Everyone Knows the ‘Titanic’ Was an Unsinkable Ship

I Famous Past Expectations (Not updated – this is identical to the part in the Third Time Line)

So just playing the devil’s advocate: everyone knows the ‘Titanic’ was an unsinkable ship. That was its design and everybody was sure about that. In retrospect, there are many interesting claims by experts and specialists that turned out to be way off. Here is a selective list of them, illustrating the absurdity of predictions of experts of their time, in hindsight, starting in the 4th century BC.

• “The seat of the soul and the control of voluntary movement –in fact, of the nervous functions in general- are to be sought in the heart. The brain is an organ of minor importance. Aristotle, De motu animalium, 4th century BC *9) • According to the Maya Calendar the next great event of a certain nature will occur at December 21th, 2012. Popular expectations around this event ar that it will be: the end of this creation, the next pole shift or, the end of history and events as "novel" as the origin of life on Earth, which we could not possibly imagine. Other, more mundane speculations involve a worldwide catastrophe, such as a pole shift. 36 BCE http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoamerican_Long_Count_calendar • “Bees are generated from decomposed veal.”St. Isedore of Seville (Spanish prelate and scholar) 7th Century AD *9) • “If the motion of the earth was circular, it would be violent and contrary to nature, and could not be eternal, since… nothing violent is eternal…. It follows, therefore, that the earth is not moved with a circular motion. (st. Thomas of Aquinas (Commentario in libros Aristotelis de caeclo et mundo c.) 1270 *10) • "..so many centuries after the Creation it is unlikely that anyone could find hitherto unknown lands of any value." - committee advising Ferdinand and Isabella regarding Columbus' proposal, 1486, *3) • “Animals, which move, have limbs and muscles: the earth has no limbs and muscles, hence it does not move. “Scipio Chiaramont (Prof. of Philosophy and Mathematics at the University of Pisa, 1633 *10) • “A diamond, which is the hardest of stone, not yielding unto steel, emery or any other thing, is yet made by the blood of goats” Sir Thoams Browne (British physician) 17th Century A.D. *9) • “[J.S. Bach’s] compositions are deprived of beauty, of harmony and of clarity of melody.“ John Adolph Scheide, German composer, musician and music critic, 14/4/1737 *9) • “The population is constant in size and will remain so right up to the end of mankind.” ‘Population’ in L’encyclopédie, 1756 *9) • Four or five frigates will do the business without any military force. British prime minister Lord North, on dealing with the rebellious American colonies, 1774. • “It is entirely impossible for man to rise into the air and float there.” Joseph de Lalande, Member of the French Academy, May 18, 1782 about ballooning *9) • “It is quite impossible that the bobble organs of human speech could be replaced by ignoble, senseless metal.”Jean Bouillaud, member of the French Academy of Sciences, comment before viewing a demonstration of Thomas Edison’s phonograph. 1787 *9) • For fear people would laugh.” Conductor of Beethoven’s skipping the first part of the First Symphony. 1801 *9) • “What, Sir? Would you make a ship sail against the wind and currents by lighting a bonfire under her deck. I pray to excuse me. I have no time to listen to such nonsense.” 1805 Napoleon Bonaparte *9) (And he was not the only one.) • "I would sooner believe that two Yankee professors lied, than that stones fell from the sky" - Thomas Jefferson, 1807 on hearing an eyewitness report of falling meteorites. *3) • I would say that this does not belong to the art which I am in the habit of considering music. A Oulibicheff, reviewing Beethoven's Fifth Symphony 1808. *13) • What can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out of locomotives travelling twice as fast as stagecoaches? (The Quarterly Review, England (March 1825)*1) • “[A] physicist who professed such ideas was unworthy to teach science. “German Minister of Education, reacting to Professor George Simon Ohm’s discovery of mathematical relationship between the intensity of electric currents and the resistance of circuits through which they pass. 1827 *9) • “It may be safely asserted…that population, when unchecked, increases in geometrical progression of such a nature as to double itself every twenty-five years.”Thomas Robert Malthus (British economist and demographer) in A summary View of the Principle of Population, 1830 *9) • - ../../1830: In his "Cours de philosophie positive" (a six volume piece of work, published between 1830 and 1842), Auguste Comte said that we would never know anything about its composition, because it was unbelievable to remotely determine its chemical composition. (Googled after a reference on pg173 of The Black Swan, The Impact of the Highly Improbable”” ; Nassim Nicholas Taleb; 2007) • Rail travel at high speed is not possible, because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia. Dr Dionysius Lardner (1793-1859), professor of Natural Philosophy and Astronomy, University College London. ± 1833 *13)) • If Beethoven's Seventh Symphony is not by some means abridged, it will soon fall into disuse. Philip Hale, Boston Music Critic, 1837. *13) • “Men might as well project a voyage to the Moon as attempt to employ steam navigation against the stormy North Atlantic Ocean.” (Dr. Dionysus Lardner (1838) Professor of Natural Philosophy and Astronomy, University College, London,*1)) • The abolishment of pain in surgery is a chimera. It is absurd to go on seeking it. . . . Knife and pain are two words in surgery that must forever be associated in the consciousness of the patient. (Dr. Alfred Velpeau (1839) French surgeon,*1)) • “Nothing could be