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Software & IT Services Software & IT Services Design Software: it is not all about CAD 8 April 2015 Gal Munda Analyst +44 20 3465 2746 [email protected] Daud Khan Analyst +44 20 3465 2638 [email protected] Jean Beaubois Specialist Sales +44 20 3207 7835 [email protected] ATLAS ALPHA • THOUGHT LEADERSHIP • ACCESS • SERVICE Software & IT Services THE TEAM Gal Munda joined Berenberg in 2014 from PricewaterhouseCoopers, where he worked in the financial decision and analysis department. Previously, he was part of PricewaterhouseCoopers’ assurance practice. He started his career at Raiffeisen Bank where he was a trainee analyst supporting coverage of CEE mid-caps. Gal is a qualified accountant (ACA) and holds a Masters degree in Finance & Investments from the University of Nottingham. Daud Khan joined Berenberg in September 2011 with responsibility for Software and IT Services research. Previously, Daud worked at JPMorgan Cazenove for five years, covering software and latterly heading up the mid-cap technology team. Daud has been an analyst since 1999, having worked for Merrill Lynch, where he headed up the European software team, and for MF Global. He was a founding principal of Clear Capital, an equity research boutique. Daud is also an ACA, having qualified with PricewaterhouseCoopers. Je an Beaubois has 12 years of equities experience working both on the buy-side and the sell-side. Jean joined Berenberg in 2010 having previously been a portfolio manager on the cUSD3bn Morgan Stanley Global Value Fund where he was in charge of TMT investments. He was also an analyst on the Global SmallCap Fund in charge of the DACH region. He holds a Masters in Finance from INC and is a CFA Level 3 Charterholder. For our disclosures in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG) and our disclaimer please see the end of this document. Please note that the use of this research report is subject to the conditions and restrictions set forth in the disclosures and the disclaimer at the end of this document. Software & IT Services Table of contents Design Software: it is not all about CAD 4 Introduction 5 Technological analysis of the design software sector 8 The driving forces behind the industry shift 20 Comparative analysis of the design software sector 22 Financial analysis 27 Comp sheet 31 Individual companies section 34 Companies Ansys: A quality asset trading at a fair price 35 Autodesk: Business model shift is not in the price yet 53 Dassault Systèmes Long-term financial targets will not be met 75 PTC: Still misunderstood, still undervalued 104 AVEVA Group High-quality business in cyclical malaise 124 Nemetschek: Potential for further US growth 127 RIB Software: Perfectly positioned to continue growing 134 Disclosures in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG) 141 3 Software & IT Services Design Software: it is not all about CAD ● Sector initiation with a selection of Buys and a Sell: In today’s sector report, we HOLD Ansys are extending our coverage of the design software sector by initiating on Ansys, (initiation) Autodesk, Dassault and PTC – four industry-leading design software companies. By increasing our coverage to seven companies, we will now be providing research Price target USD 88.00 updates and recommendations for around 90% of the listed assets in the design Current price USD 88.69 software space. 02/04/2015 New York Close ● Changing industry dynamics: These companies are working hard to continue to BUY Autodesk deliver their historically high growth rates. However, with the traditional CAD (Initiation) market much more stable than it was a decade ago, their challenge now is to embark on new ventures outside of their core strength. We believe that a reduced Price target USD 75.00 focus on their core business may leave some of the companies exposed to the Current price USD 59.82 disruptors that are keen to take market share by delivering software through 02/04/2015 New York Close rental-based models. For those new players, it represents an opportunity to become established in the market that would otherwise impossible to penetrate. SELL Dassault ● Buy Autodesk: We are initiating on Autodesk with a Buy rating and a price target Systèmes of $75. Our 25% upside potential comes mainly from the fact that the market has (initiation) not factored in the benefits of the business model shift that is set to change the company over the next four years. Price target EUR 49.00 Current price EUR 61.69 ● Buy PTC: Our Buy rating on PTC reflects the company’s acknowledgement of its 02/04/2015 Paris Close past mistakes and its efforts to rebalance its core. At the same time, the business is BUY now focusing on the internet of things (IoT) opportunity which we believe is not