, according to Canada to be added to the deal at a later date. might be assassinated. In his address to the the United Nations. global audience, Maduro spoke for well over his allotted time and accused the United States of wanting “to continue giving orders as though ECONOMIC NEWS Mexico’s López Obrador the world were its own property.” He referred Reportedly to Tap Heath to U.S. President Donald Trump’s speech a day for Central Bank Board before in which Trump described a unilateral IMF Agrees to Boost Mexican President-elect Andrés Manuel “America-first” policy. Maduro responded, Size of Argentina López Obrador is set to nominate independent saying, “From this very rostrum a threat was economist Jonathan Heath to the board of the issued yesterday to governments of the world Loan Package country’s central bank, according to unnamed that orders should be obeyed and the U.S. sources, The Wall Street Journal reported policy should be followed or else those coun- The International Monetary Fund agreed to Wednesday. Heath would be the first person tries would suffer from the consequences.” increase the size of the loan package signed from the private sector to be named to Bank of During his speech, Maduro also reiterated his with Argentina in June to $57.1 billion, Mexico’s board in almost 10 years. He would allegation that the United States and Colombia Argentine Finance Minister Nicolás Dujovne replace deputy governor Manuel Ramos Fran- were behind the Aug. 4 incident in which a pair and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde cia, whose term ends this year, after approval of aerial drones exploded near a stage where announced Wednesday, Clarín reported. The in the Senate. he was speaking during a military parade in Caracas, the Miami Herald reported. Maduro’s government has called the incident an assas- The Fund remains sination attempt, and Maduro said Wednesday fully committed to Former Veracruz State that 28 people had been convicted in connec- helping Argentina Governor Duarte tion with the explosions and that an investiga- tackle the problems Sentenced to Nine Years tion revealed that the attack was planned and that it faces.” financed in the United States and Colombia. A former Mexican state governor from the —Christine Lagarde Both countries have denied involvement. Both ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, Maduro and Trump said this week that they was sentenced on Wednesday to nine years in would be willing to meet with each other, but IMF will boost its bailout package by 15 per- prison on money laundering charges and links the White House said there was no immediate cent, providing an additional $19 billion to the to organized crime, Reuters reported. Javier plan for a meeting, the Miami Herald reported. Argentine government through next year, when Duarte, who governed Veracruz State, pleaded Maduro arrived in New York the same day that President Mauricio Mari’s term ends. “The Fund guilty to heading a criminal organization the leaders of five Latin American nations and remains fully committed to helping Argentina between 2011 and 2016. Mexican auditor ASF Canada met there to sign a complaint with the tackle the problems that it faces,” Lagarde said said in 2016 that the financial irregularities in International Criminal Court, urging it to inves- during a joint press conference with Dujovne the state’s public funds under Duarte were the tigate Maduro’s government on allegations of in New York, The Wall Street Journal reported. highest amount ever seen, the wire service human rights abuses. The action by the six The announcement came a day after Argenti- reported. COPYRIGHT © 2018, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Thursday, September 27, 2018 na’s central bank president, Luis Caputo, unex- FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 pectedly resigned less than four months in the position amid reports of disputes with the IMF issues. Argentina firmly believes in the need grand bargain and the progressive deterio- over the country’s exchange-rate policy. The to strengthen the multilateral trading rules- ration of multilateral governance. In all of new deal requires Argentina to maintain a float- based system and is doing its part toward them, Latin America stands to lose from a ing exchange-rate regime without intervention.
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