more anti-biblical than letting women vote.”Harper's Magazine, Editorial November 1953 *9) • “He [Victor Berlioz] does not know how to write.”Pierre Scudo, French music critic 1852 *9) PM Suimilar negative comments were made for Johannes Brahms, Frederic Chopin, Wolfgang Amadeus Mozrt, Jacques Offenbach, Igor Stravinsky, Peter Ilyich Tchaikovsky, Giuseppe Verdi, Richard Wagner • The Suez Canal: “A most futile attempt and totally impossible to be carried out.” Benjamin Disraeli (British chancellor); 1858 *9) Similar statements came from other (former) government officials, a King, an egyptologists, an explorer, a scientific journal. • "Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy." - Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859. *3) • Lt. Joseph Ives after visiting the Grand Canyon in 1861: “Ours has been the first, and doubtless to be the last, to visit this profitless locality.”*6) • “I am tired of all this thing called science…. We have spent millions in that sort of thing for at last few years, and it is time it should be stopped.” Siman Cameron, US Senator for Pennsylvania, demanding that the funding of the Smithsonian Institute be cut off, 1861 *9) • They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance - Last words of Gen. John Sedgwick, spoken as he looked out over the parapet at enemy lines during the Battle of Spotsylvania Court House in 1864. *13) • No one will pay good money to get from Berlin to Potsdam in one hour when he can ride his horse there in one day for free. King William I of Prussia, on hearing of the invention of trains, 1864. *13) • “Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit the voice over wires and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.” (Editorial in the Boston Post (1865),*1)) • "I see no good reasons why the views given in this volume should shock the religious sensibilities of anyone." -- Charles Darwin, The Origin Of Species, 1869. *12) • "Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction." - Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872 *7) • "The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon." - Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873.*3) • "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." - Western Union internal memo, 1876. (Note, this might be a hoax and the memo a forgery.) *3) • "The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys." -- Sir William Preece, chief engineer of the British Post Office, 1876. *12) • [Telephone} It's a great invention but who would want to use it anyway? Rutherford B. Hayes, U.S. President, after a demonstration of Alexander Bell's telephone, 1877. *13)) • “When the Paris Exhibition closes electric light will close with it and no more be heard of.” (Erasmus Wilson (1878) Professor at Oxford University,*1)) • Light bulb good enough for our transatlantic friends ... but unworthy of the attention of practical or scientific men. British Parliamentary Committee, referring to Edison’s light bulb, 1878. *13)) • “[Edison’s ideas are] good enough for ou transatlantic friends … but unworthy of the attention of practical and scientific men.” Report of a committee set up by the British Parliament to look into Edison’s work on the incandescent lamp. After viewing the demo he pronounced it a fake and attributed the demo to ‘ventriloquism’. 30/9/1878 *9) • Light bulb Such startling announcements as these should be deprecated as being unworthy of science and mischievous to its true progress. William Siemens, on Edison's light bulb, 1880. *13)) • Light bulb; Everyone acquainted with the subject will recognize it as a conspicuous failure. Henry Morton, president of the Stevens Institute of Technology, on Edison's light bulb, 1880. *13)) • "Such startling announcements as these should be deprecated as being unworthy of science and mischievous to to its true progress" – Sir William Siemens, 1880, on Edison's announcement of a successful light bulb.*3) • “[T]he phonograph… is not of any practical value.”Thomas Alva Edison, inventor of the phonograph, remark to his assistant Sam Insull c.1880 *9) • In 1883 Lord Kelvin, president of the Royal Society and no mean scientist himself, predicted that "X rays will prove to be a hoax." *2) • Thomas Edison thought alternating current would be a waste of time. (±1885) *2) • When the Paris Exhibition closes electric light will close with it and no more be heard of. (Erasmus Wilson (1878) Professor at Oxford University) *1) • "We are probably nearing the limit of all we can know about astronomy." - Simon Newcomb, astronomer, 1888,*3) • "Fooling around with alternating current is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever." - Thomas Edison, 1889. *3) • I'm sorry, Mr Kipling, but you just don't know how to use the English language. The San Francisco Examiner, rejecting a submission by Rudyard Kipling in 1889. *13) • “[The populace will be} so educated and refined [that] the confinement and punishment of criminals will occupy but little of the thought and time of the men of 1993.” Terence V. Powderly (head of the Knights of Labour, prediction on the eve of the World’s Columbian exposition in Chicago, 1893. *9) • “I do not believe that John Fulton’s invention of the paddle wheel will ever be improved on for inland navigation.” 