PTC factored into the current share price. Our price target of 43 indicates 16% upside (Initiation) potential. Price target USD 43.00 ● Hold Ansys: Ansys has done a wonderful job of becoming the world’s leading Current price USD 37.17 specialised simulation software vendor. Even though the market is far from 06/04/2015 New York Close saturated, we believe that future growth will come in the more competitive mass- market environment which will result in the gradual reduction of the company’s BUY AVEVA current industry-leading operating margins. We believe that the current valuation of the stock fully reflects the mid-term opportunities for Ansys and we therefore Price target GBp 1,977 initiate with a Hold rating and a price target of $88. Current price GBp 1,492 02/04/2015 London Close ● Sell Dassault: Our Sell recommendation on Dassault is based on the fact that the drive towards new industries seems to be taking some of the focus away from its HOLD Nemetschek highly competitive core CAD business, which today generates more than 60% of its revenue (and a larger share of profits). We believe that the current valuation Price target EUR 114.00 overestimates the potential of the adjacent markets and that its aggressive M&A (71.50) strategy will continue to provide headwinds to the operating margin. Our price Current price EUR 118.60 target of €49 reflects our view that the clearly defined FY19 EPS targets will be 02/04/2015 XETRA Close missed, not only due to lower-than-expected top-line growth, but also lower-than- expected operating margins. BUY RIB Software ● Updates on AVEVA, Nemetschek and RIB: We remain buyers of AVEVA. We Price target EUR 16.00 believe that the current pressures are cyclical and that the company is extremely (14.50) well positioned to bounce back once oil capex recovers. RIB remains a Buy on the Current price EUR 13.33 back of its strong FY14 performance and the increased traction of its innovative 02/04/2015 XETRA Close iTWO solution. We believe that the 5D BIM market remains significantly underpenetrated and that the current level of licence growth is sustainable in the mid-term; we thus raise our price target on Nemetschek but remain holders of the stock. Since our last update, the company has made a significant acquisition in the US which indicates that its future focus will be on reducing its reliance on the traditional DACH region. To construct a Buy case for Nemetschek, we would have to see signs of the company taking away AEC market share from Autodesk. 8 April 2015 Gal Munda Daud Khan Jean Beaubois Analyst Analyst Specialist Sales +44 20 3465 2746 +44 20 3465 2638 +44 20 3207 7835 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Software & IT Services Introduction Design software has an impact on many aspects of our lives, more than we imagine. Almost all the products we use have been digitally designed using computer-aided design (CAD) software. With the increasing interchangeability of virtual and physical processes, we are losing the need to produce real-life prototypes. Today, we are able to design products that will be successful in the market from first release. This is not a coincidence. Behind modern product design, there is an ecosystem of product lifecycle management (PLM) that enables it. PLM is a complex concept that is made up of many parts, and CAD systems are but one of these. Modern product development processes also include virtual simulation, which is part of computer-aided engineering (CAE). The manufacturing process is becoming standardised with the use of automated manufacturing (CAM) software and products are serviced by technicians using service lifecycle management (SLM) solutions. Not every vertical today is as IT intensive as the manufacturing. And some of the companies under our coverage are increasingly gambling on the trend to improve the efficiency of those industries, just like the ERP systems did a decade or so ago. Design software is one of the pillars of the enterprise software space Enterprise software PLM ERP Supply chain CRM CAD CAM PDM CAE Source: Berenberg Today, the large enterprise vendors who have built their empires through years of stable growth still largely dominate the global software space. For an investor, enterprise software is usually synonymous with the ERP providers, such as Oracle or SAP. This is only part of the truth and the modern (consumer-based) economy is supported by the underlying infrastructure of PLM. Design software companies have become so significant in our lives that it is impossible to imagine a modern economy without them. Over the last 20 years, a few large players have dominated this space, which is now considered as a very profitable market with high barriers to entry.
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