1893 Alfred van Santvoord, shipping expert *9) • ”The railwaty and the steamship will be as obsolete as a stagecoach. It will be as common for the citizen to call for his dirigle balloon as it is now for him to call for his buggy or his boots.”John J. Ingalls, Kansas political leader in response to the question “What will be the state of transportation in the 1990s?.” 1893 *9) • No, it will make war impossible. Hudson Maxim, inventor of the machine gun, in response to the question "Will this gun not make war more terrible?" from Havelock Ellis, an English scientist, 1893. *13) • "The more important fundamental laws and facts of physical science have all been discovered, and these are now so firmly established that the possibility of their ever being supplanted in consequence of new discoveries is exceedingly remote.... Our future discoveries must be looked for in the sixth place of decimals." - physicist Albert. A. Michelson, 1894, *3) • "Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." - Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895. *3)\ • "It is apparent to me that the possibilities of the aeroplane, which two or three years ago were thought to hold the solution to the [flying machine] problem, have been exhausted, and that we must turn elsewhere." - Thomas Edison, 1895 *7) • "It is apparent to me that the possibilities of the aeroplane, which two or three years ago were thought to hold the solution to the [flying machine] problem, have been exhausted, and that we must turn elsewhere." - Thomas Edison, 1895, *3) • It doesn't matter what he does, he will never amount to anything. Albert Einstein's teacher to his father, 1895 *13) • “[My].. invention… can be exploited for a certain time as a scientific curiosity , but apart from that it has no commercial value whatsoever”. August Lumière 1895 *9) • Radio has no future (Lord Kelvin, ca. 1897),*1) • "Everything that can be invented, has been invented," announced Charles H. Duell, commissioner of the U.S. Patents Office, in 1899. *2) • The ordinary 'horseless carriage' is at present a luxury for the wealthy; and although its price will probably fall in the future, it will never, of course, come into as common use as the bicycle. Literary Digest, 1899. *13)) • “[Phrenology] will prove to be the true science of the mind. Its practical uses in education, in self-discipline, in reformatory treatment of criminals, and in the remedial treatment of the insane, will give it one of the highest places in the hierarchy of the sciences. Alfred Russel Wallace, British biologist and co-discoverer of evolution, 1899 *9) • “Paul may have the genius of a great painter, but he never had the persistence to become one.” Emile Zola, French novelist, c. 1900 *9) PM Similar negative comments were made about Edgar Degas, Paul Gaugin, Eduard Manet, Henri Matisse, Pablo Picasso, Camille Pissaro, Rembrandt van Rijn, Pierre Auguste Renoir, Titian, Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec, • “X-rays are a hoax.” Lord Kelvin c.1900 *9) • There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now; All that remains is more and more precise measurement. Lord Kelvin, speaking to the British Association for the Advancement of Science, 1900. *13) • “A hundred years from now it is very likely that [of Mark Twain’s works] ‘The Jumping Frog’ alone will be remembered.“ Harry Thurstone Pec, January 1901 *9) • “Man will not fly for fifty years.” 1901 Wilbur Wright to his brother Orville *9) • I must confess that my imagination refuses to see any sort of submarine doing anything but suffocating its crew and floundering at sea. H.G. Wells, British novelist, in 1901. *13)) • “It is useless to pretend that they [Youth and Heart of Darkness] can be very widely read.”Joseph Conrad 10/12/2/1902 *9) • “My figures coincide in fixing 1950 as the year when the world must go smash.” Henry Admas, 1903. *9) • “The horse is here to stay; but the auto mobile is only a novelty – a fad.” The President of the Michigan Savings Bank, advising Horace Rackham (Henry Ford’s lawyer) not to invest in the Ford Motor company), 1903 *9) • The invention of aircraft will make war impossible in the future. George Gissing, 1903. *13) • I”[Air planes will be used in sport, but they are not to be thought of as commercial carriers.” 1904 Actave Chanute, civil engineer and aviation pioneer *9) • Air planes are interesting toys but of no military value. Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Supérieure de Guerre, 1904. *13)) • Sensible and responsible women do not want to vote. Grover Cleveland, U.S. President, 1905. *13) • "The demonstration that no possible combination of known substances, known forms of machinery, and known forms of force can be united in a practicable machine by which men shall fly for long distances through the air, seems to the writer as complete as it is possible for the demonstration of any physical fact to be." - astronomer S. Newcomb, 1906, *3)” • “A popular fallacy is to suppose that … flying machines could be used to drop dynamite on an enemy in time of war. “William Henry Pickering (American astronomer at Harvard College Observatory), 1908 *9) • “That the auto mobile has practically reached the limit of its development is suggested by the fact that during the past year no improvements of a radical nature have been introduced. (Scientific American, Jan. 2, 1909.*1)) • “In 15 years, more electricity will be sold for electric vehicles than for light.”Thomas Edison 1910 *9) • “To affirm that the aeroplane is going to ‘revolutionize’ navel warfare of the future is to be guilty of the wildest exaggeration.” Scientific American July, 16th, 1910 *9) • “Make no mistake, this weapon [the machine gun in warfare] will change absolutely nothing.” 1910 French Director General of Infantry to the French Parliament *9) • "Air planes are interesting toys but of no military value." - Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Supéieure de Guerre. 1911 *4) • Mr. Franklin, vice-president of the International Mecantile Marine, which controls the White Star Line, issued in New York yesterday the following statement: “We are perfectly satisfied that the Titanic is unsinkable. We are absolutely certain that she is able to withstand any damage. She may be down by the head, but would float indefinitely in that condition.” (Daily Mail, London, England, April 16, 1912; www.lva.lib.va.us/whoweare/exhibits/titanic/new/unsink.htm) • The coming of the wireless era will make war impossible, because it will make war ridiculous. Guglielmo Marconi, inventor of the radio, Technical World Magazine, October, 1912, page 145. *13) • Flight by machines heavier than air is not practical (sic) and insignificant, if not utterly impossible. Simon Newcomb; The Wright Brothers flew at Kittyhawk 18 months later. Newcomb was not impressed. *13)) • “Over cities… the aerial sentry or policemen will be found. A thousand aroplanes flying to the opera must be kept inline and each allowed to alight upon the roof of the auditorium in its proper turn”. Waldemar Kaempfert (managing editor of Scientific American in ‘Aircraft and the future’ 1913 *9) • I can accept the theory of relativity as little as I can accept the existence of atoms and other such dogmas.” Ernst Mach, professor of Physics at the University of Vienna, 1913 *9) • “Most improbable and more likely one of Jule Verne’s stories.” 1914 Sir Arthur Compton Dombile (British admiral) commenting on Sir Conan Doyle’s warning for England’s susceptibility to a submarine blockade by a hostile nation. *9) • You will be home before the leaves have fallen from the trees. Kaiser Wilhelm, to the German troops, August 1914. *13) • "Caterpillar land ships are idiotic and useless. Those officers and men are wasting their time and are not pulling their proper weight in the war" - Fourth Lord of the British Admiralty, 1915, in regards to use of tanks in war. *3) • The idea that cavalry will be replaced by these iron coaches is absurd. It is little short of treasonous. Comment of Aide-de-camp to Field Marshal Haig, at tank demonstration, 1916. *13)) • “Cinema is little more than a fad. It’s canned drama. What audiences really want to see is flesh and blood on the stage. “Charlie Chaplin, 1916 *9) • Taking the best left-handed pitcher in baseball and converting him into a right fielder is one of the dumbest things I ever heard. Tris Speaker, baseball expert, talking about Babe Ruth, 1919. *13) • Franklin Delano Roosevelt once predicted, when he was Assistant Secretary of the Navy (±1922), that air planes would never be useful in battle against a fleet of ships. *2) • “It is highly unlikely that a air plane, or a fleet of them, could ever sink a fleet of Navy vessels under battle conditions. “ Franklin D. Roosevelt, Assistant Secretary of the Navy, 1922, *9) • "The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" - David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s. • "Professor Goddard does not know the relation between action and reaction and the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react. He seems to lack the basic knowledge ladled out daily in high schools." - 1921 New York Times editorial about Robert Goddard's revolutionary rocket work. *3) • “The radfio craze… will die out in time.” Thomas Edison, 1922. *9) • The foolish idea of shooting at the moon is an example of the absurd length to which vicious specialization will carry scientists working in thought-tight compartments. (A.W. Bickerton (1926) Professor of Physics and Chemistry, Canterbury College, New Zealand,*1)) • "All a trick." "A Mere Mountebank." "Absolute swindler." "Doesn't know what he's about." "What's the good of it?" "What useful purpose will it serve?" - Members of Britain's Royal Society, 1926, after a demonstration of television. *3) • While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially I consider it an impossibility, a development of which we need waste little time dreaming. (Lee DeForest, 1926 (American radio pioneer),*1)) • To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the controlling gravitational field of the moon where the passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to earth - all that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say that such a man-made voyage will never occur regardless of all future advances. Lee DeForest, American radio pioneer and inventor of the vacuum tube, in 1926 *13)) • “This fellow [Charles Lindbergh] will never make it. He ‘s doomed. 1927 Harry Guggenheim after studying Lindbergh’s plane ‘Spirit of Saint Louis’. *9) • "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" - H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927. *3) • “Try another profession. Any other.” Head Instructor of the John Murray Anderson Drama School, giving professional advice to would-be actress Lucile Ball 1927 *9) PM Similar negative comments were made for other celebrity actors like: Joan Bennett, Maurice chevalier, Bette Davis, Clint Eastwood, Burt Reynolds, Clark Gable, Marilyn Monroe, Mary Pickford, oh and Ronald Reagan • “It can be predicted with all security that in fifty years light will cost one fiftyst of its present price, and in all the big cities there will be no such things as night.”JBS Haldane (quoted 3-2-1927 *9) • “The poorhouse is vanishing form among us. Given a chance to go forward with the policies of the last eight years , we shall soon….be in sight of the day when poverty will be banished from the nation.” Herbert Hoover, Republican Candidate for US President 1928) *9) • “Talking films are a very interesting invention, but I do not believe that they will remain long in fashion. First of all, perfect synchronisation between sound and image is absolutely impossible, and, second, cinema cannot, and must not, become theatre. “Louis-Jean Lumière 1928 *9) • “Can’t act. Can’t sing. Balding. Can dance a little.” MGM Executive, reacting to Fred Astaire’s screen test 1928 *9) • “By 1940 the relativity theory will be considered a joke.” George Francis Gilette (American engineer and writer), 1929 *9) • "Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." - Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929.*3) • “Einstein has not a logical mind.” Jeremiah J. Callahan, President of Duquesne University, 1931 *9) • “[By 1950] there will be work for all.” National Education Association, quoted in “What shall We Be like in 1950?.”, The Literacy Digest, January 10, 1931 *9) • “Crime will be virtually abolished [before 1950] by transferring to the preventive process of school and education the problems of conduct which police, courts and prisons now seek to remedy when it is too late. “National Education Association, quoted in “What shall We Be like in 1950?.”, The Literacy Digest, January 10, 1931 *9) • “Talking pictures will [by 1941] take the place of the theatre as we know it today.”Norman Bel Geddes, January 1931 *9) • There is not the slightest indication that [nuclear energy] will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will. (Albert Einstein, 1932.*1)) Similar statements were made by other physicists and chemists like Dalton (1803), Millikan (1823) and Rutherford (1933). *9) • A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 247, a twin engine plane that carried ten people. “There will never be a bigger plane built.”*6), 1932 • “Australia will [by 1982] be abandoned to the Japanese by its white inhabitants, who will return to an England capable of supporting by agriculture twice its present population.”Lewis Mumford, US social philosopher in The World Fifty Years from Now; in The Forum( Dec. 1932) *9) • “Hitler’s influence is waning so fast that the Government is no longer afraid of the growth of the Nazi movement”William c. Bullitt (American diplomat) in letter to president Franklin Delano Roosevelt, 1932 *9) Note; many were this opinion onwards 1924 (!) and throughout WO-II. Faulty expectations were voiced as was the cause in other dealings such as with Cuba-Castro, Vietnam (both South and North), Japan, Indo China-Ho Chi Minh, Lebanon, Gulf, Panama and many other regions/countries/leaders/defences (e.g. the French Maginot line, the Dutch Water Line)/conflict durations (short time conflicts lasted a decade or more). • By the year 1982 the graduated income tax will have practically abolished major differences in wealth. Irwin Edman, professor of philosophy Columbia University, 1932. *13) • "The energy produced by the atom is a very poor kind of thing. Anyone who expects a of power from the transformation of these atoms is talking moonshine" - Ernst Rutherford, 1933, *3) • “You’ve bought yourself a cripple.”Bill Terry (Manager of the New York Giants) commenting George Weiss’ purchase of Joe DiMaggio (who, injured his left knee a year earlier). 1935 *9) Similar negative comments wer made about John Elway (quarer back), Willy Mays, Phil Rizzuto, Jacky Robinson, Babe Ruth (as he wanted to change from pitcher to outfielder, as outfielder Ruth hit 714 major league home rubs (a record that stood for over 40 years)), Tom Seaver, Ted Williams, Jim Jeffries before knocking out Bob Fitzsimmons who put on 40 pounds more on the scale, • Sure-fire rubbish. Lawrence Gilman, reviewing Porgy and Bess by George Gershwin in the New York Herald Tribune, 1935. *13) • “A period novel! About the Civil Wart! Who needs the Civil War now –who cares?”, Editor Herbert R. Mayes turning down a prepublication offer to serializes Margerat Mitchell’s novel Gone with the Wind 1936 *9) PM Similar negative comments were made about: Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Snow White, Star Wars, Titanic (1997’s version), The Wizard of Oz (1939) • "By 1960 work will be limited to three hours a day." John Langdon-Davies (British journalist and Fellow of the Royal Anthropological Institute), A short History of the Future, 1936 *9) • “Democracy will be dead by 1950”. John Langdon-Davies (Britisch Journalist and Fellow of the Royal Anthropological Institute) in A short History of the Future, 1936. *9) • A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth's atmosphere. New York Times, 1936. *13)) • "The whole procedure [of shooting rockets into space]...presents difficulties of so fundamental a nature, that we are forced to dismiss the notion as essentially impracticable, in spite of the author's insistent appeal to put aside prejudice and to recollect the supposed impossibility of heavier-than-air flight before it was actually accomplished." Richard van der Riet Wooley, British astronomer, reviewing P.E. Cleator's "Rockets in Space", Nature, March 14, 1936, *3) • “Television won’t matter in your lifetime or mine”. Rex Lambert 1936. *9) • “He ‘s passé. Nobody cares about Mickey (Mouse) any more. There are whole batches of Mickeys we just can’t give away. I think we should phase him out. Roy Disney (Walt Disney’s brother) 1937 *9) • “It is not possible … to concentrate enough military planes with military loads over a modern city to destroy that city.”Colonel John W. Thomason (Marine Corps), Jr. 1937 *9) • This is the second time in our history that there has come back from Germany to Downing Street peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. Neville Chamberlain, British Prime Minister, September 30th, 1938. *13) • Atomic energy might be as good as our present-day explosives, but it is unlikely to produce anything very much more dangerous. Winston Churchill, First Lord of the Admiralty, then soon-to-be British Prime Minister, 1939. *13)) • A rocket too far-fetched to be considered. Editor of Scientific American, in a letter to Robert Goddard about Goddard's idea of a rocket-accelerated air plane bomb, 1940 (German V2 missiles came down on London 3 years later). *13)) • U.S. Secretary of Navy, December 4, 1941: “No matter what happens, the U.S. Navy is not going to be caught napping.”*6) • "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." - Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 [ debunked in "The Maverick and His Machine"] *3) • The Americans are good about making fancy cars and refrigerators, but that doesn’t mean they are any good at making aircraft. They are bluffing. They are excellent at bluffing. Hermann Goering, Commander-in-Chief of the Luftwaffe, 1942. *13) • “There is not much demand for animal stories in the USA.”, The Dial Press, rejecting George Orwell’s offer of the American rights to Animal Farm, 1944 *9) • You better get secretarial work or get married. Emmeline Snively, director of the Blue Book Modelling Modelling Agency, advising would-be model Marilyn Monroe in 1944. *13) • Admiral William Leahy, U.S. Atomic Bomb Project: “The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives.”.*6) & *9) 1945 • Television won't last because people will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night. Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, 20th Century Fox, 1946. *13)) • “Among the really difficult problems of the world, the Arab-Israel conflict is one of the simplist and most manageable.”Walter Lipmann, 27/4/1948 *9) • Television won't last. It's a flash in the pan. Mary Somerville, pioneer of radio educational broadcasts, 1948. *13)) • Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 19,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps only weigh 1.5 tons. (Popular Mechanics, March 1949.*1)) • It would appear that we have reached the limits of what it is possible to achieve with computer technology, although one should be careful with such statements, as they tend to sound pretty silly in 5 years. [John von Neumann (1949)] *5) • “The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; the average American family hasn't time for it.” [New York Times, 1949] *5) • “The dangers of atomic war are overrated. It would be hard on little, concentrated countries like England. In the United States we have lots of space.” Colonel Robert Rutherford McCormick (Publisher of the Chicago Tribune), 1950 *9) • [George Orwell’s] “1984 is a failure.”Laurence Brander (British literary scholar and critic 1954 *9) • If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one. W.C. Heuper, National Cancer Institute, 1954. *13) • It will be gone by June. Variety, passing judgement on rock 'n roll in 1955. *13) • “Nuclear power vacuum cleaner will probably be a reality in 10 years. “ Albert Lewyt, President of Lewyt Corporation, 6/6/1955 *9) • “the A[tom]boiler for home use could be produced today. The system would heat and cool a home, provide unlimited household hot water, and melt the snow from the side walks and driveways. All that could be done for six years on a single charge of fissionable material costing about $300.”Robert E. Ferry, Boiler and Radiator manufacturer, 1955 *9) • “I do not hesitate to forecast that atomic batteries will be commonplace long before 1980. It can be taken for granted that before 1980 ships, air crafts, locomotives and even auto mobiles will be atomically fuelled. David Sarnoff, Chair of the Board of the radio Corporation of America, 1955 *9) • “The big question in the music business today is, ‘how long will it [rock ’n roll] last? It is our guess that it won’t. ” Cashbox 1955 *9) • “The prison teachers and wardens will [by 1976] be the highest paid and most skilled part of our educational system. The principal of a reformatory will rank as high as a college president”. Morris Ernst (American lawyer, writer and visionary (Utopia 1955). *9) • The basic questions of design, material and shielding, in combining a nuclear reactor with a home boiler and cooling unit, no longer are problems... The system would heat and cool a home, provide unlimited household hot water, and melt the snow from side walks and driveways. All that could be done for six years on a single charge of fissionable material costing about $300. Robert Ferry, executive of the U.S. Institute of Boiler and Radiator Manufacturers, 1955. *13)) • "Space travel is utter bilge!" -Sir Richard Van Der Riet Wolley, astronomer,*3), 1956 • “A few decades hence, energy may be free, just like the un metered air.”John von Neumann (Fermi-awarded American Scientist) 1956 *9) • A short-lived satirical pulp. Time magazine, writing off Mad magazine in 1956. *13) • “I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year.” (The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.*1) • “[Man will never reach the moon] regardless of all future scientific advances.”Dr. Lee DeForest (inventor of the audition tube) in The New York Times, Feb 25th, 1957 *9) • "Space travel is bunk" -Sir Harold Spencer Jones, Astronomer Royal of Britain, 1957, two weeks before the launch of Sputnik,*3) • We will bury you. Nikita Kruschev, Soviet Premier, predicting Soviet communism will win over U.S. capitalism, 1958. *13) • “How can a guy this politically immature seriously expect to be president ?” Franklin D. Roosevelt, assessing John F Kennedy, 1959, *9) • “In all likelihood world inflation is over.”managing Director of the World Monetary Fund (1959 *10) • “[Before man reaches the moon] your mail will be delivered within hours form New York to California, to England, to India by guided missiles… We stand on the threshold of rocket mail.” Athur E. Summerfield (U.S. Postmaster General . Jan. 23, 1959 *9) • We stand on the threshold of rocket mail. U.S. postmaster general Arthur Summerfield, in 1959. *13)) • The world potential market for copying machines is 5000 at most. IBM, to the eventual founders of Xerox, saying the photocopier had no market large enough to justify production, 1959. *13) • "There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the Unided States." -T. Craven, FCC Commissioner, 1961*3) • "We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." - Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962, *3) Similar negative comments were made about Buddy Holly, Led Zeppelin, John Lennon, Elvis Presley, the Rolling Stones. • Transmission of documents via telephone wires is possible in principle, but the apparatus required is so expensive that it will never become a practical proposition. Dennis Gabor, British physicist and author of Inventing the Future, 1962. *13)) • Reagan doesn’t have that presidential look. United Artists Executive, rejecting Ronald Reagan as lead in 1964 film The Best Man. *13) • The Beatles are not merely awful—I would consider it sacrilegious to say anything less than that they are god awful. They are so unbelievably horrible, so appallingly unmusical, so dogmatically insensitive to the magic of the art, that they qualify as crowned heads of anti-music, even as the imposter popes went down in history as 'anti-popes'. William F. Buckley, 1964. *13) • "The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a 'C,' the idea must be feasible." - A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith's 1965 paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. (Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.), *3) • [By 1985], machines [computers] will be capable of doing any work Man can do. Herbert A. Simon, of Carnegie Mellon University, one of the founders of the field of artificial intelligence – speaking in 1965. *13)) • There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States. T. Craven, FCC Commissioner (USA), in 1961 (the first commercial communications satellite went into service in 1965). • Here's Coco Channel on the miniskirt, in 1966: "It's a bad joke that won't last. Not with winter coming.",*2) • The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a 'C', the idea must be feasible. A Yale University management professor in response to a college assignment by Fred Smith proposing a reliable overnight delivery service, in 1966. Smith would later go on to found Federal Express Corp. *13) • Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop—because women like to get out of the house, like to handle merchandise, like to be able to change their minds. Time, 1966, in one sentence writing off e-commerce long before anyone had ever heard of it. *13) • “By the turn of the century, if anything remains less or more unchanged it will be the rol of women.” Sociologist David Riesman, 1967. *9) • In 1967, U.S. Surgeon General William H. Stewart told a White House gathering of health officers that “it was time to close the book on infectious diseases and shift all national attention (and dollars) to what he termed ‘the New Dimensions’ of health: chronic diseases” (Garrett, 1994; Stewart, 1967). In the ensuing years, Americans became intimately acquainted with a range of emerging infections including Legionnaire’s disease, toxic shock syndrome, AIDS, Lyme disease, West Nile encephalitis, and SARS. (http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php? record_id=11669&page=1) • If anything remains more or less unchanged, it will be the role of women. David Riesman, conservative American social scientist, 1967. *13) • “But what the hell is it good for?” Robert Lloyd. (Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip,*1)) & *9) • Business Week, August 2, 1968: With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big slice of the US market. *6) • No woman in my time will be Prime Minister or Chancellor or Foreign Secretary-not the top jobs. Anyway, I wouldn’t want to be Prime Minister, you would have to give yourself 100 per cent. [Margaret Thatcher The Sunday Telegraph, 26/10/1969] *5), *9) (4/5/1979, she became Prime Minister) • "That Professor Goddard with his 'chair' in Clark College and the countenancing of the Smithsonian Institution does not know the relation of action to reaction, and of the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react--to say that would be absurd. Of course, he only seems to lack the knowledge ladled out daily in high schools." -- 1921 New York Times editorial about Robert Goddard's revolutionary rocket work. The remark was retracted in the July 17, 1969 issue. *12) • We can close the books on infectious diseases. Surgeon General of the United States William H. Stewart, 1969; speaking to the U.S. Congress – cited in The Killers Within: The Deadly Rise Of Drug-Resistant Bacteria by Mark J. Plotkin and Michael Shnayerson, 2003, ISBN 0316735663. *13)) • And for the tourist who really wants to get away from it all, safaris in Vietnam Newsweek, predicting popular holidays for the late 1960s. *13) • “[Your book] had no reader interest.”W.H. Allen and Company, rejecting his thriller: ‘The Day of the Jackal’, April 1970 *9) • “Don’t ask me to make diplomatic relations with… [Israel]. Never. Never.” Anwar el- Sadat, President of Egypt, 1970 *9) • “Jonathan Livingston Seagull will never make it as a paperback”, James Galton rejecting the paperback rights to Richard Bach’s best selling novel, 1972 *9) • I would sooner believe that two Yankee professors lied, than that stones fell from the sky. Thomas Jefferson, U.S. President, on hearing reports of meteorites, 1790s(?).*13) • “By 1980 we will be self-sufficient will not need to rely on foreign enemies …uh, energy.” Richard Nixon 1973 (In 1980 37.37% of US oil was produced in foreign countries). *9) • “The thought of being President frightens me. I do not think I want the job.” Ronald Reagan (Govenor of California) 1973 *9) • Margaret Thatcher, 1974: “It will be years--not in my time--before a woman will become Prime Minister”.*6) *12) • "A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make." - Response to Debbi Fields' idea of starting Mrs. Fields' Cookies. *3), ± 1975 and www.mrsfields.com • There is no need for any individual to have a computer in their home. (Ken Olson, 1977, President, Digital Equipment Corp., *1)) • “It is too early for a Polish pope.” Karol Wojtyla, Polish cardinal, two days before being elected; 14-10-1978 *9) • ‘Nobody can overthrow me. I have the support of 700.000 troops, all the workers, and most of the people. I have the power. “Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, Shah of Persia (present day Iran), quoted in The Washington Post, March 6, 1978 *9) • "640K ought to be enough for anybody." - Bill Gates, 1981,*3) • “Any realistic sense of the world today leaves it clear that there isn’t going to be any German reunification this century, nor probably in the lifetime of anyone who can read this.” Flora Lewis, foreign Affairs columnist, New York Times, 7 September 1984 *9) • “[People with AIDS] emit spores that have been known to cause birth defects.” William E. Dannemeyer (U.S. Representative for California) 1985. *10) • “Unionen er stendoed.“ [Statsminister Poul Schluter om EU, 1986] (Unions are stone dead) *5) • “Could we have a crash á la 1929? The flat answer is ‘no’”. dr. Pierre A Prechter interviewed by Business Week November 30, 1987 *9) • Read my lips: NO NEW TAXES. George H. W. Bush, 1988. *13) • ” Our indications are that the discovery will be relatively easy to make into usable technology for generating heat and power”. Drs. B. Stanley & Martin Fleischmann, in Science, March 31, 1989 *9) • “Even if polar ice caps melted, there would be no rise in ocean levels. “Rush Limbaugh, national radio talk host, June 19, 1992 *10) Note Dr. Donald Blankenstein (Universtiiy fo Texas, calculated a rise of 200 feet if the Antarctic melted. (New York Times, Feb. 23, 1993) • “Castro’s days are numbered.” George Bush (President of the USA), May 4, 1992. *9) • What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of post-war history, but the end of history as such... That is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalisation of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government. Francis Fukuyama, political philosopher, on the fall of the Berlin Wall in a 1992 book. *13) • The case is a loser. Johnnie Cochran, on soon-to-be client O.J.’s chances of winning, 1994. • “There will never be a market in selling stock over the internet” – David Komansky, Merrill Lynch Chairman & CEO, 1999; *8) • "If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can't do this." - Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3M "Post-It" Notepads. ( ±2000(?)) *3) • The last wrong prediction about the future has not been made yet! [Troels C. Petersen, 2001] *5); • "Iraq is a very wealthy country. Enormous oil reserves. They can finance, largely finance the reconstruction of their own country. And I have no doubt that they will." Richard Perle, chair, The Pentagon's Defence Policy Board, July 11, 2002 *10) • "The likely economic effects [of a war in Iraq] would be relatively small.... Under every plausible scenario, the negative effect will be quite small relative to the economic benefits." Lawrence Lindsey White House economic adviser September 16, 2002 *10) • "It is unimaginable that the United States would have to contribute hundreds of billions of dollars and highly unlikely that we would have to contribute even tens of billions of dollars." Kenneth Pollack former director for Persian Gulf affairs National Security Council September 2002 *10) • "The costs of any intervention would be very small." Glenn Hubbard White House economic adviser October 4, 2002 *10) • "Iraq has tremendous that belong to the Iraqi people. And so there are a variety of means that Iraq has to be able to shoulder much of the burden for their own reconstruction." Ari Fleischer White House press secretary February 18, 2003 *10) • "When it comes to reconstruction, before we turn to the American taxpayer, we will turn first to the resources of the Iraqi government and the international community." Donald Rumsfeld Secretary of Defence March 27, 2003 *10) • "There is a lot of money to pay for this that doesn't have to be US taxpayer money, and it starts with the assets of the Iraqi people. We are talking about a country that can really finance its own reconstruction and relatively soon." Paul Wolfowitz Deputy Secretary of Defence testifying before the defence subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee March 27, 2003 *10) • "The United States is very committed to helping Iraq recover from the conflict, but Iraq will not require sustained aid." Mitchell Daniels, director White House Office of Management and Budget April 21, 2003 *10) • "The allies [have contributed] $14 billion in direct aid." Dick Chenevice presidential debate with Democratic candidate John Edwards October 5, 2004 *10) Actually, only $13 billion was pledged, and on the date Cheney spoke only $1 billion had arrived. As of October 28, 2007, the National Priorities Project estimated that the share of Iraq War costs that had been borne by American taxpayers exceeded $463 billion. --C.C.&V.N. • Gerekend wordt op hooguit een beperkte stijging van de reële olieprijs in de periode 2000-2040. Dit komt overeen met de inschatting van het IEA van een verhoging van 20 dollar per vat in 2000 tot 29 dollar per vat in 2030 (in constante prijzen van 2000). IEA, World Economic Outlook 2002). In CPB Memorandum, 15 juni 2005; pg 19, 20.

*1) www.tfproject.org/tfp/showthread.php?s=&threadid=45487 *2) www.time.com/time/covers/1101041011/story.html *3) http://amasci.com/freenrg/laughed.html *4) www.quotationspage.com/quote/36890.html *5) www.nbi.dk/~petersen/Quotes/Blunders/blunders.html *6) www.heartquotes.net/Expert.html *7) http://amasci.com/freenrg/laughed.html *8) http://faculty.unlv.edu/phelan/BUS496/2006/BUS496_CS_Lect12.ppt) *9) The Expert Speaks, The Definitive Compendium of Authorative Misinformation, by Christopher Cerf and Vivtor Navasky, 1984 *10) www.thenation.com/doc/20080331/navasky_cerf (removed; *11) *11) www.medkb.com/Uwe/Forum.aspx/alternative/19878/Fombonne-s-autism-research-is- dangerously-inaccurate *12) http://rinkworks.com/said/predictions.shtml *13) http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Incorrect_predictions